Question for Joshua and / or our other covid variant wizards here. If this brand new, more lethal variant – or any future variant for that matter – might render our vaccines impotent why would that change if enough of us are vaccinated in time/before it arrives statesidd? I mean – if any variant exists in any global
community it will eventually come here, right? And if vaccines don’t work I don’t follow the race theory.
The vaccines work against B117, which is the variant that is becoming dominant here and has become dominant in Europe. Vaccines are a little bit less effective against B117, but still in the 80-90% range, which is still really good.
The vaccine efficacy diminishes against the B1351, or South Africa variant, but the data suggest reasonable effectiveness of between 65 and 85% (though the AstraZeneca vaccine – not approved here – is much less effective). And, vaccine efficacy diminishes further against the P1, Brazilian variant. Hard to pinpoint effectiveness, but my guess is that it’s around 60-65%.
Note, we generally consider a flu shot to be reasonably effective if it’s >55%. So, all vaccines that have been approved here are reasonably effective against all variants. If everyone vaccinates, or at least 70%, we’ll establish herd immunity with protective rings. Some will still get sick and some will die, but the numbers won’t be large and if we’ve vaccinated as many at-risk people as possible an even smaller percentage (than now) of those who get sick (mostly people without risk factors) will come down with severe disease or die.
So incredibly helpful and comforting Joshua! I was worried the P1 was rendering the vaccines impotent – but it sounds like I misunderstood. Thank god,
There’s a pitched battle going on in the U.S. between the B117 and vaccinations. A tug of war, if you will. Right now the two countervailing forces are sort of in an equilibrium, a standoff. The other variants are coming into play as well, reinforcements for the coronavirus army. But at the same time more and more people are getting vaccinated.
You can now see the results of mass vaccination in Israel and the UK. There are still cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. But all three indicators have plummeted. Vaccines are winning the battle; using overwhelming force (higher transmissibility), targeted airstrikes (aiming at at-risk groups of all ages with higher lethality), and some deception (new variants that in some instances evade vaccines or cause reinfections) . In Europe the B117 variant, in particular, is winning right now because a much smaller proportion of the population has been vaccinated. I’d say Europe is at least 4 and possibly 6 weeks from even getting to the point of vaccinations that we’ve achieved today. So, Europe’s a mess. It’s got a long way to go.
Strike part of the last paragraph. Sorry about that. After it says vaccines are winning the battle, referring to the UK and Israel, I describe the situation in Europe.
In Europe, the novel coronavirus is using overwhelming force (B117 with higher transmissibility), targeted airstrikes (aiming at at-risk groups of all ages with higher lethality), and some deception (new variants that in some instances evade vaccines or cause reinfections) . In Europe the B117 variant, in particular, is winning right now because a much smaller proportion of the population has been vaccinated. I’d say Europe is at least 4 and possibly 6 weeks from even getting to the point of vaccinations that we’ve achieved today. So, Europe’s a mess. It’s got a long way to go.
Joshua, any chance Covid will be totally eradicated some day, or are humans stuck with this virus in one form or the other for the remainder of our existence as a species on this planet?
Why do I have a bad feeling that masks will still be the order of the day one year from now? And that 100% capacity in venues will still not be achieved? I really wonder.
I would also like to add to my first paragraph…*much like the common flu is today?
Coronavirus won’t be eradicated. Other than smallpox I can’t think of an airborne transmitted disease that’s been eradicated. So, I believe the novel coronavirus will become endemic. Hopefully, vaccination and continued mitigation will suppress the virus levels to reduce the chances of mutations that elude vaccines.
I don’t think masks or strict mitigation will be commonplace in the U.S. in 2022. Perhaps early in the year, as there may be a brief uptick in winter, as there would be with any respiratory disease. But, I think that a year from now most mask-wearing and most capacity limits will be a memory. I do think international travel restrictions will still be in place. Most of Asia wants to keep out coronavirus at all costs (and this includes an accepted loss of tourism revenue), and so mandatory hotel quarantines will continue to be enforced for the foreseeable future. This also applies to Oceania nations. I believe corridors or bubbles in which international travel can take place more or less freely – with vaccine proof – will exist. For example, between the U.S. and Israel, and also the U.K. I’m unsure about parts of Europe. They may still maintain travel restrictions, though not as draconian as mandatory hotel quarantines.
Thanks Joshua. Any thoughts as to whether vaccinations will be on an annual basis like the common flu or “once in a lifetime”?
Not really expecting a solid answer as I bet Dr. Fauci has no idea as of yet. Just your early prospective more than anything else.
For high-risk groups, yes. But not population-wide.
they won’t know if people will need to be re-vaccinated until early 2022. Of course there are talks of people getting a third dose of the Pfizier kind of like a booster 6 months after the 2nd dose. Not sure if those talks have continued or not.
Matt I know a woman in nursing ….not sure of level,…had her vaccines early. She was going to look into a JJ in a few months for another vaccine because of variants
I’m not going to fault the folks involved. We are past that. We know this happens. We know parents send their kids to school with covid or with an Immediate family member who has covid.
This is one more hit yourself on the head reason that all of the cdc studies and physician sign offs that school is safe is just blowing air into the wind. This is a large group which is the exception. The exposed or positive kids are NOT the exception.
