Monday April 5 2021 Forecast (7:17AM)

34 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 5-9)

The large scale weather pattern features a typical springtime “omega block” (a configuration of low pressure / high pressure / low pressure from west to east that resembles the Greek letter omega as plotted on a weather map). Here in southeastern New England we find ourselves on the western side of the easternmost trough to start this week, and the corresponding surface low pressure area is centered south of Nova Scotia and will move southward into the waters east of New England today before turning east and moving away during Tuesday. The circulation with this storm system is quite large and has been bringing rain and snow to Maine since yesterday, continuing up there for a while today while down in southern New England only a few patches of light rainfall may make it near the coast and over Cape Cod before pulling away Tuesday. When we get to the middle of the week, the entire configuration will shift eastward and reorganize so we found ourselves on the eastern side of the high pressure ridge. This means dry weather with mildest temperatures away from the coast, which will be influenced by the still-cold ocean water via the development of sea breezes. Abnormally dry conditions are again observed across the region, and with the lack of rain in the forecast, we’re slipping back toward drought again. Also, the dry surfaces and pre leaf-out status of vegetation leave the region very vulnerable to quick development and easy spread of brush fires, especially early this week when wind speeds will be up somewhat.

TODAY: Overcast Cape Cod with a few periods of light rain possible. Mostly cloudy southeastern NH and the balance of eastern MA. Partly sunny elsewhere. Highs 45-50 Cape Cod, 50-55 southeastern NH and eastern MA, 55-60 elsewhere. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 coast, 55-62 inland. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 49-56 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation ground fog forming. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57 coast, 58-65 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 10-14)

While there are guidance differences, the overall idea continues to support a tendency for a blocking pattern across North America on the large scale. For us here, high pressure centered at the surface to northeast of the region will try to keep low pressure from the west advancing into the region as the upper level pattern nudges eastward with the ridge moving a bit further to the east over the region while the western low pressure area in the block makes its way into the Midwest and tries to send a surface feature eastward. The leaning at this time continues to be toward drier weather with most rainfall being held to the southwest and south of the region. However an easterly flow may evolve at the surface enough to allow some low level moisture in at some point over the weekend, but it’s too soon to be sure of that. A reorganization of the block should again find our area on the dry side of it as we head toward the middle of the month.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 15-19)

An overall tendency for blocking continues with our area on the drier side but the mean air flow often from the north and east with no big temperature swings. This will have to be re-evaluated as guidance often struggles with blocking patterns on the large scale.

34 thoughts on “Monday April 5 2021 Forecast (7:17AM)”

  7. Thank you, TK.

    Overcast but can see some bright blue sky coming into view from my perch by the window

      1. Sending the blue sky your way. Or trying to. Although I kind of like overcast. Clouds are like mother nature’s blanket on earth.

  10. Thank you, TK.

    I know today is cloudy, but we’ve had A TON of sun in March, and it looks like a lot more sunshine is on the way. It’s too dry, but it’s also a very nice stretch of weather.

  12. Only 50 degrees here. not sure how much higher it will go?
    Perhaps 53 or 54 if we’re lucky. Unlucky, then it stays 50 or tops our at 51 or 52.

  13. Thanks, TK…

    Up to 52 now with a north wind. We had some sprinkles are around 7 am. Cloudy now to the east with blue skies to the west.

    Christmas morning’s temperature was warmer (34) than Easter’s (26).

    Did anyone hear a sonic boom Friday morning between 10 am-11 am? I didn’t hear it in Middleborough, but my brother heard it in Mansfield. In fact, he heard another one at 1 am on Friday morning.

    WBZ and NWS-BOX said it wasn’t an earthquake, but didn’t say what it was. Fireballs entering the atmosphere???

    Anyone know?

    4.0 magnitude quake near Lennox CA this morning.

    1. Thanks, Captain. I do not think we heard anything. Very odd they didn’t say what it was And will look to see where Lenox CA is.

  14. Thanks TK.

    I still see a pretty good opportunity for one or more rounds of rain Friday-Monday, not necessarily overly heavy though. Favoring later in that window for the best chances. SNE is definitely slipping towards drought. I wouldn’t consider warm season long range forecasting one of my strong points. But if this summer plays out like I think it will, drought will again be a factor this year. Has the makings of a long term dry pattern, more of a “slow burn” drought which gradually builds up over several months as opposed to one or two really dry months which quickly get wiped out, like we’ve seen a couple times in recent years.

    1. Thank you, WX. Just got notification of a brush fire 2 miles from here. Always worrisome when it is this dry

      1. Any summer will feature its fair share of heat. I do think this one will be hotter than normal, especially when it comes to extreme heat (for example, I could see SNE having multiple excursions into the mid-upper 90s). But possibly with lower humidity overall as well. Those are just some very preliminary thoughts though. It would fit the typical long term drought profile.

  15. Captain, my son did hear it and said he wondered what it was. He said it was more of a loud/ deep boom than a shaking. He is in lincoln, RI

  16. Thank You TK!
    Beautiful sunny day although a bit gusty here. It is really neat to see the distinct line of solid overcast looking to my east but overhead and to my west not a cloud in the sky. Love weather!

  17. From the USGS website:

    “Booms” have been reported for a long time, and they tend to occur more in the Northeastern US and along the East Coast. Of course, most “booms” that people hear or experience are actually some type of cultural noise, such as some type of explosion, a large vehicle going by, or sometimes a sonic boom, but there have been many reports of “booms” that cannot be explained by man-made sources. No one knows for sure, but scientists speculate that these “booms” are probably small shallow earthquakes that are too small to be recorded, but large enough to be felt by people nearby.

    Large sonic booms can be recorded on the seismic instruments and have lead to some interesting observations.

  18. Not out of the question that the next 4 or 5 potential rain threats essentially graze or completely miss New England to the south.

    Missing those versus getting those essentially means the difference between drought and no drought as we move through spring. As an agricultural meteorologist for many years this kind of monitoring is right up my alley. 🙂

    1. It’s crazy. I was listening to an audio book on the deck around 5:00. I had to take air pods out to see where the noise that sounded like a jet plane was coming from. It was wind in the trees on the hill surrounding the neighborhood

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