Saturday March 13 2021 Forecast (8:39AM)

57 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 13-17)

Two cold fronts down, one to go, in this surge back to cold weather again. Behind the first front yesterday we were still able to enjoy a very mild March day as the air mass was only very slightly cooler than the one that preceded the front, but last night the second front blasted through, literally, with pretty strong wind gusts that again took down weakened tree limbs in some areas, and we feel that wind still blowing this morning, as it will do much of the day, though gradually backing off as the afternoon goes along. It’s delivered a colder air mass too, and we’re back to reality in the temperature department today (40s for highs, but with colder wind chill). Just when you think we’re about to come out of it Sunday, front #3 passes by with perhaps some rain and snow showers on Sunday, and behind it comes year another surge of wind and the coldest air of this spell Sunday night into Monday – the Ides of March will have a stinging cold bite this year. The chilly air will ease back toward the middle of next week as we continue to watch for impact from low pressure trying to move in from the west, but the latest trends are for high pressure to move over the region later Monday and hold strong enough into Tuesday so that a lot of the moisture from this system will dry up. With some lower level moisture being drawn in from the Atlantic as high pressure moves off to the east, we will probably have to at least deal with some increase in cloudiness by Tuesday and Wednesday. Before moving into the detailed forecast, it’s imperative to note that the NWS has issued a Red Flag Warning for today for high brush fire danger, due to drier ground in areas that have lost snow cover, very low relative humidity and gusty wind. Under these conditions which will exist today, and likely through Monday, brush fires can start easily and spread quickly. Don’t use open flames outside (grilling, back yard burning, etc.). One spark can ignite a fire that can grow and spread and threaten property and wildlife. This may not be California, but we do have a fire season, and it’s starting now.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH morning, diminishing to 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered rain and snow showers late morning through mid afternoon. Highs 40-47 in the morning then temperature falling through the 30s in the afternoon. Wind W 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH. Wind chill near to below zero at times.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 18-22)

Being near the boundary of cold air in Canada and milder air over the US Southeast will leave us vulnerable to unsettled weather and a rain/mix/snow even is very possible March 18-19, followed by some improvement. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 23-27)

The overall regime will keep us in a battle zone between lingering winter cold in Canada and warmer spring weather in the US Southeast, again typical for this time of year. This pattern leaves us vulnerable to quick weather changes and temperature swings.

57 thoughts on “Saturday March 13 2021 Forecast (8:39AM)”

  4. 37 years ago today there was a fairly significant snowstorm. It paled in comparison to the one later that month though.

  5. TK, good morning and thanks for the update.

    Couldn’t walk the shore this AM … the wind made it bitter. Try for later.

  7. Thanks TK!

    Hopefully that Thursday-Friday event delivers a solid round of precip. This pattern is starting to look pretty bone dry for the rest of the month otherwise. Second warm season in a row where drought will be the word? Luckily we just about fully recovered from last year’s, but the current dry spell is coming at a worse time given we’re entering peak fire season.

    FWIW, I personally think it’s more likely than not that SNE is done with widespread accumulating snow for the season, but of course it’s still weeks too early to say for sure.

    1. I can’t be that confident. Most of our spring snowstorms are not seen coming that far in advance. 😉

      1. It’s more like a “60/40” confidence level for me 🙂

        Seems the MJO is failing to deliver though, we’re not getting that big phase 1 surge it looked like we might. CPC is all aboard the warm and dry train after 3/20.

        1. I may delay a tad but I’m in their general camp as the overall leaning. I’m just not so sure about consistent warmth. A few more cold air dumps out of Canada into April…

    1. That snow covered area is very much what the small wooded area behind my brother’s back yard looks like. The slope is north-facing and gets limited and indirect sun.

  10. Superstorm 1993 – still the most impressive low pressure system that I have witnessed in all my years of observing and going back through history. It has no rival.

    1. Some of the big ones are easy for me to relate to… December 9 has a history and March 13 as well. Macs and my anniversary and son’s birthday.

      I am repeating. Word of March 1993 reached London. Macs parents were visiting friends and called worried about both their condo in charleston and also us. I have a number of storms that rank up there in my memory. But we look at it from different perspectives. 1993 is definitely one.

  11. The Denver snowstorm must be a meteorologist’s nightmare. Was forecast to start Friday night. Currently light rain showers. Now supposed to snow in a couple of hours. Still looking for 20inches.
    I so admire people like Tk who are willing to be in a profession that can be so difficult AND public.

    1. Anything in that area is a potential nightmare.

      There is a significant misconception, especially among many New Englanders, that New England’s weather is the toughest to forecast in the country. That could not be more incorrect. It’s no picnic, don’t get me wrong, but it’s a piece of cake compared to trying to forecast weather in the mountains, or weather in the high plains of Texas (especially temperatures), or maybe, say, the Black Hills of SD. There are many areas that are technically tougher to forecast than New England, and that’s just IN the USA. Try going outside this country. You’ll find some extraordinarily difficult areas to forecast, some of them in countries that are known to “punish” their forecasters for being wrong.

