Thursday March 25 2021 Forecast (7:26AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 25-29)

“Hey! Where’s my 70 degrees?!” I’ll hear this somewhere online or in person this morning. I can almost guarantee it. But I’m going to take this opportunity for this reminder. A TV or weather app icon may show you a number, but an icon can’t add value to a forecast. It can’t tell you that today dawns with overcast, areas of fog, scattered rainfall, and temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. It can’t tell you that the conditions were expected to start out that way because we’re still in the cool air mass ahead of a warm front. It isn’t going to explain to you that it takes time for that frontal boundary to move across the region, but it will do so. It’s definitely not going to tell you that once it does cross the region that the clouds associated with it may not completely break up and clear out until later morning or even very early afternoon. It’s certainly not going to tell you that the clouds may be rather stubborn to clear out at all over some South Coast locations, especially Cape Cod, where they are surrounded by water relatively cold compared to the incoming air mass. And depending on how good your app is, no icon is going to explain that coastal areas may never even get close to 70 today because the air flow will be from the east and may even shift to northerly for a short time there thanks to a very weak low pressure wave on the front, and then will be weak enough to allow the development of sea breezes near the shoreline of the region. But all of those tidbits are true, and I hope they added some value to your expectation of today’s weather. So now we can move onto tonight and beyond, and a more conventional description: Low pressure parenting the warm front that crosses the region today will pass north of our area tonight and early Friday and drag a cold front through the region with an episode of rain showers, but it will take until evening for this front to clear the entire area, so we’ll spend much of the day still in the warm sector, although much winder due to a much tighter pressure gradient thanks to that low pressure area intensifying as it passes. A low pressure trough will pass by in the evening introducing colder air to the region. So our weekend will start chilly and breezy Saturday with some passing clouds, but that day will turn sunnier and less windy as high pressure moves in and the pressure gradient relaxes. This sets up a quick temperature drop off Saturday evening with mostly clear sky and light wind to start, but this temperature drop will be thwarted by the quick advance of cloudiness, which will act as a blanket, ahead of the next low pressure system. This system will be a small but rather potent low moving through the Great Lakes, sending an occluded front our way likely resulting in a solid band of rainfall arriving during the midday hours of Sunday and continuing until the evening as a secondary low starts to form over the region just as the low starts to pull away. As the new low center becomes the dominant one and pulls off toward the Canadian Maritimes, it will cause us a period of windy and colder weather Monday with the potential for a few passing rain and/or snow showers and a reminder that winter left us not all that long ago…

TODAY: Overcast through mid morning with areas of fog and drizzle and additional areas of rain tapering off from west to east. Breaking clouds west to east late morning followed by clearing with sun dominant this afternoon, except clouds hanging on closer to the South Coast especially over Cape Cod. Highs ranging widely from near 50 Cape Cod & Islands to near 60 other coastal areas where it may cool back to the 50s during the afternoon to 70-77 away from coastal areas, warmest in interior valley locations. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH this morning shifting to SW around 10 MPH midday on but coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Cloudy overnight with rain showers arriving. Lows 48-55. Wind SW up to 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with episodes of rain showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm through mid afternoon. Variably cloudy late-day. Highs 50-57 Cape Cod & Islands, 58-65 remainder of South Coast and interior southeastern MA, Cape Ann MA, and most of interior RI, 66-73 elsewhere. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W late.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusts 35-45 MPH, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix morning. Sunny with a few high clouds afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts morning, diminishing afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 36-43 evening, may rise slowly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog/drizzle morning. Rain arriving west to east by midday continuing thereafter. Highs 46-53. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog and lingering rain possible evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind shifting to N and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds / intervals of sun. A passing light rain and / or snow shower possible. Highs 41-48. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)

High pressure moves in with fair weather for the last couple of days of March, coolest March 30, milder March 31. A slow-moving cold front approaches April 1 and takes its time departing the region April 2 with a period of unsettled weather. High pressure moves in with fair weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 4-8)

Leaning toward the idea of high pressure centered to the south of New England with dry and milder to warmer weather to start this period, but we’ll have to watch a boundary to the north with colder air on the other side, which may drift down and bring cooler and potentially eventually unsettled weather to the region toward middle and latter portions of this period.

