DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
One wave of low pressure is passing south of us today, but a more important low pressure area will come at the region tonight into Tuesday. While the track of this low will be across the South Coast region or even just south of the region, with the strength of a ridge of high pressure over the southeastern US and a slight retreat of the arctic air that had leaked into the Northeast we now see the ability for it to warm up a little more above us as this system passes by. But, as we know, cold air is still in place here at the surface and is very often tough to dislodge, especially with a storm tracking as it is, instead of west of the area. So while it is cold enough for spotty and fairly insignificant mostly frozen precipitation today, once the main shield of moisture arrives tonight into Tuesday and it warms aloft for rain to be falling across the area, that rain will be freezing upon contact with the surface in a fair amount of the region due to below-freezing temperatures at ground level. The precise location of that freezing line during the event will determine who ends up with icing conditions and who escapes them. It’s a fairly safe bet that most if not all areas outside the I-95 belt will experience at least some icing, and areas that stay freezing rain for the duration will experience the most significant icing, with between 1/4 and 1/2 inch of ice accretion likely. The I-95 belt including Metro Boston and even Metro Providence initially will be more “on the line” and more vulnerable to areas that are icy and areas that are not because of marginal temperatures, while the coastal plain and especially the South Shore of MA and South Coast region will be least likely to experience any icing conditions. Please use utmost caution if you have to travel during this event. After this first messy bout of precipitation tapers off as the low pulls away later Tuesday, a clearing sky and quick temperature drop that night will lead to black ice formation on any untreated wet surfaces, including areas that had been above freezing and ice-free during the precipitation, so continued extreme caution walking or driving is a must from Tuesday night right into Wednesday, which will be a dry but cold day between storm systems. Yup, systems, because another one is heading in for Thursday into Friday, and this one, having more cold to work with at least initially, is bound to bring a little more snow with it to start out, arriving during Thursday afternoon and evening from southwest to northeast. But while the primary low pressure area responsible for this bout of unsettled weather has its eyes on a path northwest of here, high pressure in Canada will hold up a stop sign and the low will kind of “Jello” its way just south of New England, basically transferring its energy along a trough line where the border of the cold and warm air is, and re-emerge as a new low offshore which will then move away during Friday and Friday night. During this process once again we should see some warming aloft so that at least a portion of the region will experience sleet and freezing rain and/or rain (depending on temperature profile). For this system I’ll keep the forecast more generalized and then try to detail the precipitation set-up during the next couple of blog posts leading up to the event.
TODAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Cloudy. Occasional light snow/sleet likely, with freezing rain/rain possible. Minor snow/sleet accumulation possible. Light glazing of ice possible. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Increasing coverage of snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain evening, with additional minor snow/sleet accumulation mostly northwest of Boston, changing to freezing rain & rain overnight with significant glazing likely where temperatures are below freezing. Temperatures steady 27-34 evening, rising slightly overnight. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain coastal areas and freezing rain interior especially west and north of Boston morning, tapering off afternoon. Additional icing likely over interior locations. Highs 30-37 interior locations, coldest in valleys of north central MA and southern NH, 38-45 in coastal locations, mildest over Cape Cod, except briefly near 50 possible Nantucket. Wind E to N 5-15 MPH except may be briefly SE to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty Nantucket area.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 13-20. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow arriving southwest to northeast late day. Highs 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain likely, with greatest chance for frozen precipitation interior and north, greatest chance for freezing and/or liquid precipitation coast and south. Temperatures rise to 28-35. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Overcast with snow/sleet/ice/rain morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind E to N 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH afternoon.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
High pressure from Canada delivers dry but cold weather for the February 20-21 weekend. Disturbance from the west brings precipitation threat February 22-23 followed by fair and seasonably cold weather to end the period.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)
We may see a transition out of blocking into more of a west zonal pattern with a storm track bringing weaker systems over or north of the region. This would produce a couple risk of precipitation and some swings in temperature. This is a fairly low confidence forecast at this time.
https://stormhq.blog/2021/02/15/weekly-outlook-february-15-21-2021/?fbclid=IwAR0S71HdgUrSg9SeF17191WIOsDZDEZBrsanmeATnIKZ-jxLaGtFTwXYoDs
Thanks, TK. Any idea of starting time today? Much appreciated
Any time really. Patchy.
Steady by mid to late evening.
Thanks TK!