        1. I could never imagine myself living anywhere else but here, and it would kill me to be away from the ocean, but in a hypothetical situation, the Buffalo area and the Denver area are two places I’d be if I had zero choice but to leave New England.

          1. In Buffalo, wouldn’t timing and exact location of snow squalls drive you nuts? If I understand correctly, one location can get clobbered and few miles away, little or nothing.

            2. That’s what chasing is for. 🙂 I’m also NOT the person who has to get “the heaviest” and “the most” to be happy. It’s all just weather to me.

  13. Waiting for the Fens in Boston to fire up as it does most every spring during extremely dry conditions.

    1. I don’t agree with him on just dismissing anything any more than knowing the magnitude of the effect. It’s going to take a long time before we truly know. If you look back at the known AMO cycles and then match up other things, like East Coast regimes and tropical seasons (long-term trends, not just year to year) there is quite a bit of evidence to SUPPORT the AMO as a significant factor.

  17. I am really getting tempted to put away my shovel and ice melt for the season. I had 1 1/2 bags of ice melt and today I decided to put away the one full bag. With the higher sun angle now, I probably won’t need much anyway.

    1. Never EVER put away your shovel before winter ends, and usually not before March ends, and sometimes not until April ends. But it’s your call. 🙂

      History tells us all we need to know. I remember talk about “winter being over” back in 1997 in mid March. HOW DID THAT WORK OUT FOLKS?! 🙂

      1. that worked out wonderfully as I got to enjoy Winter’s last hurrah and it was a beauty. Didn’t take long for all of that snow
        to disappear. 🙂

        1. That’s the thing about late season biggies. A whole lot in at once, a whole lot out very quickly, and usually without much flooding.

          We run into our worst spring floods after very cold winters with at least average to above average precipitation followed by a wet and warmer period in spring when you are melting snow and adding current rainfall and running it all over frozen ground into the rivers very quickly.

          I’m definitely not dismissing cold shots & a few more winter “threats” even as we get into spring. As soon as I do it anyway, you know exactly what will happen. 😉

  18. Don’t look now but the GFS ensembles like the idea of a colder/wetter March finale. The model plot thickens. 😛

    1. OK TK, you win! I’ll keep my shovel and half bag of ice melt until March 31…and “maybe” the first 7-10 days of April. 🙂

  19. 18 GFS looks interesting for late next week. It would be a good dump of snow up north and rain to snow in SNE. We are planning on heading to northern VT next weekend skiing so would be nice if they got a good refresher. Typically March is the snowiest month of the year up there but this year has certainly been an exception thus far.

  20. Take me here please!

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
    1151 AM MST Sat Mar 13 2021

    …HISTORIC AND CRIPPLING WINTER STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
    ALL OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
    WEEKEND…

    …WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO
    EARLY SUNDAY…TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE
    OVER MUCH OF THE AREA…

    …CONDITIONS UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY…

    WYZ106-107-116-117-141200-
    /O.CON.KCYS.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-210314T0600Z/
    /O.CON.KCYS.BZ.W.0002.210314T0600Z-210315T1200Z/
    Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
    East Platte County-South Laramie Range-
    South Laramie Range Foothills-
    Including the cities of Bordeaux, Wheatland, Guernsey, Buford,
    Pumpkin Vine, Vedauwoo, Whitaker, Federal, and Horse Creek
    1151 AM MST Sat Mar 13 2021

    …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
    EVENING…
    …BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MST THIS EVENING
    TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY…

    * WHAT…Very heavy snow and blowing snow likely. Blizzard
    conditions developing overnight. Total snow accumulations of 20 to 30 inches with local amounts up to 50 inches above 8000 feet elevation. Wind gusts up to 60 MPH.

    * WHERE…South Laramie Range and adjacent foothills including Interstate 80 between Laramie and Cheyenne. Central Laramie Range and eastern Platte County including the city of Wheatland.

    * WHEN…Until 6 AM MDT Monday. Blizzard conditions are most likely late tonight through Sunday afternoon.

    * IMPACTS…Extremely dangerous or impossible travel conditions. Whiteout conditions likely in falling and blowing snow. Strong winds may cause extensive damage to trees and power lines. Power outages are likely. Conditions will be life threatening to those caught unprepared.

  23. Just heard on ch. 4 that strongest winds are likely tomorrow between 2-6. Good to have them when it’s light out but may
    put a kink in folks weekend plans.

    Do you still expect top gusts at around 45 and similar to last night?

  25. Quite a few brush fires on the South Shore today. Large ones in Abington and Middleborough, among others.

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