24 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – February 24 2021”
I am not that active with WHW that much anymore (except maybe during the summer w/the thunderstorms 🙂 ) but I have been on once or twice this winter. I do however occasionally look what’s going on. But I never have looked on the Covid conversations. But I wanted to get on today. I used to like Gov. Baker. I am appalled and disappointed in how he is doing things now. Lessening restrictions when the daily numbers still exceed 1,000. How great the vaccinations are when so many of us are having trouble just getting an appt. let alone getting onto a site. And ‘though there have been trials, how do we know for sure how long the vaccine will work? And will it work in the real world? And then there are those who get the vaccine and plan to get together for the holidays and spring break. All this could make the numbers leap up again. Believe me – I truly wish that families could be together again and be safe. Back to normalcy. I haven’t driven in some time and yesterday I drove and as great as it felt to be behind the wheel again I kept thinking it was Sun. or a holiday – no traffic. Very weird feeling. And the rest of the world ( not sure what countries) has been lax about it. As Joshua stated (I think he said it) we still don’t know much about Covid. And Vicki, I totally agree with you. And about our kids and how the schools are going to be. I believe this virus is going to be around for another year or more. I hope I’m wrong. The numbers are slightly down now – prob’ly due to the snowstorms. Anyway, getting off my soapbox, now.
You make several important points, rainshine.
Let’s start with the good news:
1. Vaccines have been developed in record time, and from all accounts are safe and effective, especially at preventing severe disease. We’ll have another option by next week – a single dose option produced by J&J. These vaccines will help us end the pandemic. People may need boosters on a yearly or bi-annually. But, this is doable.
2. The Covid-19 indicators have tumbled from their peaks in January.
Now the bad news:
1. We’re still very much in the throes of the pandemic. Cases and hospitalizations are down from their incredible heights, but they’re still VERY elevated. Too much so for comfort. Test positivity is rising again and is close to 6% nationwide. Too high for comfort. Losing more than 2,000 people every day is considered better than losing 3,000 daily, but it’s still a tremendously high toll.
2. The variants are a legitimate cause for concern, especially if they begin evading the neutralizing effects of vaccines.
As I’ve said repeatedly, we’re not done with the virus yet, nor is it done with us. I’m cautiously optimistic, but on guard. I fear that many governors are not. Many have become numbed by the statistics. As Josef Stalin once said: “The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic.” [Please note, I am NOT a fan of Stalin. He was perhaps the most evil leader of all time. I’m only using his quote to demonstrate a point]
Rainshine..it is always a pleasure to see you here. I voted for baker. Many I know did the same. I have yet to talk to one person who voted for him who has not said they won’t vote for him again. Maybe he doesn’t plan to run again, but doing a horrific job in time left to me would be even more egregious.
I know! I really liked Baker. I don’t know what happened and how he changed his views.
As far as the vaccines go, if and when I get the vaccine, I hope to get one that is more than 70% effective. It is going to take some time to see how any of these vaccines work in the real world – and there are some people who won’t get the vaccine. Then how can you tell. What a sad mess this world is in.
they said a strain out in California may have mutated parts of what interacts with the spike protein, possibly decreasing the effectiveness of the vaccine.
I do wish that during his presidency Trump would have allowed others to handle his Twitter account. It’s one thing to be reassuring it’s another to include disinformation and irrelevant information in a tweet.
Joshua, baker is pushing the J&J …what good does it do if it is less than 70% effective
I believe the media is doing J&J a disservice by comparing its data to Moderna’s/Pfizer’s. Apples and oranges. Let me explain. J&J’s trial was conducted globally, including places with the elusive variants – South Africa and Latin America. Its efficacy is bound to be lower as a result. Moderna and Pfizer did not test their products in South Africa. If they had their products would have lower efficacy (preliminary data already show that for B117 or the UK variant). Nor were their trials nearly as global. Also, J&J’s data is ONLY for the single dose. It’s expected that adding a 2nd dose (J&J is conducting a trial as I write this to test a 2nd dose) would boost efficacy close to what Moderna and Pfizer achieve with 2 doses. Finally, J&J’s is MUCH easier to store. You can put it in a conventional refrigerator. Much cheaper for the state and pharmacies. It’s also a conventional adenovirus vaccine. We have a better understanding of its mechanism and effectiveness over time.
