23 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – February 25 2021”
Seems like the vaccine booking systems is still a hot mess.
Ha. That is putting it mildly. But the simple answer is that is it a complete disaster
Joshua, what are your thoughts on the variant in NY/NYC?
It gives me pause that the governor is relaxing restrictions with that on our doorstep. But then I think I also understand why we need to relax some for the sake of businesses.
I have my reservations of the newer vaccine that is coming out. Johnson & Johnson seems that you can have a high risk of getting Covid19 but it prevents you from needing to be hospitalized and getting moderate to severe cases but you can still get “mild covid” which is as bad as you have a flu. I was talking to my Dad about this and he has his concerns with this vaccine. He suggests people ask for Moderna or Pfizer over J&J. It is also considered to be at 70% effective. I also have concern with governments starting to play with longer durations between doses. I just feel there can be a whole bunch of problems with that. Luckily next week I will be getting my second dose but only having your first dose which is aparently around 55 to 68% effective compared to 92 to 95% effective is a huge difference. I would feel much safer not wearing a mask over 90% over a 65%
Thanks, Matt. I am interested to hear your dads POV. I suspect the last group which is in large part younger folks will be JJ.
He is concerned that this will happen that younger folks will have JJ which might not have the same amount of protection of transmitting ability and with how dumb people are being, he is worried about transmission not to mention that JJ may not protect people from long covid.
You and your Dad may be right. I still need to review the data more carefully.
Thanks for posting, Matt.
Hadi mentioned traveling to Europe this summer. I think it’s definitely possible. I am also going to try to fly to England this summer. But, be prepared for changes. I am sure Hadi is aware.
Hadi said that Europe is behind the U.S. by 3 weeks or so. I think that is more or less accurate in terms of vaccinations (2 weeks is probably a more accurate assessment). But, it is not accurate in terms of the epi-curve. Europe has been ahead of the U.S. in terms of the epi-curve from the moment it hit Italy. And it’s been ahead by about 3 to 4 weeks. There has been one exception and that’s the sunbelt wave in the U.S. The other waves in the U.S. followed what was happening in Europe. I am confident that what we’re seeing now is yet another example of this. Namely, we’re seeing first a plateauing of cases and hospitalizations in Europe after a steep descent and now a gradual or steep ascent in a growing number of countries. We can add France to the list. The Czech Republic is surging. Netherlands’ increase has been steady in the past 7 days. Austria, Poland, etc … Vaccinations will help to stem the increase this time around. But, I do expect another wave here as well, albeit in a muted form. We’re seeing evidence of that as the descent in cases has stopped. There’s now a very slight ascent. Hospitalizations’ decrease has slowed to a crawl. I expect that to increase soon. This will NOT be a massive surge. Vaccinations will ensure that a major wave is prevented. Yet, the new variants – including the one Vicki alluded to – have been seeded here and are taking over. The virus is not done with us. We’ll have to be one step ahead, and maintain vigilance.
Sports venues TD Garden, Fenway Park, Gillette Stadium limited capacity of spectators. 2000-7000 approx.
2,000 at TD Garden
4,500 at Fenway Park
7,000 at Gillette Stadium
😀
This is anecdotal, but I personally know 3 people who have tested positive for covid in the past week or so (all of whom are doing ok and none who I’ve been in contact with). But looking more broadly, the rapid decline in case numbers has now flattened across the US with now some small increases in new cases beginning. Combined with a major peeling back of restrictions, don’t be surprised to see another surge in the next month or two. Likely not as severe as previous ones as vaccines start to have more of an impact and the weather warms up. But make no mistake, we’re still playing the yo-yo game. We’re not herd immune yet.
New Jersey has the vaccine process pretty well figured out, at least in the sense that vaccines are definitely getting distributed, though the priority list has been a bit odd. I will be getting Pfizer dose #2 next week. I have mixed feelings about someone like myself (young and healthy, an “other” essential worker but certainly not a true frontline worker) being eligible at this stage. But I definitely think it’s doing the greater good to get it if I can, so I’m looking forward to the second dose.
