Monday March 1 2021 Forecast (7:39AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)

Meteorological Spring begins today, but if the weather could sing, it might be singing “Manic Monday” today, the iconic tune written by Prince but made famous in the 1980s by The Bangles. We’re going to see a few quick changes in the weather over the span of today, which will end vastly different than it starts. We start out with periods of rain and areas of fog this morning as a wave of low pressure moves by. This will end toward midday as the low moves quickly away to the east northeast, and then we’ll have a round of scattered rain showers quickly cross the region as cold front number one moves through. It will dry out quickly behind this front, and although drier air will rid us of any lingering fog and lower clouds, we may hold onto a higher level cloud cover, the back edge of which may take longer to move across the sky. This potentially sets up a nice sunset situation at least for eastern areas, so sunset photographers be on stand-by! Temperatures this afternoon will be fairly steady as an incoming cooler air mass is balanced somewhat by the higher sun angle. And then the second cold front of the day, an arctic boundary, charges across the region from northwest to southeast this evening, accompanied by snow showers and snow squalls for parts of the region, which could quickly cause untreated surfaces to become slippery due to rapid though minor accumulation. This front will be followed by a sharp temperature drop later at night, along with some pretty ferocious wind and resultant wind chill lasting right into and through most of the day Tuesday, which will feel cold even by January standards, let alone early March. The fact that it is early March will help out though because of the higher sun angle, which will take the edge off the cold just a little bit. Luckily, the cold blast will be very short-lived, just a one-day thing, as a warm front will cross the area from west to east Tuesday night and early Wednesday. This front may have a band of light snow with it but that should stay to the north with just some clouds moving across the southeastern New England sky. It will usher in much milder air for Wednesday, and while it will be breezy that day we won’t see anything like the wind of the previous day. But don’t get used to that milder air either, for yet another cold front will drop southeastward from Canada through New England by early Thursday, returning colder air to the region for that day and Friday as well. An upper level low pressure trough crossing the region will probably trigger quite a few diurnal clouds Thursday afternoon, and this energy will still be over the region Friday which could cause additional passing clouds and possibly a few snow flurries.

TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and periods of rain into late morning. Mostly cloudy with additional rain showers west to east early afternoon. Slow clearing from the west mid to late afternoon. Highs 45-52 by midday, then steady temperature first part of afternoon and falling slowly later. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with gusts above 20 MPH over Cape Cod and the South Coast region early to mid morning and variable up to 10 MPH elsewhere through mid morning, SW 5-15 MPH by midday then shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH from west to east early to mid afternoon with higher gusts possible by late in the day.

THIS EVENING: Clearing early, then passing clouds with potential snow showers and snow squalls which may cause quick coating to 1/2 inch accumulation. Temperatures fall 30s through 20s. Wind W shifting to NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH. Wind chill falling below 10.

OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows 6-13. Wind NW 15-30 MPH, gusts 35-50 MPH. Wind chill falling well below zero.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 15.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 13-20 evening, rising into the 20s overnight. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, shifting to W overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Lows 18-25 Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow flurries. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)

Temperatures near to below normal. Watching for a potential winter weather event during the March 6-8 time frame but the trend has been to keep development further south. I don’t completely trust this solution just yet. We’ll be watching the evolution of the pattern into a more blocking set-up (more later).

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)

Blocking pattern. A couple of opportunities for unsettled weather which may include frozen precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

85 thoughts on “Monday March 1 2021 Forecast (7:39AM)”

  3. Thanks, TK

    Thanks for the sunset head’s up. 5:35.

    Sounds like the March lion will be cold and blustery.

  10. 12z models still very far off shore with the ocean storm Sunday though the Euro brought it back closer last night before shifting more SE again in the 12z run. Will keep watching.

    As I mentioned last night on the blog, MJO looking good on both the Euro and GFS with Phases 8-1-2 forecasted the second and third week of March. However some of the other teleconnections are not as favorable with -PNA, +AO, and a neutral NAO.

    Not a pattern that screams snow blitz but maybe we can get a few chances in there in between some milder interludes. Looks like we may have another one of those next week after a chilly upcoming weekend. Typical March up and down temps.

  13. Afternoon ideas….

    Nothing really to add from this morning, actually.
    Cold blast tomorrow – seen this coming for a long time.
    Cannot write off the weekend threat as of yet – we know better.
    Heading toward mid month looks INTERESTING. Don’t put away your shovels yet…………………………

    2. Starting to wonder if maybe we get a head fake warm-up for a few days towards 3/10 but then we turn back the other way not long after. The MJO forecast is definitely most interesting…

    3. Having us come in at 4am for ice but I absolutely do not expect anything as the wind should dry things out

      1. The only potential issue is if a quick snow squall drops a coating that then does a partial melt & refreeze. The rainwater will be long gone.