I’ll be honest. I’m more comfortable with a conventional adenovirus vaccine than an mRNA. But that’s me. I’m really conservative in this regard and always a laggard or late adopter of the latest technologies.
Thank you, Joshua. I read this but know you and others have said moderna and pfeizer are successful with SA and UK so I’m confused how that would make their efficacy closer to JJ
I’m curious though about second JJ dose. If it isn’t in process, would it be ineffective if given more than a short time after original JJ vaccine. Seems to be rushed to me if a second does may be needed. The others waited for the second before releasing.
I’m being the devils advocate here. As you know, I have enough negative experience with vaccines in my lifetime to be someone Leary. Frankly, Even with an appointment, I am nervous getting one
Adding that I may have well waited longer for any vaccine since I’m not going anywhere. But I need gum surgery sooner than later and would like to be vaccinated before anyone works in my mouth
Moderna and Pfizer haven’t been tested against SA variant. Their trials didn’t include South Africa. They just entered a clinical trial to test efficacy.
I don’t think J&J is rushing anything. Its clinical trial was set up for a single dose. So, when we hear about efficacy it’s in reference to that single dose. They’ve now just begun testing a 2nd dose. My guess is that a 2nd dose will improve efficacy. For now, what we’ll have is a single dose J&J shot.
Please note, even 66% efficacy is quite good for a single shot. Typical efficacy of a flu shot is 50-55%.
Furthermore, if we measure all the vaccines against the most important endpoint – death – they’re 100% effective, which is remarkable.
Finally, it appears that J&J’s effectiveness – just the single shot – improves over time, so not just within the 14 day period but long after it continues to improve.
I do understand moderna and pfeizer were not tested against the variants but reports are that they are effective. Is that an untruth?
I am a skeptic. I know flu shot is sketchy. But it is the flu. This is covid. I like the fact that it is a adenovirus vaccine. Do you know what success percentage is for pfeizer and moderna without a booster?
As far as rushing..,,IMO these are all rushed but for good reason …I hope.
The news from Europe isn’t great. The Czech Republic is now surging again in all 3 indicators. The big question is why. Probably B117. Austria and France are also is seeing growth again in all 3 indicators, though not a surge. Poland and Croatia are surging again.
We hold a big advantage over the continent of Europe in regard to vaccination rate. Ours is significantly better. But, ours is not nearly as good as the UK and Israel.
Will we thread the needle and avoid a surge? I am hopeful, but remain cautious. I think premature pronouncements that Covid is in full retreat are not warranted, given the data. It’s important to recognize that our case decline has pretty much halted this week. Hospitalizations are still decreasing, though not as steeply as they were 7-10 days ago. Deaths are decreasing gradually, but are still very elevated at 2.5k per day on most weekdays; about a 2k 7-day moving average. Much better than last month. But that’s still a lot of death.
Vicki, it would be good to be vaccinated before gum surgery. I’m not a doctor, but that is my advice.
I do understand your concerns. But, I can assure you that the FDA has done due diligence. The peer-reviewed literature is clear on the safety and efficacy of the vaccines. And, it’s in the companies’ interests to be transparent. There is a wildcard and that is that mRNA vaccines have never been developed and launched before (adenovirus vaccines have), AND we just don’t know about durability.
You are correct that reports suggest that Moderna/Pfizer are effective against the UK B117 (about 84% – so a 10% drop). But, I don’t know of a credible report on their efficacy against the Brazil variants P.1 and P.2 and the South Africa variant B.1.351. Other vaccines, such as Astra Zeneca, have shown a big drop in efficacy, well below 50%.
The virus is `trying’ to outsmart us. It’s also `trying’ to survive, if you will. Viruses are very good at both. To me the biggest surprise with the variants is that they’re not only more efficient at transmitting – at least the B.1.1.7 is – they’re also more lethal and cause more severe disease. The Danes just published a report today that says B.1.1.7 cause 64% more severe cases. That concerns me, especially if the mutation teams up with one that can evade vaccines. The longer we have so many tens of thousands of new cases every day the greater the chance of mutations.
