Tuesday March 16 2021 Forecast (7:16AM)

65 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 16-20)

We are now at the half-way point of the month of March and in the home stretch of winter, as the Vernal Equinox will occur at 5:37 a.m. Saturday. Now, we all know that just because “spring” arrives on the calendar that we may still see some cold weather and even some frozen precipitation, depending on our pattern, well into springtime, but before that we must determine, among the rest of the sensible weather, if we will see some frozen stuff before we get to Saturday, and the answer is “probably”. We’ll get back to that in a moment. First, we have seen the core of some very cold air pass by and now, while we have a cold but fairly calm start this morning, while today will be a chilly day compared to normal for mid March, the lack of wind will make it feel less so, but we won’t have bright sunshine all day as high clouds are already moving in as of sunrise in advance of low pressure moving in this direction. However, this low is running up against high pressure that is in no hurry to move and is also like a mountain of dry air. This will essentially obliterate the storm system as it comes in, with just some cloudiness, and the remote risk of a brief period of light snow in the CT/RI (maybe far southern MA) areas sometime tonight. High pressure retreats a little on Wednesday but is close enough so that St. Patrick’s Day here in southeastern New England will be a decent day – some clouds, some sun, and a bit milder than today. The modest warm-up continues into Thursday as high pressure slips off to the southeast, but another strong and cold high pressure area will ridge across eastern Canada to our north and then start pressing southward. At the same time, our next storm system will be approaching from the southwest, with its elongating center certain to pass south of our region Thursday night into Friday. This system will have more moisture with it and it is much more likely to bring us a period of precipitation from late-day or evening Thursday through the early to mid morning hours of Friday, while at the same time our mild air gives way to much colder air from north to south. This likely means we’ll be dealing with a rain changing to snow situation. But the question is, how fast does the cold arrive versus the tapering off and departing of the precipitation? While it’s still a few days away and not a situation that a confident solid call can be made yet, my current idea is that we’ll see the cold air arrive soon enough so that most of the region gets a period of snow, and that the snow may accumulate for a while before it ends. But we know that at this time of year it would take pretty heavy snow, which we probably won’t have, to accumulate much, and that it will also be fighting daylight not long after it changes, so that there would be a relatively short window of time for accumulation. Fine-tuning to come… And once we get to later Friday, it’s dry and briefly colder, with a breezy and seasonably cool but fair weather day for the first of spring Saturday, as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes with low pressure off to our east.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief light snow possible mainly south of I-90. Lows 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 32-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouding up. Chance of rain late. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, changing to snow from north to south. Lows 25-32. Wind variable becoming NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snow tapering to snow showers morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 21-25)

High pressure is expected to move overhead then off to the southeast with dry weather and a moderating temperature trend, often cooler coastal areas during the days, March 21-23. A disturbance from the west should bring a now fairly rare chance of rainfall before it dries out and turns colder at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 26-30)

Colder start to the period, then moderating temperatures toward month’s end. Possibly some unsettled weather during the temperature transition, though the overall pattern looks fairly dry.

65 thoughts on “Tuesday March 16 2021 Forecast (7:16AM)”

  1. Thanks TK!

    According to JR last night, regardless of snow amounts, roads will likely be just WET.

    1. That will probably be the case due to the lack of intensity. But this may not apply to small roads & driveways / walkways. We’ll have to see on that. The majority of our snowfall may occur before sunrise.

    2. that all depends upon timining and intensity.. If it snows hard enough overnight, trust me roads will become snow covered. Sure a lighter snow would mean just wet pavements. It cracks me up when mets say roads will just be wet. Just NOT necessarily so.

      1. Pavement temps will be pretty high leading to that event.

        We’ll need intensity and darkness. We may get the latter, but the former remains the question.

          1. I think another QB is in the works . What about having JB back & cam & him battle it out for the starting job .

  9. Thanks TK.

    12z NAM is quite robust for overnight Thursday with 5-8″ Pike north.

    Surface:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2021031612&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2021031612&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    IF the NAM were correct in this depiction, this would have no problem accumulating given the overnight timeframe and precip intensity. Of course, that is probably overdone.

  10. Well now, the NAM is quite robust for Overnight Thursday into
    Friday.

    Kuchera Snow

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021031612/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    10:1 snow (just to give and idea of how robust it expects the snow to be)

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021031612/084/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

    Surface

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021031612/066/ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png

    The NAM expects a period of fairly Heavy snow during
    the wee hours of Friday. Based on the NAM (and who says it will verify), this would cause the roads to be covered without a doubt!

  14. NAM distribution of snowfall on that map makes little sense. However snowfall seems quite possible. Evening and overnight timing works well for accumulation potential. It’s should be cooling rapidly. But the more cold air that drains in, also could mean a further south scenario which lessens the precipitation intensity. Stay away from the 10:1 and Kuchera and look to positive change / snow on the ground maps.