Mmm Jello! Thank you for sharing your thoughts, always look forward to reading your forecasts.
Had 8:30 dental appt in Hopkinton fir what I hope is a minor problem. There was fairly steady rain from Sutton into Upton. A bit of blue sky showing through thick clouds in Hopkinton. Temp a steady 30 throughout
Good morning and thank you TK.
Looking like a rain event here in the city.
For now holding at 32. More optimistic about the next event.
Which one is that as it’s getting confusing here , Thursday????
Thanks TK !
You know those occasional low level pushes of cold air into eastern Mass from coastal ME and NH. It shows up initially with temp drops in Beverly, Lawrence and Bedford, then eventually, Logan and the 128 belt are below freezing.
I think that’s a possibility here, especially when I see the dewpoints, especially those in southern Maine.
These lull you in too, cause they come mid event, after the locations I listed above get to 32F or a bit higher first.
Unless a formidable low center is passing west of our longitude, side with the cold air…
good rule to remember, thanks TK.
Thanks TK.
Greetings all from Sarasota!
At 2 am yesterday I did a completely irresponsible and wonderful thing and booked an overnight down here with Sammy. We haven’t traveled at all since 2019 and I enjoyed my first cocktail since covid beachfront last night. Risky and irresponsible yes but a mental health break that is doing wonders!!
So… our flight back is hypothetically tonight at 7 pm – arriving at Logan at 10 pm. Does the icing begin by 10 / should I start the winter travel dance of rebooking our flight etc or just roll?
Ps – i highly recommend irresponsibility!! It feels wonderful and warm – LOL!
Nice ! This sounds great !
Have fun book to come back on Wednesday for the mental break
Lol – I wish! That would be next level irresponsible as I work on Tues – sigh.
However I think this overnight put us in a mental space we haven’t been in since pre-covid – much needed!!
I also forgot to say – thank you TK!! One other huge huge thing for me is that I travel easier knowing I have a reliable forecast at the ready!!
Wishing you tons of fun and safe travels home
Thanks Vicki! Xoxo
So this is pretty much a rain situation in Boston . Is there a need to have the snow crew on duty tonight at the hospital??
With the potential for low-level cold they should be on standby at least.
Thanks
Thanks TK
With the exception of the 12z NAM Thursday looks to offer a good thump of snow before going over to a slop fest.
Thursday may be all snow or at least all frozen. We shall see.
Both the EURO and GFS showing a good thump of 3-6 inches of snow before a change over.
HRRR is simply NOT picking up existing precipitation. Something is wrong there. not initializing it and not showing it in hours 1,2,3 and 4. just NOT doing its job at all.
Thoughts for Boston tonight old Salty .
My feeling still is rain for boston. However, there is still
the possibility of sleet and/or Freezing rain at the outset, before flipping to all rain. Will be close, but my gut keeps saying rain. Monitoring temperatures very carefully.
My thermometer is currently reading 34. However, according to MesoWest site, Logan in at 30. SO I don’t understand that, unless my equipment is off.
We’ll see how it goes through the day and this evening.
Precip moving this way. My radarscope says it it sleet and/or freezing rain. We shall see when/if it gets here.
Keep me updated there please . Home for holiday . Will see if needed tonight
See what I can do. 🙂
We will be reporting at 10pm tonight I’m suspecting an easy shift
Thanks TK.
Thank you TK
Thanks, TK.
I think I’ll reschedule my appointment for tomorrow afternoon in Westborough…
Ice forecasts from around the dial: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuRyMV0WgAMq-ky?format=jpg&name=large
Snowfall forecasts from around the dial: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuRyXJyXYAA7iEB?format=jpg&name=large
Thanks Doc. IMHO, none of them know exactly what will happen and it is just an educated guess. 🙂
I love the arm popping out of the Connecticut River!
Beware any model solutions that try to warm it up too much or too far inland. The models always try to bring the warm air in too quickly, especially when there is snowcover, and they have been underestimating the cold air thus far. As I pointed out to TK already, the 12zNAM initialized 1-4 degrees too warm across most of the region, and all of the 00z models were similar.
Thanks SAK. I had a similar thought that in the past few storms they had warmer air move in too quickly which has led to spottier forecasts.
It’s been a bias in the models for several years, not just the last few storms.
Wise advice. Thank you sir.
Thank you to who ever recommended radar scope. It is awesome
The original recommendation came from TK.
