22 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – March 15 2021”

  1. Philip, I saw your comment re restaurants closing. I am absolutely positive a good number of them are due to covid and restrictions. But I know the media and tend to look a bit deeper. I did find that an average of 60% of restaurants close in first year and 80% in first five years. Did the article you read mention how many new restaurants opened?

    https://www.theinfatuation.com/boston/guides/boston-new-restaurant-openings

    I did this back when it was mentioned how many Boston school students are failing and the increase. Somewhere I have the link and can post if anyone wants it and if I can find it, but what the media didn’t say is this is not an unusual trend for Boston….or many school systems.

    1. No Vicki, the article only mentioned in passing among other things related to Covid, that 40% of restaurants in this state have been forced to close for good. From what I have learned between newspapers and tv news broadcasts, a number of the permanently closed restaurants were real staples in their respective neighborhoods and downtown Boston for many years, if not decades. The owners of these were just financially unable or unwilling to adjust to Covid regulations by the state via takeout, social distancing etc.

      1. I’ll look for the article. Thank you. I am grateful new restaurants are opening. I sure do wish them success. One son in law started a business last May. I know it is a terribly difficult time.

      2. As for Boston students failing, it’s due to remote learning. Many need social interaction with their teachers and classmates. Hopefully the next school year 2021-22 will be back to total in-person learning. That is the ultimate goal, anyway.

  2. “Don’t spike the ball at the 5-yard line until you get into the end zone.”

    -Dr. Anthony Fauci (on opening things up too soon)

  3. Internationally it’s one disaster after another. The one vaccine Europe kind of has a reasonable inventory of – AstraZeneca – is both less effective and considered a possible safety risk (though minimal). So, European countries are suspending vaccinations with AZ. An already awful rollout will get worse. And, looking at the policy pronouncement today it appears several European countries have thrown in the towel as far as any real reopening until summer and perhaps later. It’s going to be a strange closed off world with countries that are doing very well – China, New Zealand, Taiwan – and countries that are improving like the U.S. and U.K. – not wanting to have anything to do with the rest of the world. The strictest countries like Taiwan, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea, will probably have mandatory 14 day hotel quarantines for the foreseeable future, which means a de facto crippling of tourism. But our tourism industry won’t do so well either. Nor the U.K. And Europe’s tourism will be decimated. At this point, I don’t see the world coming out of this pandemic this year. Individual countries like the U.S. will, but many countries around the globe will not, including many in Europe.

    1. Don’t know much about it. I think it’s being overplayed and the countries are being overcautious. Yet, I do understand the concern.

      And yes today’s Covid-19 news outside the U.S., U.K., and Israel is really depressing and distressing.

      1. Thanks. I read a bit and may be overplayed. But then with the speed of development of these, it seems wise.

  4. I guess it appears that this virus will continue throughout the world in one form or another through the year 2022. Hopefully no longer.

    1. It will be endemic no matter what, unless you’re in NZ, Australia, and a handful of other countries. But even there, if they want to have tourists back, it will become endemic. The issue is will the endemic virus be much less lethal to the unvaccinated who it infects (or a small percentage of the vaccinated for that matter, who contract it). I think the answer is yes, in spite of the variants. The problem is for the world as a whole to get to 2022 and beyond without too much further damage. And, the latest AstraZeneca vaccine problem is a real setback, as is the poor rollout in Europe, and the disaster unfolding in Brazil.

      Dr. Deborah Birx alerted us in the U.S. to a problem I hadn’t thought about and that is that our testing has gone down 50% since last month. This can account for the lower numbers of cases. I don’t see that as a problem, so long as test positivity remains low and hospitalizations aren’t increasing (they’re still on a gradual downward trend).

  5. Add Canada to the list of nations with a poor rollout. Did great with mitigation, much better than we did – death rate at least 4 times lower. But now with the new variants around and a poor rollout Canada is clearly not out of the woods. Ontario’s R0 is at 1.41. That’s astoundingly high and indicates a 3rd wave is brewing. https://twitter.com/COVIDSciOntario/status/1371577759403741191

    This could still happen here, but I feel like our vaccination drive has been so much better – numbers don’t lie – that we may be able to thread the needle.

      1. Me, too. Canada has approved 4 vaccines; 1 more than we have. But, they didn’t purchase enough supply. I can’t wrap my head around this. I realize that our governments over the years have been incompetent. But it’s clear that it’s not better internationally. Penny-pinching, or simply under-purchasing, isn’t smart during a pandemic.

  6. Joshua, do you see any potential for international travel this year for the vaccinated? We have a long postponed trip to London on the books. And I’m reading out the various vaccine passports that are being developed which it’s hoped will make quarantines unnecessary…

    1. A great question, Amy. I’m literally in the same boat as I’m planning a trip to London to see my daughter and want to avoid the quarantine if at all possible. The good news is the U.S. is not on the mandatory 10-day hotel quarantine list. Also, the U.K. government plans to issue vaccine passport guidance in April. The bad news is it’s unclear if the U.K. is going to go through with the passport plan. So stay tuned on that.

      U.K. is still in lockdown and won’t allow its citizens to travel internationally until mid to late May. The plan is to reopen fully by late June. I think that’s feasible, given their massively successful vaccination push (even more successful than ours).

      I think that international travel between the U.S. and U.K. (but perhaps not the European continent) will be possible by mid to late June. If there is no vaccine passport then the requirement will be the negative Covid test on both ends of the trip, with a ~3 day quarantine at the place of your choosing in London. A vaccine passport would simplify things, so that’s what I’m hoping for. Right now I’m planning a trip for July.

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