Tuesday February 16 2021 Forecast (7:44AM)

207 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Low pressure cuts across the South Coast region this morning before exiting and taking its rainfall with it. After some icing conditions from freezing drizzle & freezing rain in a good portion of the region we thankfully saw the temperature climb to above freezing from southeast to northwest during the overnight, avoiding what could have been a more serious icing situation, but as drier and colder air moves in tonight behind this system, we will indeed have to watch for the formation of black ice on any untreated surfaces that are still wet – and there will likely be quite a few. High pressure brings bright and cold weather to our region Wednesday before the next in a series of low pressure areas makes a run at us later Thursday, passing just south of the region early Friday. This system will have colder air to work with and start as snow, with a few to several inches likely before a flip to sleet / freezing rain / rain, the details of which will be worked out for the next two blog updates. This storm system exits later Friday and sets us up for a cold and dry start to the weekend.

TODAY: Overcast with areas of rain (a few pockets of icing still possible interior valleys of north central MA and southwestern NH) this morning. Mainly cloudy with areas of fog this afternoon. Highs 33-40 except 40-47 far southeastern MA. Wind E to N 5-15 MPH except may be briefly SE to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty Nantucket area.

TOIGHT: Clearing. Lows 16-23. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 13-20. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow arriving southwest to northeast late day. Highs 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain likely, with greatest chance for frozen precipitation interior and north, greatest chance for freezing and/or liquid precipitation coast and south. Temperatures rise to 28-35. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast with snow/sleet/ice/rain morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind E to N 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

High pressure from Canada delivers dry but cold weather for the February 21. Disturbance from the west brings precipitation threat February 22-23 followed by fair and seasonably cold weather to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

We may see a transition out of blocking into more of a west zonal pattern with a storm track bringing weaker systems over or north of the region with a couple precipitation chances and some temperatures swings.

207 thoughts on “Tuesday February 16 2021 Forecast (7:44AM)”

  4. Thanks TK!

    Yesterday evening was very treacherous even here in Boston. I had to hold on to the railing and my front gate to put my trash out to the curb on the sidewalk. Fortunately, I just had one big plastic trash bag. That was the worst icing I’ve seen in the city in quite awhile. Very glad that it didn’t last into my morning commute as well.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Most uneventful here this morning with just some plain ole rain. We were up to 32 by Midnight, even though Logan said 30. it was not freezing here by Midnight. I don’t care what Logan was reporting. But we had a solid 8 hours of very light to occasionally light FREEZING precipitation. Quite icy and slippery during that time.

    re: Thursday
    We shall see. I am still thinking 3-6, 4-8 type event. How much mixing/changeover will there be? My gut says not too much and if it does, it stays frozen, at least in the Boston area.

    1. Oh and 34 and rain. TK to Eric to Pete did great. I didn’t check others so just don’t know what they forecasted

      1. ‘This ok. I like looking at the different maps. Thanks JPD and Mark and others too for your many posts. It really is a good part of the fun.

        1. Yawn… huh? What? Did you say something? What was that? Huh? yawn…………………………….

          I’m up already!

  10. I really gotta find and take pics of my fantasy weather maps I drew as a kid. Y’all would get a kick… 😉

    If those were real, Boston’s average snowfall would be about… 150 inches? 😀

    1. Blow up the drawings, hang em on a wall and dress in 70’s clothing and pretend you’re a forecaster from a pre computer graphics era lol

      1. My father made me a glass covered weather map I’d draw on with “watercolor” markers. 😉

    2. I used to not pay attention in school and draw weather maps.

      Almost always they included a nice low headed towards or already parked just South of SNE. With lots of the symbols for moderate or heavy snow with vis 1/8, 1/4 and 1/2 mile. Sometimes it would be a hurricane, or a cold front producing tornadoes.

      I really should have become a meteorologist, but circumstances didn’t quite work out that way. If any of the local colleges had a meteorology program, I would have done it. Unfortunately, only MIT had a program and that was a masters program with all sorts of undergraduate prerequisites.