    Whatever falls will be gone in 1-3 days.

  17. From Ryan Hanrahan
    A few flurries tonight but Friday morning’s system looks more problematic with rain changing to snow and rapidly dropping temperatures.

  18. Twitter chat between Ryan Hanrahan and Andrew when it comes to snow sticking on paved surfaces

    Andrew: Still have a hard time thinking anything happens to roads & sidewalks
    Ryan: Why is that?
    Andrew: Time of year, the sun angle,the “warm” day before that with the rain, all of that
    Ryan: Shouldn’t matter much. Looks like a good burst is possible before daybreak and there’s a real impressive cold shot coming in. Could be real icy if this thing actually develops as modeled now.

  19. Thanks TK.

    The Thursday night-Friday system definitely reminds me, at least in some ways, of the October event. There’s only a pretty narrow range of outcomes that could yield good snow for SNE, but right now the guidance says we’re going to hit that range. Could end up being a solid moderate event but confidence is always lower this time of year.

    1. I would lean more towards the NAM/CMC though it keeping the axis of heavier snow further north. Would favor north of the Pike for the best chance of 3″+ at this point.

  20. Also, be prepared for large last minute shifts in guidance as this gets closer. There will be widespread convection over the Southeast over the next 48-60 hours including the likelihood of some nasty severe weather. That can have major and often poorly predictable downstream implications for us.

    1. Oh this is such a great pick up. The latent heat transfer and simultaneous feedback modeling echoes cause an enormous amount short term model swings and divergence.

      I think we get snow. Impact is always less than actual accumulation, but snow lovers could rejoice for a few hours.

      1. No big deal for Boston & still saying no more plowable snow this winter from Boston / south .

          1. Time will tell . I would not go all in right now just because Some models show a decent hit .

  21. I remember in December 2019 a week before Christmas the models were showing several inches of snow and we ended up with a mix and rain. This was due to a severe weather outbreak happening in the south sending warm air up our way.

  22. Ch. 7 already has a snowfall map of a widespread 2-4 inches for SNE.

    Harvey has no map as of yet.

    1. Nice! I’m ready for the New England fan base to totally overreact to something that pretty much means nothing. 😉

  24. Well I’ve been a red sox fan all my life…… After that bit of news either a Yankees or Tampa bay fan. Not a fan of Lebron

  25. Thank you, TK.

    Spoke to my daughter in London today. Among many things, we talked about the weather. I told her about the usual March volatility. She had to explain to her English boyfriend how temps can and often do yo-yo between 22C (late last week during the day) and -9C (at night in recent nights), with snow coming later this week after a day in which the temps reach 12C. He didn’t fully believe her (or me). Nor would I if I came from England. It just doesn’t happen there. The North American continent is home to lots of oscillations, especially this time of year.

    1. I am wondering if this is a repeat of what happened the week before Christmas in 2019. An outbreak of severe weather in the south and models forecasting several inches of snow only to have the models change 24 hours prior to a mix and rain event.

  30. Thanks, TK…It’s only taken me about 13 hours to check in. Almost time for bed!

    I am not sure anyone saw this or mentioned it, but there were reports from Colorado that the snow from last weekend’s blizzard had dust in it that was picked up from Mexican beaches. I think I got that report correct. Pretty amazing if true.

    JJ; To answer your question from last night, I am going with Gonzaga. To me, it’s hard not to. My Final Four are the top seeds from each region.
    I am thinking that the lack of sellout crowds cheering on the underdogs this March will limit the number of first round upsets. I could be all wrong with my reasoning, but that’s what I went with.

    We’ll see. That’s fun of it! Let the games begin!!!

    I am pooped tonight, Lots of remote Spanish throughout these two days. We may go back fulltime, in person at the end of April. We move into our brand new building on April 27. It would make sense that we all go back, in-person, every day when we start classes in our new building.

    Good night, folks!

    1. Captain I hope you get rest soon. I know it has been a difficult year and you are all heroes.

      I saw that on the layer of dust and meant to ask then of course was side tracked.

  31. Question. Not on weather. Did someone on here say they were pretty dizzy a few hours after vaccine?

    1. I don’t recall specifically if someone here said it, but I did know a couple people who reported that. It lasted a while then faded.

      1. Thanks TK. My older daughter had her vaccine this am. She has two comorbidities. She had that happen and rapid heartbeat (which she can have with even coffee) a bit ago. I thought I’d heard of it but wasn’t sure. Much appreciated

          1. Thank you, TK. She said she did laundry and something else and it helped her feel better. 🙂 🙂 Her husband is getting his tomorrow. Their 12 year old said she can take care of them if they don’t feel well at the same time since it is good practice. We are all a bit afraid to ask what it is practice for

      1. Thanks, Dave. It may be your comment I recall. She had pfeizer. But she reacts strongly to everything

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