Tuesday April 6 2021 Forecast (7:36AM)

27 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 6-10)

The large scale weather pattern continues its omega block configuration that will readjust then redevelop over the next several days. The large low pressure circulation that brought lots of clouds to eastern areas of the WHW forecast area yesterday will move south then east, away from the region, into midweek but will still have enough broadness in its circulation to toss some cloudiness back into our area, especially eastern areas again, through Wednesday. Later in the week, a high pressure ridge will nudge eastward into the region with fair weather with clearer sky meaning chilly nights but days that warm up nicely inland but have coastal sea breezes.

THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Daytime highs 48-55 coast, 56-63 inland. Overnight lows 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 49-56 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation ground fog forming. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57 coast, 58-65 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation ground for forming. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57 coast, 58-65 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 11-15)

Overall tendency is for a blocking pattern regime. A little more evidence today to support low pressure making it close enough to bring at least more overcast and some chance of rain by later April 11 into April 12, and possibly a recycling of the pattern so that we are dry for a few days and see another wet weather opportunity by the end of the period. Low confidence on this and will have to monitor closely.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 16-20)

An overall tendency for blocking continues with our area on the drier side but the mean air flow often from the north and east with no big temperature swings.

27 thoughts on “Tuesday April 6 2021 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  4. Thanks TK.

    Several days ago TK and I talked about uncertainty in the medium-long range forecast. That remains very evident this morning even as the time frame gets closer. If most of the 0z guidance is to be believed, we’re in for an awfully wet 10 days. And yet multiple previous model cycles suggested we’d be nearly bone dry. Don’t put much faith in anything beyond day 3 right now.

    Right now it looks most likely to play out as a dry Friday/Saturday and a wet (at times) Sunday/Monday. But even that is definitely not set in stone, and the uncertainty only grows larger after that…

    1. agreed, the 12z model runs today could be back to a drier scenario. I was a bit amused by the 00z runs.

  6. This beautiful body of water is completely within the city limits
    of Boston. The NW shore is very very close to Brookline, but it is all in Boston. Jamaica Pond (fully stocked with rainbow trout, btw)

    My son took this at sunset last night.

    https://ibb.co/c8W76D8

  9. We have a good amount of blue sky and sun in eastern Marshfield !! 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Makes all the difference in the world.

  12. To WXW and TK’s point the models are not to be trusted beyond 3 days and for sure 5. And yes, they do miss plenty of rain events.

    I have been about negative 5 impressed with the new GFS since they flipped the switch, but it did first hint at a bit more of a northerly extent of precip several days before the ECMWF. We will see what the outcome is but it probably won’t be what either model prognosticates today. (Total aside, but the last few weeks of the prior GFS version had actually been a really good run for that model)

    12z GFS went from 2-5″ of rain in SNE Sunday -Tuesday to about 1-2″ and 12z ECMWF has about the same. These patterns are notoriously slow to breakdown and I would expect this one to be too, so continue to consider slowing the precip onset timing. By the same token, if we do get grayer, wetter and cooler, it could take a little while to break out of that flip side of the weather pattern.

    A note about temps. Dry ground, no leaves, abundant sun, inland temps have been outperforming guidance by about4 to as much as an absurd 8 degrees.

  13. On this day in 1982, the region was in the midst of an April “powder blizzard”. Boston was snowing heavily on their way to 13.3 inches for a storm total, ending early on April 7. I had 16.0 inches from the storm here in Woburn. The temperature never left the teens on April 7 after being in the 20s during the storm. The snow was completely melted by April 11, which was Easter that year.

    1. Those were good times. A once in a hundred year event. 🙂

      April 5 (the day before) was impressive as well with deep blue skies, brisk wind and chilly temperatures.

    3. As you may have seen on FB, I’ve been digging through old photos. I found one from that date with my oldest and my younger brothers oldest. They are back in the pile but it was fun to see.

  14. Harvey has rain for Sunday . I say darn because I was just awarded another job & I cannot have delays .

    1. We’ve been lucky. Winning the weather lottery basically since the snowy February pattern broke down. Our wet weekend days have been non existent, so eventually it’s going to happen. Although this Sunday … not a lock yet. (See comments from JMA & WxW above.)

  15. I wish I was alive for that snowstorm. From what I hear it was one of heck of a snowstorm for the time of year.

    1. True cold/powder snow event. It was like mid winter, and the arctic cold the next day was impressive. A high overcast with very dim sunshine, howling wind, and blowing/drifting snow all day.

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