Thursday February 18 Forecast (4:20PM)

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DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Around the net the last day or so I’ve experienced a lot of folks expecting a high impact storm. No. It’s NOT going to be a high impact storm. It’s going to be a long-duration event, as result of elongated low pressure broken up into a few centers, like an elongated soap bubble wobbling along, instead it will be stretched out low pressure passing just south of New England between today and Friday night. Several inches of snow falling over a 30+ hour period is not going to have a major impact, and it may be that the total accumulation in any given spot will never be how much new snow is actually on the ground, since some of this will melt as or not long after it falls during the daylight hours of Friday. So keep that in mind when viewing the forecast accumulations. A forecast of 4 to 8 inches does NOT mean you will have an instantaneous 8 inches of new snow sitting on every available surface. It may only be 4 inches, it may be 5, 6, 7, 8. The storm probably won’t over-achieve anywhere but it could very well under-achieve in places that happen to miss out on some of the steadier batches of snow. That’s the nature of this kind of system. I cannot stress that enough and it seems like collectively the lesson is never fully learned. Not every storm is a hard-hitting thump of heavy snow that drops all its accumulation in a handful of hours. The weather pattern we are in is conducive to just the kind of system we’re about to experience. At least this time it won’t be an ice storm for anybody. As far as the synoptics of the situation and the next few days go, there are no real changes. The long-lasting passage of the low pressure system takes place, and yes I still expect it to drop as much as 4-8 inches of snow (leaning toward the lower side of the range) in a large portion of the region with under 4 inches in southern NH and north central MA and possibly the islands south of Cape Cod, and then we see it exit by early Saturday, although some instability will mean additional passing clouds and maybe a snow flurry during Saturday, otherwise expect a dry weekend, on the cold side, with a gusty wind Saturday and a much calmer Sunday as high pressure arrives. But we’re not done with the active pattern just yet, and quickly comes another round of unsettled weather on Monday, but this time it will be from a fast-moving but more compact low pressure area, with a little milder air around, so we’ll probably be dealing with a snow/mix/rain situation, not too heavy, and we’ll have to wait until we’re a bit closer to the event for precipitation-type details. After all, that is day 5 of this forecast.

THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING: Overcast with periodic to frequent snow, except mixed with sleet at times South Coast and islands and possibly rain for a time Nantucket. Temperatures generally steady 27-34. Snowfall accumulation 4 to 8 inches except 2 to 4 inches islands and north central MA to southwestern NH. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Lows 20-27. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Risk of a few passing light snow showers. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH morning, becoming variable.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 18-25. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain likely. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

High pressure moves in with fair and slightly milder weather middle of next week before low pressure brings the next unsettled weather threat later in the week.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

Fairly zomal pattern but may tilt more to a northwesterly flow after a quiet ending to February. The early days of March may feature a vigorous disturbance followed by a shot of cold air, but this is low confidence at this time.

82 thoughts on “Thursday February 18 Forecast (4:20PM)”

  3. The intial burst of snow has given me my first 0.1 inch on existing snowcover & cold surfaces. Driveway is dusted, walk is covered, streets are wet. No surprise.

  5. Thank you, TK!

    Looking long-range, still plenty of winter left. After some days in the low 40s it appears a return to colder temps as the month closes out. Except last year, 1st week to 10 days of March has been quite cold (and even snowy at times) every year since 2015.

      1. I don’t pay too much attention to specific temps 10 days out. March 1 … a lot can happen between now & then, but it does look like the pattern relaxes for at least a little while next week. Although his 49 is actually on his DAY 7 forecast. Although I’d be more comfortable going with something a lot closer to 40 or even lower if I had to put a # on it. GFS has a 40 and ECMWF had middle 30s for Boston that day and the guidance tends to over-forecast temps that far in advance in this pattern.

  7. Got it. 8″ Everywhere. Localized heavier amounts.

    Yes, plenty of people reached out to me today saying I thought we were getting 6″ of snow?

    Grrr….

    2. I’ve had a few myself, but I’ve just given them all the short-version of my explanation (if a short version is possible for me). 🙂

      1. Truth….you can explain till the cows come home and it won’t matter. Reading a snow map is not rocket science….nor is listening to a forecast

  8. Ho Hum. Yes, it is snowing. Is it snowing hard? Nope.
    Has it dusted everything white with a coating to 1/2 inch?
    Yup.

    Looks nice, but that’s about it. 🙂

  9. Thanks TK.

    In Norwich CT at my daughters softball practice. Was hoping for a cancellation today but Mother Nature did not cooperate. Snowing lightly and there is definitely a bit more snow on the ground here, maybe 1-1.5”. Roads were just wet and slightly slushy on the way here.

    Widespread 4-5” fell today on the CT shoreline. Round 1 definitely overachieved there, not so much elsewhere.

      1. I was optimistically hoping for a few inches out of round 1 down here. Just couldn’t nudge it north that extra 30 miles, as much as I tried to will it up here!

  10. Just curious. Looking at the weather channel radar through midnight, and it shows no snow reaching Amesbury. When can we expect it to finally reach us?

    1. This will be a long duration event, not snowing the entire time, though some of the steadiest snowfall may occur tomorrow afternoon / evening up that way. I think the majority of the accumulation up there is about 24 hours away.

        1. No changes to all my answers before this. Occasional from now into tomorrow, a bit of enhancement later tomorrow into tomorrow night. 4-8 inches over the ENTIRE period, not all at once, less on pavement. I don’t really expect this to change unless something very unforseen happens.

