Friday February 19 2021 Forecast (7:06AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

Elongated low pressure passing just south of New England will continue to cause episodes of snow with additional slow-building accumulation through this evening before gradually ending as snow showers overnight tonight. Additional snowfall accumulations from this system will be 2 to 5 inches, most areas seeing 4 or less additional, but spot 5 inch amounts possible with some ocean-enhancement potential from Seacoast NH into eastern MA. This will bring the snowfall totals for the entire event mostly into the lower halves of the 2-4/4-8 inch ranges previously mentioned, with only spot locations getting to around 6+ total. But again one more reminder that the long-duration of this event and the lack of pavement accumulation of snow make it a less impactful system than if we were getting all of the snowfall accumulation from a heavier burst over a shorter period of time. Saturday, some instability will mean additional passing clouds and possible snow showers, along with a gusty breeze, before high pressure builds in for a dry and cold but more tranquil Sunday with less wind. Low pressure crosses the region Monday with unsettled weather – a precipitation shield that will have a rain/snow line to fine-tune. High pressure builds in with fair weather returning Tuesday.

THROUGH THIS EVENING: Overcast with periodic to frequent snow, except mixed with sleet at times South Coast and islands and possibly rain for a time Nantucket. Additional snowfall accumulation (not including what has already fallen), 2 to 5 inches, most areas under 4 inches. Total snowfall accumulation for event 4 to8 inches with any greater-than-6 inch amounts isolated and favoring eastern MA. Temperatures generally steady 27-34. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Lows 20-27. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Risk of passing snow showers. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH morning, becoming variable.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 18-25. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain likely. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Medium range guidance is struggling trying to identify how things play out as we head through the final days of February. My current feel is that we get back into another boundary zone and have a couple opportunities for unsettled weather, but timing and precipitation type for these would be impossible to really elaborate on this far in advance. Re-evaluation to come.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)

West to northwest flow pattern expected. At least one Pacific low pressure area should make its way across the country to visit us in the early days of March, once again timing uncertain this far into the future. We’ll have to keep an eye on additional cold air building in Canada in early March.

160 thoughts on “Friday February 19 2021 Forecast (7:06AM)”

    1. I’m about to measure “officially” my so-far amount. Estimated near 1 inch here. I think we’ll get another 3 or so here in The Wu through this evening, but it will never seem like that much.

  2. NOTE: The NWS snow map issued early this morning is ADDITIONAL expected snow. It does not include what fell before 7 a.m. today.

  3. Just a dusting in Amesbury and it doesn’t look like much more to come here. I’m fine with that. Come on, Spring!

    1. Just took a peek out and it looks like close to 2 inches or so.

      I am leaving the house at 10 and will take a measurement.

  15. I give up responding to internet commentators today. When people are saying “so this is a dud” I just… do people expect things to be three hour slug fests and nothing else? lol

      1. I did what I have been advised not to by my youngest. I responded. Excellent advice BTW. I am working on getting better at taking it

  19. I wouldn’t call this a dud, because I was not expecting a big storm or anything close. But, I will say I was expecting a little more snow. We are still under an inch in Amesbury and I would be shocked if this area reaches 3 inches. Looks like the series of weak lows just didn’t make their way far enough north.

  20. When’s the last time we had a long duration event like this? Feels like we don’t get many of them but the last two winters were very mild so it makes my memory hazy about the last 36+ hour event.

  21. Thanks, TK. I so appreciate the clarity of your language, in both forecasts and discussions.

    Electronic signs on the Pike midday yesterday read, “winter storm advisory”, and I heard the same thing spoken (somewhat breathlessly) on ‘BZ.
    What?

    1. It should have read “winter weather advisory” to match the NWS issuance.

      From there, anyone unfamiliar with the definition can inform themselves by web page, NWS app, or contacting the NWS. 🙂

        1. Yes…
          But that much graupel would be more rare than that much hail.

          The graupel man might need help to be an actual entity. 😉

  24. Philip what is BOS up to for snowfall in the season so the snowfall standings could be updated. As of 1pm NY is up 4 inches for this system
    NY 37.8 inches for the season so far

  26. Afternoon update.

    One down, one to go. Received first Covid Vaccine dose today.
    So far, so good. No ill effects just yet. I understand sometimes they can appear a day or 2 later.

