Wednesday March 31 2021 Forecast (7:21AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 31 -APRIL 4)

The last day of March is likely to be warmer than the first 4 days of April. That’s spring in New England – you know how it goes. We’ll be in a mild southerly air flow ahead of an approaching cold front today and we’ll see a lot more cloudiness than we saw the last couple days, but other than the cooling influence a southerly wind has along the South Coast, many areas will push or exceed 60 today. We’ll start to see some isolated to scattered rain shower activity moving into the region, mostly west of Boston, during this afternoon, and as low pressure coming out of the southern US links up with the front and moves up along it, the shower activity will become numerous to widespread during tonight and into Thursday morning. Now it’s pretty apparent that the end of the precipitation will come before the arrival of air cold enough to flip it to snow in the WHW forecast area, with rain showers lingering in the region at least through midday and maybe one more surge sometime in the early or mid afternoon before we say bye to that. As the cold air comes in at night, a brief snow flurry may occur mainly north of Boston, otherwise expect dry and colder weather Thursday night and Friday, and while we see some sun for a time on Friday, very cold air aloft will likely allow for diurnal cloud development filling the sky in again, so sun may become quite limited that day. An area of high pressure slides just to the south of New England Saturday, which will be a milder day with more sun, but by late-day or evening more clouds will arrive ahead of another disturbance from the northwest, and a cold front associated with this disturbance will bring cooler weather back to the region for Sunday, which right now looks unsettled to start with a few showers of rain and even mix/snow, though insignificant, and then mainly dry weather.

TODAY: Variably cloudy – most sun this morning and lingering longest Cape Cod. Isolated rain showers mainly well west and northwest of Boston this afternoon. Highs 60-67 except 52-59 South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers in the evening. Cloudy with numerous to widespread rain showers overnight. Lows 49-56. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with widespread to numerous rain showers morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers ending southwest to northeast afternoon. Highs 51-58 morning, then falling into the 40s in the afternoon. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a very light rain or snow shower possible southeastern NH and northeastern MA. Partial clearing overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts to 30 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partial sun morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially in the morning.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy with a passing shower of rain/mix/snow possible overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a passing shower of rain/mix/snow possible morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 5-9)

The large scale pattern will feature a block with a broad low pressure area retrograding through the Canadian Maritimes, keep this area on the cooler side but not too far from normal due to days that are cool but nights that the temperature doesn’t fall too much. At least the early part of the period may feature some unsettled weather do to the position of the aforementioned low pressure area, followed by mostly dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 10-14)

The tendency may be for the block to re-organize itself, with one low pulling away to be replaced by another one, first coming from the west before slowing down. This is not a high confidence outlook and is a mix of guidance and climatology. Not expecting this to turn into a very wet pattern, though it may be unsettled with a lack of temperature extremes.

32 thoughts on “Wednesday March 31 2021 Forecast (7:21AM)”

    2. Thank you, WxW. A fair amount of our northeast coast is being reclaimed. Humarock’s fourth cliff is eroding too. It makes me sad.

  10. Thanks TK
    On this date back in 1997 the beginning of the April Fools Storm. Rain that turned to a heavy wet snow during the afternoon continuing through the night and into the morning of April 1st.

    1. There was one missing character in your email address. WordPress is extremely picky. 😉

    1. 65 in south Sutton. Fairly decent wind but son is stopping by on way home from work for a distanced visit which is always special….so I’ll sit out and wait.

  15. Very warm and sunny in Northwestern Europe. Been that way for several days. Temps easily hit the mid 70s in the Netherlands (as high as 24C). Cooler weather is on the way, though.

  16. TK vs. NWS for Friday sky condition…

    TK: Partial sun, then mostly cloudy.
    NWS: Mostly sunny.

    One of us is gonna be wrong.

    1. I know which one. I know early April weather. I can’t tell you how many times we would play baseball where the day started out sunny then, oh sometime between 10AM and Noon it clouded over and without the sun, was very uncomfortable trying to play baseball. I always HATED those days! So yes, I am betting on TK being correct. I hope he is wrong, but I fear not,

  18. TK mentioned a lower than normal confidence outlook beyond Day 10… I’d say that’s putting it lightly. Take a look at the difference between the 12z operational CMC/GEM (top) and its ensemble mean (bottom). There are other clues the models are giving that they have no idea what’s going to happen beyond mid to late next week. Looks like a classic springtime low predictability pattern. Most difficult time of the year for day 7+ forecasts IMO.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2021033112&fh=240

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2021033112&fh=240

  19. To answer a question from a few days ago – In 1996, the home opener an Fenway was snowed out on April 8. They did play on April 9, then got snowed out again on April 10.

    1. 1996 … the April that it just wanted to snow. We had several events that month.

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