See? There’s Still Cold Air On Earth!

116 Comments

10:06AM

Cold weekend, especially tomorrow. But already feeling cold today in comparison to many recent days in the remarkably warm pattern that has persisted for quite some time.

Though we are not diving into a consistently cold pattern, we are no longer in the persistent warmth, and even though some additional mild days are in the near future, there will be plenty of seasonable to colder-than-normal days as well.

The upcoming pattern features several weather events of mostly minor nature: 1) An ocean-effect snow event later today through early Sunday that may whiten the coastal areas of MA and even give up to a few inches of snow to parts of southeastern MA and Cape Cod. 2) A cold front passing through Monday night with rain/snow showers but probably no snow accumulation. 3) A midweek storm that odds favor mostly rain for the Boston area. 4) A late week storm in which the jury is still out regarding rain vs. snow. As we get to Christmas weekend there may be some combo of disturbance with cold air for at least some snow showers to be possible. So since a mild Monday will melt any snow that falls in coastal New England this weekend, the last chances for any kind of white Christmas for the Boston area and most of southern New England come between Friday and Christmas Day itself.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Bands of snow showers (may initially mix with rain) developing near the coast and especially south of Boston during the afternoon. High near 40 briefly. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with periods of snow showers near the coast, most numerous South Shore with up to 1 or 2 inches possible (Cape Cod may see 3 or 4 inches). Partly cloudy inland. Low 15-20 inland, 20-25 coast. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH gusts to 20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 27-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 15-20 inland, 20-25 coast. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. High 40-45. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 35-40. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Mix to rain. Low 31. High 42.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 42.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Mix to snow. Low 32. High 38.

SNEAK PEEK: Chance of snow showers with temperatures near to slightly below normal over Christmas Weekend (Saturday December 24 & Sunday December 25).

116 thoughts on “See? There’s Still Cold Air On Earth!”

  1. Tk- Do you feel good on Boston not getting any snow tonight, a dusting would get me in there and I can’t have that tonight. Ch 7 does think’s Boston will just see flurry. I know these storms though can be tricky. My wife and I will be heading to xmas party tonight and It would suck bigtime If Boston got in on this. We never get to go out with just us. My wife is so looking forward to It. Thank’s TK. I hope you are enjoying the christmas season with your son, he must be so excited for santa. I know my son is.

    1. Also I think there is more to the story regarding Mike. I know he is a hot head,
      but can’t see him pushing a kid around. I like him.

      1. Right on the fence. Watch the bands offshore and the exact wind trajectory.

        And yes I think the Mike thing is being blown out of proportion. We’ll see what comes of it.

    1. I think we get snow before the end of the year yes Charlie. But If I am wrong than I was wrong. I just hope Boston does not see a dusting tonight. Everything I am hearing this morning is saying just flurry. Down here in Pembroke we may see a dusting, who knows. Charlie I wish you a great christmas week. Where is that bet LOL.

      1. To be fair I am not counting the cape on my prediction. I had said most if not all get plowable snow towards end of month. Just a small part of cape may see plows late tonight. It has to be a larger area for my call to be right. If a larger are becomes involved tonight well than that would need to be looked at.

    1. NWS not expecting anything in Boston, IF you trust them.

      THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AID IN
      PRODUCING THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE AREA…IN THE FORM
      OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. NORTH TO
      NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CARRYING FRIGID -10C 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE
      RELATIVELY WARM /50F/ WATERS WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS TO MUCH
      OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THESE COULD ALSO EXTEND INTO THE
      VINEYARD AND SOUTHEASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY FOR A PERIOD AS WELL AS A
      FEW SHOWERS ONTO CAPE ANN IN ESSEX COUNTY.

  5. NWS not expecting anything in Boston, IF you trust them.

    THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AID IN
    PRODUCING THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE AREA…IN THE FORM
    OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. NORTH TO
    NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CARRYING FRIGID -10C 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE
    RELATIVELY WARM /50F/ WATERS WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS TO MUCH
    OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THESE COULD ALSO EXTEND INTO THE
    VINEYARD AND SOUTHEASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY FOR A PERIOD AS WELL AS A
    FEW SHOWERS ONTO CAPE ANN IN ESSEX COUNTY.

      1. So is it safe to say Boston will not get anything more than flurry.
        This is a big night for us as we never get to really go out with just us. Love my son to death but mom and dad need a night out. Working at a Hospital even a dusting would be a call in. We run a very top notch snow removal procedure. One of the cleanest hospitals around after snow.

  6. The GFS is all over the place with next Friday’s system, the 00z GFS was too warm, the 06z GFS was too south, and the 12z GFS is very cold but misses to the south. Timing will be everything to get any kind of snow out of that.

