The Week Ahead

81 Comments

3:23AM

High pressure brings bright and milder weather today. A cold front from the north introduces some clouds later Tuesday and a slight cool down into Wednesday but with continued dry weather except for the possibility of a few light shower of snow or mixed rain/snow off the ocean early Wednesday. A warm front approaching from the southwest will bring the chance of light rain on Thursday. Only a touch of light snow would occur if any precipitation arrived earlier in the day, but it would not be significant. A couple cold fronts will drop temperatures back to near normal Friday and near to below normal over the weekend.  Any snow chances with these systems are on the low side as it stands now, probably just a few snow showers.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Sunny. High 42-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 42-47. Wind WNW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 30-35. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few light mix/snow showers through midday. High 37-42. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Slight chance of light snow/mix morning. Chance of light rain afternoon. Low 30. High 49.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of light rain or snow showers. Low 30. High 44.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 37.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 33.

81 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. TK, thanks for update. Doesn’t look like we will get any real snow accumulation in near future. My 3″ snow forecast for the entire winter is looking better. *sigh*

  2. This week’s Logan avg highs lows…

    Mon-Wed 42F/29F
    Thurs-Sat 41F/28F
    Sun 40F/27F. (all courtesy of Taunton NWS and Weather Channel)

    For temp departures this week, I’d guess +2 or 3 for Mon and Tues, close to normal Wed. Its the Thurs-Fri timeframe that could record a +6 to 10F anomoly on one or both days, then near or ever so slightly below avg next weekend. So, maybe an average of +3 or 4F for the next 7 days and with the current anomoly at 7.2F, I’m guessing Logan will be at around a +6F anomoly by around December 18th.

  3. this is amazing (and depressing). Looks like we might skate (not really), right into January with pretty boring weather. And if Jauary end up “mild” as it forecasted by some, we’re going to have one heck of a short winter unless we get bit in the end.

  4. Thanks for the update, TK. I am giving my thoughts on the winter. As I have stated in the past, I don’t have the proper knowledge and I am not looking at any models – just my gut feeling. Right now I am guessing that whenever we get the next real snowstorm and I won’t guess on when that happens, we will get in a snowy pattern that could go into April, especially if the pattern starts well after Jan. If it doesn’t get as cold as it should, we could get a lot of storms that have mixed precip. And if the temps. never get cold enough to support snow at all this winter for the Boston area – well, that would be just plain weird. I’m not sure if anyone else has the same predictions. Maybe they have said it but in a more professional way. In any case, I may change my mind again, but right now that is my opinion.

    And I never thought I would say this, but I have been enjoying the little cold blast of air we have had lately – invigorating! Have a good day all.

    1. I love it. You going by your gut. As you know I am predicting plowable snow by
      the end of this month all on gut feeling, I am almost alway’s right. Vicki goes by
      gut feeling as well. I liked your post thank you.

      1. Thanks John! 🙂

        I really, really hope you are right! If you are, I just hope it doesn’t affect Christmas travel and plans for people. Let it snow after everyone is home and the holidays over. ‘Though I would like a white Christmas – one inch from a gentle snow would be nice.

        1. I am leaning more towards after. Although It is to get cold this weekend. If it stays cold and somthing were to creep up than there is the white christmas chance. I suspect though It may come after. I would be shocked If
          we did not see snow by the New Year. But as I have been guessing I think I will prevail.

          1. and new year’s plans too – some of us travel to the south shore 🙂 and more important there are a lot of families who do not see each other all year that I would feel very sad about if they could not get together.

            Listen to me – a snow lover but under conditions – now that is very very sad 🙁

        2. rainshine – have you been down Pelham Island Road? I don’t know if you saw my post but the water is literally level with the road – I don’t remember seeing that at this time of year since we moved to this area in 1979. And it rose since Saturday by several inches.

          1. Hi, Vicki – no, even ‘though we have lived in Sudbury for the past few yrs., we haven’t been down there for many years. Are there signs up telling people about the high water?

