Tuesday March 23 2021 Forecast (7:16AM)

61 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 23-27)

One more very nice day in our four-day stretch of fabulous March weather. Once again with high pressure over us and a light wind, we’ll see sea breeze development keeping the coast cooler while inland areas warm nicely. But let’s face reality: This is New England and this is March. You know this isn’t going to last, and it’s not. Changes are coming, and it starts as an often-seen springtime cut off low to our south lifts out and adds moisture in the form of cloudiness to our sky as a warm front approaches from the west Wednesday. While any rainfall from the low to the south stays mostly offshore, a bit of a link between that and the warm front does produce a period of two of rainfall from Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Wednesday itself will be a cooler day with a more general onshore gradient wind flow and extensive cloud cover, but we’ll bust into the warm sector on Thursday when all areas see a nice southwesterly wind. This will help much of the region warm to levels that feel more like mid to late spring, but at this time of the year the water temperatures mean that a southwesterly wind is going to keep the South Coast, especially Cape Cod, much cooler, and there may also be more cloudiness down that way as a result of the warm and relatively more humid air passing over that water. As a cold front approaches and passes through the region during Friday, we’ll start in the warm air but see lots of clouds and increasing rain shower activity from west to east as the front nears. Behind that front, which will be parented by strengthening low pressure passing to the north of the region, a shot of breezy and cooler air arrives for Saturday, but it will be a dry day to start the final weekend of the month.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59 coast, 60-67 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 36-43. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 49-56, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 41-48. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny except mostly cloudy at times South Coast region. Highs 49-54 Islands / Cape Cod, 57-64 remainder of South Coast, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 48-55. SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially during the afternoon. Highs 48-55 Islands & Cape Cod, 56-63 remainder of South Coast and southeastern MA as well Cape Ann, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

The back half of the last weekend of March look unsettled as low pressure approaches and moves in from the southwest with some beneficial rain potential for March 28, that may start out as a rain/sleet mix over some interior areas if enough cold air gets in just before the system arrives. With much colder air nearby, we have to watch the track and evolution of this low as it may not end cleanly as just rain on March 29, but with the potential for some mix/snow involved as well. This low may also be slow to move away with a bit of an atmospheric roadblock in place, and this should result in a windy/colder ending to the month with even a reinforcing shot of cold air possibly arriving and lasting through the first day of April. There are some notable differences in the various guidance out that far so will re-evaluate this going forward.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 2-6)

Going to be near boundary of Canadian cold and US Mid Atlantic warmth. You know what that means. Uncertain temperature forecast made even more complicated by the ocean water temperatures. Also the potential for a couple rounds of unsettled weather is certainly there. Not even going to try to venture anything day-to-day this far in advance. Stay tuned…

61 thoughts on “Tuesday March 23 2021 Forecast (7:16AM)”

  1. Thank you, TK.

    These warm sunny days, with radiational cooling at night sound like October conditions that color the autumn foliage. But instead, it’s now causing ideal conditions for maple sugaring. Side point, it has been cold by the coast, especially around 4:00.

    4. Thanks Joshua. Nice photos, especially that snow scene. I had no idea Scotland sees that much snow.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    I was thinking about the younger folks who have been part of WHW. How blessed we are to watch their careers develop. WxWatcher, Matt and Scott from Marblehead.

    Tk, are you still in touch with Scott?

    1. Occasionally on Facebook! It’s been a while since I’ve chatted with him but last post I’ve seen he was doing well! I still remember when he worked part-time down at a restaurant by the beach and I went there one evening to say hello and grab some pizza. 🙂

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Another stellar walking day today! I don’t love heat, so this is my kind of weather!

  10. Thanks, TK…

    Sun has broken through here!

    Thanks for the kind words last night about teachers.
    I am in between classes right now.

