Saturday February 20 2021 Forecast (9:11AM)

92 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Like little sprinkles of powdered sugar upon the wintry cake Mother Nature slow baked for us over the last couple days, light snow showers are adding some flakes to the top as they roam across the region this morning from south central and southeastern NH across parts of eastern MA. Actually, the atmosphere being somewhat unstable today, we may see a few more of these pop up through the afternoon, but with no accumulation, and most of the day generally dry and cold in a northwest flow behind the storm and in advance of high pressure, which today will be centered over the eastern Ohio Valley. This high center will slide eastward just to the south of New England Sunday, which will feature lots of sun and less wind, but still chilly air. The jet stream express train will bring the next low pressure system into and across New England Monday, center passing north of our area Monday evening. Its trailing warm front / cold front combo will bring a period or two of precipitation, probably starting as snow for most (maybe mix/rain South Coast) but a warmer air invasion above will probably flip this to a rain situation for most areas in the I-95 belt southeastward, with snow most likely holding on well to the northwest in north central MA and southwestern NH, with a mix zone between. This will not be a big precipitation producer. I’ll just have to detail the precip-type distribution as it gets closer. This system is out of here and fair weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday, first with a bit cooler air Tuesday, then a quick moderation for Wednesday. If it were not for snow cover that will still be on the ground, we’d probably reach or exceed 50 that day, but my early call is to hold the temperatures in the 40s due to the refrigeration-effect. Still, looks like a nice day Wednesday – one that may kick-start your spring dreams. 🙂 Just remember where we live and don’t get too used to the milder air. 😉

TODAY: Clouds dominant this morning with a few snow showers likely. Variably cloudy, bit more sun, but also isolated snow showers afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH morning, becoming variable.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 18-25. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix arriving midday-afternoon, becoming mix interior and northwest and rain coastal and southeastern areas. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Evening rain showers possible. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Quick turn to colder but dry weather February 25-26 – small storm system may pass south of the region February 26. Next threat of unsettled weather comes over the February 27-28 weekend with fair weather returning to end the period. This represents a more zonal flow pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)

West to northwest flow pattern expected. Low confidence on timing, but early call is unsettled weather with passing low pressure March 2, variable temperatures, one more disturbance around mid period and a shot of colder air following.

92 thoughts on “Saturday February 20 2021 Forecast (9:11AM)”

  4. Nice starting sentence, TK. Thank you. It is a beautious morning. I think I made up that word.

    I went back to check the always appreciated Dr Stupid maps. Below is the compilation for Wednesday evening. I think long duration storms are a mental challenge for folks …not here I don’t think but surely elsewhere. Part of the challenge of a second map with numbers only apply to the second day and then adding those to the totals of the previous day

    All of that said, and looking at the maps below, I’d say every met did a damned good job…including you, sir. Pete was lowest but still in the ballpark. NWS was dragged over the coals in the comments on its FB posts…yet look at its numbers.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EudbXGlXIAYzS3E?format=jpg&name=large

    1. Well, now the wind has picked up and turned that cake sprinkle into what looks like a toddler throwing a bag of flour amidst a tantrum. 😉

      Mets did well! It was easy to bite on the lower numbers with the slow start and the guidance not really helping. Pete, on air, said something like this (paraphrased): “Every time I cave and lower my numbers I end up getting burned! I’m going to hold to my numbers”. I guess he did eventually lower them but to what end? Really not a bad forecast still if you miss a 15:1 ratio snowfall by a couple inches. It was largely fluff, or using Pete’s descriptive chart, goose down & flour. 😀

      The people blasting NWS on their FB page are either clueless, or trolls. People like that need to, as my mother says, “GET A LIFE!” 😉

    2. For Logan, with the exception of Fox 25 and NWS, focus on the HIGHER numbers on those ranges…for a change. 🙂

    3. Glad to hear that. The first installment is simply a prepping of your immune system so most people do well since the immune system is not yet mounting an immune response. Instead, the vaccine is providing your body with instructions to manufacture the spike protein. Adverse effects are more common upon receiving the second shot 28 days later when your body actually mounts an immune response against what it believes to be the real virus. It is actually a good thing to experience side effects this go around. It simply means that the vaccine is doing what it was intended to do by providing you with the immunity you need should you ever encounter the real virus in the future.

      2. Thanks arod. It is interesting that Macs brothers daughter had a very strong reaction to first and much stronger to second. She is a speech pathologist and was in the hospital setting at the start of this. I have wondered if that meant that the reaction to #1 means that she had already built up some immunity.

      3. 100% correct . Arod I’m two weeks this Monday from getting my second moderna shot is it 3 weeks until I’m 100% vaccinated. Thanks

    4. Excellent! My mom goes for #1 today at “1:46 p.m.” .. yes, her appointment was that specific. 😉

    5. People do not have as much of a reaction to the Moderna compared to the Pfizer but usually you feel it the second dose which means the first one works and you have a strong immunity. My Dad had no side effects/symptoms when he got his second moderna dose so here is hoping I don’t feel anything then again I got the Pfizer shot which is the only one they have down here. They are hoping the entire territory down here is vaccinated by May.