Some interesting non weather tweets in a discussion with Eric.
https://twitter.com/franksanfilipp2/status/1373596826893434880?s=21
Question for Joshua and / or our other covid variant wizards here. If this brand new, more lethal variant – or any future variant for that matter – might render our vaccines impotent why would that change if enough of us are vaccinated in time/before it arrives statesidd? I mean – if any variant exists in any global
community it will eventually come here, right? And if vaccines don’t work I don’t follow the race theory.
The vaccines work against B117, which is the variant that is becoming dominant here and has become dominant in Europe. Vaccines are a little bit less effective against B117, but still in the 80-90% range, which is still really good.
The vaccine efficacy diminishes against the B1351, or South Africa variant, but the data suggest reasonable effectiveness of between 65 and 85% (though the AstraZeneca vaccine – not approved here – is much less effective). And, vaccine efficacy diminishes further against the P1, Brazilian variant. Hard to pinpoint effectiveness, but my guess is that it’s around 60-65%.
Note, we generally consider a flu shot to be reasonably effective if it’s >55%. So, all vaccines that have been approved here are reasonably effective against all variants. If everyone vaccinates, or at least 70%, we’ll establish herd immunity with protective rings. Some will still get sick and some will die, but the numbers won’t be large and if we’ve vaccinated as many at-risk people as possible an even smaller percentage (than now) of those who get sick (mostly people without risk factors) will come down with severe disease or die.
So incredibly helpful and comforting Joshua! I was worried the P1 was rendering the vaccines impotent – but it sounds like I misunderstood. Thank god,
There’s a pitched battle going on in the U.S. between the B117 and vaccinations. A tug of war, if you will. Right now the two countervailing forces are sort of in an equilibrium, a standoff. The other variants are coming into play as well, reinforcements for the coronavirus army. But at the same time more and more people are getting vaccinated.
You can now see the results of mass vaccination in Israel and the UK. There are still cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. But all three indicators have plummeted. Vaccines are winning the battle; using overwhelming force (higher transmissibility), targeted airstrikes (aiming at at-risk groups of all ages with higher lethality), and some deception (new variants that in some instances evade vaccines or cause reinfections) . In Europe the B117 variant, in particular, is winning right now because a much smaller proportion of the population has been vaccinated. I’d say Europe is at least 4 and possibly 6 weeks from even getting to the point of vaccinations that we’ve achieved today. So, Europe’s a mess. It’s got a long way to go.
Strike part of the last paragraph. Sorry about that. After it says vaccines are winning the battle, referring to the UK and Israel, I describe the situation in Europe.
In Europe, the novel coronavirus is using overwhelming force (B117 with higher transmissibility), targeted airstrikes (aiming at at-risk groups of all ages with higher lethality), and some deception (new variants that in some instances evade vaccines or cause reinfections) . In Europe the B117 variant, in particular, is winning right now because a much smaller proportion of the population has been vaccinated. I’d say Europe is at least 4 and possibly 6 weeks from even getting to the point of vaccinations that we’ve achieved today. So, Europe’s a mess. It’s got a long way to go.
Joshua, any chance Covid will be totally eradicated some day, or are humans stuck with this virus in one form or the other for the remainder of our existence as a species on this planet?
Why do I have a bad feeling that masks will still be the order of the day one year from now? And that 100% capacity in venues will still not be achieved? I really wonder.
I would also like to add to my first paragraph…*much like the common flu is today?
Coronavirus won’t be eradicated. Other than smallpox I can’t think of an airborne transmitted disease that’s been eradicated. So, I believe the novel coronavirus will become endemic. Hopefully, vaccination and continued mitigation will suppress the virus levels to reduce the chances of mutations that elude vaccines.
I don’t think masks or strict mitigation will be commonplace in the U.S. in 2022. Perhaps early in the year, as there may be a brief uptick in winter, as there would be with any respiratory disease. But, I think that a year from now most mask-wearing and most capacity limits will be a memory. I do think international travel restrictions will still be in place. Most of Asia wants to keep out coronavirus at all costs (and this includes an accepted loss of tourism revenue), and so mandatory hotel quarantines will continue to be enforced for the foreseeable future. This also applies to Oceania nations. I believe corridors or bubbles in which international travel can take place more or less freely – with vaccine proof – will exist. For example, between the U.S. and Israel, and also the U.K. I’m unsure about parts of Europe. They may still maintain travel restrictions, though not as draconian as mandatory hotel quarantines.
Thanks Joshua. Any thoughts as to whether vaccinations will be on an annual basis like the common flu or “once in a lifetime”?
Not really expecting a solid answer as I bet Dr. Fauci has no idea as of yet. Just your early prospective more than anything else.
For high-risk groups, yes. But not population-wide.
they won’t know if people will need to be re-vaccinated until early 2022. Of course there are talks of people getting a third dose of the Pfizier kind of like a booster 6 months after the 2nd dose. Not sure if those talks have continued or not.
Matt I know a woman in nursing ….not sure of level,…had her vaccines early. She was going to look into a JJ in a few months for another vaccine because of variants
I’m not going to fault the folks involved. We are past that. We know this happens. We know parents send their kids to school with covid or with an Immediate family member who has covid.
This is one more hit yourself on the head reason that all of the cdc studies and physician sign offs that school is safe is just blowing air into the wind. This is a large group which is the exception. The exposed or positive kids are NOT the exception.
https://www.wcvb.com/article/swampscott-high-school-covid-19-outbreak-after-house-party/35895486?fbclid=IwAR3SaqMijeAexxvX6fXxq2APU-I5IIRMZ1ftoNW_Dtv85_bLHsL-0WQYi48
C-19 for 3-22 is ready.