Thursday Forecast Update

136 Comments

3:30AM

No big changes from last discussion. Warm front moves through today preceded by very light precipitation, mainly rain. Cold front moves through tonight preceded by rain showers. Secondary front passes Friday with gusty winds and a colder trend. High pressure brings a cold/dry Saturday. Cold air lingers Sunday but a low pressure trough means that snow showers are possible, especially closer to the coast. Low pressure sails north of New England Monday with slightly milder air but a gusty breeze and a few rain or snow showers possible.

Tricky part of forecast comes after this, when trying to determine the timing of low pressure coming out of the southwestern USA, and its exact track, and whether we get just rain, a mix of rain and snow, or more snow than rain, during the Tuesday-Thursday time period. Vague wording will be used for now, to depict a storm threat, with days left to work out detail. Leaning toward a slower solution, that is, the storm arriving on Wednesday, and having at least some chance of snow being involved with it for parts of the region. Additional storminess may occur just prior to Christmas as well, so chances of at least some of the region seeing a white Christmas remain in place at this time.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Cloudy. A slight risk of pre-dawn very light rain/snow, a few periods of light rain possible during the morning with a tiny bit of freezing rain possible far NW of Boston (outside 495), then a chance of rain showers this afternoon. Late-day high 46-51. Wind light SE shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, followed by a clearing sky. Low 38-43. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 44-49 before noon then cooling back through the 40s later. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH, diminishing by the end of the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with a slight chance of a rain or snow shower. Clear overnight. Low 24-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sunshine and patchy clouds. High 35-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 22-27. Wind N-NE 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. High 33-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy and windy with a few rain or snow showers possible. Low 28. High 41.

TUESDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Low 24. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with snow or rain possible. Low 30. High 40.

136 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks TK

    NWS discusses possible norlon trough for sat night and a very tricky forecast. They are still sticking with mostly rain for Wednesday with some frozen
    Precip at the start. Seems like plenty of cold air comes in Tuesday night and who knows long it will take to scour out. euro also looking more in line with GFS over the next 10 days or so. Euro depicts a nice low on Xmas eve as well.

    2. The position of the low looks to be perfect but we will need other ingredients to make it a plow-able event.

  3. Thanks for the update TK !! How high will the temps go today is my curiosity for this day to follow………

    Not many people left over here on the no measurable snow bandwagon for December. 🙂

  4. Good morning temp wise very mild, like u said tk no big changes I still continue to see very low chances of measurable snow before the holidays, it’s possible a little snow is possible but not sure I’m going to get excited on an inch or 2, I continue to see a slight milder trend after Christmas and going into the new year, it’s early but that has been consistent in the long range, I agree with most that winter will come between jan 4th-7th. Have a great day everyone 🙂

    1. Charlie, it feels as if it were just yesterday it was a week before Thanksgiving and we were talking about the Christmas music playing nonstop.

  6. today showers highs in the upper40s
    tonight chance of showers lows in the upper30s to low40s
    friday warm and sunny highs in the upper40s temps falling into the 30s durring the afternoon
    friday night clear with lows in the mid to upper20s
    saturday partly sunny a slight chance of snow or rain showers late highs in the upper30s
    saturday night a chance of snow showers/light snow
    sunday partly sunny highs in the mid30s
    sunday night clear lows in the upper10s to low20s
    monday and tuesday partly sunny highs in the low40s lows in the20s
    wednesday cloudy a chance of rain highs in the low40s
    wednesday night a chance of an icy mix lows in the upper20s to low30s
    thursday cool highs in the low to mid 30s cloudy with a chance of snow or rain

  7. Btw I am not thinking any of these chances are anything huge but Charlie many of us would take 2/3 inches before xmas:)

  10. Nice mild morning today. Well, at least the models are starting to get a little more interesting for us. I have a feeling that if we do get any snow out of this pattern, we might not know it until late in the game.

  12. Thanks TK

    You all know I love snow – that’s an understatement – and would love to see it on the ground for Christmas. But the closer we get, the more I worry about it arriving in time to keep people from getting home to families. When it comes to snow or family, I have to go with family – for both Christmas and New Years!