Thanks, Joshua. I do have an appointment for next Thursday as of this afternoon and would not have had the surgery …If the bridge holds out long enough.,,,until the vaccine. My son and fiancé are waiting foe a bit also. Son has had covid. I do see the variants and it scares the heck out of me that we may never get rid of this thing.
As always, your answers to questions are much appreciated
They are saying g some variants area for the spike protein is mutating which is a concern
Love this tweet a woman wrote in response to a report today on a new variant in NYC: “Even as I despair of ever going to a concert or restaurant again in my relatively few years left on the planet, I have to admire the plucky little virus from an evo-bio standpoint. It’s not gonna sit there and just let us kill it without fighting for its quasi-life.”
Ha. That actually gives me a smile too. I do enjoy positivity. I fail often but sure always try to see the upside
On a positive note, I do see light at the end of the tunnel. I really do, variants notwithstanding. We won’t be totally Covid-free. But, we will be living a quasi-normal existence by the end of this year. My caution mostly applies to the next few months, perhaps as late as the summer, as we attempt to beat down a virus that’s trying to outwit us. Vaccinate and mitigate. That’s the theme.
Hoping that by July travel will be good to go. Just booked a trip to Switzerland and Italy. All of the adults will have been vaccinated so feeling good about it. I got my first shot on Monday and my wife is fully done.
Now let’s get schools open for these kids, don’t know why the governor hasn’t made teachers a priority. Such a shame.
I think Europe is running 4-6 weeks behind us.
Vicki this isn’t even going away forever sadly. It will end up being far less lethal though and life will have to go on. Hope I am wrong and it just disappears, but nothing has showed me that would be the case.
I posted a link a couple of days ago. The 1918 never went away. Just quieted on and off. As far as kids in school I assume you mean once teachers and staff are protected. That is at least six weeks. And it will give us a chance to see where the new variant in nyc is going.
Yeah we probably disagree on schools, I think the damage being done to the kids is really bad and we will be studying this for years to come. I also think inner city schools need to be open ASAP, the damage being done to lower income families is going to be studied for decades to come.
I do wish teachers were first inline. My youngest starts Monday as hybrid so let’s see how it goes.
C-19 for 2-25 is ready.
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
I am not that active with WHW that much anymore (except maybe during the summer w/the thunderstorms 🙂 ) but I have been on once or twice this winter. I do however occasionally look what’s going on. But I never have looked on the Covid conversations. But I wanted to get on today. I used to like Gov. Baker. I am appalled and disappointed in how he is doing things now. Lessening restrictions when the daily numbers still exceed 1,000. How great the vaccinations are when so many of us are having trouble just getting an appt. let alone getting onto a site. And ‘though there have been trials, how do we know for sure how long the vaccine will work? And will it work in the real world? And then there are those who get the vaccine and plan to get together for the holidays and spring break. All this could make the numbers leap up again. Believe me – I truly wish that families could be together again and be safe. Back to normalcy. I haven’t driven in some time and yesterday I drove and as great as it felt to be behind the wheel again I kept thinking it was Sun. or a holiday – no traffic. Very weird feeling. And the rest of the world ( not sure what countries) has been lax about it. As Joshua stated (I think he said it) we still don’t know much about Covid. And Vicki, I totally agree with you. And about our kids and how the schools are going to be. I believe this virus is going to be around for another year or more. I hope I’m wrong. The numbers are slightly down now – prob’ly due to the snowstorms. Anyway, getting off my soapbox, now.
You make several important points, rainshine.
Let’s start with the good news:
1. Vaccines have been developed in record time, and from all accounts are safe and effective, especially at preventing severe disease. We’ll have another option by next week – a single dose option produced by J&J. These vaccines will help us end the pandemic. People may need boosters on a yearly or bi-annually. But, this is doable.
2. The Covid-19 indicators have tumbled from their peaks in January.
Now the bad news:
1. We’re still very much in the throes of the pandemic. Cases and hospitalizations are down from their incredible heights, but they’re still VERY elevated. Too much so for comfort. Test positivity is rising again and is close to 6% nationwide. Too high for comfort. Losing more than 2,000 people every day is considered better than losing 3,000 daily, but it’s still a tremendously high toll.
2. The variants are a legitimate cause for concern, especially if they begin evading the neutralizing effects of vaccines.