Thank you, WxW. I have the same fear you have. Baker sadly has not shown the best judgement. Maybe increase capacity but to eliminate to me is a fools errand. His cockiness worries me. He danced all around questions regarding inefficiency of the MA system today. When people get cocky or defensive, they often do not think rationally.
Great post, WxW. Thank you. Your input on weather and non-weather items is so much appreciated.
I am shocked that Baker is opening up restaurants to full capacity on the 1st of March. That’s inviting trouble, in my opinion. He’s completely ignoring variants. Has he seen the data from Europe, where it’s clear variants are driving the uptick in France, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Poland, and now Italy? The uptick is not only cases, by the way, it’s also hospitalizations. I believe we’re next. As WxW said above – and I also stated – this will NOT be a massive surge or 4th wave – vaccinations will stem this. But it will be a wave, I believe, and it’s one we certainly can avoid.
Outdoor spectators I have little issue with. Indoor is again problematic.
Different story if the state was at herd immunity, or we had the majority of people vaccinated. We don’t yet.
If I were advising Baker I’d say ramp up the vaccinations, but continue to mitigate, and relax limits once we have the majority of the population vaccinated, which could be as soon as early to mid April (based on back-of-the-envelope calculations).
I would have not done as much for indoor venues. Outdoor venues sure. Many of the things here in the USVI are open at some capacity and the yare hoping by May at least 70% of the population is vaccinated. I feel they could get that but its unlikely as aparently around 30% of the population here are not wanting to get. There are even some people in my program not wanting to get it. Which may become a problem in the near future. I feel that they are really pushing to allow outdoor events to start up again in May. Here in the VI they only have the Pfizer vaccine, there is one place on St. Croix that has Moderna but almost everyone here is getting the Pfizer and it looks to stay that way based on the last governor announcement today.
Agree, Matt. Outdoors is fine. But indoors, especially in confined spaces with lots of people, is really asking for trouble.
I am desperate to go to a restaurant indoors and also my local coffee shop. It’s been a while. But, I’m not going to chance it. While I have no underlying health conditions that appear on the Covid-19 risk chart, I’ve had bronchitis many times. Bad colds go straight to my lungs. So I ain’t risking it at this point. Not at age 56.
I might have an allergy attack or a cold and allergies attack me for a solid week and I can have trouble for weeks after with sinuses and throat things. I can only imagine what would happen if I were to get covid and have to deal with allergies on top of it.
I’ve left out a European country that is seeing its biggest surge yet: Hungary. It’s not that low on the vaccination ranking, either – higher than many West European countries. Yet, its PM – Orban – declared that the next 2 weeks will be the worst the country has faced thus far. He attributes this to the variants. He said on national TV this evening “I only have bad news to convey, unfortunately.”
French local authorities are also sounding the alarm this evening, in Dunkirk, Paris, and several other regions.
Given this, I find it baffling that Baker would open up restaurants to 100% capacity. At least wait a few more weeks to see if the variants take off. Maybe they won’t here. Great. But better safe than sorry.
Globally, cases and hospitalizations on the rise again. 5% this week. U.S. cases on the rise as well. On balance, hospitalizations still falling, but it’s now a trickle compared to last week and certainly the week before.
Pay attention to the case fatality rate. It is higher than it was several months ago, practically everywhere. Also, the average age of those dying has gone down a bit; this is a broad, global phenomenon. I believe this is the variants at work. The coronavirus’ last stand, if you will. We’ve got to vaccinate faster, and require vaccinations as much as is legally possible.
hospitalizations lag behind case numbers/infections if I am understanding correctly.
Indeed they do. Vaccinations will have an impact, a very positive one in that I don’t foresee a big spike in hospitalizations and deaths. Yet, I do predict a modest increase in both indicators in the coming weeks. The vaccine push will stem significant increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. So I don’t foresee another massive surge.
Fauci just supported the concerns here. He was asked when people could start full capacity restaurants. He said gradually. Right now it is family members who are fully vaccinated. Other areas you have to use common sense. Our governor has somehow and somewhere lost the concept of common sense
C-19 for 2-26 is ready.
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Seems like the vaccine booking systems is still a hot mess.
