17 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – February 21 2021”
I got on an MBTA bus recently and as I sat down, there was an elderly gentleman sitting directly across carrying an oxygen tank with tubes up his nose. He was not wearing a mask, not even on his chin.
Joshua, is this individual the rare exception and can go anywhere without a mask and cannot be denied entry? I believe even those with COPD no longer have that exception.
Good question. I don’t know. I do hope he was able to get vaccinated. He’s certainly in a risk group.
By the way, I just finished reading “The Great Influenza” by John Barry. It’s about the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-1920.
The Spanish Flu – misnomer, as it originated in Kansas – killed between 50 and 100 million worldwide. Unlike most pandemics, it killed a disproportionate number of young people between 18 and 40. It came in 3 distinct wave, the 1st and 3rd being milder than the 2nd.
While it was far worse than the current novel coronavirus pandemic, there are some parallels. The Spanish Flu mutated, first becoming more lethal and then less so. Scientists did their best to produce vaccines, though none of them worked particularly well – they also weren’t vetted by an oversight agency. Mask mandates, closures, shutdowns, and quarantining were enforced. But, just as today, public health measures were politicized, with many downplaying the disease until it was too late. Though they didn’t have a name for it like “long Covid” many of those who recovered continued to have respiratory, neurological, and sometimes cardiovascular symptoms. This puzzled clinicians as much then as it does today.
Thanks Joshua. Very interesting info.
I would also be curious if there was a “variant” and if race was a factor like today’s Covid.
I suspect Covid will last 2 years as well. 2020-2022. No way masks and restrictions come off this year, that’s for sure.
Even though I never read the book, I can’t believe that the Spanish Flu was worse than this coronavirus.
Thanks, Joshua. I have the book in my library, but so far have not read.
My mom lost a brother in his first year of life before she was born. She told me her parents…especially her dad….were VERY overprotective because they were afraid of losing her also. This was to the point of her dad building their home with a wind on either side and doors that opened so she could roller skate from side to side in the house.
I do have a point that I’m getting to 😉 ;).
My mom was born in 1914. I wonder now if much of my grandparents overprotective tendencies were due to the 1918 flu.
I do chuckle when I hear it called Spanish when the first known case was at a military base in Kansas. Apparently, we have not advanced very much in naming viruses.
This is an interesting read. There are a number great articles and of course the book you just completed, Joshua.
Thank you so much for the post and the link, Vicki. Really interesting family history, and yes the Spanish Flu does indeed explain behaviors like being overprotective.
Like today’s “helicopter parents”.
I often wonder what parents were thinking during the polio scare. With credit to my parents, they never caused concern for either my brother or me
Philip, there’s no doubt the misnamed “Spanish flu” was far worse: Between 50 and 100 million dead. The novel coronavirus has killed between 2.4 and 3.4 million thus far. While I am sure there will be at least several hundred thousand more deaths worldwide, we’re not going to get even close to the fatalities produced by the 1918-1920 pandemic. Still, it’s a very bad pandemic. And we’re not done with it yet. I’m confident we will be at some point this year. But, there are several wildcards that could throw us for a loop.
Speaking of lockdowns – and I know I’ve said this before – we’ve never had a real lockdown in this country. A real lockdown (note, I’m NOT defending it, just reporting it) is like the one imposed in the UK since early December. It prohibits travel outside a radius of about 15 to 20 miles. And that’s enforced. In France it was even more draconian at one time. You had to have a document – a permission slip – to travel anywhere, even for groceries.
Here’s one of many examples; see link below. Please note, Derbyshire is really not that far from London. It’s like going from Boston to Albany NY. And it’s a very big deal in Britain that someone violated the travel restriction to that degree. Made the news.
We’ve NEVER had and never will have a lockdown like that. We have had the softest of soft “stay-at-home orders” and meaningless so-called travel quarantines.
This is also why I can’t really go to the UK yet to see my daughter. Even though the U.S. has been exempted from the hotel quarantine (10 days) I really would be forced to stay in my daughter’s apartment and not go anywhere throughout my stay, or risk a massive fine – 500 to 1,000 pounds per infraction.
Well, since one of the new variants came from the U.K., a lot good the lockdowns did. Sorry you can’t go there to see your daughter.
I guess this means even “true” lockdowns have really no effect in the long term. Just as well the U.S. never really adopted one.
Thanks Joshua for enlightening me regarding the number of deaths. You are absolutely correct, not even remotely close.