I was just spreading his word.
I love radar scope. Thank you for your recommendation to me and TKs to you
What is the fee?
Thank You TK!
It’s raining here and 31.4 but surprisingly not freezing on surfaces here. I thought with the temps being sub freezing the rain would freeze on contact. The good news is that the temp has gone up 2 degrees in the last hour. Does that mean the cold air at the surface is being eroded more quickly than modeled? Perhaps some colder air will drain down at lower levels before the bulk of precipitation comes into play tonight? I don’t think so, where I am now is where I’ll stay I think.
Perhaps your thermometer is off by 0.7 degrees. What is the stated accuracy of your device? Just a thought. It should state somewhere that the accuracy is +- .5 degree or +- 1 degree etc.
Here is a little trivia. What is the one place in the USA that never seen snow?
Do you mean which state? Or do you mean a specific city or town. Have to be more clear.
If it is a city or town, then the only one I can come up with would be Key West, Florida. I KNOW Miami has seen snow as well
as LA.
Honolulu probably has never seen snow, but Hawaii has as it often snows up high on those volcanoes.
So what exactly do you mean?
Every single state in this country has seen snow somewhere within its borders.
state/territory
Puerto Rico
Every single state has had snow, but 5 (not 1) territories have not:
Puerto Rico
US Virgin Islands
American Samoa
Guam
Northern Mariana Islands
Thank You.
As far as I know its the Virgin islands and I forgot about Guam I forgot about Guam. the others have seen snow fall in the mtns including Puerto Rico.
The mountains of PR are not tall enough. The highest point on the island is only 4,388 feet. The record low temp for the island is only 38.
As for the others, they are all islands in the tropical Pacific both north and south of the equator with “mountains” that are 1000-2000 feet tall, and have never had snow.
Good question I’ll have to check. There is another personal weather station 1/4 mile down the street, different manufacturer than mine that is within .5 degrees of mine. What I may not be taking into consideration is the diurnal heating. I suppose if it stays at or marginally below freezing tonight that may make a difference. I just figured the ground would have been cold enough with days of sub freezing temps to allow it to freeze instantly on surfaces.
My Davis Vantage VUE temperature sensor is accurate to
+- 1 Degree F.
The Davis Vantage Pro Temperature Sensor is accurate to
+- .54 degree F.
For these reasons, I do not set my sensor to display 10th as they are meaningless. I set it for whole degree readings knowing that a temp of 32.5 will read 33 etc. 🙂
Interesting, Logan’s wind is NNW with temp 30, while
Beverly is 34 and Norwood is 34 as my house is also at 34.
FWIW, Portland ME is 27 and Portsmouth NH is at 28
A bit ago, had a brief plain ole RAIN shower here.
Unless some change occurs, I do not see how I see freezing rain here.
Inland, is a different story.
Yup a snooze fest tonight
Thank you, TK!
On my run it sprinkled (rain), but nothing froze on the surface. In fact, there were more puddles today (small ones) than in recent days. I find this curious as at the surface it must be at or below freezing. I expected to slip during my run, and I didn’t come close to doing so. Different story yesterday and the day before.
Mama Mia, I completely understand where you’re coming from regarding your trip. When I hadn’t seen my daughter in 12 months I wasn’t going to cancel her trip here due to the UK variant. I’m glad she and I decided to do the trip, because at this point any trip to the UK or vice versa is REALLY difficult. Nearly impossible, quite frankly, especially if I were to try and go there. Much more difficult than 2 months ago.
Obviously, safety and minimizing risk is important. But, traveling in and of itself is not the riskiest activity.
Texas dog sees snow for the first time, and he/she is VERY excited. https://twitter.com/Mike_Hixenbaugh/status/1361304093910786052
🙂 🙂 🙂
Hahahaha
Jpdave you excited about thurs/fri? LOL
Not really. As of now, doesn’t look like a big deal. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-6 or 4-8 inches tops. Will continue to monitor.
Nearly 2:30 PM
Portland 28
Portsmouth 28
Lawrence 30
Beverly 30
Bedford 30
Logan 30
Blue Hill 30
Norwood 34
And I am still sitting at 33. down from 34 not too long ago.
South Sutton is 32. Betting center is closer to 30
For some reason the news anchor on WBZ radio this afternoon keeps referring to Interstate 496. 😀
Where 495 is or where 146 is?