Ha. That is putting it mildly. But the simple answer is that is it a complete disaster
Joshua, what are your thoughts on the variant in NY/NYC?
It gives me pause that the governor is relaxing restrictions with that on our doorstep. But then I think I also understand why we need to relax some for the sake of businesses.
I have my reservations of the newer vaccine that is coming out. Johnson & Johnson seems that you can have a high risk of getting Covid19 but it prevents you from needing to be hospitalized and getting moderate to severe cases but you can still get “mild covid” which is as bad as you have a flu. I was talking to my Dad about this and he has his concerns with this vaccine. He suggests people ask for Moderna or Pfizer over J&J. It is also considered to be at 70% effective. I also have concern with governments starting to play with longer durations between doses. I just feel there can be a whole bunch of problems with that. Luckily next week I will be getting my second dose but only having your first dose which is aparently around 55 to 68% effective compared to 92 to 95% effective is a huge difference. I would feel much safer not wearing a mask over 90% over a 65%
Thanks, Matt. I am interested to hear your dads POV. I suspect the last group which is in large part younger folks will be JJ.
He is concerned that this will happen that younger folks will have JJ which might not have the same amount of protection of transmitting ability and with how dumb people are being, he is worried about transmission not to mention that JJ may not protect people from long covid.
You and your Dad may be right. I still need to review the data more carefully.
Thanks for posting, Matt.
Hadi mentioned traveling to Europe this summer. I think it’s definitely possible. I am also going to try to fly to England this summer. But, be prepared for changes. I am sure Hadi is aware.
Hadi said that Europe is behind the U.S. by 3 weeks or so. I think that is more or less accurate in terms of vaccinations (2 weeks is probably a more accurate assessment). But, it is not accurate in terms of the epi-curve. Europe has been ahead of the U.S. in terms of the epi-curve from the moment it hit Italy. And it’s been ahead by about 3 to 4 weeks. There has been one exception and that’s the sunbelt wave in the U.S. The other waves in the U.S. followed what was happening in Europe. I am confident that what we’re seeing now is yet another example of this. Namely, we’re seeing first a plateauing of cases and hospitalizations in Europe after a steep descent and now a gradual or steep ascent in a growing number of countries. We can add France to the list. The Czech Republic is surging. Netherlands’ increase has been steady in the past 7 days. Austria, Poland, etc … Vaccinations will help to stem the increase this time around. But, I do expect another wave here as well, albeit in a muted form. We’re seeing evidence of that as the descent in cases has stopped. There’s now a very slight ascent. Hospitalizations’ decrease has slowed to a crawl. I expect that to increase soon. This will NOT be a massive surge. Vaccinations will ensure that a major wave is prevented. Yet, the new variants – including the one Vicki alluded to – have been seeded here and are taking over. The virus is not done with us. We’ll have to be one step ahead, and maintain vigilance.
Starting March 1st:
*No more capacity limits at restaurants
* Museums, Theatres, Churches at 50% capacity
*Banquets, Weddings 100 capacity indoors, 150 outdoors
Starting March 22nd:
Sports venues TD Garden, Fenway Park, Gillette Stadium limited capacity of spectators. 2000-7000 approx.
2,000 at TD Garden
4,500 at Fenway Park
7,000 at Gillette Stadium
😀
This is anecdotal, but I personally know 3 people who have tested positive for covid in the past week or so (all of whom are doing ok and none who I’ve been in contact with). But looking more broadly, the rapid decline in case numbers has now flattened across the US with now some small increases in new cases beginning. Combined with a major peeling back of restrictions, don’t be surprised to see another surge in the next month or two. Likely not as severe as previous ones as vaccines start to have more of an impact and the weather warms up. But make no mistake, we’re still playing the yo-yo game. We’re not herd immune yet.
New Jersey has the vaccine process pretty well figured out, at least in the sense that vaccines are definitely getting distributed, though the priority list has been a bit odd. I will be getting Pfizer dose #2 next week. I have mixed feelings about someone like myself (young and healthy, an “other” essential worker but certainly not a true frontline worker) being eligible at this stage. But I definitely think it’s doing the greater good to get it if I can, so I’m looking forward to the second dose.
