Friday AM Update

128 Comments

3:03AM

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 44-49 before noon then cooling back through the 40s later. Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts around 40 MPH, diminishing by the end of the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with a slight chance of a rain or snow shower. Clear overnight. Low 24-29. Wind NW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sunshine and patchy clouds. High 35-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible after midnight, especially near the coast. Low 22-27. Wind N-NE 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers especially near the coast and especially in the morning. High 33-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy and windy with a few rain or snow showers possible. Low 28. High 41.

TUESDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Low 24. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with snow or rain possible. Low 30. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 38.

128 thoughts on “Friday AM Update”

  1. TK, thanks for update. Looks like Weds is more likely rain than snow. The Euro seems to have a low sitting on top of us on Thursday.

    1. Maybe 2 events to dump a decent amt of snow in the ski areas to the north just in time for school vacation. Perfect !

  3. today sunny and breezy with highs occurring in the morning . then dropping. highs in the upper40s.
    tonight clear lows in the upper20s
    saturday and saturday night clear highs in the mid30s lows in the teens
    sunday. the coldest day we have seen since the begginning of last march will be here. highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark.
    sunday night lows in the 20s
    monday and monday night wind changes highs in the low to mid40s lows in the 20s and low30s
    tuesday increasing clouds chance of a shower highs in the low40s
    tuesday night increasing clouds chance of rain
    wednesday cloudy with a chance of rain possible mix to rain event outside 495 highs in the low40s
    wednesday night cloudy a chance of rain and freezing rain. lows in the mid30s
    thursday sunny highs in the low40s
    we will see our coldest days yet this weekend but the cold will not be able to hold on for our next storm system as it will be a storm that travels to far west. which means we will be on the warm side not the cold. also the chance of the storm on christmas is diminshing as each model run comes in. they are bringing it further and further south.
    there is a chance of a few flurries on the cape and islands this weekend.

    2. He pretty much nailed last winter if I remember correctly. I think he’s one of the better forecasters there.

  8. To be honest as much as I like a good snowstorm, I’m kind of enjoying having everything nice and clean. No salt/sand on the roads/cars…Though it would be nice if we got a nice little coating before Xmas to put everyone in the mood.

  9. I never thought I would be missed. I got a chuckle out of yesterday’s comments.
    Thank all. btw, I wasn’t skating on Jamaica Pond, but rather I packed a picnic lunch
    and my wife and I enjoyed sunning on the beatiful shores and even had a nice swim!

    Seriously, took the day off yesterday and had a zillion errands to run, including finishing up with Christmas shopping.

    NAO looks miserable, at least until many many days out, when it show some hope:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

    I find the 06Z GFS action packed and loaded with promise, But I’ll wait to see the
    12Z run to see if any of it is still there.

    1. NAO just seems like it wants to keep bouncing positive doesn’t it. It sort of looks like a stock chart that just doesn’t want to break below an established line.

  10. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/cmcloop.html this is the cmc model saying somthing for monday at hour 108. then the larger storm being much warmer with rain as it is an inside runner
    the gfs is saying something similar with some activity monday with the main system being in the form of rain but could be a mix of frozen precipitation in the northwest part of the state. also the navy as well

    1. Comparing hour 99 with the 12Z and hour 102 with the 06Z, MUCH slower!!
      Not sure how meaningful that will be, except that possibly MORE cold
      air can seep in here???

      1. Looks to pull out a little slower, 540 line more south, could it be a trend? Lets see how the rest of the run evolves.

  15. Everybody will be in town on Tue for the holiday they said we r expecting to see snow, I said laughing do not count on it

    1. Keep watching. This system tends to get warmer and then go Poof in the night! Lol Doesn’t look like much of anything at all.

      Looking for next system from SW to eject NE.

        1. The system get absorbs by the system farther to the
          North. It’s like the Souther stream system gets sucked up by the Northern Stream system much farther to the North.

  20. Where is everyone? and where is the 12Z Euro??????

    Office Christmas Party this evening. Early dismissal from work today.

    Have a great weekend all.

  21. Midweek storm more rain than anything else UGH meter at a 6 but may come to a 10 as we get closer to the event
    Late next week no need for an UGH just yet and maybe we won’t be dreaming of a white Christmas.
    WeatherWizard gives his thoughts on Melissa’s blog today.

      1. Yes, the first system isn’t all that much to begin with, and the second system races off the coast. Still plenty of time to sort this out.

  24. Checking upstream…..its 34F in Montreal, 36F in Buffalo, 39F in Burlington, VT. I get the idea the temps are going to coast down slower than I thought the first half of the night. That will only help to keep the days low temp milder than avg. Boston is already +13F on its high, as is Worcester. I think Providence and Hartford are very similar.