      I have attention issues, so I did not get 800s on my sats and MIT really prefers 800s. I applied, but did not get accepted.
      My IQ is Plenty high enough to be accepted, but they wanted no part of me. hey when I finally got a good job, I was working along side of many MIT grads doing the same work.

      So, I did the next best thing and Went to a school I could afford and get into, Northeastern and majored in Math and minored in Physics. Now I was set for a masters in Meteorology somewhere, but alas, I met my eventual wife and that dream went out the window.

      I ended up doing just fine, but the what ifs? I probably would have SUCKED anyway as I would have likely inserted too
      many WISHcasting forecasts. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. At least even as a young kid, you knew enough that a low just south of SNE was needed to bring snow. Nice story! 🙂

      3. Northeastern is an amazing school. Many of the engineers at the company where Mac and I met and where we both worked for decades were part of their program and ended up staying permanently.

          1. I feel the same about my school years but then remember that I came into my own once in the working world and have really loved the work I have done

            I’d say you are a tremendous success !!!

    1. YIKES!!!

      I see that it is 57 in Marshfield while it is 37 in Boston.
      20 degree differences!!! WOW!!

      I guess the snow is taking a beating down there. It may retreat!!

    1. This concept was also used in either the movie 21 or the
      AMC series Halt and Catch Fire. It was most interesting.

      btw, the movie 21 was pretty cool, well my Nephew was in the movie as one of the blackjack dealers. And even more cool
      is that my wife and I used to do exactly what is portrayed in the movie and it was every bit as exciting! Only they over glamorized the amount of money they were making, although I have made as much as $30,000 in a couple of days.

      The casinos have since taken measures to eliminate any advantage from card counting like increasing the number of decks, cutting out too many cards out of the deck, continuous shuffling machines and finally the most dastardly thing of all, they changed the pay out on blackjacks from 3;2 to 6:5 and my friends that is huge and makes the game unbeatable.

  18. Thanks TK
    This could change but Thurs into Fri looking like a 3-6 4-8 event. I will take that and I am happy with this winter that I got two storms that produced just over a foot for my area.

  19. Last night and today has behaved generally as expected in SNE.

    To my eyes the 12z NAM over amps a bit, interjecting too much warmer air, and too much precip by creating a later wave of slightly more intense precip.

    I would trend colder, but drop it’s QPF.

    1. Agree. Moderate.
      Basically a prolonged period of light snow, perhaps occasionally it will creep up to moderate snow.

  23. Last evening showed that Boston CAN maintain a North wind for a decent period of time or suddenly shift to North without warning. I do find it interesting though that just to the south, locations like Marshfield, Plymouth etc. are generally able to resist the “icy” North wind.

    The east wind is NEVER a total lock for Boston. Fools even the best “tv” mets. 😉

  24. There has been a bit of a trend from 4-6″ to 6-10″ but light lingering snow rarely adds up to accumulating snow.

    So monitor, strike a chord in the middle, and think colder solutions.

  25. The milder influx in eastern and southern areas had been good for loosening and removing some packed ice on driveway etc!

  27. Reading small news stories on it here and there …..

    I can´t imagine what is happening in the southern central States, particularly Texas.

    Sure, they are used to a surge of cold from the central and northern Plains now and again, but not quite as long lasting and as cold as this.

    I´m guessing homes are built more to combat the heat, but maybe less to insulate from the cold.

    So many without power and they evidently are doing rolling blackouts.

    I can´t imagine how cold households must be. I know when we´ve gone without power in Marshfield for stretches, luckily, we´ve had 20s at night or no arctic plunges and still, our house got down into the 40s and that was the center hallway.

    Crazy as it sounds, you have to also hope the eventual rebound in temps doesn´t come too quickly as that could burst pipes. Unfortunately, coming into later February, that rebound in temp may indeed happen quickly a handful of days from now.

    2. I have someone that works for me remotely there and he has no power or internet and has wife and a 3 month old in the house too. They can’t even get into a hotel.