          1. And that leads me to my next question: Why do lows that follow a fairly similar track and could feed off of plentiful moisture from the Atlantic differ so much in terms of their strength and capacity to produce precipitation. It can’t entirely be explained by positioning of the low, or even temperature contrasts.

            1. Because it’s also a function of the air over our area, and what’s moving by us above. It’s the interaction of all of it when it comes down to it. We’ve been dumped on by weak waves, because there’s great overrunning. We’ve been dusted by passing powerhouse lows because there was too much dry air over us. The entire thing is very complex.

              This is why somebody who sees a low pressure center at 40/70 and automatically assumes “snowstorm” for Boston can often be mistaken.

  11. I mentioned in a earlier post that I’ve been suffering from Lyme disease. My balance has been terrible 42 day regiment doxycycline little effect on the symptoms. I absolutely hate this winter. I love a big snowstorm but not now. Well this afternoon I fell on ice with a light covering of snow on top while walking Charlie&Louie my two cavaliers King Charles Spaniel’s. I fell down and broke my ankle in two areas below the tibia. I will be having surgery next week to repair the damage.

    1. Oh no Robert. I hope this is the worst and things get better from here and hope you get some medicine that helps your Lyme symptoms.

    4. Best wishes to you! Lyme is nasty and I feel it’s still not always taken seriously by all the medical community.

    1. How much? I’d say about a crummy 1/2!

      yeah, 4 hours of steady snow and a 1/2 to show for it. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      IF that.

        1. No. Mine tomorrow. The Mrs can’t get one as it would likely kill here. She can’t even get a flu shot!!

      3. You have to wait until tomorrow to get most of your snow accumulation. You’ll get into the 4-8 range.

        1. I’m more laughing at Dave’s comment than the validity of what Wankum said 🙂

          Looking at the latest HRRR, a steadier light snow will probably hold off till at least 3am like TK said.

  15. Robert, I am so sorry to hear about your ankle, and also your Lyme’s disease. Do take care. We’re all thinking of you.

    1. Thanks I’m in a lot of pain. Hopefully surgery will repair everything next week. What a great group here on WHW.

  16. Nice little band of snow generating right over the city of Boston – pretty spontaneous on that one. This will happen off and on tonight. Should get somewhat steadier for several hours after 3AM.

  22. As expected (not on the blog but elsewhere on the net – weather pages), I’m seeing it: “Where’s the snow?!” ….

    Ok, so, once again, doesn’t an event have to actually occur before we can see what it did? When did so many people become so freaking stupid? Like was noted above, reading & understanding a forecast is not rocket science. How many ways can it be explained in plain English before people actually UNDERSTAND? I’m just sitting here tonight kind of shaking my head … but I have to say my “forecast” of public ignorance was right on the money – maybe even better than my forecast for this snow event is going to be. 😉 … I’m not really mad – just amused, and thus ends my mini rant. 🙂

    I gotta clear some photos from my phone now. 🙂

    1. A lot of people have been asking me “where’s the snow?” (In the same voice as the beef lady from those 80s commercials) this is after I used words like “36 hours”.

      It’s as if they expect a singular four hour storm. Have people never experienced multi hour rain events where the rain stops, clears up for a spell, continues? It’s bizarre.

      1. “Snow” does something to people’s brains. My mother basically just said the exact same thing you did. She’s totally with me on this. I’ve been taking it in stride really, but I’ve been very patient answering people all over the place, nicely. I finally had to blow off some of that steam here but I’m good. I just don’t get it sometimes… It’s just a weather event. 😉

        1. Bostonians are an all or nothing beast. You either have a blockbuster storm or the forecasters have failed us!

          Cue the “if I was this wrong at my job” tweets…

          1. HAHAHA that one has to be my favorite. I’ve heard that one so many times I just laugh at it now. 🙂

            As we speak, I’m on a weather page I admin and am 1) fielding inquiries as to where all the snow is, 2) seeing reports that the storm was a bust because “I only have a coating of snow”, and 3) having to re-explain things I’ve explained numerous times to the same people in the last 2 days.

            Another quote from my mother: “What did everyone take, ‘stupid’ pills?” I love it when she says that. 😀

            1. Spot-on my friend. Not new, and 100% true about social media. I’ve been pretty patient. Had to vent a tad bit of steam tonight but I’m good now. 🙂

  23. JR on Ch 7 just had an excellent and simple explanation of how the area gets to his 3-6 inch prediction. Bravo! Now if people were just paying attention. 🙂

  25. Just came back in from another round of salting . That’s the theme here go out , come back in , check in hour & salt if needed . On & off very , very light snow & now back off .

  26. Now if you read WHW since Monday or before I believe the forecast for Thursday was thickening overcast and some developing late.

    But a lot of weather apps and yes several forecasts had Thursday looking like a snowy day.

    But by Tuesday it was pretty clear that Thursday was not going to be snowy.

    A better Thursday public forecast would have been freezing drizzle, flurries, and scattered snow showers but otherwise cloudy with highs 28-33. Little to no accumulation expected

    Confine the Thursday snow accumulation to the south coastal regions.

    Most then would not have even given Thursday snowfall a second thought.

    Then issue Friday as a new snow forecast.

    Too many people just miss the details and won’t contemplate what a light impact long duration event actually means for practical outcomes.

    2. Yesterday I had a co-worker concerned about not being able to make a short trip into work Thursday morning … cause of the worry: weather app.

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