Wednesday April 7 2021 Forecast (7:36AM)

26 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 7-11)

The large scale blocking pattern (omega) continues with a slight eastward progression to the set up expected during the next 5 days. Today through Friday the high pressure ridge that makes up the middle of the block will move eastward over New England while the low pressure area that has been doing a cyclonic loop to our east continues to pull away. As this happens, the very dry Canadian air that had come in behind that low Monday and Tuesday will be replaced by air with a little more maritime moisture in it, and this will lead to the advance and development of low level cloudiness that may overtake the sky in much of the region by this afternoon and certain tonight into early Thursday, before it gets eaten away by some drier air and the warming influence of the sun. By Friday, the an extension of surface high pressure should shut off any maritime influx and limit the low cloud potential, so that day should end up clearest of the next 3. The upper pattern continues a slow eastward shift by the weekend, nudging the ridge off the East Coast and allowing the western low pressure trough to approach. It’s still up in the air (figuratively) as to how much impact we see here from the trough and its associated surface low pressure area. For now, introducing the chance of some wet weather for Sunday’s forecast, knowing that it may also be held back from arriving or never make it here at all. So if you are making outdoor plans for the weekend, Saturday is your more guaranteed dry day at this point.

TODAY: Lots of sun followed by lots of clouds. Highs 49-56 coast, 57-64 inland. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Lots of clouds followed by partial sun. Highs 49-56 coast, 57-64 inland. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 52-59 coast, 60-67 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation ground for forming. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60 coast, 61-68 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 42-49. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 48-55 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 12-16)

What was once the western trough of an omega block will likely become the eastern trough of a newly formed omega block during this period and will be over or just east of the East Coast during this period. For us this means no big warm ups but also not that cold, and somewhat unsettled weather, but not likely any big storms either – again fairly typical blocky springtime set-up. Can’t really determine day-to-day details this far out with that kind of pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 17-21)

Only very little change to the overall pattern at most, with possibly a slow eastward drift to the overall set-up again, which may put our area back under a high pressure ridge with more dry weather, cool nights, cool coast & warm inland days. Not high confidence on this forecast though.

26 thoughts on “Wednesday April 7 2021 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  11. so TK I just have to say that you’ve issued another outstanding forecast today. My weather app presented me with a nice sun icon for the day while you noted that we’d start sunny and then see clouds overtake the sky by the middle of the day, and that’s exactly what has happened where I am on the north shore. Well done sir!

  12. Thanks P-DOH! I’ve been working harder lately on my day one and two forecasts which have always been one of my weaker points, contrary to the average forecaster. This has been the case since college….

  13. Once again weather caster on TV news put in awkward position when anchor introduces them by declaring that Boston will be staying in the 60s this afternoon…… Meanwhile the high temperature of 58 occurring late in the morning has now been replaced with a 54 as the wind blows off the water.

    They need to work on communication for teasers / introductions. That information should be correct when it is presented to the viewer. There is no excuse for it not to be.

      1. I agree.
        I don’t expect the news anchors to know the current temperature but if they want them to use that in a tease or an intro then they need to make sure they have the right information.

  14. Another lovely day. I swear the clouds are hanging low enough for me to just about reach up and touch

    1. Not so here. Really feeling ocean effects today. Yesterday, not so much as we made it to 64. We are currently at 56 after a high of 58 at 10:38 this morning.

  15. This was a fairly typical April day in Boston.

    What was not typical, and in fact very unusual, was the fact that a team I wrongly called “wretched” on Sunday after being swept by the Orioles came back to sweep the Rays. First time since the 2012 Yankees that a team loses its first 3 games of the season and then wins the next 3.

  16. The tv mets are starting to now back off on Sunday’s rain.

    I guess this is good news for you SSK?

    1. Saw one who seemed confident of 1 inch plus on yesterday’s broadcast and today is thinking “a few hundreths”. But this is why I don’t really get into trying to forecast amounts at days 4 and 5 (see JMA’s and WxW’s comments on models yesterday).

    2. Good I hade six jobs in agreement ready to roll & another estimate in Duxbury Friday night . Just being a weekend operation I need dry days . This is my 6th successful season underway.

      1. Remember, TV Mets are required to forecast 7-10 days out. Can’t fault them. Don’t fault them. Can’t compare them. But know the forecast may well change

  17. FTR… Just because the TV mets are trending away from the Sunday rain, does not necessarily mean Sunday is going to be dry. I see just as much evidence to go with wet weather as I do to go with dry weather. Flip a coin.

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