    3. My brother-in-law lives in Austin, he has not had power for more than 30 hours. But, they are able to light their natural gas stove with a match, so they can boil water for coffee and cook.

  29. Thanks TK.

    Had a nice glaze on the driveway last night with freezing drizzle but no issues earlier this AM with the heavier rain and temps rising into the mid 30’s. System behaved pretty much as expected here. Literally feels mild out right now with temps in the upper 30’s. Snowpack held up better than I expected.

    Regarding Thursday, the GFS and NAM, like the RGEM, also have this system more strung out now with a couple of lows in succession passing south of us. This is beginning to look like a longer duration event. Though there will likely be periods in between the two lows where the precip shuts off or becomes very light.

    I am liking our chances for a “significant” 6″+ event across much of SNE. Right now, more concerned about lack of QPF than mixing if those totals aren’t realized.

    2. The ICON precip type depiction on the TT maps is always screwed up. If you look at most of those areas in SNE shaded green, the surface temps and in many cases mid level temps are below freezing. In reality, a lot of that would be sleet and freezing rain.

      Regardless, it is way too warm.

  35. Historic Cold In OKC
    Tweet from NWS Norman
    The official Oklahoma City temperatures at Will Rogers World Airport has fallen to -14. This is the coldest official OKC temperature recorded since February 12, 1899.

    1. We are thinking alike at the same time.

      Pretty crazy is snows for 24 straight hours and doesnt generate much.

  39. So far the American models more bullish with the snow. I do expect some sort of winter weather alert to be posted for the late week system.

  40. On the 12z Euro if that could track a little further south early next week things could get interesting. A little more juice with that one.

    1. Yes, two late developing coastal storm threats in the Euro long range. Could be interesting if we can get those to dig a little more and track a bit further south.

  41. So is it “almost” safe to say that there will be little to no mixing/changeover away from the South Coast?

  44. Will see if after this system if NY maintains its lead or BOS will be leading. This race is tight folks
    NY 33.8
    BOS 33.2

    As it stands right now if your a BOS fan you are not rooting for the 12z EURO as NY would widen it’s lead and if the 12z American models are correct the race will still be tight. This could change but I think BOS will be in the lead as mixing will be an issue in NY.

    1. This is getting to be like the 1978 pennant race. Well, sort of. The Yankees erased a 14 game deficit (in July) and by the time they swept the Red Sox in a 4 game series at Fenway in early September (I went to every game; bleachers) NY was in front. The Sox clawed back from a 4 game deficit in mid September and tied it up on the last game of the season, only to lose to Bucky bleeping Dent and the bombers in the one-game playoff (I was there; bleachers again).

      The one game playoff in weather will occur at some point in March. I think Boston wins this time around.

  48. Boston got out of the gates early with a 4.3 inch lead thanks to the Halloween Eve storm. What cost Boston the lead was the February 1st 2nd storm where they officially got 1.7 inches where NY got 17.2 inches. To me what is more impressive is NY went the whole month of January without measurable snow and has 33.8 inches of snow for the season so far.
    Fangraphs came out today with their postseason percentages.
    BOS with a 47 % chance to make the playoffs and NY has a 91% chance. The Orioles have a 0% chance to make the playoffs.
    https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1361724237074096130

    1. “To me what is more impressive is NY went the whole month of January without measurable snow”

      It’s not that impressive, since it didn’t happen, Central Park had 2.1″ of snow in January.

      1. My point exactly. All this talk about Boston vs. NYC in the snowfall department this winter is moot. If you took the measurement from the Commons we would be one moderate storm ahead of NYC

    1. It just dries out after dumping on the Mid Atlantic!)@(*#&*(!@&#*(&^!@(*#&(*!@&#(*!&@(#*&!(@*#&(!*@&#*(!@&

  53. 18z NAM looks like a strong line of thunderstorms west of SNE then as it progresses through SNE it loses its punch. NYC area CT do well with that run.

