Monday February 22 2021 Forecast (7:32AM)

90 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

Low pressure will cross New England today bringing unsettled weather with it. Despite a cold start this morning, and it being cold enough to start out as snow north and west of Boston and maybe brief snow or mix near the city, enough mild air will be involved so that areas to the southeast start as rain and areas that start as snow turn to mix/rain after a possible small accumulation. All of this departs from west to east during this evening. Another disturbance racing eastward will cause some cloudiness Tuesday, but any minor precipitation associated with that should not really make it beyond the mountains to our north and west, so it should be a dry day here. Wednesday will be the pick of the week with high pressure in control and the mildest fair-weather air we’ve had in a while. A cold front quickly crosses the region later Wednesday night and early Thursday morning with no more than a rain shower and a secondary trough comes through Thursday night with little fanfare other than a few clouds, but we’ll have a distinctive trend back to colder weather during Thursday and Friday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Brief burst of snow possible northern MA and southern NH mid to late morning with a dusting or a coating of accumulation possible. Precipitation arriving west to east during the afternoon as snow from the I-95 belt northwest and mix/rain to the southeast before changing to rain all areas except may remain mixed with snow in higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Snow accumulation of a coating to 1/2 inch possible in the I-95 belt and 1/2 to 2 inches possible I-495 belt north of I-90 northwestward. Highs 34-41. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, then S increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy start with any rain exiting early, then clearing. Watch for the formation of black ice on untreated surfaces. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 29-36. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower possible overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures steady 35-42. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

A weak low pressure area will bring some unsettled weather into the region on February 27 but should depart by the next day for a 50/50 final weekend of February. Watching the possibility of a longer-duration unsettled weather event sometime during the first three days of March.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)

Still low confidence for this far out but a general west to northwest flow pattern is expected with at least a mid period unsettled weather threat. Potential for a quick shot of very cold air from Canada sometime in here…

90 thoughts on “Monday February 22 2021 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you Tzk.

    Sure looks like snow out there.
    Down to 15 here just before 2 AM, but has warmed to 23. Precip looks to be a long way off. Will there be any snow here. Models say rain, history says not so fast. It may start as snow/mix before going over to rain. We’ll know soon enough.

  4. Thanks TK!

    Snow “should” be pretty much gone (at least in the city of Boston) by end of day Wednesday.

  13. Thanks TK.

    36 and feels pretty mild here in Manchester CT but noticing the dewpoint is only 25. Temp should drop upon the onset of precipitation, especially if it comes down heavier.

      1. I can see it happening in this case, at least in interior areas and at least for a few hours to start. The air aloft is cold, and the dewpoints are in the 20’s. Should be enough to drop the temps for several degrees at the onset of heavier precip. and support snow.

        I can see some interior elevated areas pulling 2-3″ out of this.

    1. This is really cool, but with what happened in Texas, it would have been nice to see the totals for Dallas, Austin, San Antonio and Houston.

      1. I looked too and then remembered this is for eastern US. I’m thinking there may be one for central or western

  17. It is up to 42 here in JP. Unless the air is still cold aloft
    the the precip starts, it surely will be rain.

    If it is still cold up there, then it could rain/mix to snow before
    it goes over to rain.

  19. Wet snow and rain mixed here at my office in Manchester CT. We are at a low elevation here though (approx. 200′) so I am not expecting much. Hopefully will be a bit more at home (house is just shy of 700′)

  22. If that is the case NY will retake the lead. Boston might have to wait to March and hope there is snow so it has a shot to take the lead again.

    1. I hope they get .2 inches.

      Then, no more snow for both cities and on April 30th, we´ll have Bucky Dent and Mike Torrez participate in some kind of tie-breaker, as I age myself for remembering 1978.

    2. There will be snow in March. Of course, that doesn’t guarantee Boston will eke out a victory. But, unless March 2021 is like March 1979 when only a trace of snow fell the entire month, we will see some snow in March.

  25. Texas may not have a full chance to catch its collective breathe.

    Seeing signs/hints in the medium range of an upper low in the southwest US. Potential Gulf of Mexico/southeast US ridge.

    This could open up the Gulf with mild, humid air for Texas and the Gulf coast and with upper disturbances potentially rotating around that southwest US upper low, the chances for severe weather opportunities may be on the increase by next weekend down there.