    1. The only one I could see as potential trouble right now is the 21st if somehow that materialized more as a snow/mix scenario.

      1. Thanks TK – my family is mostly just here so it would not greatly impact us but there are so many around the country that head in this direction and it would be a shame. Nothing to do of course.

        Do you see anything as far out as New Year’s Eve? That would impact us as several of my family are heading, as you know, for the south shore

        1. I’ve been around weather long enough to know nit to trust completely in the “no snow” theory. This is the type of pattern that begs you to let your guard down so it can sneak up and bite you in the behind…

  14. coastal,

    we can rule out that o.s. is skaing on Jamaica Pond.

    I’m not loving my Jan. 13 call for 1″ of ice right now.

        1. Location to the coast would not effect whether it freezes or not. You need clear,clam and cold nights with lots of radiational cooling to get that pond to freeze. I am sure the water temp has dropped a bit in the last week so its a start.

  15. What I don’t understand from the 00z EURO is that it’s showing ridging on the western flank of the storm off the east coast on the 23rd. You would expect to see troughing on the back side of a low pressure system.
    We’ll have to keep a close eye on Saturday night’s potential snow for eastern Mass, as the snow ratios would be high given the 850mb temps will be cold.

  16. Bad news from Henry Marguisty for us snowlovers. I am hoping he is wrong.
    On the UGH meter I am giving that news a 5 since winter technically has not started yet.

  17. Just came back from doing errands. As I was driving I noticed from the corner of my eye a patch of white and automatically I thought, “a snowbank – snow is melting.” But then I realized it was just a white rock at the end of a driveway. Also, besides the air feels almost springlike. And the sun tried briefly to come out in a hazy sky – made me think of summer. Wow. This is so wrong. We should have had some snow by now, w/the exception of the weird snowstorm in Oct.

    I also have mixed emotions on a white Christmas. It would be nice but so many people traveling. My mother, sister and brother-in-law might come for Christmas dinner here but they only have to come from Framingham. In any case, I still believe that winter will be coming!

  20. the pattern just doesn’t seem to want to change and allow for secondary development. just front end mix/snow potential unless we can get something to sneak under us on a stalled front or something. pattern just too quick and west.

  21. According to Henry Margusity, warmth is expected to continue January thru March with very few cold spells in between. When Henry gives up on snow, is it time for us to give up as well?

    It still remains to be seen regarding January, February, March (even early April) but I would say a snowless December is now a sure bet, for sure. 🙁

    I guess that SE ridge is much stronger than anyone imagined…it could be around for many months to come. It has been in place since September.

  22. I think OS is giving up on the snow chances, his silence speaks volume. I take this as a bad sign more than the latest 12z run 🙁

      1. Flurries on Christmas Day and a possible snow even for New Years.

        John’s Gut and TK’s Prediction of measurable snow before the end of the year is not looking good.

        2. I agree with TK. Not backing down. You all are saying next weeks storm is off. Its not even next week, give it a chance. The snow that hits this month will be surprise sneek type of storm.

  23. Tweet from Barry

    BarryWBZ Barry Burbank
    Very cold weekend coming… 33-37 Saturday, 30-34 Sunday. Snow showers espec. southeastern New Eng… ground-whitening to 1-3″ possible.#wbz

      1. John your loosing faith too, look at your post above. This is simply a outside shot for a small portion of the area to receive some snow. Far from plowable like you predicted. Though I route for a surprise.

    2. I use to live in East Braintree by the shipyard and I remember one ocean effect event very clearly. Hanover received 6″ t0 8″ of snow, at my house in Braintree we received 2″. I worked in southie at the time and on my way into work the snow depth would fade the further I drove. Quincy police station had a dusting and halfway down Walliston Beach there was nothing. Very localized event.

      1. Yes….when I was at Lyndon State, we were amazed by an event that dumped over a foot of snow in about 4 hours in a very small area near Kennebunkport, ME….Ogunquit, ME…in that area, I think it was March and it was in the early to mid 1990s. Completed localized event. Very microscale mini vortex developing on an inverted trof, as I recall.