On the radio she keeps calling it Interstate 496.. referring to where the icing would be occurring most. She said at three different times. It is most definitely interstate 495. 😉
That is a daringly precise prediction! Interstate 496 is only 12 miles in length:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstate_496
I’m not a big fan of the WBZ radio forecasts & I am a daily listener for my commute into work
I was just chuckling because I-496 came up 3 times. There’s one in Michigan. 🙂
Obviously she meant 495. I think this anchor is new – don’t recall hearing her before.
North. I have radar scope ProTier 1 at 9.99/yr
Should have said pro tier 2 is 99.99/yr
Thanks!
Is there better snow potential for the Thursday/Friday event?
Absolutely!
Yes, but at this time does not look like a biggie. Something in the order of 3-6 or 4-8 inches or so. Probably closer to
5 or 6 inches.
Always subject to chnge.
Thanks TK.
Had a light glaze on the car this morning but since then, it’s been a mostly a dry day here in CT.
Temp is hovering around 33-34 degrees and it does not feel that cold outside at all. I’m sure the temp will fall a few degrees tonight and allow for a period of icing but shouldn’t be a big deal here. With this low tracking into western NY and no deep cold at the surface to scour away, this is shaping up to be mainly a plain rain event in CT, RI and eastern MA.
End of week looks like a different story and no surprise to see the 12z GFS finally succumbed to the Euro/CMC solution and now has the low tracking SE of us with precip remaining all snow/frozen in most areas. Nice thump of snow then a period of sleet and freezing rain. Thurs PM through Friday AM looks like the real mess.
The GFS & parallel caved on that erroneous west-of-us track right around the same time. I was hoping the newer version would pick up on it sooner – but no dice this time. ECMWF is going to be your winner on this one when looking at several days in advance.
UKMET has had it that way was well.
Down to 32 here, although it is probably still above freezing
at 32.3 or 32.4. 🙂 But a slow downward trend it is, so perhaps
we’ll have a brief period of ice here at the outset of the good stuff.
We have some very very light nuisance crap falling now. I believe
it to be plain ole drizzle.
But it could be snizzle. I can’t tell.
Drizzle snizzle? Jpdave is a rapper!
According to Meso West, Logan just dropped to 28 degrees as of
3:20 PM. Interesting.
If you go by the 18Z NAM, the main event starts as plain
RAIN in the coastal plain.
https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021021518/012/ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png
https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021021518/015/ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png
ditto 3KM NAM
https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2021021518/015/ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png
There are dewpoint depressions still to work with.
Yes, I am at 32 with DP 29.
Logan is at 29, dp 27 wind NNW
ALL of the models have a temperature rise between 10PM and 1AM. ALL of them.
If we take TK and SAK’s words to heart, we need to be on the look out for that temperature rise NOT to happen, at least not
initially.
Wind is due NORTH at Logan.
Now we will be reporting at 3am vs 10 tonight, me like that better .
Temp slipped down 1 degree here in Woburn the last hour .. drizzle falling that may be marginally freezing on a few surfaces but not the pavement at the moment. I am sitting at 31 right now.
Thanks so much, TK.
Our temp has dropped 2 degrees in the last hour to 32.9 on the deck. Sensor is 6′ off the ground.
With a light mist
I’ll be outside for a short time soon so I can do a close-up check to see if any surfaces at my location have ice on them.
Today’s 35 degree sun angle probably sent enough radiation through the clouds to warm up dark surfaces above 32F.
However, the sun is getting lower in the sky, still some wet bulbing to go.
Portland ME dp at 15F. I figure most of southern Maine and southeast NH are going to wet bulb down to 23-25F and then that heavy mass of cold dense air in those areas, let’s see what happens to it overnight.
We’re at about an October 27 sun now. It’s at the point where it makes a difference. I’ve always (in my head) thought right around February 10 or so is when I started to notice that effect coming into play in a noticeable way.
Down to 31 here with dp 29.
Wet bulb 31.
31 here…down one degrees…and mist…same as Captain
Same here and same temp.
I noticed TKs temp was 31 also. Mine just dropped to 30
As expected, Sutton toward the center is consistently reporting 27 on its Wunder stations.
I have an appt. at doctor’s office in Newton tomorrow morning. Just a short hop from Natick but wondered if driving might be a problem.
Unless something like I described below happens, it
“Looks” like you should be OK. Please do NOT go by what I say, but please confirm with TK.