      1. Yes and now the high clouds are streaming in from the southern system. I think tomorrow will be cold, but it will be because the temps get towards freezing by sunrise and tehn dont rise much all day.

    1. snow down the Cape is just so different. It plasters everything…it just looks so funny, out of place and yet very picturesque.

  26. After seeing some of the 4pm weathercasts and seeing 40F+ for the highs all of next week starting Monday, it sent me back for a closer look at the 12z EURO and now I can see why. By Thursday, the 850 temps look very mild……. I guess chilly tomorrow, actual winter cold Sunday and then its another stretch of days that are either a little above normal or well above normal. I hope to see some ocean effect snow Sat night/Sun morning, because after that, I dont think its going to happen prior to Christmas.

  29. As I said earlier mid week storm burst of wintry precipitation for the interior then rain. Looks like an all rain event for areas at or near the coast. Watching the possibility of something later in the week.

  30. Hey Philip…. The UGH meter is a scale of 1-10 with 10 being the worst. Since people love to post the different model runs here when I see something that looks like a rain event it gets an UGH rating since as you know I love snow. When it is several days out I don’t give a high number. The mid week storm next week I started with a 5 now I am up to a 6 and unless a colder solution comes into play the number is going to go up as we get closer.

  31. 1-3 inches of snow on the cape possible 4 and 5 inches .
    drops off quickly once you reach the canal
    flurries and snow showers.across the eastern half of mass. tomorrow night.
    wednesday i still think it will be more rain than snow. but it could start out as snow and the rain snow line could reach as far south as the cape and then retreat up into southern new hampshire and vt.

  32. 18z gfs for Xmas looks decent temp wise but storm scoots out with not much QPF.
    I think mid week storm for sure starts as snow but a flip to rain is gonna happen pretty quickly.

  33. 36F at Burlington, VT at 7pm. Wow, back to back 10F positive anomolies for Thurs and Fri. Respectfully, I submit any frozen precip is well north next midweek.

  35. Pete Bouchard’s evening blog mentions the regime change coming after the new year and I absolutely agree with him. It definitely looks like a snowless December, except possibly on the Cape of all places. Ocean effect snows are somewhat difficult to predict so we will see what happens tomorrow and tomorrow night.

    Hey Tom…Harvey had one computer model with Marshfield (of all places) in the sweet spot! Let us know what happens there…Lol. 🙂

  37. Rainshine. We went to Fatima tonight. I think there are more lights this year too. My four yr old grandson is really into the nativity story so told anyone who’d listen about it

    This morning he showed me the moon that was still out. Then told me it is the waxing gibbus. I think it may be waning but if he knows that much I’m not correcting him and I may be wrong

    2. Charlie…I really doubt we will have a white New Year’s either. I am still focusing on mid-January for the true regime change.

      Yes, this pattern will break down…but its going to take still more time to do so.

    2. Not really all that unusual when you’re in a mild pattern.

      Also, white Christmas for at least parts of the region is not ruled out.

      If I could be that certain about the weather on that consistent a basis that far in advance then I’d be one rich person. 🙂

  40. Within reason, Friday December 16th should average +9 to +10F above normal and solidify the 4 major report stations at near + 6F or +7F for December through the 16th. With the exception of the next 2 days, the next 5 days after that should be above normal again. At face value, the long range GFS offers a chance at some abnormal warmth towards the new year. If its not going to snow, I am all for setting some warm record anomolies. I really think there’s a chance to do that.

    1. I’m really curious for tomorrow night. I live in the eastern third of Marshfield, have ocean directly to my north, and am hoping for a little bit of ocean effect activity.

    2. Hi Hadi.

      For sure. But, then it becomes a mathematical numbers game. Already, one half of the month is more than 6F above normal and even Barry Burbank is predicting 50F next Thursday when the avg high is around 39F or 40F. Just too many Dec. days with double digit positive anomolies and I have no reason to believe the last week of December to be any different, just based on persistence.

      1. It all adds up to a snowless December unfortunately. We have actually had good snows the past few Decembers so I guess we are due.

  43. I believe in the next 2-3+ weeks we will experience temps all over the place, sometimes just above normal, just below and plain ol’ normal…i.e. roller coaster.

    Any storms will bring warm air aplenty in advance so no chance of even mixed (snow to rain). We will need the regime change to even get those snow/ice/rain type storms let alone straight snows.

    1. I think I agree with you Philip. This continues through January, and then finally in February, after 6 months of +NAO, the atmosphere will feature more episodes of -NAO, and Feb-early April will be cold and somewhat snowy.

