Tuesday February 23 2021 Forecast (7:20AM)

34 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

And now we get to enjoy a couple milder days as we head into the middle of the final week of February, but the price we’ll pay is quite a bit of cloudiness as we have rapidly moving systems rippling along the jet stream flow – one disturbance today, which may produce a brief shower of rain or snow over the interior hills and maybe a sprinkle of rain along the coastal plain, and a cold front which will arrive from the west Wednesday night. We get more sun for Thursday and Friday but the price for that will be a return to colder weather, including wind on Thursday behind that cold front as its parent low intensifies while heading into southeastern Canada. At least Friday will be more tranquil courtesy high pressure. Along comes the next low pressure area for Saturday. It doesn’t look like a strong system, and milder air moving in along with it should mean whatever does fall will be primarily in the form of rain, although we cannot rule out a bit of frozen precipitation at the start, depending on the timing of the arrival.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A brief shower of snow or rain interior & rain coast. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 29-36. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures steady 35-42. Wind NW 15-25 MPH morning, 10-20 MPH afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, may start as sleet and/or snow. Highs 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

The back half of the final weekend of February will see a return to dry weather between departing low pressure and approaching high pressure, but it will probably be a windy/chilly day too for February 28. The early days of March look changeable both in weather and temperature including the risk of a very sharp shot of arctic air, but I’m not even going to attempt day-by-day at this point as the most reliable guidance we have is in high disagreement with their individual depictions. Will re-evaluate this for the next update and give it another try.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)

We still have a lot to sort out here. Looks like a generally westerly flow but plenty to track including at least a couple disturbances and the possibility of an additional strong shot of cold air from Canada.

34 thoughts on “Tuesday February 23 2021 Forecast (7:20AM)”

  5. Thank you, TK.

    Sun has been lacking a bit lately. I would not typically notice except the one ring camera I have that uses solar is struggling to keep the battery charged. And it has a full southern exposure.

  10. Thank you, TK.

    Sort of a preview of spring on tap today and tomorrow. When the sun is out it’s strong. Birds have responded with glee. They’re doing speed dating. No social distancing whatsoever among the sparrows.

  12. Here is something interesting from the Euro. Sure, as depicted, it is rain in SNE, but this is still a ways off, so we shall see. Probably end up cutting through the lakes. 🙂

    btw, 46 here after topping out at 48. It’s a heat wave!!!!

  13. Thanks TK!

    Feels like spring out there today, and will even more so tomorrow. One thing that’s stood out to me this winter is the lack of anomalously warm days. Late December and January was certainly notable for its warmth, but only in duration, not magnitude. I think you have to go back to Christmas for a truly anomalous warm day. Seems it’s typical for us to get the occasional 60+ degree day in January-February, at least in recent years, but not the case this winter.

  15. WxWatcher, you are 100% correct in your observation. Usually, we have January thaw days that get us into the 50s and 60s. Did not happen this year. The whole month was mild, but not a single day was way above normal. Certainly February stood out/stands out as well as not having any `crazy’ warm days like they’ve been experiencing in parts of Northern Europe this past week (after a very cold spell). It’s really unusual to see Northwestern Europe have more variability – almost Denver-like – than Boston. In fact, in all my years of observing weather I’ve never seen anything like what has occurred this month in places like the Netherlands. From record cold to record warmth in the spate of 1 week. Just doesn’t happen over there, but did this year.

    1. I still think one of the most impressive swings I’ve seen locally is the record cold December 1989 followed by the record warm January 1990 for Boston.

  17. In an interview Sunday during the final round of the genesis tiger was hoping to play in the masters. He had surgery a few weeks ago.

  18. I will never forget him winning the 2019 Masters when he was back on top after everything he went through in his personal life and his multiple surgeries.

  19. One better hope the GFS is OTL if they don’t like arctic air.
    The last couple op runs have had a short-lived but very sharp shot of arctic air around March 1 & 2. The 18z op run drops Boston to -2F on March 2 for morning low & recovers them back to about 16F for a high later that evening – a temp rise that comes at night after a daytime high of just over 10F … along with a lot of wind. BRRR! if that ends up even somewhat true…

    1. TK, you can’t imagine how thrilled I am to see this possibility. Call me insane, but I’d absolutely love it.

      1. Well none of the TV media is biting on it, and I don’t blame them, given guidance & that it’s out there several days…

        But yes we can be prone to sharp arctic shots in March & even April.

        2. Indeed, I used the word “possibility.” We’ll see. The cold air will be there to our north. It’s just a matter of whether it gets dragged down here and the degree to which it’s modified.

  20. If anybody writes a comment and it doesn’t show up right away, there’s a bit of an issue with the auto spam check on WordPress. Every comment, whether from a person approved or not, goes to a spam checker, and some of the comments from regular are getting hung up there, so I have to approve them again. Hopefully this will clear up soon.

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