Tuesday March 9 2021 Forecast (7:24AM)

46 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)

A warm front passed by overnight with cloudiness and a few areas to the north seeing a few snow showers, and a weak cold front will cross the region later today but you’ll hardly notice it – we just have a nice day in store. The warm-up increases for the interior Wednesday but a weak wind gradient means that coastal areas will have a sea breeze and will be much cooler, but again another fair weather day. All areas get into southwesterly winds on Thursday which will be warmer for most, with the exception of coastal areas where a southwest wind has to travel over some ocean water first – those places, particularly the South Coast, will be coolest that day. Friday, a cold front slices across the region from north to south, maybe bringing a few rain showers, certainly a lot more clouds, and probably resulting in an “upside-down” temperature day, warmest the first half, cooling later, again highly dependent on the precise timing of the front. Saturday will be a “back-to-reality” day, with temperatures more typical for mid March but with dry weather as high pressure presses in from Canada.

TODAY: Early clouds then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind NW up to 10 MPH then calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52 coastal plain, 53-63 well inland. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 evening, may rise slightly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening, SW 5-15 MPH overnight.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-68 except 53-60 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 59-66 except 51-58 South Coast through midday, then falling temperatures by later in the day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW then N from north to south midday on.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)

Dry, colder (30s) March 14 to end the weekend and early next week for the Ides on March 15. Watching for unsettled weather as low pressure approaches and moves through around March 16 and it may include some frozen precipitation. Drier and still on the chilly side for later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)

Near to below normal temperatures with additional unsettled weather possible as we’ll be near a boundary between a cold Canada and mild US Southeast.

46 thoughts on “Tuesday March 9 2021 Forecast (7:24AM)”

  1. Thanks TK!

    I am beginning to wonder now if any more frozen precipitation will be realized in SNE for this month. I see no hints from the tv mets. NBC-10’s extended outlook has 40s for temps next week with some rain.

    If I recall, Mark posted that the cold was going to remain to our north and any systems would pass to our north as well. Also, the Phases “8 and 1” will now be considerably weaker.

    TK – Your thoughts on this?

  6. Thanks TK !

    Phillip, a small thought to your question above ……

    We´re getting to a strong enough sun, where the surface temp can get well into the 40s and yet, without a cold front passage. that airmass can be cold enough above, that when precip moves in, it can cool the column to snow.

    Of course, you can get the Canadian cold front passage and introduce a colder airmass too for snow also.

    Can we go without snow, sure ! But, climatology favors another snowfall at some point in the next 3 to 5 weeks.

    1. Thanks Tom! I forgot about mechanisms like “dynamic cooling” typical for this time of year. Not to mention 1997 when we went from 60+ temps to an April Fools Blizzard. I don’t recall anyone seeing that coming days in advance.

      1. Philip, I can remember a time in April, during the Late 60’s I believe. It was 64 degrees during the afternoon and WITHOUT a cold front passages, it was SNOWING by 10 PM and dropped about 4 inches. It is how cold the air is above us that matters most.

  7. Thanks TK.

    Noontime, and temperatures in many areas have exceeded the forecast highs up and down the East Coast.

    I’ll just set that as a “scheduled post” for the next two days also 😉

    Not meant as a knock on anyone of course, just a reminder of how bad models are with temperatures in these patterns, and that it’s imperative to correct upwards.

  9. Thanks TK.

    12z GFS, GFSv16, and CMC definitely have a colder look to them again next week vs the runs yesterday at this time. And they all exhibit chances for multiple frozen precip events over the course of the next two weeks, especially the CMC next week with two back to back events. Typical long range model flip flopping.

    I would put our chances very low that we are done with accumulating snow. Should be at least a few opportunities the second half of the month.

  10. Models continue to pump out epic snow snow totals for the Colorado storm later this week. Might have to make a trip out there!

    12z GFS continues to pump out about 45″ for Denver and 65″ for Colorado Springs with 80-100″ along the front range of the Rockies…

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2021030912&fh=147&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc=

    The GFSv16 and CMC are slightly more modest with “only” about 2 feet for Denver but they also center the higher 3-5 foot totals further north across Wyoming and NE CO.

  11. Thanks, TK!

    Definitely a change in the air! Winds are up.
    I wonder if we’ll be in Red Flag/fire danger soon.