    Arrived home at Noon and took Measurement:

    3.0 inches on the level.
    ha ha pretty funny as we have so much wind. 🙂

    Nice bad coming through now. Snowing pretty good, border line Moderate. I would estimate vis at between 1/2 and 3/4 mile. Very decent snow and as stated above, beautiful

    Driving was a piece of cake. A non-issue, however, with this band, it is now accumulating on the pavement.

    1. There looks to be a decided back edge to this.

      https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?num=40&type=N0R&mapx=400&mapy=240&brand=wui&delay=15&frame=0&scale=1&transx=0&transy=0&severe=0&smooth=0&centerx=400&centery=240&station=BOX&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&noclutter=0&showlabels=1&showstorms=0&rand=26896014

      Not sure if some will bubble up from the South or if an OES band will set up, but this batch of snow seems destined to end in an hour or 2.

      1. I cannot detect radar echoes coming in from the ocean. Perhaps when the synoptic stuff moves by, will be able to tell.

    3. My wife got her second covid shot last week. The next day she said it felt like a truck hit her. She never complains when she is sick. The next day back to normal

  29. More synoptic snow should fire up from our southwest. OES is definitely occurring from just south of Quincy to about Taunton.

  30. Glad to hear about your first vaccine dose, JPD.

    Postcard snowfall, as Hadi pointed out and TK also alluded to (“a photographer’s dream”).

    It’s been a fantastic month of real winter. No massive snowfalls, but sustained cold (not the oscillations, which tend to drive me nuts), several snow events, expanding ice cover. I really like it. In fact, I prefer this to having a big snowstorm that melts away in 2 days. Best February since 2015 and before that 2011.

    By the way, side streets are now partially covered in snow, and many sidewalks are completely covered. Even the larger streets and avenues are getting some accumulation along the sides of the roads.

  32. Just over 3 total so far.
    I currently have steady light snow falling… It took about 15 minutes to gather the most recent 10th of an inch.

      1. It’s not bad, and it’s probably right on the money. 4 will be an exception though, not the rule.

        I still feel like a lot of people are falling into the “yeah but there isn’t the top number in the range on the ground!” trap. Not you, not really even anyone here on the blog, just people in general. All day I’ve been asked (yet again) by people I’ve encountered in person and on social media what happened to “the storm” and “where’s all the snow?” .. They can find the answer by looking outside and seeing it’s pretty much doing exactly as predicted by all the mets. 🙂 Even if the “final amount” is … *gasp* …. an inch or two or three lower than the top of the range! Oooooooooooooooooooo how could it POSSIBLY do that?! 😀

        1. I am already within your range and most of the Mets ranges. Everything is behaving pretty much as you said it would. Fun little event, even if it was not a block buster. 🙂

  34. I’m going to throw in the towel in Amesbury. We might have reached an inch. I came home from an appointment at 10:15 this morning and there’s not even a coating on my car.

    1. You’ve probably had more than an inch of snow, but recall what I said about the total not seeming like as much as what actually falls because of the slow rate, the solar radiation, and the duration.

      This system was never about the final amount of snow on the ground. That actually becomes quite secondary when we’re having hours upon hours of beautiful, low travel impact snowfall. This is probably the best event of the winter when you take all things into account, and leaving us in a whole lot better shape than Texas is in right now…………. 🙂

      1. If I still lived in North Reading there would have been more consistent snow. Unfortunately, we were shut out for most of the daylight hours. Not disappointed though. Just had a great romp in it with my dog.

      1. That reminds me. I remember having a vastly different temperature for Boston for some # of days out than someone else had (and I can’t remember who it was) and I said let’s write them down and then compare when that day comes. And I can’t remember what day it was for. 😉 OH WELL!

            1. It was about a week ago or so. Listen I love Pete. Had him at the boys school, so this isn’t against him.

                3. I’m thinking it may well have been someone else then since his 10 day back to 2/9 sure doesn’t have 50. Hadi, it isn’t just Pete. I would think anyone here would know that I react when information about any met is shared without a source. Mets get slammed far too often. Some of the comments today….and I absolutely know it is not you…are baseless and as wrong as wrong could be.

                  I’m way too old to stop standing up for the perceived “underdog.” 🙂

  39. It’s getting pretty slick down here I just came from getting my haircut in Halifax & the roads are getting snow covered . They cut me loose from the Hospital around 1:00 .