  25. Henry Margusity’s enthusiasm is great. His forecasts, however, are sub-par. He often overestimates snowstorms, but is also prone to exaggeration when it comes to predicting the demise of winter as early as December!

    It is shaping up to be a snowless and relatively mild December. Virtually all forecasters were wrong about the beginning of this winter. Joe Bastardi, in particular, was wrong this year, as he was last year, and the year before. His forecasting skills are so overblown I try to tune him out, especially when I never hear him explain his mistaken projections. Lundberg and Anderson over at accuweather are much less hype-driven.

    For those among us (myself included) who are impatient about when and if winter will arrive, there is still plenty of time for winter to make itself known, albeit in a fragmented, up and down way. I stand by my prediction for late-season blows, some of which (in late February and March) may be technical knock-outs.

    1. I agree with your prediction on late-season snowstorms. It seems to be setting up that way – for now, anyway.

      1. I said a while ago the seasons seem to be shifting and agree that it will be late – if it happens. My gut feeling is nothing but a dusting – if anything – before the end of this month. I was just outside and it smells like spring out there. Also, the thin layer of ice on the skating rink my SIL set up for my grandson has melted and it’s back to just water.

        1. Sorry that the ice melted! Hopefully it will freeze up again soon. And as I posted earlier, it seems like spring outside.

          And Vicki – we better get at least one decent snowstorm this winter – if we get no snow (I can’t see that) – something is very wrong!

  27. Just throw out the 12z GFS.
    The models are having a tough time with what happens to the ridging after this weekend, as in what will it look like and how strong it will be. The models may have a better handle of the rebuilt ridge and that storm by the beginning of next week.
    I don’t think the ridging is going to be as strong as it has been recently.

  28. Another great post by WeatherWizard on the BZ blog to check out. His thoughts much different than Henry Margusity.

  29. interesting there a chance of rain and snow showers for eastern mass. on saturday as some precipitation breaks off another system well to the south and east. giving the cape and island some measurable snow not plowable but light snow amounts
    then a possible light snow event monday
    with a bigger event coming tuesday night and wednesday with a mix of snow and rain.
    with another event later on in the week. All of this happening with near normal temps . weekend will actually struggel to reach the mid30s and night time lows dip into the teens and low20s.

  31. The 12z EURO builds a weak SE ridge that only lasts 2 days before a trough digs into the east. Although I am noticing timing issues between this run and the 00z run of the EURO.

  33. Forecaster High Temp Low Temp % Precip Amt Precip Overall
    AccuWeather.com Boston 88.67% 91.33% n/a 98.05% 91.10%
    Weatherist.com Most Probable 90.33% 89.00% 84.67% 98.05% 89.70%
    Weather.com Boston 92.00% 89.33% 78.67% n/a 88.67%
    NWS Boston 92.00% 85.67% 84.67% n/a 88.11%
    WCVB ABC 5 Boston 91.33% 82.00% n/a n/a 86.67%
    WFXT FOX 25 Boston 90.33% 70.67% n/a n/a 80.50%
    WHDH NBC 7 Boston 90.33% 64.67% n/a n/a 77.50%
    WBZ CBS 4 Boston 91.33% 61.67% n/a n/a 76.50%

  34. Easy to see the cold front on radar in western NY State. Pretty decent line of showers and thundershowers(maybe) on the radar.

  35. I have to respectfully disagree with WW’s thoughts that the regime change will take place before January. Quite frankly, I don’t see the pattern ever changing completely (permanently). We will probably get bouts of wintry wx from time to time (no more than 5-8 days worth in any given period) but the mild regime will dominate. The SE ridge will always be lurking out there.

    I wish WW would post over here and stop wasting his good posts at WBZ. Interesting though, very few trolls posts over there since hurricane Irene.

  36. Question Phillip? What data do you have to disagree with WW. He presents several meterogical reasons for his analysis. Are going by something else or just the a feeling? Thanks

    1. I know u didn’t ask me but everyday I look at long range models it shows a short cold spell followed by a warm spell, Im not sure we ever get into a true month solid of cold and snow, I think we get cold and snow to get warm and rain a week later type winter

      1. Hadi…I pretty much agree with Charlie. The only difference is that I rely also on historical data, life experience and of course, gut feeling maybe a bit too much. From what I have seen, when it snows in October, it is pretty much already the kiss of death for snow lovers.

