Thursday April 8 2021 Forecast (6:56AM)

32 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 8-12)

A moderate to strong blocking pattern will keep a ridge of high pressure parked over our area for the next 3 days, resulting in nice spring weather. With a general light northerly to variable air flow, expect daily sea breezes and cooler conditions in coastal areas while inland locations see a slow daily warming trend. By Sunday and Monday, the block will have weakened enough to allow features to move from west to east once again, but this means the first of a series of low pressure areas will begin to impact the region on Sunday when rain chances increase. How much rain is able to get into the region Sunday will depend on how much dry air there is to battle. While I’m not seeing anything that resembles a heavy rain event, I do expect it to be rather overcast and damp with some rain Sunday into Monday. Any rain we can get will be welcomed as we are running a precipitation deficit of a few to several inches for the year-to-date, are teetering on the edge of a drought again, and continue to see high fire danger with dry ground and the area still pre-leafout.

TODAY: Variably cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 50-57 coast, 58-65 inland. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes by noon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 37-44. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 52-59 coast, 60-67 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation ground for forming. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62 coast, 63-70 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 42-49. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog developing. Chance of rain. Highs 48-55 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain possible. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Periods of rain possible. Highs 48-55, coolest coastal areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 13-17)

What was once the western trough of an omega block will likely become the eastern trough of a newly formed omega block during this period and will be over or just east off the East Coast during this period. For us this means no big warm ups but also not that cold, and somewhat unsettled weather, but more in the form of occasional showers with spokes of energy rotating about the larger upper level system.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 18-22)

Only very little change to the overall pattern at most, with possibly a slow eastward drift to the overall set-up again, which may put our area back under a high pressure ridge with more dry weather, cool nights, cool coast & warm inland days. Confidence remains low on the forecast this far out.

32 thoughts on “Thursday April 8 2021 Forecast (6:56AM)”

  1. Weather 101 … In case you skipped my discussion above, this is an example of something I (and other mets here) have noted on numerous occasions, and this is a perfect time to bring it up as a result of what will be a real time lesson.

    Blocking pattern in place: Three really nice days here.
    Blocking pattern breaks down: Weather goes unsettled here.

    It’s not always the other way around. 🙂

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Much higher launching temperature today.
    Today at 7AM it was 53 while yesterday it was 39. 🙂
    I am hoping for a less intense sea breeze at my location today,
    so we can get into the 60s. Only made 58 briefly yesterday, while most of the afternoon was stuck at 56.

  5. Thanks TK!

    It is sometimes frustrating deciding what to wear here along the coast (city). Winter coat/spring coat/summer jacket? 🙂

    Hopefully as time goes on, the decision will get much easier.

    1. It’s 55 at the airport with a E wind.
      E to NE winds extend well inland all the way back to Worcester, so this is an easterly flow and not just a true sea breeze.
      Amazed I have made it to 59 here being that close to the coast.
      Only 4 degrees better than the airport.

    1. I can relate 🙂

      Much better late morning weather so far today. If I recall correctly, it was about now that it clouded in yesterday until about early evening.

  10. Thank you, TK

    64. Windows and slider have been opened most of Morning

    I saw 40 at 3:00 and as JPD said, not as low as past nights.

  12. Either they’re going to bust spectacularly, or they’re onto something – the Canadian model and the RGEM have temperatures in the lower to middle 70s on Sunday before the rain moves in. Everything else has temperatures in the 40s and lower 50s all day.

    1. Sak what time do you think the rain moves in Sunday as I have a decent size job Sunday morning going on in pembroke.

      1. Depends which model you trust. Some have it in by daybreak, others wait until late afternoon. It’s just way too early to tell.

  13. My Weekend Outlook is up: https://stormhq.blog/2021/04/08/weekend-outlook-april-9-12-2021/

    I touched on the Canadian model difference in there. TK and I were also chatting about it. It’s actually fairly similar to the rest of the models, but the rest of them have the backdoor front come through around daybreak, and the Canadian waits until mid-afternoon. Is a 6-12 hour difference really that much? It just has gian implications for the temperature forecast. Given how everything seems to be moving a bit slower than the models have been showing recently, it’s certainly not that far-fetched. Even the new ECMWF waits until mid-morning to bring the backdoor through now, with temps in the lower 60s ahead of it.

    1. It’s funny when you first told me about the RGEM while I was waiting for my haircut I laughed a bit and then I thought about it … not far-fetched at all. Outlier maybe compared to most other guidance (and only somewhat versus the ECMWF as you noted), but a plausible solution as things have moved slower than most guidance. As you said to me earlier, guidance had Sunday’s rain threat originally timed for Friday night / Saturday … I’d say that’s slower than originally progged!

    1. Thanks Captain. Our swampy type areas are still pretty full but I am noticing the level drop somewhat

  15. I been enjoying the weather as of late here, Not to humid, day time temps in the high 70s to low 80s. I just saw CSU hurricane season forecast along with some of their analog years very similar to what I was thinking for analog years but I was hoping I was wrong lol.

      1. Agree on Florida and the SE coast but not so sure about the eastern Caribbean being low risk. Looking at the analogs and climate models I would be really hesitant to put it low risk.

        2. I’m not confident enough to even speculate much yet. He’s thinking about storms forming very close to Florida and not coming from the CV region.

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