      1. No we have guys there . Some guys were giving an option to go home & that’s above me . Fortunately I can get overtime without the snow so I was good to go

  40. We have a long way to go in eastern CT, RI, and eastern MA before the snow shuts down. If people have been measuring the snow accurately, a lot of locations are going to be at 4 inches or greater when this is over with in these areas.

    1. The problem with measuring is that the initial snow after a clear melts for a fair amount of time. Your comment re having had more than we measure is both accurate and something I was thinking earlier this afternoon

      1. Yes. Snow measurement can be a challenge especially in duration events with diurnal issues, sublimation issues, settling issues, and in shorter-duration events in which compaction can be an issue.

  42. The 18z GFS op run has high temps of around 15F for March 5 for the Boston area. LOCK IT IN! 😉

    1. Indeed.

      While it’s not going to be that cold – at least unlikely – I’ve been reading about a cold spell coming in the first week of March. In 2019 we had several days in early to mid March of maximum temps that didn’t get out of the 20s.

      There’s plenty of cold air across Canada. We’ll see what happens and how the jet stream behaves, etc …

      1. I know I mentioned it in the blog comments somewhere the last couple days that we had to keep an eye on Canadian cold.. I may have even posted it in today’s discussion on DAYS 11-15. I’m too lazy to go back and look. 😉

        2. If that Canadian cold isn’t accompanied by a very strong southern stream, your outlook may fall short. 😉

          43.8 or 48.7? Depends on which number you use.

  44. Must be closing in on 6+ here. Everything is covered. Out in Dedham right now and it’s still coming down.

    1. In Back Bay more than 4 inches have accumulated (measured late afternoon), and I believe we’re closing in on 5. 6 or more is possible. We’ll see.

      Roads are now at least partly covered pretty much everywhere.

  46. The last 2 hours have probably featured the steadiest and “heaviest” (not heavy, moderate, but heaviest in comparison) snow I’ve had from this entire event. Frankly, it was end of Friday afternoon & early evening when I was expecting this to peak. Here it is…

    I’ll have a final snowfall number for you later tonight. Once this wraps up I will do my 3rd and final snow clearing.

  48. We picked up another .5 (total 3) when granddaughter and I measured a bit ago. I’m guessing a big more since then

  50. 3rd cleaning my neighbors and I did. Didn’t do a measurement but must be close to 7-8 inches. We lost some last night so unsure of exact numbers, but it’s been moderate to heavy for a while.

  51. Quite a closing act this system has.

    On Outer Cape. We were too far north yesterday and missed that south coast heavier stuff.

    We’ve had about 24 hrs of snow flurries, ice pellets, some drizzle, until about 5pm.

    Since then, moderate snow, maybe even heavy occasionally. The plows just took a pass down rte 6. I’d say there’s 2 new inches of snow in the past 3 hrs and it’s piling up quickly.

    I like seeing snow on the Cape, but it’s strange. I’ve spent so many summer days down here with haze, summer humidity and big crowds.

  52. 30 DBZ snow has set up in an Organized Line from SW to NE from say Uxbridge to Newburyport and then another more disorganized line from Westerly to Hingham . Areas under these lines will probably pick up another 1-2″ of fluff.

    Done here. Got about 2.5″ over 30 hours from 2pm 2/18 to 8pm 2/19. Most areas in the valley got about 1-3″ I went for 2-4″ in this area. So not perfect but ok.

      1. You would have done really well. I saw an Allston report of 4.5″ as of 8pm. But highly variable with the fluff factor for sure.

        This storm will have something for all types. The ones who want a big total will be able to find it. Those who want to say what a bust, well the max achieved snowfall total will probably never actually be on the ground, so they will say, see I told you so…

        Fluff will rapidly evaporate tomorrow.

        Fun long one – That had something for all, but limited trouble for most.

  54. The main road I live next to was wet for the entire event….until now. Snowcovered, plows needed. Heaviest snow of the entire event in progress here in Woburn but nearing the end of that band, and then it will gradually diminish through 10 or 11PM at my location.

    2. We had a plow pass the afternoon for the first time. They will need to plow a second time. Daughter and SIL were out around 6:30 and said the roads were getting a bit greasy for the first time other than the initial blast of snow pellets Thursday night

      I just measured. We picked up an inch in the band JMA mentioned. Up to 3.5.