    6. It’s the second one old salty for some reason . I had absolutely 0 side effects from first one . Second one got sick ( it’s called a good sick ) but very , very manageable, but everyone is different. It’s a 50 / 50 shot if you get sick & if you do it’s 24 hrs tops . I would plan on two sick days after second shot .

  9. Thank you, TK!

    Beautiful snowfall. The snow had compacted by this morning, as I measured 4.8 inches – I am sure there was closer to 6. But, in the end, it doesn’t matter. It was a glorious winter gift.

    The trolls and others who blast mets with vitriol and venom need to indeed GET A LIFE as TK puts it. Even if a met or model got it totally wrong – which really didn’t happen this time – is it that important in the grand scheme of things?

    My goodness, there are so many truly tragic things happening in the world – like the hotel fire in Texas that JPD mentioned – you wonder where people’s priorities are.

    1. Sadly, a lot of people exist with priorities that include trying to tear other people down. These people should probably focus on making themselves better people. But a lot of them already think they’re top of the line for some odd reason.

    2. What made me the saddest was that, rather than enjoying the absolute beauty of this storm and nature in general, so many spent time attacking what was actually very well done

      1. It is disheartening to see that…
        The expectation of perfection, and it is an unreasonable expectation when you look at what is being attempted here.

  10. Thanks TK.

    Even though we’re mostly not too far above average, this winter has definitely had the feel of one where the atmosphere just wants to snow no matter what. I guess most of January would be the exception, but when we’ve had events, there have definitely been more overperformers than underperformers.

    Hard to see how it keeps up though. We’ll be kind of up and down on temperatures the next week or two, and definitely drier than we’ve been. But seems the trend is warmer with time, and with the breakdown of the blocking pattern and stronger/more persistent Southeast ridging, we may be in for an early spring…

    1. I agree with this.
      While both “logically” and climato”logically” you and I both know that you can’t just write off arctic invasions and winter weather threats from here through March, it is becoming apparent that the odds are stacking against snow opportunities. Makes sense as we round the final curve.

      I’m completely in on the early spring idea, especially in comparison to the majority of years around here recently.

      P.S. I love the phrase “the atmosphere wants to snow”. I’ve used this so many times, especially since the 1990s.

        1. We can never rule snow out in New England in March & April, no matter what the outlook is in February…

      1. She can’t get one. We think she will live much longer NOT taking the vaccine. We think the vaccine would kill her.
        She can’t even take a flu shot. She is allergic to almost everything. It is virtually impossible just to keep her fed.

          1. Yes, that is what went into the family discussion.
            If I get protected, then I may be able to go out and do the shopping instead of paying a premium to have food delivered. Also, I may be required to go back into the office and I certainly don’t want to bring anything home with me.

            Getting that vaccine at the office beats the crap out a mass vaccination site. No lines to get in etc. Much much better. I got Moderna, but would have preferred pfzer, but I can’t be choosey. y son was please because he read Moderna might be better against the SA variant.

            2. I agree with SSK. You are an amazing husband

              Macs brother ….involved in healthcare….said he had been told the same re moderna.

        2. She is the reason it is necessary to figure out the vaccines also makes people unable to transmit the virus to others not just protect those with the vaccine

  13. Thanks TK
    Updated Snowfall Standings
    BOS 38.4
    NY 38.2
    Did this system put BOS in the lead for good, will there be a change at the top position, or does it come down to a one game snowfall event in March to decide it???

    1. Hahahaha. Thanks. I am an Eric fan…and Pete and JR and Matt and Berry and Harvey and Tim…..and our TK. I do always come here first.

      1. Well no early spring for the next two weeks anyway on that run. Let’s see if we can squeeze a few more chances out of this pattern while we can. Keep your Santa outfit handy!

        1. Even though our pattern is relaxing, that phrase of early spring mentioned before is not really one that I’m going to be applying to the next two weeks….

          We are not about to see a repeat in the US of the cold wave that just happened, but up here in the northern tier, and I believe especially the upper Midwest to Northeast we are going to have enough northwesterly flow that we still get some good shots of cold air from Canada for a while. Combine this with the right timing of moisture from one of the jet streams and….

          No, winter is not over.

  16. I found the BOS/NYC comment I made. It was posted 4 days ago, on Tuesday evening, so in case you missed it, here’s a self-quote (haha!):

    “In the great NYC vs Boston snowfall race of 2020-2021, since we are having fun with this, should net about the same for both cities for the upcoming event, if it plays out the way I think it will…

    NYC will make a run to or above 25 inches for February, making it the snowiest February since their 29 inch February 2013. This, combined with their first double digit December snowfall (11 inches) in 11 years and their modest 2.1 inch January snowfall will have them closing in on the 40 inch mark for the season to date… By the end of Friday, Boston’s seasonal snowfall will be in the same ballpark … yup, I had to say “ballpark” because I’m all about puns.”

  17. 12Z euro likes the beginning of March. Not that it would be a block buster, but an opportunity to add to our snow totals:

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021022012/228/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021022012/234/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021022012/240/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021022012/240/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

  19. Thank you TK!
    Mark you and I received exactly the same amount of snow from this one. JPD glad to hear you are handling the vaccine well with no side affects.