  54. So we sit about 48 hours from the onset of the late week threat we’ve been watching for quite some time, and with “48-hour-confidence” my thoughts are this…

    This system will be formidable upon approach, but no powerhouse low. Remember, this pattern seldom allows that to happen. It’s a pattern of strung out energy. Keep that in mind. That said, there is going to be a good amount of overrunning moisture with this system so it doesn’t need a strong low to produce a moderate amount of precipitation. As I was probably a little too strong forecasting the cold air holding for the system we’re just coming out of now, I may have underestimated the cold coming in ahead of the next one. I’m not underestimating it now though, and I think a lot of cold will be in place for a mostly snow event over at least 75% of the region. Models? NAM too fast, too warm. GFS/Euro handle this better as a slightly longer-duration (more strung out) but colder event, snow arrival from SW to NE during the course of Thursday afternoon, ending gradually west to east on Friday. Who sees sleet/ice/rain? Well…. This time I don’t think we’re going to see anything remotely close to the warmth aloft that we saw with the current system. South Coast probably goes to sleet & rain/ice (ice depending on sfc temp). Maybe mixing up to I-90… North of there, including Boston, it’s a 4-8 inch snowfall. Any mixing to the south would limit accumulation to the lower side of that 4-8 inch range or come in a little under it. Of course tweaks I’m sure will be needed, but that’s the way I see this one playing out…

    Dry & cold weekend! Not terribly cold, but cold. The sun is going to feel nice though as it climbs toward equivalent of mid October angles. This will be the type of event that most of the area can just shovel out / plow out / snowblow out once and then the sun will do the work on the pavements Saturday.

    2. Thank you TK. Seems to be spot on, barring any unforeseen
      changes. Not impressive for sure, But I’ll take it.

  55. Central PA has done well with snowfall this season especially with the two big ones we had in early February and the week before Christmas. The NAM has really trended colder the last few runs where it was the warmest of the guidance for this next system.

    1. Warranted at this point IMO. Some areas should reach the criteria, so I expected at least some of that will be upgraded to a warning at the proper time.

  57. I was commenting earlier this afternoon that I expected some sort of winter weather alert will be posted for this upcoming system.

  60. NWS public Webinar this evening. I cannot make it, but it looks interesting.

    Tonight’s public webinar topic: remote sensing. Join us at 7pm as we show how different instruments help us remotely observe the atmosphere. We’ll discuss how satellite, radar, upper-air observations, and surface observations help meteorologists forecast: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/3124083482693510927
    3:49 PM · Feb 16, 2021·Twitter Web App

  62. Old salty….wayyyy off the weather topic. I think you recommended another show…big sky? Or is it another Netflix show? Or any other recommendations. I need a binge watching show and appreciate any suggestions. Thanks

    1. Not Big sky, or at least I have not watched. Depending on how much you can take Mad Men on Amc is excellent, but it shows how ruthless business can be and most especially how disgusting some men can be. pretty rough at times, so be forewarned available with amazon prime

      Another, is catch fire and halt. It is about the beginning of the home vomputer age. very good. again, shows some sleezy men. This is on Hulu I think.

      Uf you lime sci-fi, then the 100 on netfli and also lost in space.

      .

    2. My son & I love that show , love it . I’m torn on tonight I was up at 2am this morning for 3am overtime & I am exhausted right now but I’ll probably suck it up . How about all the Chicago series do you like them I’m hooked on the cop show .

        1. Thanks. It was a bit too graphic for me right now. I have not watched the chicago series. Is that on Netflix?

          And thank you !

          1. Nope the NBC station Wednesday nights 8-11
            Chicago med , Chicago fire & Chicago Pd. Chicago PD I started watching in April & I love it & it’s easily the best cop series I’ve watched & I love the cop shows .

  64. I know this has been batted around before, but is there any correlation between fog and snow melt. It got quite foggy this afternoon and made me wonder if the two were related.

    3. Fog itself doesn’t “eat” snow as the myth indicates. It is the warm air and relatively higher humidity that results in fog formation over snowcover that actually melts the snow.