I believe that this one probably seems more devastating due to so many institutions shutting down and/or going out of business completely. During the previous pandemic did most institutions (museums, schools, restaurants, bars, etc.) continue to operate as normal anyway?
I may try and purchase that 1918-20 pandemic book.
The lockdown in Chile was also severe. Whether we should have had lockdowns is something history will show. I do not have an ounce o f doubt that history will show our approach was disastrous.
Philip, just to be accurate, the lockdown in Britain didn’t begin until December. They also had one in March of last year, but that was relatively short-lived. The lockdown in December did produce the desired effect, though it took about 3 to 4 weeks (which is normal). Their caseload went down from around 50-55k per day to 10k per day. Hospitalizations and deaths have also decreased significantly, though not by as much (which suggests the severity of the B.1.1.7 variant).
Lockdowns were common during the 1918-1920 period. They were also periodic, and locale-dependent. And yes, this definitely included bars, restaurants, museums, and schools.
It would have to include all places where spread was likely among crowds of people.
Major outbreaks were sparked by city mayors – like the one in Philadelphia – refusing to cancel parades and rallies. Led to thousands of deaths. Sound familiar?
I am not in favor of draconian lockdowns. But, I am definitely in favor of the closure of certain businesses and places where people congregate, at least for periods of time to curb the spread. The businesses need to be supported, to be sure, and they should. It’s why I am in favor of a Covid tax to pay for maintaining small businesses. It’ll never happen, but it is my position. I’d gladly pay a Covid tax, earmarked for support of small businesses.
I just heard an interview with Dr. Fauci and he believes masks will still be required well into 2022. Ideally he wants the cases down to as close to “zero” as humanly possible. 🙁
I didn’t think we’d be suddenly able to abandon masks when only “some” of the people were vaccinated. Dr. F. pretty much always alluded to needing them for quite a while still. Perhaps he didn’t have a more exact time (and still doesn’t) because, like weather, this is also science-based. There are always some unknowns and some tweaks. When people take those and turn them into political tools then the actual meaning loses all effectiveness. But as the doc thinks we may be wearing them into next year, he also thinks that we’re going to be largely back to normal by the 2021 holiday season.
C-19 for 2-22 is ready.
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I got on an MBTA bus recently and as I sat down, there was an elderly gentleman sitting directly across carrying an oxygen tank with tubes up his nose. He was not wearing a mask, not even on his chin.
Joshua, is this individual the rare exception and can go anywhere without a mask and cannot be denied entry? I believe even those with COPD no longer have that exception.
Good question. I don’t know. I do hope he was able to get vaccinated. He’s certainly in a risk group.
By the way, I just finished reading “The Great Influenza” by John Barry. It’s about the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-1920.
The Spanish Flu – misnomer, as it originated in Kansas – killed between 50 and 100 million worldwide. Unlike most pandemics, it killed a disproportionate number of young people between 18 and 40. It came in 3 distinct wave, the 1st and 3rd being milder than the 2nd.
While it was far worse than the current novel coronavirus pandemic, there are some parallels. The Spanish Flu mutated, first becoming more lethal and then less so. Scientists did their best to produce vaccines, though none of them worked particularly well – they also weren’t vetted by an oversight agency. Mask mandates, closures, shutdowns, and quarantining were enforced. But, just as today, public health measures were politicized, with many downplaying the disease until it was too late. Though they didn’t have a name for it like “long Covid” many of those who recovered continued to have respiratory, neurological, and sometimes cardiovascular symptoms. This puzzled clinicians as much then as it does today.
Thanks Joshua. Very interesting info.
I would also be curious if there was a “variant” and if race was a factor like today’s Covid.
I suspect Covid will last 2 years as well. 2020-2022. No way masks and restrictions come off this year, that’s for sure.
Even though I never read the book, I can’t believe that the Spanish Flu was worse than this coronavirus.
Thanks, Joshua. I have the book in my library, but so far have not read.
My mom lost a brother in his first year of life before she was born. She told me her parents…especially her dad….were VERY overprotective because they were afraid of losing her also. This was to the point of her dad building their home with a wind on either side and doors that opened so she could roller skate from side to side in the house.
I do have a point that I’m getting to 😉 ;).
My mom was born in 1914. I wonder now if much of my grandparents overprotective tendencies were due to the 1918 flu.
I do chuckle when I hear it called Spanish when the first known case was at a military base in Kansas. Apparently, we have not advanced very much in naming viruses.