Thank you, WxW. I have the same fear you have. Baker sadly has not shown the best judgement. Maybe increase capacity but to eliminate to me is a fools errand. His cockiness worries me. He danced all around questions regarding inefficiency of the MA system today. When people get cocky or defensive, they often do not think rationally.
Great post, WxW. Thank you. Your input on weather and non-weather items is so much appreciated.
I am shocked that Baker is opening up restaurants to full capacity on the 1st of March. That’s inviting trouble, in my opinion. He’s completely ignoring variants. Has he seen the data from Europe, where it’s clear variants are driving the uptick in France, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Poland, and now Italy? The uptick is not only cases, by the way, it’s also hospitalizations. I believe we’re next. As WxW said above – and I also stated – this will NOT be a massive surge or 4th wave – vaccinations will stem this. But it will be a wave, I believe, and it’s one we certainly can avoid.
Outdoor spectators I have little issue with. Indoor is again problematic.
Different story if the state was at herd immunity, or we had the majority of people vaccinated. We don’t yet.
If I were advising Baker I’d say ramp up the vaccinations, but continue to mitigate, and relax limits once we have the majority of the population vaccinated, which could be as soon as early to mid April (based on back-of-the-envelope calculations).
I would have not done as much for indoor venues. Outdoor venues sure. Many of the things here in the USVI are open at some capacity and the yare hoping by May at least 70% of the population is vaccinated. I feel they could get that but its unlikely as aparently around 30% of the population here are not wanting to get. There are even some people in my program not wanting to get it. Which may become a problem in the near future. I feel that they are really pushing to allow outdoor events to start up again in May. Here in the VI they only have the Pfizer vaccine, there is one place on St. Croix that has Moderna but almost everyone here is getting the Pfizer and it looks to stay that way based on the last governor announcement today.
Agree, Matt. Outdoors is fine. But indoors, especially in confined spaces with lots of people, is really asking for trouble.
I am desperate to go to a restaurant indoors and also my local coffee shop. It’s been a while. But, I’m not going to chance it. While I have no underlying health conditions that appear on the Covid-19 risk chart, I’ve had bronchitis many times. Bad colds go straight to my lungs. So I ain’t risking it at this point. Not at age 56.
I might have an allergy attack or a cold and allergies attack me for a solid week and I can have trouble for weeks after with sinuses and throat things. I can only imagine what would happen if I were to get covid and have to deal with allergies on top of it.
I’ve left out a European country that is seeing its biggest surge yet: Hungary. It’s not that low on the vaccination ranking, either – higher than many West European countries. Yet, its PM – Orban – declared that the next 2 weeks will be the worst the country has faced thus far. He attributes this to the variants. He said on national TV this evening “I only have bad news to convey, unfortunately.”
French local authorities are also sounding the alarm this evening, in Dunkirk, Paris, and several other regions.
Given this, I find it baffling that Baker would open up restaurants to 100% capacity. At least wait a few more weeks to see if the variants take off. Maybe they won’t here. Great. But better safe than sorry.
Globally, cases and hospitalizations on the rise again. 5% this week. U.S. cases on the rise as well. On balance, hospitalizations still falling, but it’s now a trickle compared to last week and certainly the week before.
Pay attention to the case fatality rate. It is higher than it was several months ago, practically everywhere. Also, the average age of those dying has gone down a bit; this is a broad, global phenomenon. I believe this is the variants at work. The coronavirus’ last stand, if you will. We’ve got to vaccinate faster, and require vaccinations as much as is legally possible.
hospitalizations lag behind case numbers/infections if I am understanding correctly.
Indeed they do. Vaccinations will have an impact, a very positive one in that I don’t foresee a big spike in hospitalizations and deaths. Yet, I do predict a modest increase in both indicators in the coming weeks. The vaccine push will stem significant increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. So I don’t foresee another massive surge.
Fauci just supported the concerns here. He was asked when people could start full capacity restaurants. He said gradually. Right now it is family members who are fully vaccinated. Other areas you have to use common sense. Our governor has somehow and somewhere lost the concept of common sense
C-19 for 2-26 is ready.