  55. On the radar loop that JPD sent you can really see the yellows blossom and expand. It’s been moderate to heavy snow for a while now in Back Bay, with steady accumulation.

    1. Don’t think NYC got the kind of accumulation Boston is getting. My guess is Boston takes the lead in the winter tally after all is said and done from this elongated event. It must be 6 inches here by now with some more on the way.

    1. Indeed, could be.

      Plows are now going down Beacon Street and not just salting.

      What was a not so impactful event has become a bit more so.

  57. Two things:

    After almost 36 hours of frustration, we are finally getting our steady, beautiful snow tonight. Just came in from an exhilarating walk with the dog.

    TK is amazing. Last night he told me the bulk of our snow up here would come tonight. Again, he nailed it. It’s not exaggerating to say he is the best.

    1. I saw the comment as I posted just after you did. I took his comment literally….that you were “the only one to report 6 so far”. I wonder if he meant just that ??

  59. Just in from a walk as well. Under the streetlights the shadows from the snowflakes looked like small flies lifting around like inverse fireflies.

    1. I love love that. A neighbor has a light shining up on the flag he flies and the flakes dance in that also I love watching

  60. Indeed, Mel, TK is really good.

    Still snowing in Boston. Still accumulating on the streets. Just came in from a walk. Back Bay and Beacon Hill look magical. This would have been a picture-perfect Christmas snow. I know we’ve had some snowstorms around Christmas. But somehow this one is so Christmas-like.

  61. Hadi, like you I also must have 6 inches of snow by now – though I didn’t measure. So, I’m unsure what Eric F is thinking. My guess is there will be some reports of 7 or 8 inches of snow in some locales; maybe even a Boston neighborhood or two.

    1. Yeah I am positive we are over 6 if not closer to 8 inches. Not sure why people get in a tizzy over the numbers we come up with. I am not making it up. I know guys get concerned over a few inches 🙂 lol

      1. Hahahaha. You didn’t get to work with Todd Gross. He was a pain in the tuckas…but was also a great teacher and stressed that numbers matter when reported. Eyeballing was definitely not a word in his vocabulary. I still second and third guess any number I report.

        1. I have a very good sense for the snow and I measure all the time. Just didn’t do a last one which was going to be the biggest.

          I get that mets get annoyed when their forecasts don’t work out as projected, but that doesn’t mean we are wrong when we give our numbers.

  63. Heading out for the final snow removal momentarily. Most of you will probably be asleep when I get in but I’ll post my final snowfall amount from Woburn when I get in. 🙂

  64. 3.7” the final total here in Coventry CT. Measured 2” this am after the first 24 hours of snow and 1.7” today after the second 12 hours of snow. Unfortunately the heavier missed us to the south yesterday and to the east today. Ahh well, it was a pretty couple of days and the clearing was easy….

    Totals from the NWS…

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=PNS&issuedby=BOX

    Westwood the big winner with 7”. A couple of 6” reports from Suffolk Co. as well.

  65. Final snowfall at Woburn: 6.4 inches.
    Picked up about three and a half inches from tonight’s finale.

    Now if I had only made that bet with Pete and Jeremy, my 6.5 inch prediction would have won me a whole lot of pizza!

        1. I agree. Pete dropped his numbers so I think was lower than others but need to check that. Others were right n the ballpark. Based on forecasts I was thinking 4 here and 4 is what we got.

  68. So final totals from this system BOS with 5.7 inches. Thank you Philip for providing that info and NY 4.4
    Updated Standings
    BOS 38.4
    NY 38.2

  69. Very light feather flake snow shower here in Woburn (and nearby areas) at the moment. This little batch of snow should survive into Daveland & the Hadizone. 😉

    1. Daveland & the Hadizone. Good one TK. 🙂 🙂 🙂 Not here just yet. I have been watching it approach on radar.
      Would this be the .1 inch you said would come on Saturday?
      See, I WAS paying attention.

      1. Flakes here at Mass. Art, as well as falling snow crashing down from the tops of the dorms. Just fluff, no ice, thankfully. 🙂

      2. Well in my morning discussion I did mention “no accumulation” so can I be right AND wrong about the same thing? 😉

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