    4. Fog does NOT melt the snow, but rather the conditions that
      lead to the fog development, ie warm moist air over the cold snow pack. 🙂

    1. I think it was just more that JR didn’t mention it in that weathercast. I’m sure he indicated lows in the teens. I hope nobody needs to be reminded that water will freeze long before it gets that cold. 😉

  67. TK, thanks for the clarification on the myth of snow-eating fog.
    I noticed the snow vanishing today very quickly. And there was some fog. But, it’s the high humidity that did it.

    There are many tragic stories coming out of Texas. This one broke my heart: https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1361812124243271689/photo/1

    While I root for cold here, I don’t want it to cause death and serious disruption. And it has in Texas. We won’t know the full extent for a few days, I think.

  68. I see some others mentioning fog.

    From Marshfield to Plymouth, within a couple miles of the coast, it is socked in.

    I don´t know if a dense fog advisory is needed until drier air and a breeze arrives in a few hours. Visibility along rte 3 is very low.

          1. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but with a low of about 20 for you tonight, I don’t think that’s going to happen. 🙁

  70. I wonder if JR and PB would be interested in making another bet for a pizza (even though they don’t work together anymore). For Woburn, JR’s early forecast is 3-6 inches, while PB’s is 7-9 inches. They clearly disagree. 😉 One time when they both worked at Ch 7 they had a pizza bet as to who would get closest to Boston’s actual snowfall on a storm. JR won the bet, and a pizza. It was fun. 🙂

    1. According to Harvey this is a long duration storm so no matter what we get it’s not going to be a pounding of snow it’s a build up over time . Harvey said it could go to Friday night .

      1. I’m sure your local is still open for take-out. If not, there’s always the freezer aisle at the grocery. 😉

        1. I swear freezer pizza has gotten WORSE since the pandemic! Digiorno tastes bad, red baron is meh at best.

          For local pizza I drive to pat’s pizza in boston or I get montillios in quincy. Italian pizza or bust.

      2. We have brothers from Naples who opened a pizzeria in Sutton just when the pandemic started. Absolutely true Italian. Even I love it and I’m not a huge pizza person. But the American Flatbread frozen pizza is good.

      1. I’d go with neither. JR’s stops at 6. PB’s starts at 7. My forecast for Woburn is 6.5 inches.. 😀 😀 😀 😀 They’ll BOTH owe me a pizza!

          1. Hmmmm… Well, depends on if you are playing the over, the under, or the middle .. It’s the Goldilocks dilemma!

  71. I’m no fan of snow as you all know so I’m going to buy into the 18z euro even though it should be thrown out.

    1. Well, given the trend over the last 48 hours has been to nudge it SE, I can’t be 100% sure that trend is done yet. So yes, it’s still a potential result.

  74. In the great NYC vs Boston snowfall race of 2020-2021, since we are having fun with this, should net about the same for both cities for the upcoming event, if it plays out the way I think it will…

    NYC will make a run to or above 25 inches for February, making it the snowiest February since their 29 inch February 2013. This, combined with their first double digit December snowfall (11 inches) in 11 years and their modest 2.1 inch January snowfall will have them closing in on the 40 inch mark for the season to date… By the end of Friday, Boston’s seasonal snowfall will be in the same ballpark … yup, I had to say “ballpark” because I’m all about puns. 🙂

    1. The member that crossed Cape Cod was given a little too much Bourbon hot toddy for Mardi Gras. 😛

        1. That’s pretty much where I think it will go, unless we see that slight southward trend continue ………

          1. Good, give me the 995mb though, not this weak sauce 1003 crap. Not that 995mb is a powerhouse either but it looks better 🙂

  80. I’d forgotten that Texas has its own power grid to avoid federal regulation. I should have remembered since the company Mac and I worked for had 98% of North American utilities as clients. It is a horrific mess down there

    1. I’m really curious about the v16 .. Need to pay close attention in comparison to GFS for upcoming events…

Comments are closed.