        Maybe the 2011-12 winter will be different, but history is not in our favor for even normal snowfall. We will see though.

        1. Two things I noticed on your post. First I am glad to have another person on here who goes by gut feeling. There are a few of us here. And second It snowed last October and look at all the snow we got. Yes it was not like this year but some towns brought out plows like Foxboro.

  37. Tom – you are right. I just saw Matt Noyes and there is a line of potentially severe thunderstorms out in western NY – might have brought some trees down. We might get some thunder overnight but will probably weaken from what they are now. Matt Noyes also mentioned a slight chance of snow flurries Sat. night/Sun. morning. Well – that’s nice, except I wish it would snow during the daylight hours so I could see some snow falling! He also said chances of precip. nxt. wk. but wouldn’t say too much, which is understandable.

  38. WW’s thoughts are based in solid science. One of the things he, Barry, and myself have mentioned has been sudden stratospheric warming, associated with the breakdown of the polar vortex. This is not well-forecast by computers, and is almost certainly associated with major pattern changes if not complete regime changes.

  39. I notice that the NWS has come off the idea of this Monday night / Tuesday rain event. A step in the right direction for them.

  40. TK, why do you believe that the SE ridge is going to break down sooner rather than later? Am I (and Henry Margusity for that matter) overestimating it?

    If you could explain the SE ridge in general terms, that may help me understand better…thanks.

    1. If you experience breakdown of the polar vortex, you are going to send a series of strong troughs further south than when the vortex is tighter around the polar region. This can knock the ridge down.

          2. TBD. La Nina patterns more often than not lead to snowier and/or colder than normal winters, but at this moment, the La Nina is too weak and other climate indicies not in the right kind of phase to make that come to be true.

  41. Sorry to break up the conversation w/my postings – but there’s an area of showers heading towards the Boston area. No big deal – I’m just thinking that w/the actual cold front still out west, if this was summer, the showers coming our way now would probably be strong thunderstorms. A squall line. OK – I can’t help it! Per the conversation earlier, I prefer tracking summer storms to winter storms! 🙂

    Have a good night everyone!

    1. Hi rainshine…most of those showers will be passing just to the north of Boston, but my bet is we get some rain from the southern flank of that shield. The cold front is still out in western NYS and will pass through Boston around 3-4 am.

      Showers are actually in weakening mode, but I don’t know what would be happening if this were summer…let’s get through winter and spring first. 🙂

      1. Thanks, Philip! I know – sometimes I just get too excited when I see or hear about thunderstorms. But I am looking forward to snow – if it ever gets here! 🙂

  44. Both the Euro & GFS models offer some hope for at the very least some snow in the air prior to Christmas, and in some cases more than just in the air. This whole no-snow-for-the-rest-of-December thing continues to be not something I’m going along with. Granted, I’m not saying we are going to get buried, but we’ll break the snow drought in the next 10 days to 15 days tops.

    2. I happened to catch Harvey Leonard at 6pm and the model he showed had a bullseye of 2.1 inches of snow for Sat night/Sun morning in Marshfield. Wouldnt it be funny if the autumnal warmth, helping to keep ocean temps relatively mild, caused enough instability to hit the south shore and Cape with an ocean effect snow event….

      1. So Tom would that be mostly us and cape. I hope Boston would be out so I don’t get called in. We have big plans on Saturday night. My friend is having a xmas party compleat with ice deluge
        for sucking down those shots. We even have a sitter lined up something that does not happen because we never get to go out.My wife had so much fun at last years party she just can’t wait. I better not say anything yet.

        1. Have fun Saturday night…….and no, I dont think it included Boston. Started around Hingham, points south and east. As I recall his words, he said….”This is what one of our models is showing.” …….I got the idea he used it to convey to the public that there shouldnt be any surprise to see some snowshowers in the air Sat night/Sun morning nearby coastal areas south of Boston.

