Monday March 22 2021 Forecast (7:34AM)

72 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 22-26)

High pressure sits atop New England early this week, continuing the very nice weather stretch that we started over the weekend. Once again the coastal areas will be cooler each day due to a sea breeze developing, and each night the inland lower elevations will be colder due to radiational cooling. High pressure partially gives way Wednesday as low pressure passes south of the region and a warm front approaches from the southwest ahead of another low pressure area heading for the Great Lakes, resulting in a general increase in cloudiness and a southeasterly air flow which will keep the region more uniform in temperature, the result being a cooler day for inland areas that won’t be able to warm as efficiently as the next 2 days. The warm front may bring a touch of light rain Wednesday evening as it passes and opens the door to a warmer southwesterly air flow for Thursday. Although this air flow will result in cooler conditions for the South Coast, especially Cape Cod and the Islands. The low heading into the Great Lakes will be passing north of our area Thursday night and Friday, dragging a cold front through when we will see our best chance for rain shower activity. We need rain as we have had a very dry March so far. However, this does not look like it will be a very significant rain producer. What it will do is introduce a cooler air mass later Friday – with the temperatures that day highly dependent on the timing of the cold front. The air behind it will probably be cold enough to allow a mix or snow should any precipitation linger long enough, but at the moment this is not very likely to occur – more of a remote possibility.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 50-57 coast, 58-65 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-40. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 50-57 coast, 58-65 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 36-43. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 49-56, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 41-48. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 Islands / Cape Cod, 56-63 remainder of South Coast, 64-71 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 57-64, may fall quickly late-day / evening. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW by late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 27-31)

Early call on the last weekend of March (27-28) looks dry/cool Saturday, still on the cool side but watching for the arrival of low pressure from the southwest Sunday. As this system moves through into March 29 we’ll have to watch closely as cold air will be nearby so there is a slight chance we’ll be dealing with a rain/snow line somewhere, but leaning toward a rain event for now. Rain or snow, any precipitation we can get is needed. Dry/chilly ending to March (30-31).

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 1-5)

The trend in the early days of April is for a warm-up that may not really take hold until later in the period as we’ll be near the border of Canadian cold while US Southeast warmth tries to push in. It may be unsettled during the transition.

72 thoughts on “Monday March 22 2021 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Patches of fog scattered around Marshfield. Some areas seem to be burning off and some seems to be forming in areas that were perfectly clear a few minutes earlier.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Another large diurnal swing yesterday at my house. 29 to 65, a swing of 36 degrees!

  5. Thank you, TK.

    March this year has been behaving like October (diurnal swings, blue, cloudless skies). It’s been the sunniest, driest March I have ever experienced by a wide margin.

    Group of Icelanders got very close to the outpouring lava from a volcano that erupted two days ago. By the way, the gray skies you see in the video is what Iceland looks like practically every day of the year (it’s basically a place where it’s in the 40s year-round). It’s unheard of in Iceland to have days (many this month in SNE) without clouds or barely any.

    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1373958883711066112

    5. Thanks Joshua. Based on your description, I don’t believe I would want to even visit Iceland, let alone live there. Stuck in one temperature (40s no less) and little sunshine year round. Not to mention active volcanoes all around. No thanks!

  7. Thank you, TK. Your March 27-28 summary made me think of 1984. I often mention the 1984 March 13/14 event but didn’t realize it was significant….past birth of my son that is 😉 Clearly, later that same month that significant storm was overshadowed. We were without power for four days. The Halloween storm years later brought back memories of listening to tree branches snap and power lines arcing.

    https://www.nytimes.com/1984/03/15/us/most-new-england-states-reeling-from-surprise-march-snowstorm.html

    1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Near the end of the article, it says it rained an inch and a half in Boston, while Concord, NH got 15 inches of snow.

      Another storm Boston missed out. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      2. Yes. There were about 10 inches in framingham. Neighbors cleared the driveway when Mac brought Kim to meet her new baby brother at hospital.

          1. I would have thanked you for your input in the first sentence But ya see the second sentence just was not needed. Do you know why?

            1. Do you think I care?

              My entire post was in reply to Tom saying that it was “Another storm Boston missed out.” They didn’t, which is what I said.

                1. You’re right, it was the wrong storm. The March 13th one, they only got 6.7″. Either way, my point still stands, they did not miss out.

                2. I know I am right. And if I am wrong, I will always say so without a caveat. Now please say “I misread Vicki’s post and thought she was referring to the storm later in March of 1984 and apologize.” Also, let’s try this….”in the future I will just state a number …since we all know reports can be different…and let it go there so as not to insult anyone.”