  5. WeatherWizard

    Good morning.
    The MJO signal if finally collapsing back into the Circle of Death. This is great news and is reflected on both sat imagery and the latest SOI values.
    SOI
    Convection building back into the Java Sea/Singapore/Malacca Strait all the way back into the Indian Ocean and is not under the suppressive side of the MJO anymore. This is a great sign and comes at a great time to allow for a deep amplification to the pattern across the CONUS. Not being in phase 5 takes away from the above average temperature influence and gives the pattern more room to change. As long as the MJO does not come out of the circle of death into phase 4 as some guidance suggest.
    Dec 18-21
    The European and recent 12z guidance teases us with some hope. Instead of the promising 50/50 low leading to a wintry threat we are going to see the PV shifting south a little bit with the pattern amplification leading to several northern stream disturbances carving out the trough across SE Canada. This keeps the SE ridge from flexing its muscle and allows the storm to move more east than north. Something to watch and it would be yet another “thread the needle type” system but the cold air is more promising than the last system.

    December 12, 2011 at 7:35 am | Reply | Report comment

    1. WeatherWizard

      Summary

      – Pattern change is coming! The MJO is letting up and we are seeing signs of stratospheric warming allowing the cold to come south.

      – December 18-21 storm threat is still on but looks to come in the form of rain rather than snow/ice, but we will keep an eye on it as the data shows some hope.

      – Euro shows some northern stream energy moving through 17-18…maybe some snowflakes in the area to put everone in the Christmas spirit.

      December 12, 2011 at 7:36 am | Reply | Report comment

  7. There may be a “big” picture that the experts see, but for us mere mortals, it would
    be nice to see something, anything, on any model output. Anything at all that I see, either on the GFS or the EURO calls for Inside runners, when there is an event. Ughh….

      1. The only saving grace on this is that HIGH to the North. It is a long way out and perhaps, just perhaps the system, if it develops at all, will move more East and South and/or it will
        spawn a coastal secondary, thanks to that HIGH. Here’s hoping anyway.

  10. The weather pattern to me since the Pre Halloween Noreaster has been boring. This time last Monday there was a little excitment when the 12Z NAM run came out only to be disappointed with another inside runner.

    1. Me and everyone on this blog love snow and cold but the other 15 million in new England r dancing in the streets as most hate snow

  11. Henry Margusity

    NAO, PNA and La Nina Are Just Ruining Our Winter
    Dec 12, 2011; 9:36 AM ET

    Discussion

    Videos will resume on Wednesday when I am back in the office. In the meantime, the weather pattern, while stormy, is not the one snow lovers in the eastern part of the country want to see prior to Christmas.

    Here is why….

    La Nina – Remains weak, so pattern remains typical of a La Nina with the cold weather in the West and northern Plains and the warmth across the East. The storm track has been from the southwest to the western Great Lakes.

    NAO – North Atlantic Oscillation remains positive, so no blocking and therefore no East Coast storms for major snowstorms. When the NAO goes negative, watch out.

    PNA – Pacific/North America Pattern remains neutral and now looks like it will go negative. What does that mean….trough and cold in the West and warmth/ridge in the East — this is not good for snowstorms in the East, but Western ski resorts will be rejoicing!

    I really don’t see much in the way of changes to the current pattern. While we will see storms, especially this week, the snow problems will be limited to areas where the cold can hold its ground long enough to allow for some snow. I do think the western Great Lakes and northern Plains have the best chance of snow prior to Christmas.

    I know a lot of you been looking at the storm around Christmas. Again, until we can get any of these indices to change, I would not get all that excited for major snowstorms in the eastern part of the country. It surely is a big change from the past two years

    1. OUCH!!! BUT, that just about sizes it up, doesn’t it???

      We need that NAO to go Negative. Prospects don’t look so good at the moment. We shall see. We keep hearing that it will change, but when?

      I guess we’re getting impatient? No? Lol

  12. On a scale of 1-10 on the UGH meter with that news it is a 9. The only reason its not a 10 is because there is a chance the NAO could go negative at some point during the winter.