  20. Well, it looks like we picked up an even 6 inches here in JP.
    2 inches measured Friday AM, 2 inches measured Friday around 5 PM or so, and 2 inches measured this morning.

    46 inches on the year so far.

  21. Generally a fine forecast. One of the interesting things about this winter is some of the hyper local nature of accumulations, but this event was a bit more uniform. Last night’s accumulations were not so much about OES but synoptic bands that moved SW to NE.

    Mostly 4-6″ amounts. Less than that west and there were those eastern locations that did better.

    Truthfully, I think these type of storms produce many suspect snowfall reports. Many are probably an 1″ plus higher, but on the other hand the higher amounts are much less impactful than such a high total would suggest, both on the roads and how quickly the fluff snow disappears.

    Anyone notice Norfolk County has become a sneaky jackpot zone this season?

    As for the mid and long term models. Yeah, just let them be. Remember those ECMWF and GFS maps being circulated around February 12-14th that showed 20-24″ snow totals over the next two weeks in SNE and a deep freeze that would last 0into early March? Well the snow totals during the period will be less than half that and this week will feature temperatures in the 40s.

    There are no broad proclamations about what March or April holds. Yes the calendar tells us the snow chances reduce with each passing day, but it will snow in SNE, but there will also come a day where it will get into the 50s and then a day in the 60s will come and they day after that it could snow. How about that for a March and April prediction?

    One other annual reminder, light daytime snowfall becomes increasingly less impactful and model generated snowfall maps are not worth the burn they will put in your soul and break in your heart. You name it, 10:1, Kuchera, Cobb, they all are lousy as March rolls on.

    1. Thank you JMA. Good reminders.

      Once we get to March or especially Mid-March, I am fine with
      real Spring rolling in.

      I would really like one or 2 events, whatever it takes, to get Boston to average or above. That means Logan is about 10 inches shy of the New Average. Also need it for TK’s Winter snowfall forecast to verify.

  23. Made it to Gillette today. It took some time, but it is run efficiently. After you get your shot, they can schedule the 2nd one for you … took 15 minutes to get the 2nd one scheduled.

  24. Beautiful photos, JPD.

    As JMA reminds us we’re entering a fluid period, if you will, in terms of SNE weather. Winter’s not done with us yet. But, it’s losing its grip as daylight increases. Oscillation is the operative word. It’s what makes spring so special, in the eyes of some, and so darn frustrating, in the eyes of others. I’ve always found March through May the least predictable and most unstable 3-month period on the calendar.

  25. TK – Where did you get that new “30-year normal” snowfall amount? Can you provide a website link? I am curious for other cities as well.

    Imho…48.7 seems awfully high to me for Boston, especially Logan no less. The old 43.8 seemed much more realistic.

    50 inches???

    1. I got the info from Mishelle Michaels & confirmed by SAK. I’ll see if I can find a link – mobile now.

  26. Thanks, TK:

    Robert, I am sorry to hear about your medical troubles. Here’s hoping and praying for a quick recovery!

    Here’s a new one in the world of sports and weather:

    On Saturday, the Vegas Golden Knights had a 1-0 lead over the Colorado Avalanche going into intermission. But issues with the ice were apparent during the first period and the game had to be delayed. Those issues being the ice was turning into slush. Ruts formed and players and referees both stumbled and tumbled all over the place.

    The game is in a sun delay.

    The first period intermission will be around seven hours long with the game set to resume at midnight ET.

    Tomorrow’s Bruins-Flyers is now a night game. Puck drop is now 7:30 pm ET.

      1. If they put the correct refrigeration units in there (correct btus etc), they wouldn’t have this problem Just like Texas, cut corners and it Will bite you in the ass. Sort like trying to cl a 400 sq foot room with a 5’000 btu ac only in reverse!!! Idiots! No excuse for that in 2021!!!!

        1. Cl = cool

          Even if they had the correct units, pretty foolish not to build in some excess capacity in case there was ever a problem.

          Perhaps it is just due to some equipment problem, but when you say it is a sun delay, Smells like a capacity problem to me.

          1. No, it was a sun problem. The forecast was for some cloudcover, and they had none, and temperatures were warmer than they expected. Most of the outdoor games in the past were in January, so sun angle wasn’t a problem. However, late February, in Tahoe (at 6300 feet), with 100% sun will cause issues. Just look at what happens here at sea-level with snow and ice during the day when it’s sunny, no matter what the temperature.

            That’s why they delayed the rest of the game until after dark, and why the Bruins game there won’t be starting until sunset.

    2. Thanks for your kid word’s. I’m going to see surgeon Monday to get my ankle put back together.

  29. Our office made the front page of the Globe for our vaccination efforts. Pretty cool. This photo is our main lobby taken from just inside the Community Room where the vaccinations were given.

    https://ibb.co/TmCNqDk

    This is where I received mine yesterday earlier in day prior to this photo being taken. Because of the work we do for Elders, Any staff member who wanted to be vaccinated could be.

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