                  Sleep well and we can practice more tomorrow 🙂 🙂 😉 😉

              3. Sak, people have different criteria on what it means to “miss out on a storm” Missed out is an opinion. So you might think they didn’t miss out but others might 😉

  9. The 00z EURO had some fun at projected hr 192 with quite the comma head and associated bombing surface low, featuring a few hour period of heavy wrap around snows in eastern New England.

      1. Thanks JpDave !

        Yeah, worth a smile anyway.

        However, the many different looks of this time period the last few days do have some constants ….. the idea of a deepening trof in the east somewhere and some cold air dropping down out of Canada. How that all plays out is something to follow.

        1. Yesterday TK did mention the ever so remote possibility of snow sometime in the next 8 days. I guess that is it. You never know. 😉

  11. Wasn’t there a March 29, 1984 event that had heavy snow in Boston? If I recall, it was “blizzard-like” but technically wasn’t an actual blizzard.

    And like most spring snows, it wasn’t forecasted in advance if I recall.

    1. Yep. I mentioned it above. But was not as specific as I could have been. It was a major event due to heavy snow on trees that had sap starting to run

  13. Snow can happen in late March, April, and even May. Probably won’t this year. But, never say never.

    Philip, I certainly couldn’t live in Iceland for longer than a few weeks. It’s the most dismal climate in the world, I think. Pair that with a lunar landscape with very few trees, and it does feel strange. Yet, it’s a fascinating country. Beautiful capital, Reykjavik, and very interesting landscape.

    True story regarding my regular Icelandair flights back in the 2000s. Pretty much every time I’d land in Keflavik (airport west of Reykjavik) the co-pilot would come on the PA 20 minutes before landing and say something like: “the weather in Keflavik is good, 46 degrees Fahrenheit, cloudy skies, light rain, wind southwest at 23 miles per hour, gusting to 39 miles per hour.” Summer, spring, fall, and winter, the differences in temperature, cloudiness, precipitation intensity, and wind, were minimal. In summer it was often in the upper 40s/low 50s (in winter, upper 30s/low 40s) upon departing Iceland, and so when the co-pilot described the weather in Boston, prior to landing, you’d hear audible gasps (of delight and trepidation) throughout the aircraft from the Icelanders: “the weather in Boston, 93 degrees Fahrenheit (34 degrees Celsius), hazy skies, winds light out of the southwest at 12 miles per hour.”

        1. No, the point is that we get several of these every single spring, and they don’t have anything whatsoever to do with how active the tropics will be. They have everything to do with the fact that it is Spring and this is a common occurrence.

          1. yes its a cutoff low, but with your last statement, there are people that directly work with tropical activity, That have PhD’s and Masters degree that says otherwise. I personally have seen, talked and worked with some of these people So I am going to trust them over someone that seems to just be a three letter name on a blog that like to think they are the smartest person on it.

            2. I never claimed to be the smartest person here. However, when something I know is incorrect, I will correct it. And considering that TK said almost the exact same thing that I did (nearly word-for-word), you’re telling us that two meteorologists with 30+ years of experience don’t know how to identify a common Spring weather pattern, because we don’t have PhDs or Masters degrees.

              1. Oh come on you act as if you know everything My statement was not incorrect. You constantly go after certain people on this blog and it gets tiring. I never said it wasn’t a common spring time weather event and that it wasn’t a cut off low. I never said it was tropical. Nothing I said was wrong and I made my statements through talking with people I actually know. If this type of pattern continues it can lead to these small subtropical systems forming off the SE coast. I never said that TK or you could not identify a common weather pattern don’t put words into my comments to bend it to something its not saying. What I was stating was that I was basing my information on what I have heard from fellow scientist with Masters and PhDs. I don’t know if you have those or not SAK honestly doesn’t matter. I was stating that I been talking to credible people while also saying I have almost no interactions with you and that I trust people I interact with in person or even facebook like I do with TK constantly. Maybe you will think before you type then again you haven’t learned since you have come onto the blog. have a good night. TK was talking about a model run 5 days out and someone that said it will be a sign of whats to come (linking it) I said it COULD. in my comment here on the blog. In my twitter post I said “An area of low pressure off the east coast is showing some tropical characteristics but it is not tropical, water is to cool. Looking big picture, this is one of the areas that I believe has an increase risk for tropical activity this season.” No where in there did I say that this was linked. So please when you see a post of mine on twitter take it at face value. Have a good night sir.

