Sunday February 28 2021 Forecast (6:50AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

On this final day of February 2021 we will be dealing with a minor low pressure system, the second of two to effect the region this weekend. However, unlike Saturday’s which started as snow early in the day in part of the region, followed by rain for most of the region through the day, this system will struggle to do much, putting some rain across the South Coast during the afternoon and taking until tonight to deliver some light rainfall to the rest of the region. The air will be too mild to support any snowfall. After this relatively minor system pulls away in the early hours of Monday, a final band of showers may visit the region during the morning as cold front number 1 of 2 passes by. The air will not be all that cold behind this first cold front, so that Monday itself will be fairly pleasant, temperature-wise, although there will be a gusty breeze. It is when the second cold front, an arctic boundary, arrives from west to east during the evening that the bottom will fall out and the temperature will plunge. The arrival of this air mass may be marked by some snow showers and snow squalls during Monday evening. Snow squalls can quickly drop visibility to near zero with heavy snow, which can also quickly coat the ground and make for slippery travel, even for a while after they have departed. Our arctic air, which will make the second day of March on Tuesday feel more likely the second day of January, will only be around for one day. By Wednesday we’ll see a significant temperature rebound as milder air arrives from the west. However, during Thursday another cold front, this one not quite as strong, will slide through the region from north to south and introduce somewhat colder air once again.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Some afternoon rain South Coast. Highs 45-52. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to SE.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH..

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 45-52 by early afternoon then turning cooler by late-day. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers/squalls possible. Lows 5-12. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW. Wind chill falling below 0.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 15.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20 evening, rising into the 20s overnight. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, shifting to W overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)

Temperatures near to below normal. Watching for a potential winter weather event during the March 6-8 time frame. The beginning and end of this period should be fair.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)

Evolving blocking pattern. A couple of opportunities for unsettled weather. Temperatures near to below normal.

54 thoughts on “Sunday February 28 2021 Forecast (6:50AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Are our storm chances still there? On models, it looks like our
    chances are gone or well on the way to gone. What are they missing? I would love to know what goes into constituting this threat. Many thanks

  3. Thanks TK!

    And thank you Vicki for that info on March 1956 on the previous blog! I had no idea that there were multiple snow events as opposed to one big storm. It was a bit before I was born but there was a lot of talk about that month and year from my own family. Yes, they had their stories to tell.

    2. I have been trying to figure out why I didn’t hear stories. I sure heard them about the 1938 hurricane. My best guess is my dad never saw snow as anything more than a skiing opportunity so it just wasn’t a huge deal to him.

  5. JPD – Thanks also for sharing your March 1956 story. Looking back though, was that a bit of a risk sending you as a 9 year old in all that snow? I hope that errand was important for your mother at the time. 🙂

    1. I don’t remember how important it was. Could have been for milk for the family? I don’t remember.

      Risk? I don’t think so. I do remember getting awfully tired and worn out trudging through all of that deep snow. Sidewalks were not plowed and I decided to take a short cut through an area where nothing was plowed at all. Yes, I loved the snow that much. 🙂

  7. Thanks TK
    Philip any snow recorded yesterday for Boston? If no then snowfall standings remain the same.

    1. I had a good coating at my house, but I couldn’t tell you if it was enough to measure. A tenth or 2 was possible, but probably not likely.

  8. If Boston officially got 0.2 we have a tie heading into March. Anything greater they are in the lead. With a tight race those tenths of an inch are big.

  9. Partly sunny, 77 degrees, winds at 25mph with gusts in the 30s. humidity at 55% Rather nice weather, its going to stink when the wind flow changes from north/northeast/east to a south/southeast direction which brings in the humidity and heat. I hope the cool airmasses continue to push south into the tropical atlantic and continue to cool theo cean temperatures.

  11. Thanks, TK.

    The top March snowstorm for Taunton was March 3-5, 1960 at 22.0″ and ranks in the Top 5 all-time.

    Boston had 17.7″ and Providence 19.8″.