    Robert, hope your recovery is coming along well!

    Great news: I was four-for-four in getting me, Mrs. Fantastic and the Fantastic sisters-in-law Covid-19 vaccinations appointments this morning! Woo-Hoo! Thank goodness I was home (remote day) and my students are working on (well, at least they’re supposed to be working on) chapter projects today.

    I am all over Eastern Massachusetts Friday and Sunday at all hours, including two trips to the Reggie Lewis Center in Roxbury, but, who cares! You gotta do what ya gotta do! Woo-Hoo!!! (hey, that rhymes!)

    I am setting up a GoFundMe to send JPD to Colorado Springs.
    🙂 🙂 🙂

  13. Thank you, TK.

    Mark, thank you for reminding us all that winter isn’t quite over. It’s being dealt a major body blow this week, but we’re not yet at the “down goes Frazier” moment. That’ll come soon enough.

    And regarding Colorado that’s epic. May be indeed be worth a trip to get out there.

    Denver has some crazy temperature swings. Been to several conferences there in the spring, and both times experienced 2 or 3 seasons in several days. Wild! Love Coloradans (is that the word?). Laid back, fun.

      1. True.

        Also, well north of Colorado I have a friend in Montana who said it was close to 60F last week for several days.

  15. Philip … To answer your question above…

    Yes there will be opportunities. Just because nothing super-solid shows up on models that we know are wishy-washy (like Charlie Brown) we know by the pattern that the opportunities will exist.

    I definitely don’t take my clues from TV mets, not that I think they don’t know how to give them, but 5-day, 7-day, and 10-day forecasts with an icon & a temp are not really going to tell you much and they usually don’t have time to elaborate on their short-window segments anyway. There are exceptions. NECN gives longer slots for weather and once in a while the met on the air (Tim Kelley especially) will go into a bit more detail about how he expects the pattern to unfold, and tries to explain it in layperson’s terms. He’s good like that…but it’s definitely true that others could do that – but just don’t have the time to do so. Some of them make up for that via Twitter.

  16. I wouldn’t be looking to 5-15 day model outlooks for sensible weather outcomes. The one thing I do note is every day the frozen precipitation get pushed out another day or two. Sometimes the trend is not your friend and especially as the calendar goes deeper into March.

    I do think this current weather is for sure a tease and it maybe late March before we see it again. Cooler, with some more clouds and precip is coming. This March has been noteworthy for its abundant sunshine. This however does not mean there are any significant snowfalls coming and I know that is what most here are hanging on for. Maybe, but I would have thought accumulating snow would have come before our first March 60 degree day. I was wrong.

    I am sold on no solution. March is a tough month to get right. TK stuck his neck out with a bold forecast and it only takes one big one to make it verify. Let’s see if he proves right. I have already been proven wrong on some my first half of the month thoughts.

      1. Your youngest is right. Spring started about May 18th which set us off on a long dry and warming stretch.

        1. Thank you, JMA. If she hadn’t been right, I was counting on you to tell her. She is more of a force to be reckoned with than her mom……and her four year old scares us all 😉

  19. Damaging winds possible later this week with the cold frontal passage Fri into Sat…

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher

    While we enjoy a nice week, tuck this one in the back of your mind

    Another strong wind event likely Friday overnight into early Saturday morning. Deeply mixed atmosphere with 55 knots not far off the ground means a period of 40-60mph gusts possible for us

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1369407287694143488?s=20

  20. Mark, I’ve printed that model output with the perfectly located low and snow in SNE. That’s a lock. Guaranteed.

    I also noticed the weird snow totals being depicted for Denver and vicinity, with the city getting a ton of snow but places as close as 15 miles from the city getting very little. Odd.

  21. Mark, TK, anybody:

    Can someone tell me the time of the frontal passage and winds Friday?
    The kids have a big football game at 6:30.

    1. I wish I knew the exact time 4 days in advance, but I am pretty sure it will have already long passed by at 6:30…

    2. I’d defer to TK but based on what I am seeing in the models, the stronger winds would hold off until later at night into Saturday. Temp should be dropping by game time though.

    1. Yes. Facebook & Twitter cover photo. Pretty neat to be there for a while. 🙂

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