    1. If you want to find any hope, like the forecast that’s too far south, and know that the GFS will probably underforecast the ridge, which means the eventual storm track will be a bit north of the 12z depiction.

    1. JJ-Not to keep repeating myself but do you think Boston escapes the snow tonight. Most of you hear have young kids. So most of you know how big a rare night out is.

      1. John, I’m certainly not guaranteeing anything…..but, as Old Salty posted above, its the north winds causing the formation of ocean effect snow. Boston has land due north of it……and, I think the wind would have to really be almost northeast to move those bands into Boston.

        I am hoping it works out. I certainly appreciate getting a night out when one has young kids.

      2. On the last blog I gave a snow index of a 1 only for the Cape.
        I think maybe some flakes in the air for Boston but enough for a dusting.

  8. Vicki – we attempted to go to Fatima last night but there were no spaces and they were directing traffic to another area. My husband didn’t want to do that so we turned around and headed home. Hopefully, we’ll get there soon. We got there around 7:00 p.m. and I had no idea it would be so crowded. Last year when we went it was a Weds. night and it wasn’t that crowded. Maybe because that night was freezing cold. Anyway, one of these days, we are going to walk right by each other and not even know it! 🙂

    We just got in to get some last minute Christmas shopping done. It is cold out and although the sky looks threatening, I don’t smell snow in the air. That’s not to say it won’t snow here – last time I looked at doppler radar there were some light flurries well to the west of here and down near the Cape.

  9. John – I am hoping that no snow falls in Boston tonight! I don’t know if it will and I won’t venture any guesses. Hopefully you will be able to go out and if you do have a great time!

    1. Thank’s rainshine. I hope it works out. I would be fine getting called in during wee hrs just not before. Well I really hope no call at all.

    1. if you have a snow gun it needs to be at least in the upper 20s and would want it to be in the mid to low20s for the most snow with the smaller amount of water. I made one with a hose and a few other things attached to it. 🙂 but it does not create much.

        1. Big bucks I looked into It. I saw one that was gas powered and in the off season It can be used as a power washer.

  13. I’m going for a walk with my son to a local pond and woods. Last year while walking through there we came upon a small fir tree that somebody had put some ornaments on. It could barely hold them, but it did. Reminded me of Charlie Brown’s tree. 🙂

    Maybe we’ll find it out there again this afternoon…

  16. today : mostly to partly cloudy highs in the upper30s
    tonight slight chance of flurries lows in the low to mid10s
    sunday partly sunny with chance of morning flurries cold highs in the low30s and uper20s
    sunday night partly cloudy lows in the 10s
    monday cloudy highs in the 30s
    monday night slight chance of a snow or rain shower lows in the lower30s
    tuesday sunny highs in the 30s
    tuesday night becoming cloudy precipitation coming in from the southwest and south
    slight chance of snow late
    wednesday precipitation in the form of rain possible mix outside of 495. highs in the night low to mid 40s
    wednesday night clear lows in the low30s.
    thursday sunny highs in the low 40s
    thursday night clear lows in the low30s and upper20s
    friday cloudy a chance of rain
    friday night cloudy with a chance of rain lows in the low40s and upper 30s.
    saturday cloudy with a chance of rain
    remember this is a forcast for areas in northeast mass around 495.
    the interior could see a mix of snow sleet and freezing rain from the wednesday storm
    not to mention their is still time for change.
    i am thinking areas outside of 495 has a chance of having small amounts of snow on the ground for next weekend. as the mid week storm could give them some snow accumulations but will change to an icy mix to rain. then another shot at precipitation next weekend. so we will just have to wait .but a pattern change has and will continue to form

  17. As Tom posted the skys down here very dark, We did just have a flurry pass through.
    I expect we should see a very good dusting around here. I am hearing mostly for the heavier bands after Plymouth. I would not be surprised if we receive more than a dusting say Hanover to cape, with of course more on cape.

    1. Matt- please don’t give me more to worry about. My wife and I have big plans.
      If Boston gets a dusting my night is ruined. Why do you think boston will be in on it.

  19. Cape Ann is the only place that might get a dusting within our area. Down on the cape is still under a WWA. John you will be fine!!

    1. I just was watching ch5 and David Brown said just a cape and south shore thing. I suspect Hanover, Pembroke and Marshfield may get at least a good dusting. Of course this is where Coastal, Tom and myself live. He also said rain for next week. I think he had 48 for friday. Hadi as we head into christmas week I wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas. Heading out soon, have a great night to all and thank you for your input.