My guess is that the main roads will have been treated enough to be OK. It’s stairs, walk-ways, and sidewalks that I am most worried about. I’m not nearly convinced that temperatures will be above freezing, including there. We don’t have any strong surface warm advection going on. The only place that may happen briefly is over far southeastern MA if the low center manages to cut northeastward just enough, and even if it did happen there it would last almost no time and make no progress northward.
18Z GFS, 4 AM tomorrow.
https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021518/015/prateptype_cat.conus.png
1029 High to the North. As depicted rain in SNE
But as discussed above somewhere, can this high drain
the cold down the coast into Eastern SNE? Ah, that is the question. Personally, I hope not as it would only produce
freezing rain. If it could produce snow, then I’d be all for it.
Old salty do you think going in at 3am instead of 10pm tonight is a risky call or you think that part of the city will be fine .
John, With the temperature dropping, hard to say.
I am down to 31 here in JP only about 2 – 2 1/2 miles from
the Longwood area and the Hospital.
There is a light freezing drizzle falling.
If this keeps up, the hospital area could start getting slippery long before either the 10PM or 3PM arrival time.
You guys probably should be there now.
See what TK reports after being outside.
Those are my thoughts. I have been posting temps here all
afternoon. Been below freezing for about an hour now.
There’s salt available if another shop needs to drop if needed. Believe me if it ices up operations will call us .
I’ll bet the plan changes .
Given temps have been inching down, and we’re not about to shift the wind into a warming direction, I’d plan on being ready earlier, not later.
I just ventured out to pick up our recycling bin. The driveway is already treacherous and the vehicles are iced over.
Oh boy. I forget where you are.
Where are you located? Helps us all to know. Thanks.
For some reason I was thinking near Fitchburg like Lunenburg???
Yes – Lunenburg. Gateway to Fitchburg!
Still 31 here in JP, DP 28, Wet Bulb 30
South Sutton …railings and deck furniture not covered by snow are glazed over. Cars look to be glazing also. I can’t tell about walkways but to not think they are icing. I’m surprised the town didn’t pretreat. They usually do but it may be in process. They sure know more than I do and always do a good job
Eric
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1361427812436090887?s=21
And my boy, Pete
https://twitter.com/petenbcboston/status/1361433253299838985?s=21
Main roads in my area are fine because they have enough treatment on them, but the walks/driveways/railings/stairs are starting to ice up with freezing drizzle now. As of 5PM I was checking in on my mom and her wrought iron railings are nicely glazed over.
Same here TK.
Harvey, Eric and Pete seem to have the same playbook. Makes me feel better about getting up and out in AM.
NOT TK’s playbook and not likely SAK’s either.
Really? I thought that was similar to TKs.
I have my reservations that it’s going to be just that easy to get up and jaunt jollily about tomorrow morning without the risk of landing on one’s patoot. I’d feel better if there were actually something to move the cold air out of the way…………..
Street lights came on and I can now readily see a healthy
drizzle falling and it IS freezing.
Boston Harbor Buoy wind has temporarily backed to 020 from 040 earlier in the day.
Perhaps an extremely weak wave of low pressure may be passing out to our east and southeast …….. enough to keep the wind north and will for a few more hours.
Maybe later this evening, we´ll see if the winds try to veer back slightly to NE or ENE, but until then, I think Boston points west and north are stuck in the mid-upper 20s.
I love the concept of the NWS radar on their web page, but I really hope they are going to make some changes soon. Operationally, it’s nearly useless on a laptop (I haven’t tried on a phone yet). It loads very slowly, the quality is poor, the loop capability is horrendous, and once you get into it, there’s no going “back” … in other words, forget trying to use the back command to get back to where you were before – it doesn’t work. You have to close the tab. And I have also noticed about 50% of the time it doesn’t bother to load any actual data. 😉
But I really do love the intent – I just hope they refine it and work out the bugz!
Agreed on all points !!!!
Just made my nightly drive from Brockton to Nashua. Drizzle from Brockton to Lowell. Temp was 31/32 from Brockton to Needham, 30 from Needham to Billerica, 29 from Billerica to Tyngsboro, and 28 in Nashua. Noticed ice covering my side view mirrors and windshield wipers once I got to about Lowell. It was starting to accumulate on the side of the windshield as well, so I cranked up the defroster again to take care of that.
My drive home at 3am should be interesting.
Be very careful.
Safe travels !
