Monday March 8 2021 Forecast (7:28AM)

34 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 8-12)

One week of March in the books, and the second week of the third month of 2021 will showcase some of the swings of weather, especially temperature, that the month is known for here in New England. But we’ll start out with a fairly tranquil and chilly day today under the influence of high pressure. As this high center slips to the south, first a warm front will cross the region from west to east tonight producing an increase in cloudiness. While a band of snow will be most prominent along this boundary across northern New England, some areas of snow are also possible here in southeastern New England as it passes by, but not enough to perhaps lightly coat the ground with snow in the pre-dawn hours. Tuesday, the front will be by, the sun will return, and any snow that dusted the ground would quickly vanish as we saw significantly milder air arrive. But that will be just a preview of what’s to come. First, a weak cold frontal boundary will slip into the region nearly unnoticed as it will be running out of forward motion later Tuesday and also have little or no cloud cover with it, and then the boundary will push back to the north again at night. As high pressure sits along the Middle Atlantic Coast and extends offshore, the region will be in a southwesterly air flow through midweek. Wednesday, this air flow may be weak enough so that midday and afternoon sea breeze form along the NH & MA eastern shores. This would hold temperatures back from reaching the levels they reach inland. The other except, both Wednesday & Thursday, will be that a southwesterly air flow comes off ocean water along the South Coast, which would be cooler as well. When we get to Friday, we’ll see cloudiness and a risk of rain showers as a cold front moves in from the north, but the temperature forecast for that day is critically dependent on the timing of this front. It’s a day-five forecast at this point but my early guess is that the frontal boundary will still be north of the WHW forecast area when the day starts, so it will be quite a mild day as well, but not until its end, because it will be a day when the temperature starts to drop significantly as the front pushes through. Obviously, there’s fine-tuning to be done for Friday’s forecast.

TODAY: Sunshine but some high clouds in the western sky later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds advance west to east. Snow showers possible overnight with scattered dustings and light coatings of snow. Lows 22-29. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early clouds then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW up to 10 MPH then calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65 except 50-57 South Coast and some East Coast areas. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but probable sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-68 except 53-60 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 59-66 except 51-58 South Coast through midday, then falling temperatures by later in the day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW then N from north to south midday on.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 13-17)

Dry, cooler to colder weekend (40s Saturday, 30s Sunday) as high pressure builds in from Canada. Watch the period later March 15 to early March 17 for unsettled weather which may include some wintry precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 18-22)

Near to below normal temperatures with additional unsettled weather possible as we’ll be near a boundary between a cold Canada and mild US Southeast.

34 thoughts on “Monday March 8 2021 Forecast (7:28AM)”

  4. News anchor on the radio just called today’s weather “Winters last gasp”. I guess what they really meant to say was “the gasp before the last few gasps”. 😀

    Happy to make that correction for them, free of charge. 😉

  10. Also am I correct to say: Congratulations on winning that photo contest TK! Voting ended last night if memory serves and you had the most votes far and away last I checked.

  11. Thanks TK and congrats on the “unofficial” photo contest victory!

    Saranac Lake, NY this morning recorded a low temperature of -16F! And to think what a difference it will be in 48 hours, even there.

  12. Thanks!
    Yes it is official.
    My entry received 1,061 votes with the runner up getting 683.

    Those other 9 photos were all wonderful. Any of them could have won the contest. 🙂

    1. When will they be putting up the new photo on their accounts or will it be something they put on there next winter? Seems kind of late in the season to be switching to a winter photo when we are nearing the start of Spring!

    1. Not surprised! I have a hunch milder air wins out. We are getting into mid March soon, not January. While it is still winter climatology, it just doesn’t have the same feel as deep winter nor same impact. I’ll put the shovels away soon and let mother nature and sun angle do the work.

  16. TK, Congrats on winning the photo contest!!!!! We all know how talented you are in many things, especially meteorology, photography and writing.

    Now the world knows!

  18. Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    Mar 7

    Last time we had 10 straight dry days in March was in 2006…so all this sunshine is quite unusual for the month

  19. NWS Boston
    @NWSBoston
    4h

    Make sure you get a chance to enjoy the well advertised warm up this week. Why? because as they say “its not over till its over” winter that is. Indications are for a return of colder than normal temps and precipitation in the upcoming weeks. No guarantees but…

  21. The 6-10 & 8-14 from CPC today have the most widespread below normal probabilities for temperature that I have seen in a very long time………………….

    This month is shaping up to give a huge boost to the accuracy of Joe D’Aleo’s Pioneer climate model which forecast a colder March all the way back in the middle of autumn…

    1. This is what I find interesting about below normal forecast probabilities. Is there a bit overhype when below normal temperatures are forecasted and people automatically think cold weather on the horizon? The temperature could be one two or three degrees below normal during this period. Is low to mid 40s considered cold? Not really in my humble opinion. 🙂

      1. People just seem to over-react to “pretty colors” on a map. In fact I think the majority of folks don’t even realize that those maps show percentages and not necessarily magnitude of warmth. So yes, basically I agree.

  22. Thank you TK! A big congratulations to you on your art winning first place! You seem to have a keen eye for capturing the right angle, lighting and framing of a scene.

  23. If the 18z GFS is right, a historic snowstorm is in the making for Colorado later this week. Kuchera snowmap has 45″ of snow for Denver and over 80″ for Colorado Springs. Upwards of 100″ of snow along the front range. The GFSv16 and CMC also have massive snow totals. Check out this snowmap:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2021030818&fh=150&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

    NWS Boulder is handling it pretty well in their long term forecast discussion:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOU&issuedby=BOU&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

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