  13. On a GOOD note, the Ocean water temperatures have responded to the “Cooler” weather the past few days (although the temps are still above average):

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Dec 9 2011, 4:50 pm EST
    Fri, 09 Dec 2011 16:50:00 -0500
    Temperature: 49.8 °F (9.9 °C)
    Dewpoint: 44.1 °F (6.7 °C)
    Wind: South at 15.7 MPH (13.61 KT)
    Wind Chill: 44 F (7 C)
    MSL Pressure: 1024.2 mb
    Water Temperature: 48.4 °F (9.1 °C)

    Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
    (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
    Last Updated: Dec 12 2011, 9:04 am EST
    Mon, 12 Dec 2011 09:04:00 -0500
    Temperature: 41.0 °F (5.0 °C)
    Wind: Southwest at 17.9 MPH (15.55 KT)
    Wind Chill: 32 F (0 C)
    Visibility: 1.60 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1033.7 mb
    Water Temperature: 48.2 °F (9.0 °C)
    Wave Height: 0.8 m (2.62 ft)
    Dominant Period: 4 sec

  16. For the DREAMERS amongst us:

    Bombogenesis is cyclogenesis taken to the extreme. Bombogenesis is defined as a mid-latitude cyclone that drops in surface barometric pressure by 24 or more millibars in a 24-hour period. The height contours pack around the center of rotation and the number of height contours increases rapidly in the developing stages. The most common time of the year for bombogenesis to occur is in the cool season (October to March) when the temperature gradient is large between the high and mid-latitudes. Bombogenesis typically occurs between a cold continental air mass and warm ocean waters or between a cold polar air mass and a much warmer air mass. Many Nor-easters are the product of bombs. The contrast in temperature between polar air spilling over the eastern U.S. and the warm Gulf Stream waters sets the stage for cyclogenesis on the boundary between these air masses. Sometimes bombs will develop in the central U.S. between the boundary of polar air and more tropical air. Cyclogenesis that results in bombs requires strong divergence aloft. This divergence aloft is supplied by a strong jet streak diving into the trough axis aloft from the developing low pressure. The momentum of the jet streak and the dynamics in the left front quadrant of the jet streak cause a rapid evacuation of mass above the region of cyclogenesis.

  17. Well I’ve seen enough I feel like I’m watching water boil and it never will if u watch every model run, I have and today Ive stopped, nothing’s happening!! everyday day I look at these model runs and I would make a friendly little bet there will be no white Christmas? John? U up? A matter of fact I’m willing to go out on a limb at this early stage of winter and say my gut tells me this winter will be short and sweet, 2wks till Christmas. Don’t expect much snow over the next month unless we a major change on model runs is forecasted have a great day everyone

    1. Yes I may be up for that. But If you have reviewed all of my postings I am calling for a plowable event the last two weeks of the month.

  19. I just heard from the weather channel that they think the eastern part of the country could be above normal temps going into the new year with well below normal snow. That’s great us here didn’t get the Halloween nor’easter like north and west did, here in foxboro area i measured under 2 inches that seriously was gone that day

    1. I know, but hey, it is something. It will probably be gone on the next run, but it was nice to see anyway. lol

    1. Scott,

      I don’t quite see it that way. There are 11 ensemble members, ONLY 2 of which are forecasted to go negative, leaving 9 somewhere nuetral to positive.

      Not a good sign in my opinion.

      1. The Nao forecast changes every run. The forecast from back at the beginning of the month was for it to be negative now. Fail!

  22. I’m not sure if there is another problem brewing. I was at a greenhouse/gift center on Route 20 in Wayland on Saturday and came home on Pelham Island Road which runs along the Sudbury River and I suspect many of you know as the road that always floods in the spring. They have had duck boats there a few times to transport residents.

    On Saturday the river was 4-6 inches from the road which surprised me since I do not in 30+ years remember seeing it this high in December. I was there again a few minutes ago and came back the same way and the river is now literally at the height of the road in about four spots.

    If we have the rain events I am wondering if it will create flooding. Also is this an indication that the water table is unusually high for this time of year?

  23. Vicki, Probably yes to both questions, but hopefully the water will receed prior
    to the next rain event.

  25. I have friends coming in for 3 days from st Louis, actually about an hr or so south and there hoping to see snow, they say they usually only get around a foot or so a yr on average, what r the chances they leave with snow and get here with no snow and mild, this is at the end of dec

  26. that’s what we need o.s.–a nice cold clipper blowing up. a little further south than those frames however.