This is an interesting read. There are a number great articles and of course the book you just completed, Joshua.
https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended
Thank you so much for the post and the link, Vicki. Really interesting family history, and yes the Spanish Flu does indeed explain behaviors like being overprotective.
Like today’s “helicopter parents”.
I often wonder what parents were thinking during the polio scare. With credit to my parents, they never caused concern for either my brother or me
Philip, there’s no doubt the misnamed “Spanish flu” was far worse: Between 50 and 100 million dead. The novel coronavirus has killed between 2.4 and 3.4 million thus far. While I am sure there will be at least several hundred thousand more deaths worldwide, we’re not going to get even close to the fatalities produced by the 1918-1920 pandemic. Still, it’s a very bad pandemic. And we’re not done with it yet. I’m confident we will be at some point this year. But, there are several wildcards that could throw us for a loop.
Speaking of lockdowns – and I know I’ve said this before – we’ve never had a real lockdown in this country. A real lockdown (note, I’m NOT defending it, just reporting it) is like the one imposed in the UK since early December. It prohibits travel outside a radius of about 15 to 20 miles. And that’s enforced. In France it was even more draconian at one time. You had to have a document – a permission slip – to travel anywhere, even for groceries.
Here’s one of many examples; see link below. Please note, Derbyshire is really not that far from London. It’s like going from Boston to Albany NY. And it’s a very big deal in Britain that someone violated the travel restriction to that degree. Made the news.
We’ve NEVER had and never will have a lockdown like that. We have had the softest of soft “stay-at-home orders” and meaningless so-called travel quarantines.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-derbyshire-56148538?
This is also why I can’t really go to the UK yet to see my daughter. Even though the U.S. has been exempted from the hotel quarantine (10 days) I really would be forced to stay in my daughter’s apartment and not go anywhere throughout my stay, or risk a massive fine – 500 to 1,000 pounds per infraction.
Well, since one of the new variants came from the U.K., a lot good the lockdowns did. Sorry you can’t go there to see your daughter.
I guess this means even “true” lockdowns have really no effect in the long term. Just as well the U.S. never really adopted one.
Thanks Joshua for enlightening me regarding the number of deaths. You are absolutely correct, not even remotely close.
I believe that this one probably seems more devastating due to so many institutions shutting down and/or going out of business completely. During the previous pandemic did most institutions (museums, schools, restaurants, bars, etc.) continue to operate as normal anyway?
I may try and purchase that 1918-20 pandemic book.
The lockdown in Chile was also severe. Whether we should have had lockdowns is something history will show. I do not have an ounce o f doubt that history will show our approach was disastrous.
Philip, just to be accurate, the lockdown in Britain didn’t begin until December. They also had one in March of last year, but that was relatively short-lived. The lockdown in December did produce the desired effect, though it took about 3 to 4 weeks (which is normal). Their caseload went down from around 50-55k per day to 10k per day. Hospitalizations and deaths have also decreased significantly, though not by as much (which suggests the severity of the B.1.1.7 variant).
Lockdowns were common during the 1918-1920 period. They were also periodic, and locale-dependent. And yes, this definitely included bars, restaurants, museums, and schools.
It would have to include all places where spread was likely among crowds of people.
Major outbreaks were sparked by city mayors – like the one in Philadelphia – refusing to cancel parades and rallies. Led to thousands of deaths. Sound familiar?
I am not in favor of draconian lockdowns. But, I am definitely in favor of the closure of certain businesses and places where people congregate, at least for periods of time to curb the spread. The businesses need to be supported, to be sure, and they should. It’s why I am in favor of a Covid tax to pay for maintaining small businesses. It’ll never happen, but it is my position. I’d gladly pay a Covid tax, earmarked for support of small businesses.
I just heard an interview with Dr. Fauci and he believes masks will still be required well into 2022. Ideally he wants the cases down to as close to “zero” as humanly possible. 🙁
I didn’t think we’d be suddenly able to abandon masks when only “some” of the people were vaccinated. Dr. F. pretty much always alluded to needing them for quite a while still. Perhaps he didn’t have a more exact time (and still doesn’t) because, like weather, this is also science-based. There are always some unknowns and some tweaks. When people take those and turn them into political tools then the actual meaning loses all effectiveness. But as the doc thinks we may be wearing them into next year, he also thinks that we’re going to be largely back to normal by the 2021 holiday season.
C-19 for 2-22 is ready.