        1. There will be no issues . I think that squall will be very limited . Wind is howling down here on the south shore .

  14. Thanks TK!

    Been working through a stretch of overnight shifts, always an interesting endeavor. Winds will gust pretty good tonight especially for you all up in SNE. Several hours of gusts 35-45 mph and maybe an occasional gust to 50 or a bit higher. As expected and typical for the time of year, we’ve seen the end of “sustained” winter for the season and moved into a pretty typical “up and down” pattern. As TK has discussed, the pattern favors more below normal the next week or so, though I remain more optimistic for warmer weather opportunities heading into the second week of the month.

    I also would not take the weekend storm off the table. Would not take too much of a change at upper levels to bring that closer to the coast.

    1. Thank you WxWatcher as always. 🙂 I know you’re busy-busy so it’s always nice to see you pop in here to give your thoughts. 🙂

  15. Wind in evidence South Sutton. Fairly steady into the teens with gusts into low 30s. Temp starting to drop

    1. And the arctic front isn’t even here yet…
      Gusting easily to 30+ here in Woburn at the moment.

      1. I know. This is as exciting as any weather even. I sat out for a bit. And I suspect I will again. No fire…too windy….but blankets work. I love the sound of the wind

  16. TK – At what day in this week will you write the weekend threat off? How fast can the patten suddenly change into a more favorable position?

    1. IF it’s written off it’ll be when I’m confident it won’t happen. It won’t be before Wednesday at the earliest. But even if that ends up as a non-event, nobody better get the idea our threats are over for the season – they’re not. Some of the most favorable indices lie ahead of us.

        1. NAO probably neutral but may be slightly negative. MJO is going to be the biggest one I believe.

    1. That’s wild!

      TK, thank you for your terrific forecasting and writing. I don’t always comment, but I always read and appreciate.

    1. HRRR is not overly impressed with snow squall chances for Eastern MA. Oh well, the cold means business regardless.

      1. HRRR is advertising wind gusts from 44 to 53 mph for Boston overnight. I went to take the trash out and the wind nearly blew our storm door right off of the frame!

        1. Hrrr says it will get down to around 6 tomorrow AM.
          Perhaps a bit aggressive. We shall see. 6, 8 or 10, what’s the diff with this wind????

                1. Ours is tomorrow. My SIL put our barrels out to the street when he got home from work this pm. I yelled out to him it might not be a good idea so he pulled barrels back in

  21. Stowe from late this afternoon had 2″ in one hour….

    https://scontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/154969742_10104472959390390_5733284301403267355_o.jpg?_nc_cat=107&ccb=3&_nc_sid=825194&_nc_ohc=YnK6Ks5rLUIAX_ChJ47&_nc_ht=scontent-bos3-1.xx&oh=749d9c13919ba28ebe7f505f10d0f982&oe=6063FD85

    And Bretton Woods NH from a few minutes ago….

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_03/99DBDBD5-B436-4D31-891C-2159D45314F9.jpeg.36e2cce69b0b7a0399cff86fc09b7e94.jpeg

    1. I’m no longer in south Sutton. When we have daylight, I’ll let you know where the house was relocated to

  27. Ha ha ha that’s a good one Vicki.
    I’m surprised at the strength of the wind right now the lights are flickering and we are having consistent gusts either side of 40. I wonder why the NWS didn’t decide to go with a high wind warning, seems like many areas meeting criteria.

    1. It is coming at every side of the house. We have a wind advisory. You don’t or is high wind different from high wind?

  28. NOAA

    High Wind Warning:
    A high wind warning is defined as 1-minute average surface winds of 35 kt (40 mph or 64 km/hr) or greater lasting for 1 hour or longer, or winds gusting to 50 kt (58 mph or 93 km/hr) or greater regardless of duration that are either expected or observed over land.

  29. By some of the reports coming in that criteria is just about being met in some areas. Definitely house rattling gusts tonight. I do love the sound of screaming winds but on the other hand I don’t want any trees on the house.

  34. That was some intense wind last night & still ongoing . It’s brutal out now I think 19 degrees but it’s just for today . I think we have a pretty quiet week moving forward .

  35. It’s 14 degrees in Swampscott.

    I have reservations about so-called wind chill temps, but it is probably about 0 degrees here. Still think I can walk the shore today around 2 PM … hopefully it’ll be in the upper 20’s and less wind.

    By comparison, tomorrow will be a beach day.

        1. HYPORAMA! PATHETIC! This happens EVERY stinken Winter. What the hell is the big deal?????????????????

  37. Wind was nutty last night but seems relatively better over past few hours. Hope we have seen the worst of it.

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