  26. I find it interesting that NYC could have accumulating snow with this system but Boston with rain throughout.

    Being 200 miles further north means nothing, I guess. 🙂

    1. Well we are not 200 miles north, but 200 miles NE, which means
      we are about 100 miles North of NYC, but also about 100 miles East. It is that Easterly component that can do us in on occasion, but most of the time the Northerly component gives us snow
      while it rains it NYC. We win out on average. Just look at the averages. 🙂

      1. Let’s get more specific.

        NYC coordinates are 40.7128 North and 74.0060 West
        Boston is at 42,3601 North and 71.0589 West
        Of course depending upon exact location within each city.
        These are what I got when I looked it up.

        There are approximately 69 miles between each degree of latitude and approximately 53 miles between each degree of longitude at our latitude (specifically it is 53 miles at 40 degrees North. Close enough)

        So let’s look at latitude.

        42.3601-40.7128 = 1.6473 x 69 = 113.66 Miles North
        of NYC

        Now longitude

        74.0060-71.0589 = 2.9471 x 53 = 156 Miles East of NYC.

        Or very close to those numbers. There is a precise formula, but not important for this discussion.

    3. with the Gulf of Maine so warm compared to normal and NYC being blocked by Land when it comes to NE winds, it sort of makes sense.

  27. Snow sticking to the pavement and pasting to the trees. First wet snow here since the day before Halloween.

  28. Thanks TK.

    Another mid-Atlantic snow special today. Around an inch of snow in Philly, but a widespread 3-6 not far north and west of there, much of which came in under 3 hours. It was definitely a case in point that extreme snow rates can overcome the sun angle.

    Probably the last notable snow we’ll see for awhile down here. Quieter and milder times ahead as we transition to a more springlike pattern.

      1. He was referring more to the Mid Atlantic. We’re not out of the woods up here by any stretch.

  29. Here’s a random but vivid example of why we simply cannot make the assumption that because a city is further north, it gets more snowfall. If that were the case, the average snowfall lines would be exactly parallel to the lines of latitude and extremely evenly spaced. Anyway….

    Seattle WA average annual snowfall: 5 inches.
    Flagstaff AZ average annual snowfall: 81 inches.

    There are definitely other things to consider now, aren’t there. 😉

    1. Is there a place that has information on how often NYC gets more snow than Boston. Although the comparison is not really equal given locations.

      1. I think the only way to find that out would be to literally go back to the climate data and compare year to year. It probably hasn’t happened that many times.

        1. I’ll go with your “it probably hasn’t happened many times.” I’m not curious enough to take those steps 🙂 🙂

              1. Central Park has had more snow than Boston 27 times in 131 years, and once they were exactly the same. Six of those 27 times, NYC had less than 1″ more than Boston. Only twice has NYC has had a snowfall total that was 10″ or more than Boston – 1948-49 (11.7″) and 2009-10 (16.0″)

  30. Thank You TK!
    Same here JJ snowing moderately with it starting to stick to the pavement and was already sticking to the deck and grassy surfaces. Temp has dropped from 37 at 1:00 to 33 even currently.

  32. Hmm, Temperature here has dropped from 42 down to 37, but no luck yet. NEVER has it rained hard or even close to it.
    Beginning to pick up now. According to HRRR 850 mb temps
    WELL below freezing ALL the way to the South Coast and beyond. According to NAM in addition to 850 mb temps below freezing, 925 mb well below as well. Then when this rain picks up a bit, We “should” go over to SNOW here. Ha ha ha
    We shall see about that.

      1. If this main precip had come in early this morning, Boston would have easily accumulated a few inches of snow before any change to rain.

        The next 7 days are NOT looking good for snow events.

  34. A little more snow than I expected in the north central MA hills (nearing 2 1/2 inches in Fitchburg). A little less snow than I expected closer to I-95.

    All in all though pretty close to the forecast. This is why I used terms like “possible” and not “definitely” when describing the potential snowfall in the region.

    1. March is when Boston will take over and run away with the lead. Only a couple of events needed for that.

      1. TK do you have a final number in mind for both these cities?
        I do think Boston will end up leading when all is said and done.

  37. Indeed, latitude is fairly meaningless. Boston and Barcelona are pretty much the same latitude. Our weather is vastly different. The Netherlands and Labrador are approximately the same latitude. Again, vastly different climate and weather patterns. Reykjavik, Iceland and Tasiilaq in Eastern Greenland are not only similar latitude, they’re also only about 450 miles from each other. Yet, totally different climate.

  39. The latest update from Central Park gives NY 0.4 inches for today’s system. This will be it for the system.
    NY 38.7
    BOS 38.4

Comments are closed.