  44. We have been spoiled these past few Decembers. I don’t think the rest of the winter will disappoint with some stratospheric warming approaching northwestern Canada, which may lead to blocking in January. Also the MJO is headed in the right direction.

  45. How can sumize that in late Jan the NAO will turn negative? It could happen in week or not even until spring for all we know?

    Tom I do not disagree that we will end up above average for December, I just think historically predicting 50 or plus in the long range in the winter months can be dicey at best.

    1. Very true Hadi. Just a guess on my part more than anything regarding the NAO. I just figure its been positive since mid August and am assigning a 6 month period for it to stay so, and am guessing it will feature more negative phases after 6 months, which would be sometime in Feb. But you are correvt Hadi, nothing scientific about that prediction, merely a hunch or guess. 🙂

  46. Also, a lot of it is in the timing. Take worcester for example. Its 34F at 10pm. Its avg low is 24F, I think. Someone wakes up tomorrow morning and sees Worcester is 25F at 7am, and thinks…oh, its seasonably cold. Problem is, at midnight, it was still 31F, and thus for Friday, it was actually 7F above normal. Thats been happening some lately where, while cooler air has been advecting in during the day, a pretty above normal high temp after midnight has occurred and the subsequent low twmp hasnt been able to offset it. I’ll bet another inside runner causes this to happen yet again this month.

  47. Very true but I have a hard time agreeing that we are sooo above average due to that fact. Your analysis is spot in though.

  48. I’m with Tom. If we can’t have a major storm for my first time at the beach in winter, I’ll take above Normal records. Sitting on the beach around a fire sounds fun too.

    Where is John today? Hmm

    1. 🙂 At least John will be able to spend Christmas with his family…he was so worried that he would be called in to work removing snow.

      1. I hope so Philip. We have one child and he is seven. I would be sad to not spend the day with him. Any time after xmas fine. Just not than.

  49. Hi Vicki.

    Area has quieted down a lot. When I head off to school at 6:30am, Rte 139 is nice and quiet. Great time of the year to come down and spend several weeks. If, during the month of January you have a free day, I will gladly meet you and John in the Humarock area if the time works out.

    1. Here I am. Had to go to a wake in cambridge. Just saw 25 saying he thinks Boston will see dusting tomorrow night. Can’t happen yet big plans for the night, dusting would for sure be a call in. Tom help what do you see, or anybody.

      1. Hi John.

        Well, if it snows tomorrow night, I think a large influence is the wind direction. I dont think the wind direction causes the snow showers / squalls to greatly affect Boston. Hopefully, so you can avoid being called in, it avoids the Boston area. Think it will.

  50. It will be interesting where December ends up temperature wise…somewhere in the “Top-10” warmest at the very least?

    1. I definitely think so ! I’d guess only way it doesn’t happen is if there’s a day or two, where the high is around 10F or 25F below normal to offset the anomoly. there’s nothing on the long range models that makes me think thats going to happen.

  51. Charlie and Philip, it is not that abnormal to have a 40 degree reading at 9pm at night on December 16th.

  52. I think if the wind has a bit more of a easterly component we would see snow in Boston. Nothing catastrophic, maybe a dusting.

  53. Usually, being in far eastern Marshfield is not helpful, to say the least, for snow. However, I think tonight, it may be a rare bonus. We’ll see.

    1. Tom, I am about 10 miles east of the Coast. It will be interesting to see the differences in snow, if any.

  57. Thanks for the link. To me its the second storm system with the better shot of wintry precipitation. The first one to me will be a brief shot of wintry precipitation for the interior before it turns to rain .

  58. Just read the discussion from the NWS and let me take back what I said about the second storm system. That looks more rain than anything wintry but may start out as wintry mix.

  60. Here comes the cold……At 9am, Mt Washington down to 3F…Burlington, VT 22F….Bangor, ME at 28F………Portland, ME at 32F…..Burlington, Bangor and Portland all have surface winds out of the north and Bangor and Portland are both reporting snow flurries.

    1. checking the radar and a Portland, ME webcam….a pretty good snowshower went through there, whitening the ground. I kind of wonder if that band of snowshowers along the Maine Coast starts to move down the coastline and thats what hits southeast Mass or if it will be new snowshowers generated by cold air over relatively warm ocean water. Maybe a bit of both.

  61. From Taunton NWS…..thru Dec. 16th……Logan’s temp anomoly is at +6.5F (bumped up nearly 1F by the last 2 days of +11F and +14F warmth). 8 out of 16 days have had highs of 50F or higher. 11 out of 16 low temps have been 35F or higher. The avg daily high through the first 16 days is 50.6F …..

  62. This could be a top 5 warmest December. Still no signs of a cold and snowy pattern for the rest of 2011. Maybe that will happen when the calendar flips to 2012.

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