    I had a “had to get out of the house” moment Sunday. Inspired by all of the great photography shared here recently, I got out my camera and went to Lake Winnecunnet in Norton and watched the first (full day of) spring sunset. I snapped a couple of hundred of shots and I thought this one was nice:

    https://imgur.com/TGDkyZO

    Gotta run! Third period starts virtually in three minutes!!! :0

      1. That’s the lens that Santa brought me last Christmas. I finally made time to go practice and play with it!

  12. Interesting. Why is Logan so much cooler today?
    It has a ESE wind a 9 mph, yet it is only 48. Yesterday it was
    holding at 55 with an East wind at 18 mph. Defies logic
    to me. Water temp is virtually the same at 40.46 degrees.

    It is a head scratcher to me.

    2. It was colder and land this morning so at the beginning of the solar heating when the air started to rise above the city it probably pulled some of that colder inland air out to the airport so they cool down that way before the wind flipped around.

  13. Sunday’s sunset reminded me of one of my better shots that I have taken in my life. In 2014, we visited my college buddy who lives in Sarasota. At sunset each day, residents and tourists stop what they’re doing and pause to watch the sun set over the Gulf of Mexico. This is one of my many photos that actually came out pretty nice:

    Sunset over Siesta Key:

    https://imgur.com/zL04o34

    I think a member of the WHW family lives in or visits Sarasota/Siesta Key. Can’t remember who.

    3. That might be me. I’m still nursing my broken ankle. I fell 2/18 on black ice that was covered with a thin layer of snow. It started snowing about 12:30 pm one hour later I was in a ambulance on the way to the hospital. Surgery took hours to put my ankle back together. Hopefully back to Sarasota by mid May.

        1. I’m still in a cast was a bad break. Been to two posts op appointments screws and plates are doing ok. Hopefully in boot in a couple of weeks. Thanks for asking.

  14. Thanks TK.

    Just want to say I hate allergies. Never had them as a kid or even through my 20’s. Then boom – you’ve got allergies. My eyes are watering more than when I saw Titanic.

  18. While we’re on the baseball metaphor, if you’re a baseball fan and a stats person, the Red Sox Media Guide is always a fun read. I have all of them dating back to the late-90s. This year’s edition was posted online last night – a sure sign that baseball season is around the corner.

    http://pressroom.redsox.com/GetFile.ashx?&Location=MEDIA%20GUIDE/Media%20Guides/2021/Boston%20Red%20Sox%202021%20Media%20Guide.pdf

    It contains everything you ever wanted to know about all of the players on the roster and in the minors, as well as virtually all of the stats in team history. All of those interesting little tidbits the broadcasters always mention about the players? This is where they get them. For instance, did you know that Xander Bogaerts speaks English, Spanish, Dutch, and Papiamento?

  19. Next Thursday kicks off the 2021 season for MLB. Will see if the AL East is a close race between the Yankees and Red Sox as the snowfall race has been. First Yankees Red Sox series of the season will be the first weekend in June.

  20. SAK, thanks for sending the red Sox media guide. As you may know, I’m an avid baseball fan. Very much looking forward to a more normal season.

    Xander is an interesting guy. The Dutch love him. He features prominently in their newspapers. He is after all a Dutch citizen. Baseball is a fairly popular sport in the Netherlands. There are baseball/softball diamonds in almost every town, and they’re well kept.

    Robert, take good care of yourself. Sounds like you’re on the mend, but it also looks like a long recovery process.

    Jean, I also don’t like the heat, so I am loving these days. It’s our autumn in spring. May this continue right through summer!

    1. Baseball is my 2nd favorite – behind hockey. After having zero interest in it last year, for a variety of reasons, I am very much looking forward to the upcoming Red Sox season, even though I’ll probably need to sell a body part to afford a Fenway Frank and a beer (never mind the tickets). I hope to be able to get to at least a few games (in a normal season I attend 6-8 games). I am good friends with one of the team’s official scorers and have had plenty of conversations with 1 of the others, usually about hockey though, so I’ve been able to get up to the press box before and after games at times in the past, though I doubt that will be allowed this season.

  21. DOH!
    Happy spring everybody! Been a long time since I posted so I wanted to drop in and say how dee doo. hope everybody has been enjoying the nice weather we’ve been having, and thank you Tk for your great forecasts and discussions. I read every day since the ‘BZ blog but have only posted a couple times. Take care everyone!