As I’ve said repeatedly, we’re not done with the virus yet, nor is it done with us. I’m cautiously optimistic, but on guard. I fear that many governors are not. Many have become numbed by the statistics. As Josef Stalin once said: “The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic.” [Please note, I am NOT a fan of Stalin. He was perhaps the most evil leader of all time. I’m only using his quote to demonstrate a point]
Rainshine..it is always a pleasure to see you here. I voted for baker. Many I know did the same. I have yet to talk to one person who voted for him who has not said they won’t vote for him again. Maybe he doesn’t plan to run again, but doing a horrific job in time left to me would be even more egregious.
I know! I really liked Baker. I don’t know what happened and how he changed his views.
As far as the vaccines go, if and when I get the vaccine, I hope to get one that is more than 70% effective. It is going to take some time to see how any of these vaccines work in the real world – and there are some people who won’t get the vaccine. Then how can you tell. What a sad mess this world is in.
they said a strain out in California may have mutated parts of what interacts with the spike protein, possibly decreasing the effectiveness of the vaccine.
One year ago today this is what President Trump had to say about the coronavirus: https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1364581329854226435/photo/1
I do wish that during his presidency Trump would have allowed others to handle his Twitter account. It’s one thing to be reassuring it’s another to include disinformation and irrelevant information in a tweet.
Joshua, baker is pushing the J&J …what good does it do if it is less than 70% effective
I believe the media is doing J&J a disservice by comparing its data to Moderna’s/Pfizer’s. Apples and oranges. Let me explain. J&J’s trial was conducted globally, including places with the elusive variants – South Africa and Latin America. Its efficacy is bound to be lower as a result. Moderna and Pfizer did not test their products in South Africa. If they had their products would have lower efficacy (preliminary data already show that for B117 or the UK variant). Nor were their trials nearly as global. Also, J&J’s data is ONLY for the single dose. It’s expected that adding a 2nd dose (J&J is conducting a trial as I write this to test a 2nd dose) would boost efficacy close to what Moderna and Pfizer achieve with 2 doses. Finally, J&J’s is MUCH easier to store. You can put it in a conventional refrigerator. Much cheaper for the state and pharmacies. It’s also a conventional adenovirus vaccine. We have a better understanding of its mechanism and effectiveness over time.
I’ll be honest. I’m more comfortable with a conventional adenovirus vaccine than an mRNA. But that’s me. I’m really conservative in this regard and always a laggard or late adopter of the latest technologies.
Thank you, Joshua. I read this but know you and others have said moderna and pfeizer are successful with SA and UK so I’m confused how that would make their efficacy closer to JJ
I’m curious though about second JJ dose. If it isn’t in process, would it be ineffective if given more than a short time after original JJ vaccine. Seems to be rushed to me if a second does may be needed. The others waited for the second before releasing.
I’m being the devils advocate here. As you know, I have enough negative experience with vaccines in my lifetime to be someone Leary. Frankly, Even with an appointment, I am nervous getting one
Adding that I may have well waited longer for any vaccine since I’m not going anywhere. But I need gum surgery sooner than later and would like to be vaccinated before anyone works in my mouth
Moderna and Pfizer haven’t been tested against SA variant. Their trials didn’t include South Africa. They just entered a clinical trial to test efficacy.
I don’t think J&J is rushing anything. Its clinical trial was set up for a single dose. So, when we hear about efficacy it’s in reference to that single dose. They’ve now just begun testing a 2nd dose. My guess is that a 2nd dose will improve efficacy. For now, what we’ll have is a single dose J&J shot.
Please note, even 66% efficacy is quite good for a single shot. Typical efficacy of a flu shot is 50-55%.
Furthermore, if we measure all the vaccines against the most important endpoint – death – they’re 100% effective, which is remarkable.
Finally, it appears that J&J’s effectiveness – just the single shot – improves over time, so not just within the 14 day period but long after it continues to improve.
I do understand moderna and pfeizer were not tested against the variants but reports are that they are effective. Is that an untruth?
I am a skeptic. I know flu shot is sketchy. But it is the flu. This is covid. I like the fact that it is a adenovirus vaccine. Do you know what success percentage is for pfeizer and moderna without a booster?
As far as rushing..,,IMO these are all rushed but for good reason …I hope.