        1. I wish everyone a merry christmas or any holiday u may celebrate and I think the only way we get a white Christmas is if u got a potable snow making machine and I’m not sure that will work as we may be to warm

  20. Happy Holidays to you Charlie and to everyone else on this blog. We might be dreaming of a White Christmas this year. I hope winter gets going when the calendar turns to 2012.

  21. Jeremy Reiner on his 7-day has a high temp of only 38 for Monday…others plus NWS have low-mid 40s. It’s only a few degrees difference, but I thought it was interesting anyway. Regardless, cold retreats quickly and warmth for much of next week and probably most of the rest of the year. My bet is we see 50 at least one more time by years end.

    It will be a snowless December and probably first half of January.

      1. And those warmups always last way more days than the cooldowns…come to think of it, I can’t recall any chill more than 2 – 2 1/2 days. This current one being no exception.

  26. The ground is dusted. Quite windy and its 32F/27F (temp and dewpoint), so we are getting modified air off of the ocean with snowshowers.

    The long range GFS (I know, I know….its the long range GFS 🙂 ), has been hinting at some real mild to warm weather the last 3 or 4 runs towards/just after the New Year. In looking at the big picture, it really chills out Alaska and northwest Canada again, much as both regions were 3 or 4 weeks ago. The pattern looks like the November pattern.

    1. The long range EURO seems a little more reasonable than the GFS (doesnt it always ?) in maintaining a cool shot every once in a while followed by mild periods. If its 0z run verifies, Christmas Day looks very nice with a 1033 mb high centered just south of New England.

  29. Instead of snow right before Christmas were gonna have rain for around the 23rd then back to seasonable to slightly above temp wise and I can totally see how we get a snowless dec and a brown new year, have a good day everyone.

  30. Joe Joyce’s early am forecast. Boston down to 15 degrees tonight. Tomorrow starts off cold but then SW winds and higher temps. Rest of the week also similar to the TK forecast.
    He sees no snow for the rest of this year.

  31. Some morning light reveals maybe a quarter inch of snow…….a breeze thats blowing snow off of home’s roofs, a very slick looking street and a slush filled pool. There’s still some flurries falling from the sky. My oldest is very happy !

  32. awwwwww snow …………….sighhhh

    Framingham has crystal blue sky with some puffy clouds tossed in.

    I have a friend spending the weekend in Chatham and have asked if he’ll let me know what they get for accumulation.

  33. UGH meter for the GFS long range for warm temps after 1st of year a 2 and for Joe Joyce’s prediction of no snow since there is time for that to change.
    UGH meter for not having a White Christmas is a 6.

  34. Today’s Logan avg hi/lo is 40F/27F. Deduct 1F for both hi/lo roughly every 4th day….So by next Thursday(22 nd) its 39F/26F….Mon(26th) its 38F/25F….Fri(30th) its 37F/24F.

    I’ll guess about -10F today, near normal tomorrow and then based on projections, I’d guess at least 9 of the last 12 days are above normal with at least 3 of those being +10F or more. To get that, all that needs to occur is a day of 48F/35F, like a few days forecasted for later this week.

    I’d be curious to know what the record departure is for December. I really think December’s departure is going to end up greater than November’s.

      1. It really is pretty cool. The conditions were perfect this morning too. Temps in the teens with low dewpoints. The snow was actually powdery which sometimes it tougher to achieve if temps & humidity are too high.

        Here’s a picture after about 2-1/2 hours running. I covered about 800 sq. ft. ranging from a dusting up to 1/2″ right under the gun.
        http://s1121.photobucket.com/albums/l520/web722/

  36. I give it a 10 on the Ugh scale. Not to worry. Our time will come. Hope you all have a Merry Xmas if I don’t get a chance to tune in;)

  37. Permit me a moment of honesty:

    I love snow. BUT…
    I don’t care if we are not getting it, as long as it’s not hitting the 50s and 60s on a consistent basis anymore. And other than Wednesday, most of our days will be seasonable to cooler than normal during the next 10 days. I can handle that. 🙂

    We don’t get a white Christmas every year. That’s a fact. I don’t mind it at all. 🙂

    1. Oh and we will see measurable snow through most of the Boston area before the end of December. That thought has not changed.

      1. That a boy. nice way to end it. I just hope we do not get that storm between friday and sunday, It waits till after Sunday. What is your thoughts on this TK.

  38. John on Joe’s blog he talks about two storms on Friday and Monday both look to stay south of us. I like to call these watcher’s since anytime low pressure could form on the east coast the track needs to be watched. I would love to see a Friday overnight storm and it is done before sunrise and that would give people time to shovel if needed and still get to their holiday destinations.