                2. Once again, you ignored the fact that TK said the exact same thing that I did. So, are we both wrong?

                  Also TK’s post was that someone posted a model run from 5 days ago and “incorrectly” associated it with the tropics. You conveniently ignored the “incorrectly” part.

                3. Sak, if you add incorrectly to my sentence it does not change what it says. “TK was talking about a model run 5 days out and someone that said it will be a sign of whats to come (linking it). I said it COULD in my comment here on the blog.”
                  thats what I said. Now add incorrectly.
                  “Tk was talking about a model run 5 days out and someone that said it will be a sign of whats to come incorrectly (linking it). I said it COULD in my comment here on the blog.”

                  Also maybe the reason why there is more issue of you saying it is because as someone put it greatly, you do not ” read before you fault”

                  You should read some of the other comments that are going on here on the blog tonight and take a good hard look at what they are saying about the way you go about doing things in the comment section. You have a decent blog yourself, but when it comes to you commenting on other peoples stuff you constantly belittle people. As a scientist that is involved with research, I face critique all the time, there are people that can do it politely and do not belittle them. While others do not do it politely and is a negative influence. We have a saying in academia, there are those that can teach and those that need to stay in the lab.

              2. Ahhh but you purport to be the smartest person here by belittling comments by others. And SAK you have been absolutely incorrect in the past which of course we can all be …but when others are incorrect, we own up. You disappear.

                You got what you deserved from Matt. It is after all a page from your book. If you cannot take it for heaven sakes don’t dish it out

                See my previous comment to you and please respond

                1. Once again, I never claimed to be the smartest. There’s plenty of things that I have little knowledge of, and don’t get involved in. But when I see things that I know are incorrect, and the incorrect info is taken as the truth, I post the correct info.

  16. Been off the grid all day – phone was in surgery. It’s in recovery now. 😛

    March 29 1984 powerhouse low. I had a foot of snow in about 8 hours during that Thursday late morning to late afternoon. The storm also produced a considerable amount of thundersnow including cloud to ground lightning strikes north of Boston.

    About 5 days ago a Facebook weather page run by a non-meteorologist who has about 1,000 paying subscribers on a private site posted a model run on their FB page in which the GFS showed low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas, and he linked it to the coming tropical season – incorrectly. That cut off low has absolutely nothing to do with the coming tropical season. It’s not tropical. It’s an upper level driven system, which is something we see quite often in the spring.

  18. Just took the trash out. Very nice out, but I noticed a very decent
    EAST wind kicking up that is beginning to drop the temperature.
    After reaching 66 it has fallen back to 64 and I suspect it will
    fall back into the 50s soon.

    Yes, we could argue that my sensor is having an issue being
    in direct sunlight, even though it is equipped with a heat shield. Worse case it would register 1 or 2 degrees high in direct sunlight, otherwise it is pretty damn accurate.

  19. Logan is holding onto to 55 with an East wind at 16 mph.
    Pretty impressive that the temperature is holding with
    water temp right around 40. (current reading 40.6)

  21. Teaching is a tough thing. Sometimes in teaching, you have to take a person´s answer, which you know to be inaccurate and convey to them a more correct line of logic or thinking or answer in a way that the person can receive it, process it and still feel good about themselves, since they are being corrected from their original thought.

    Some people have this ability and some don´t …………….

    1. And that is the single most reason I could NEVER teach.
      I do not possess that ability. I’ll leave it at that.

    2. I had a long discussion with a person from another state re teaching to the child. She felt the child absolutely had to learn the prescribed method. I strongly disagree. I remember a conversation with you, Tom, years ago where you said you teach the method that works best. My second grade grand has a head for math. He was struggling for the first time. His teacher adjusted the thought process and he caught on immediately. To the point when asked if he needed to review, he said no and aced his test.

      Moral of the story is his strength could have been discouraged. Mine was until my senior year in high school when a brilliant teacher showed me a different thought process.

      I am reading up so don’t know where the teaching topic came from But…….You, Tom….my grands teacher….my senior high teacher …..and others who share your approach are truly exceptional.

  22. Speaking of schools and teachers, I vividly remember one of the first music video’s I watched after I arrived in the Netherlands in the fall of 1980. I was 15. It was the song “Baggy Trousers,” by Madness. It depicts a zany and very British perspective on school. I remember thinking, this is weird and not American at all, but I kind of like it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dc3AovUZgvo

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