    Enjoy the Sunday! Sox’ first Grapefruit League game today. Games are on NESN tomorrow and Tuesday!

  12. Jimmy – Only a Trace was recorded at Logan yesterday so NY still has its “lead”. I suspect that was for the Boston neighborhoods as well. It did look festive while the snow fell for awhile though. Typical “springlike” snow.

  13. JPD … Yes after seeing the 12z GFS (and its evil twin) I feel the same. The “signal” is there for the potential winter weather event. Using the March 6-8 window for now. I’m honestly not sure, should it come to fruition, if it would be one or two systems, or a drawn-out type of thing. Just see that the atmospheric set-up is the type that can lead to something – so we’ll just have to keep watching. The model runs themselves are not going to provide us with that many clues run-to-run…no surprise there.

    1. Thanks TK. Most interesting. When do you think models will catch on? Curious? Which model do you think will catch on first?

      thanks

      1. Assuming I’m right…
        It will depend on which model. GFS I’ll bet will get back on it first, followed 1 run later by its Canadian & European cousins.

  15. Thanks TK.

    That whole trough modeled in the East next weekend is going to need to make a sizable shift back west to get that storm near us. The Euro, CMC, and GFSv16 all have the storm but it is out near Bermuda. We have some work to do to bring it back. Fortunately we are still 7 days out so there is plenty of time. And we all know how quickly the models can make an “adjustment”. Just 24 hours ago the GFSv16 had the storm close enough to drop 14″ on Boston and today it is a miss even for Bermuda 🙂

  17. Saw the wind advisory posted for a good portion of the region tomorrow night. Any feel for top speeds in the 128 belt? Is top end of 50 more for high elevation and coastal areas?

    1. The big story this week Philip is the temp drop tomorrow night & the wind of possible 50mph. Looks quiet after that with temperatures rebounding throughout the week .

    2. The dynamics are there for some potent snow squalls which could very rapidly drop visibility to zero and cause a quick accumulation of snow on “mild” pavement which would then partially melt & re-freeze if the surface is untreated. While it would be isolated, it could become quite dangerous for a while to travel in local areas. That would be the biggest potential issue. The wind & temp drop will be regionwide, but nothing we haven’t experienced. Just gotta be ready for that…

      The snow / ice-over potential is the most dangerous because it can happen with very little warning & very quickly.

  19. Thank you, TK.

    I recall potent snow squalls in March of 2004 or 2005. Boston got a quick inch or 2, coupled with a ferocious Arctic blast. Too bad it was short-lived, just as this one will be.

    1. We’re going to have additional visits of cold from Canada. The pattern this month is actually turning into the one I thought we’d get.

      Here’s a little tidbit most people probably are unaware of: Joe D’Aleo runs his own climate model which runs out several months, and it forecast a rather cold March when it was run back in the autumn. Now we may not end up with a “below normal” March (time will tell) but it’s not going to be a blow torch month either. Canada still has a series of packages to send us. 😛

      1. And hopefully for your outlook, we also get visits from the southern steam to go with that Canada cold. 🙂

        2. We’ll have some opportunities. I don’t expect guidance to do a good job seeing those chances very far in advance though.

      2. March is a fascinating month. Hard not to give it credit for being as unpredictable as Mother Nature herself. I remember major snows in 1984 and 1993 and hundreds of North American heat records set in March 2012. My oldest said there was not a lot of return to cold after that March 2012 hear.

        1. We had a March around the turn of the century in which we had a couple “hot” days with temperatures reaching the middle to upper 80s on March 31 only to have a back door front come through and drop us to the 40s on April 1! Ironically I left the morning of April 1 for 5 days at Disney World. 😉

          1. Ugh. To miss that. So sorry. My memory is of heading to the barn in Hopkinton where my oldest has her horses. She rode and settles them. I stood outside the barn watching the sky and loving the smell of both barn and air full of snow. The first flakes fell before we left.

            Wonderful wonderful memories

        1. The hints for a shift to 8 & 1 have been there for several days. I do think we’re heading that way. Beware the Ides. 😉

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