    2. At this point I’m hoping for no snow until after new years Wait I have to sit down. Can’t believe I said that. Too many trying to get to family.

      As I’ve said my family headed to north Conway every Christmas vacation when I was growing up. I remember only one where there was not snow to ski and this was before snow making or when it just started but was poor at best. The one where we couldn’t ski was somewhere in the mid 60s. My son was saying killington has 10 out of 100 trails open. My brother who is on ski patrol at sunappee said one slope is open and not worth skiing.

      However There have been so many winters in near memory where snow has been scarce for Christmas vacation skiing

  39. from NWS for Next Friday:

    FRI/SAT…
    SPLIT FLOW REGIME OFFERS ANOTHER POSSIBLE PRECIP EVENT. AS EXPECTED
    NOTICEABLE TIMING DIFFERENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE. ATMOSPHERE MAY BE
    COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX BUT DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS
    TIME RANGE GIVEN MODEL SPREAD.

  40. Matt Noyes hinted in his blog that he felt a 50% chance it being snow do lets see what happens.

    TK props to you for saying it would north.

    1. Might have to downgrade that 6 on the UGH meter for no White Christmas.
      Matt Noyes seems to know what he is talking about.

  41. Chatham…..1/2 mile in snow for about the last hour. Seems bands of snow have intensified a bit the last 1 hr. A bit of light snow has redeveloped here the last half hour after having stopped around 10 am.

    1. Got an email from friend in Chatham earlier. They had solid cover. He thought maybe an inch. I suspect they may have headed home by now. Hope driving is ok

    2. I feel like I must be missing something as far as how there’s a chance of snow just after Christmas. Granted, per the GFS, there is a decent precip along the coast with a low in the southern stream could even pass south and east of us. But, before that happens, it looks like New England receives plenty of mild air courtesy of a low crossing through southern Canada and a retreating high pressure heading out towards Nova Scotia. Its one of those things where I could see it precipitating, have a northeast wind, and it still being in the mid to upper 30s N/W of Boston, 40-43F in Boston and even a bit warmer south and east of that.

  43. There are signs of the NAO going negative around the 26-27th, so this may be the storm that prevents this December from going below average in snowfall. Long ways out but a lot of potential.

  44. today; sunny cold highs in the upper 20s to low30s
    tonight clear and chilly lows in the the 10s
    monday warmer and sunny with highs in the upper30s to low40s
    monday night clear lows in the upper20s
    tuesday mostly sunny highs in the upper 30s and low40s
    tuesday night increasing clouds lows in the upper20s
    wednesday mostly cloudy with a chance of showers highs in the low 40s
    wednesday night chance of showers lows in the mid 30s
    thursday sunny and warm highs in the mid 40s
    thursday night mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers lows in the mid 30s
    friday mostly cloudy chance of showers
    friday night clearing lows in the upper 20s to low30s
    saturday sunny highs in the upper 30s
    the storm for this wednesday looks to warm for snow around 495 but could start out as an icy mix in the high terrain.
    a front moves through late this week and gives us a chance at showers the holiday weekend looks to have normal temperatures and it will be dry. the 26 looks wet right now. but i was able to make some snow with my familys snow guns.

      1. Yes, thanks Scott, I did as well…….. A few months from now and maybe I’ll understand what its trying to tell me and the implications to the weather. 🙂

  48. Denver only had 23 inches of snow total last year. This year they already have more than that and its only December.

    1. there are some unexpected scores out there right now…….14-0 Carolina over Houston and 10-0 Washington over NY Giants. I suppose both home teams have time to turn things around.

  49. I always think when a coach gets fired it gets the team going which is the case with KC. Houston Schaub is out injured and unless he could come back for the playoffs I don’t see them making a deep run. With the Giants Manning only 1`/8 right now and WSH dominating time of possession. Although that makes me happy as a Cowboys fan.

    1. For sure. As a New Englander, I have a hard time rooting for any NY team and then with what happened in the Super Bowl four years ago, I always root against the Giants.

  50. I always say if Plaico Burress was not playing for the Giants they don’t win the Super Bowl. I thought Patroits were fortunate to get their considering in the AFC Championship game they played against a Chargers team that was banged up with Philip Rivers playing with an injured leg and Antonio Gates with a broken toe.

  52. CPC’s updated 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks. At face value, looks like the US is flooded with mild pacific air, especially western and central. Maybe a high sneaking just to our region’s north in that time frame holds our temps from being outrageously mild.

  55. 18z GFS is snow Christmas Eve & Christmas Day Boston N & W, snow to rain SE MA. Now I usually don’t like detail that far out, and I still don’t. I’m just reading the model forecast as is.

    Blog updated!

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