The news from Europe isn’t great. The Czech Republic is now surging again in all 3 indicators. The big question is why. Probably B117. Austria and France are also is seeing growth again in all 3 indicators, though not a surge. Poland and Croatia are surging again.
We hold a big advantage over the continent of Europe in regard to vaccination rate. Ours is significantly better. But, ours is not nearly as good as the UK and Israel.
Will we thread the needle and avoid a surge? I am hopeful, but remain cautious. I think premature pronouncements that Covid is in full retreat are not warranted, given the data. It’s important to recognize that our case decline has pretty much halted this week. Hospitalizations are still decreasing, though not as steeply as they were 7-10 days ago. Deaths are decreasing gradually, but are still very elevated at 2.5k per day on most weekdays; about a 2k 7-day moving average. Much better than last month. But that’s still a lot of death.
Vicki, it would be good to be vaccinated before gum surgery. I’m not a doctor, but that is my advice.
I do understand your concerns. But, I can assure you that the FDA has done due diligence. The peer-reviewed literature is clear on the safety and efficacy of the vaccines. And, it’s in the companies’ interests to be transparent. There is a wildcard and that is that mRNA vaccines have never been developed and launched before (adenovirus vaccines have), AND we just don’t know about durability.
You are correct that reports suggest that Moderna/Pfizer are effective against the UK B117 (about 84% – so a 10% drop). But, I don’t know of a credible report on their efficacy against the Brazil variants P.1 and P.2 and the South Africa variant B.1.351. Other vaccines, such as Astra Zeneca, have shown a big drop in efficacy, well below 50%.
The virus is `trying’ to outsmart us. It’s also `trying’ to survive, if you will. Viruses are very good at both. To me the biggest surprise with the variants is that they’re not only more efficient at transmitting – at least the B.1.1.7 is – they’re also more lethal and cause more severe disease. The Danes just published a report today that says B.1.1.7 cause 64% more severe cases. That concerns me, especially if the mutation teams up with one that can evade vaccines. The longer we have so many tens of thousands of new cases every day the greater the chance of mutations.
Thanks, Joshua. I do have an appointment for next Thursday as of this afternoon and would not have had the surgery …If the bridge holds out long enough.,,,until the vaccine. My son and fiancé are waiting foe a bit also. Son has had covid. I do see the variants and it scares the heck out of me that we may never get rid of this thing.
As always, your answers to questions are much appreciated
They are saying g some variants area for the spike protein is mutating which is a concern
Love this tweet a woman wrote in response to a report today on a new variant in NYC: “Even as I despair of ever going to a concert or restaurant again in my relatively few years left on the planet, I have to admire the plucky little virus from an evo-bio standpoint. It’s not gonna sit there and just let us kill it without fighting for its quasi-life.”
Ha. That actually gives me a smile too. I do enjoy positivity. I fail often but sure always try to see the upside
On a positive note, I do see light at the end of the tunnel. I really do, variants notwithstanding. We won’t be totally Covid-free. But, we will be living a quasi-normal existence by the end of this year. My caution mostly applies to the next few months, perhaps as late as the summer, as we attempt to beat down a virus that’s trying to outwit us. Vaccinate and mitigate. That’s the theme.
Hoping that by July travel will be good to go. Just booked a trip to Switzerland and Italy. All of the adults will have been vaccinated so feeling good about it. I got my first shot on Monday and my wife is fully done.
Now let’s get schools open for these kids, don’t know why the governor hasn’t made teachers a priority. Such a shame.
I think Europe is running 4-6 weeks behind us.
Vicki this isn’t even going away forever sadly. It will end up being far less lethal though and life will have to go on. Hope I am wrong and it just disappears, but nothing has showed me that would be the case.
I posted a link a couple of days ago. The 1918 never went away. Just quieted on and off. As far as kids in school I assume you mean once teachers and staff are protected. That is at least six weeks. And it will give us a chance to see where the new variant in nyc is going.
Yeah we probably disagree on schools, I think the damage being done to the kids is really bad and we will be studying this for years to come. I also think inner city schools need to be open ASAP, the damage being done to lower income families is going to be studied for decades to come.
I do wish teachers were first inline. My youngest starts Monday as hybrid so let’s see how it goes.
C-19 for 2-25 is ready.