62 thoughts on “Thursday March 25 2021 Forecast (7:26AM)”

    1. Ironically, looks like Cape Cod has some breaks.

      On one hand, late March sun strength says yes.

      On the other, for the coastline, I see that weak circulation south of us and wonder if that prohibits a west or southwest surface wind from pushing through the immediate coastline.

      1. That would be typical of Spring. We shall see.
        Could be a day where Logan struggles in the 50s, while here in JP we approach or surpass 70. Of course that line could be farther inland today. Hope not, but not much I can do about it.

    1. Just smile and tell them to look for a 70 under DP. The air sure smells wet. I closed windows for first time in days

      1. When I walked outside this morning even though it wasn’t that warm yet it had the distinctive smell of spring humidity…

        2. My “weather app” is giving me a humidity number of 81% — and I believe it: I just got in from a walk (pushing a stroller), and it’s summer-like despite being in the mid-60’s.

  16. Getting brighter here in JP and temperature is responding.
    Up to 59. 11 degrees to get to 70. Not looking good at the moment, but if the sun breaks through????????????

  18. I will have a visual update on my brother’s snow pile by sometime this weekend but I can tell you as of this morning it’s maximum height is about 17 in and it is still around 4 ft wide at its widest.

  19. An extremely, strongly worded statement:

    A tornado outbreak — including the threat of a few long-tracked, violent tornadoes — is expected today into early this evening over the Southeast, especially parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee. Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds to hurricane force also are possible over a broad area from the central Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians.

    This is an uncommon, upper-echelon parameter space. In such an environment, any relatively discrete supercells will be capable of multiple tornadoes, some long-tracked and strong to violent (EF2-5 possible), with considerable destructive potential.

    1. Pretty volatile set-up. There’s going to be damage. Let’s just hope there are no fatalities.

  21. Nice to hear the comments on humidity. I took my 95 yo mom out to lunch, her first time eating out since last March. As we walked to the car I said to her that the air felt like Florida…said it then read it here!

  23. I’m seeing a quick headline that says a tornado has touched down in Alabama. I don’t know where but maybe in the Jacksonville area where that warning is. THAT IS NOT A DEFINITE…JUST A GUESS ON MY PART BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGE

  24. 12z ECMWF op run wants it to snow here on the night of April 1. But it also was on the snow train for this coming Sunday night & Monday as well – which it has now jumped off of. That said, it doesn’t mean that scenario is impossible (the April 1-2 period I mentioned above). Again, don’t infer “TK’s talking about a big snowstorm” … just looking at the potential in the medium range that we could see a set-up for some late season flakes. Springtime in New England – nothing unusual about this, no matter how warm it is today / tomorrow.

    1. Saw that. Didn’t get excited. Too early yet, but it sure could happen. We shall continue to watch. 🙂

    1. I ended up getting asked 4 times “where are the 70s” (2 more since my 10:15 update haha).

  26. The south is having alot more tornado’s in populated areas this week compared to the last outbreak.

  27. Very very serious situation about 40 miles south of Birmingham, AL.

    Radar hook and debris ball unfortunately very strong.

    1. Just awful and unfortunately still going. Per the Weather Channel it’s been going for 76 miles thus far.

  28. One report said southern part of Birmingham got it. Again I have not verified the report. Either way…an awful mess. I’m also hearing multiple deaths.

  29. Tk do you think I can get away with a short sleeve t shirt out In the field tomorrow, thanks .

    1. Yes, but have a jacket handy in case we get a passing shower or downpour. They are certainly possible. 🙂

  30. GFS has a lot of below normal temps the first 10 or 12 days of April on it’s 18z run.

  31. Wow, another win for the Islanders…5-0 against the Bruins this season! Islanders have a great team again this year but would have never predicted this.

      1. I sure hope you are right but it will be no cake walk winning this division and TB will be tough to get past as well.

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