    1. Even if depicted in those frames, we’d have something. However, the usual caution applies. It is a long ways out there. Plenty of time for everything to change AND it was that model. Didn’t show on the Euro, so let’s not get our hopes up, but rather just keep watching.

  27. believe me, no hopes here. anything on the models near and far to me is just eye candy until proven otherwise

    1. I’m with you. I stil like to have a look at those. It is interesting to me how
      things pan out or don’t. It’s truly amazing when a model latches onto something 7 or 8 days out and it comes to happen.

      I’d feel better IF ALL models were in agreement.

  30. Regarding the brand new set over on WBZ, Todd said that he can now wear a green tie if he wants to since there is no longer the chrome or “green screen” behind him. From what I can tell, he (or any other met) sees the graphics the same way the viewers do w/o having to look at a blank wall while explaining things.

    The new 7-day looks pretty good I guess…I kinda like the twirling suns. They look like yellow pinweels, Lol. 🙂

  31. Mt. Washington back up to 27F. If the sun had any strength and the airmass wasnt so chilly to start this morning, who knows what today’s upper 40s could have turned into.

  32. Pretty depressing December so far! The blog will be boring without any weather!! TK you need to make it snow!!
    🙂

    1. It’s not boring. Where is that spirit Hadi. We will be tracking storms soon enough. You and some others here havto believe that. It is the season to believe. Try this out. If you start singing Let It snow, Let It snow, Let It snow, It just might snow.

  34. I understand that it lacks the excitement of tracking winter storms with snow and rain/snow lines……etc…….but, I still find it all very interesting.

    Speaking of interesting, there’s been an area of thunderstorms in the far southern Carribean the past 2 days. I’d swear the outflow of the cirrus to its north makes it look like it doesnt have hostile wind flow above it. There already was the strongest hurricane in November in the eastern Pacific since satellite. I wonder if theres a chance of a little development to this feature in the coming days and I readily believe the lighter wind shear in these 2 regions is somehow connected to the overall hemispheric pattern producing New Englands’ warm autumn and very early winter.

  35. Has anyone else seen the new WBZ set? Check my post just above.

    What are your thoughts? It’s not like we have a bunch of snowstorms lined up anytime soon to talk about…certainly not the rest of this year for sure.

    2. Hi Philip.

      I saw the website changes and the graphics look pretty nice. I didnt see the newscast, so, I didnt see those changes…….Reading your comments above, I wonder if working without the chroma key takes some getting used to. I’d think most of the mets going through college practice on it, as we did at Lyndon State. It takes a while to get used to using the monitors off to the side and in the camera to know where your pointing on a blank green screen behind you. If there’s graphics now behind them, that must take some getting used to. I’m thinking maybe they trained on the new stuff before they used it today for the first time live on camera.

    3. The set looks good.
      The weather graphics are the same as WCBS in New York and KYW in Philadelphia. I wonder if all the CBS owned and operated stations are now using the same weather graphics.

      1. Hahaha. John you are the eternal optimist. No wonder we get along. I’ve already switched from hoping for a storm while at the beach in Jan to sitting outside on the deck with a fire in the sand

  38. The new WBZ set was built by local contractors and it is completely environmentally friendly…whatever that means. I am also curious as to how much it cost.

    1. 2 shots of seeing some snow flakes or at least frozen preicpitation. in the next 10 days.
      tuesday and though wednesday sunny highs in the low 40s lows in the upper 20s and low 30s
      wednesday night increasing clouds a chance of rain and snow showers lows in the the lower 30s
      thursday cloudy chance of snow and rain showers changing to all rain showers by mid morning highs in the 40s
      thursday night showers lows in the low 40s
      friday partly sunny with a chance of afternoon showers highs in the upper40s dropping in the afternoon as a front comes through
      friday night clear lows in the 20s
      saturday and sunday cooler highs in the 30s lows in the 20s
      monday warmer highs in the low40s
      this forcast is for areas in interior northeast mass this includes central and northern middlesex and essex counties.
      what are other people thinking about this thursday’s system

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