  22. I just looked up “Papiamento”, as it was new to me. Evidently it’s a “Portuguese based creole language spoken in the Dutch Caribbean”.
    I knew Bogaerts spoke the other three, but I didn’t know about this one. Happy to learn something!

  23. Switching gears, was just looking at some historical data for this date for Boston. Some things stood out to me:

    1. Logan reported a trace of snow on this date last year and in 2019.
    2. In 2015 the high for the day was only 33.
    3. Boston has had at least 1″ of snow on the ground on this date 14% of the time.
    4. On 3/23/1891, Boston still had 16″ of snow on the ground, and on 3/23/1891, Boston had 20″ of snow on the ground!
    5. On 2012, Logan hit 76 degrees, but the record is actually 78, set back in 1938.
    6. Boston has had measurable snow only 9% of the time on this date, and hasn’t had any measurable snow since 0.1″ in 2001. The last time there was more was 2.9″ (the record for the day), in 1992.

    In conclusion – anything is possible around here at this time of year.

    1. I just came across a picture in my FB memories from last year on this date with snow falling. Most of the accumulation here (a couple inches) was late afternoon & evening.

      Also 9 years ago yesterday (3-22-2012) I walked around the lake in Wakefield with temps in the 80s.

      1. My oldest’s youngest was born March 18, 2012. Her oldest stayed with us. She and her cousin were outside playing with a water table in their bathing suits. My daughter said it stayed pretty warm for the remainder of spring …..although I’m not in anyway claiming accuracy for that statement….just that she said she and the baby and her three year old were outside most days.

  24. Thanks TK.

    We were up in northern VT skiing this past weekend at Jay Peak and Mad River and the conditions, weather, and views were absolutely spectacular! Visibility must have been 80+ miles.

    I snapped loads of pictures but here are a few of my favorites…

    Jay Peak just below the summit looking towards Quebec:
    https://imgur.com/QyGYIin

    Summit of Jay Peak and Top of the Tram from the top of the Jet chair:
    https://imgur.com/dryv52E

    Top of Mad River looking east with Mt Washington in the distance:
    https://imgur.com/9enUatP

    Skiing the Catamount bowl at Mad River:
    https://imgur.com/LtBz9WG

    1. I should add that Saturday at Jay Peak still felt winter-like with the wind and residual cold. They are 100% open and still have a very deep snowpack.

      Sunday at Mad River was summer like with temps pushing 60 and some people skiing in T-shirts. They were grilling outside and playing Bob Marley. Huge soft corn snow bumps and bare spots were emerging on exposed sunny trails all over the place with some exposed rocks and grass to navigate around. Classic Mad River. It was awesome.

      If the models are correct for early week, the ski season could get a nice extension with a good dumping of snow to replenish all the melting happening this week. May try to get one more day in later next week!

    2. Just breathtaking. Thank you for sharing and for bringing back great memories. I do miss standing on the side of the slope looking out. My dad would often say that I did that more than actually skiing. Even as a youngster the mountains were my favorite place to be.

  25. Winter ain’t done yet if the 12z GFS, CMC, and Euro are correct with cold shots and a couple snow chances in the extended, right through the end of the first full week in April.

    1. The volatility of spring and its potential to play out is definitely illustrated on those forecasts.

  26. Mark, really nice shots from NNE, thanks!

    SAK, hockey and baseball are my two favorite sports, too.

    JJ, Boston may win the snow battle, but it’s going to take a bases loaded hit batsman, followed by a wild pitch. Given how late we are in the snow season and Boston’s latitude compared to NYC, the `game’ is being played at home. So, it would be a walk-off with no chance for NY to come back.

  27. Today is the 2 year anniversary of the freak, localized snowstorm we received in Tolland County. I had 6″ in Coventry while 5 miles away in Manchester there was nothing. It was a combination of some convergence and upsloping. It was pretty wild and while I was expecting some snow when I woke up in the AM, I definitely wasnt expecting that much!

    Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    47m

    This was a cool one – and actually pretty well forecast too. More than anything else was a reminder to me of how far our computer modeling has come that we were even able to get close on this one.

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1374445288488767488?s=20

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