          1. of course its going to snow in Marshfield, I’ve been saying its not going to snow in December. 🙂 🙂 🙂 …..When my wife hears me say good weather or sunshine, she gets worried. When I start talking storms several days out, she knows its clear sailing.

  45. I just heard on tonight’s CBS Evening News that NOAA is calling for a mild winter east of the Mississippi all due to La Nina.

  46. So Pete from ch7 is sticking with a brown xmas not white. He said we may, may get a dusting to inch tops on Sunday for some. Also said looking to turn wintry after xmas with the block from last dec and jan returning. He said tomorrow stuck in the middle. Not to cold or warm 40s. Very cold weekend.

    1. I don’t put a whole lot of stock in what Ch 7 says. Not that I think Pete is a bad meteorologist. I think somewhere in the communication there is a difficulty.

      1. I at one point liked him Tk. But now he does nothing for me, yet I read his blog every night go figure. You know Harvey is my man, and you as well. Tk if you saw my post to Tom on if Boston gets snow Saturday night. Can you look into this for me. Tom said Harvey was talking like 2inches down this way. My wife and I have a rare, unheard of night out on Saturday. She has been talking non stop about this party. If Boston evens gets a light dusting I would be called in. Tom had said from Hingham down is what Harvey might have said. Although you and I know we will be getting snow this month I just can’t have it to after xmas. Where I work the lightest dusting is a call in.

      2. Agree with this comment a lot. Pete is not a great communicator. Sometimes I think he says half of what he wants to tell you and thinks the other half, and then concludes he has communicated the whole picture. Other times stuff comes out as giberish. Also agree his forecasts can be on the money.

        1. I’ll continue to say I like him. I have this protective thing about people I know – even loosely. I’ve never had trouble understanding anything pete says.

  47. sadly the last 2 model runs of the gfs and euro has shifted the storms up to christmas to far west to give us a chance of snow
    some ocean effect snow showers this weekend but that s all. next wednesday and wednesday night looks interesting as it might be a mix to rain to snow kind of storm.
    At least we are going to see normal December temperatures

    1. There is still time for that to change. Any wintry precipitation for the mid week storm system looks to be in the interior.
      Any wintry precipitation changes to rain as the low is forecasted to go to the west putting us on the mild side. How many
      times have we said that in the past several weeks.

      1. mix in the interior is not what i want to here i want to hear snow around495 since i live in billerica

  49. Temps…….

    For tonight, its all in the timing. I get the idea at midnight, the temps are not going to be very far from the current readings. So, even though tomorrow afternoon will have slowly falling temps and wind chills, many stations might well record Friday highs of 50 to 55F around the midnight hour. That will be on top of what is likely to be a +10 to +12F anomoly today….

    Going forward, by Monday afternoon, mid-upper 40s are back and those will help to offset the 3to 4F below normal departures over the weekend.

    Continuing forward, Logan’s avg. low is now 28 and will be coasting down to 24F by months end. A few storms, even ones going just to our south, with borderline rain/snow are going to keep overnight lows not far from 30F….I dont see any arctic blasts or anything thats going to result in a few or more days with huge negative departures. I think the month ends with most stations somewhere above +5 or +6F departures.

    1. Tom, the last graphic I saw during a weathercast had Boston at +5.8F so far for December…I forget which tv met had it. My bet is even if we get real cold after Christmas, Boston should be at +4F at the very least.

      Another month in a row (4?) of well above normal temps. I believe this stretch started in September.

      1. I feel that nature balances itself out. From warmth to cold or to snow. I simply have a feeling that we will get 2 or 3 hard hits in 2012 that we will average above normal snow.

      2. Yes, several months in a row. I think the last below normal month was last June. August only was a degree or two above and then its been climbing ever since.

    1. JJ and Coastal,

      I agree. So, if that holds true here, watch out from Feb thru April. Thats when I think, after 6 months of +NAO, the atmosphere will feature some episodes of -NAO.

  51. From NWS upton re: Next week’s storm:

    WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY
    TO GET INTO SPECIFICS…THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
    ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MAINLY INTERIOR ZONES FROM THIS SYSTEM

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