I’m leaving at 2am from pembroke to be at the hospital for 3am but should be in the high 30s correct
I do not think it will be that warm in the city at that time, no.
What’s your number
88 😉
Maybe 31.
Thanks TK.
HRRR is also initializing a little warmer than it actually is, at least for Boston, which I gave a quick look at. It’s highly likely warming that area up too quickly as well on its forecast.
Yes, AND it has not gotten ANY of this afternoon’s precipitation.
I guess it’s so light it flew under it’s radar!
It’s been performing VERY poorly.
When it’s good, it’s good and when it’s not, it’s not.
I guess that about sums it up.
18z GFS Kuchera Snow through Saturday. Virtually all of that 5-8″ of snow in most of SNE is from the Thursday/Friday system:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2021021518&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
18z GFSv16 Kuchera Snow is colder with more snow/less mix Thurs/Fri and more widespread 8″+ amounts:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_para&p=snku_acc&rh=2021021518&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12z Euro Snow projection pretty consistent as well (keeping in mind this is 10:1 so a bit lower):
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2021021512&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Looking forward to getting past this mess tonight and moving onto Thursday!
Sure, Thursday will be a nice change from this crap, however,
NOT a big snow producer. 3-6,4-8 ish type event.
Jeez, all models showing a nice 5-8″+ for Thursday….since when is that not a nice event?!? You are hard to please!
As Biden would say….COME ON MAN!
With the SE Ridge in place, we got to take whatever snow amount we can get.
Given that this pattern does not produce blockbusters, that is a good snow event for the regime we’re in.
There is a tree near the street light in front of my house and I can Clearly see the ice accumulating on the tree branches. Looking
cool.
I’m pretty much not even going to re-evaluate the late week system until tomorrow morning’s update. I’m much more concerned with what happens tonight, although I’m somewhat encouraged that at least we won’t be reaching ice accretion levels where we start seeing too much tree damage. This is going to be more of a travel issue than a damage issue, I believe.
18z RGEM also on board for the colder solution late week.
Here is hour 84 at the end of its run with all of SNE in frozen precip. AND, that mix in CT and RI at that point occurs AFTER about 9 hours of snow!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype&rh=2021021518&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Boston’s 345PM discussion update was not indicating it being cold enough for freezing precipitation in the city (indicating the icing would be NW of the BOS-PVD corridor), so let’s assume they were probably figuring 33 or 34 there. Well, LOGAN is 28 with freezing drizzle just over an hour after that update, so yes, this is going to be an issue including in the city well into the evening. It’s not just going to suddenly jump into the upper 30s because the models said it would. The atmosphere drives the weather, not the computer guidance. 😉 IF the wind shifts to east in Boston …. if …. it’ll blow about 5 MPH – that ain’t gonna do a whole lot of warm advecting. 😉 … So, yes it will warm up, a little, but more slowly than the plug&chuggers (a.k.a. models) will want you to believe.
Thanks
Thanks again TK. You answered my question before I could ask it. Temps may be cooler but power outages and tree damage remain issues largely outside 495?
I’m optimistic that the amount of precipitation and therefore the amount of ice accretion will be low enough to limit the tree damage & resultant power outages, but I can’t imaging our region escaping that completely. But I-495 west and north is the greatest threat for the accretion that can cause power issues.
It is looking like a great call by TK for the late week system as he said look for a colder solution.
No precip here now. Walkways fine. Railings and deck furniture glazed over
Correction..SIL just went out to collect an amazon package. He said walkway was a bit slick
Just a thought and I suspect all have done this. Leave devices plugged in, turn heat up a bit, turn freezer and fridge down a bit
Good advice Vicki . Luckily i think the south shore escapes this but Ice is dangerous.
Thanks SSK. I figure it can’t hurt. I dug out the lanterns and batteries and that will probably keep outages at bay also 🙂 😉
I’m going to bookmark this classic Mark post, in response to JPD saying Thursday won’t be a big snow producer:
“Jeez, all models showing a nice 5-8″+ for Thursday …. since when is that not a nice event?!? You are hard to please!
As Biden would say …. COME ON MAN!”
— — —
JPD’s enthusiasm for Big Daddy – Margusity – events is wonderful. Mark’s level-headedness is great, too.
LOL Joshua. After all this rain tonight/tomorrow, a 5-8″ replenishment of our snowpack would be a welcome sight to my eyes! They don’t all have to be biggies as much as I enjoy them too. Anything 6″ or more I have always considered “significant” 🙂
My snowpack of 6-8 is now a frozen igloo. I just reached out the slider onto the deck wind knocked on it and expected someone underneath to knock back 🙂
I peaked in North Attleboro at 1:05pm at 34.9. I am now sitting at 31.0 and seem to be leveling off.
Snowing in pembroke
Like barely
28 here. Light stuff falling. My mail carrier said walking is really bad. Driving not too bad
I just learned about yak trax on reddit. I haven’t ever heard of the things but apparently smart delivery people swear by them. They’re about twenty bucks and go on your shoes or boots: https://www.amazon.com/Yaktrax-Walk-Traction-Cleats-Walking/dp/B01LJ6FX3C
Figured I’d share as there might be others who have never heard of them.
Could use them here, as things are glazed with ice. Went to look out the front door, and lo and behold, a cardboard box with a top coating of ice (a Staples order). Black wrought iron railing completely iced. Slick!
I would say a very good forecast by TK and SAK.
We used something similar from LL Bean back in the 1990s when we were clearing stalls and bringing horses in and out from paddocks.
00z gfs really coming into a coastal track for Thursday storm. 00z NAM is adjusting but still holds on the inland track.
6-10 inches region wide.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2021021600&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Here is the next frame
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2021021600&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
What a huge shift on the GFS from a few days ago. We knew it was coming but wasn’t expecting the complete 180 like this. It is basically a benchmark Nor’easter now with all snow for a good chunk of SNE. 6-10″ a distinct possibility if this verifies. Good stuff!
Temp has been ever so slowly dropping all evening. I think I may have bottomed out at my current reading of 26.4 with some fz drizzle. I’ll be interested to see how quickly this low level cold air can make it above freezing and how much ice accretion there is by dawn.
I’ve gone up 3/4 of a degree just in the last 45 min and am now sitting at 32 in North Attleboro.
As of midnight at Logan:
Temp 30F, North 7 mph
Freezing Drizzle
Temps inching up 1-2 degrees per hour.
According to Harvey/Waunkum, a good 6 inches for most with the Thursday/Friday system.
Snow-mix-snow
6″+ looking increasingly likely for a good portion of SNE. 00z GFS, GFSv16, and CMC all on board now for a coastal storm with a benchmark track delivering mostly snow to much of SNE.
The 18z NAM predicted that the 32-degree line would be a little west of PSM-LWM-OWD-PVD at 6z.
The 00z NAM predicted that the 32-degree line would be a little west of I-95 at 6z.
The 00z GFS predicted that the 32-degree line would be roughly from Hampton Beach-Lowell-Milford-Storrs,CT
In reality, the 32-degree line at 6z runs roughly alone Route 1 north of Boston, and in between Route 24 and I-95 south of Boston.
In other words, the models continue to try to move to warm in farther inland too quickly. They also are trying to move the steady precip in too quickly.
But please, keep discussing what the models have 48-72 hours from now, when they can’t even get a 6-12 hour forecast right.
Left the house around 2:30 this morning . Ride from pembroke to longwood medical area. Was 36 degrees the entire way . I think it may be 37 now in the city .
Just made the drive home from Nashua. It was 30-32 from Nashua to Billerica, but the roads had been treated. Temperature jumped to 35 in Bedford, and it was 35/36 the rest of the way home with no issues at all. Mostly drizzle for the ride home, but looking at the radar, the steady stuff is finally moving in. Another horrible performance by most of the guidance.
yup
The guidance is sure on a roll … right into the gutter. 😉
37 here. we had freezing precip till about midnight or shortly after. good 8 hours worth.
According to Matt Noyes, the NBC-10 “in house” model has all snow for most and a 9-12” stretch from Boston to Worcester for the Thursday/Friday with really no mixing or changeover.
From my viewpoint, I am not certain their “in house” model is really any superior than any of the other standard models.
TK – Are you familiar with their station model and level of accuracy?
The other tv mets do see significant snows though. No maps just yet.
I haven’t “officially” verified the in-house model, but from just paying attention, there’s nothing special about it.
Don’t think I’m ready for #’s on that system yet … maybe in comments section later today.
Thanks TK. I figured as much. I hope they at least look at other models as well and don’t rely on just their model exclusively.
I’m sure they take in all the info they can. Good group there!
New weather post!