Monday April 12 2021 Forecast (7:17AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 12-16)

It’s mid April, and this week’s weather will very typical of its time. Four out of the next five days will fit into the unsettled category, and you may as well root for rain, because we need it. But will anybody see April snowflakes? The answer: Maybe. We’ll get to that. First, we’ll deal with unsettled period number 1, today and Tuesday, which will largely be a cloud-fest and not so much a rain kind of thing. Yes there is a weakening band of rain stretching from the southwest corner of NH and northwestern MA into the Worcester MA area as of sunrise this morning, but that area won’t do a whole lot other than sit in place and rain itself out as its obliterated by mid level dry air. And speaking of sunrise, early-rises were greeted to a spectacular show of color and clouds in the sky in east central and northeastern MA as well as across much of southern NH. This was able to happen as enough dry air above kept the clouds fairly thin to the northeast and east, while enough dry air got in at low levels to allow the deck of stratus clouds to clear out. But the clouds will dominate today, and some lower clouds are likely to return at least in variable form as the air flow continues to come off the Atlantic. A little more dry air may get into the mix tonight to break those clouds up at least partially once again, but in general the cloudiness will dominate through Tuesday, along with very limited rain chances and perhaps enough low level moisture for a few drizzle pockets closer to eastern coastal areas. The upper level low and its associated southward-squashed surface low will finally pull away by Wednesday, when a weak ridge of high pressure builds in for what I’ll call “the weak pick of the week” – probably not a spectacular day, but likely better than the 2 that came before it and the 2 that will come after it. That’s because another upper low will drift its way eastward to the East Coast by later Thursday and Friday. The center of this upper low is likely to pass just to the south of New England during Friday and Friday night, and associated surface low pressure should be able to get closer to New England than did its predecessor, so we stand a better chance at seeing some beneficial precipitation. Precipitation? That means rain, right? Yes, mainly so. But the air with that upper level low is going to be quite cold above us, and some of our fairly reliable guidance has indicated that it will be cold enough for some mixed precipitation or even a turn to snow, especially in higher elevations of interior southern New England, by later Friday. Whether this happens or not, and if it happens whether or not there is any accumulation can’t really be determined yet, but the possibility is definitely there, and something I’ll be monitoring as we go through the week. So many areas reach the middle to upper 70s this past Saturday and just 6 days later some of them could see snowflakes? Yes, and that shouldn’t surprise you. It may represent a contrast of weather, but that’s exactly “normal” for springtime here in New England.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy light rain north central MA and southern NH mainly early morning. A slight chance of light rain eastern CT and RI. Patchy drizzle possible eastern coastal areas mainly during the afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light rain mostly well southwest of Boston. Chance of drizzle mainly eastern coastal areas through midday. Highs 47-54. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 39-46. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible near the South Coast in the afternoon. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely South Coast. Chance of rain to the north. Areas of fog forming. Lows 38-45. Wind SE to E 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, may mix with or turn to snow some interior higher elevations late day or evening. Temperatures steady 38-45 to start, then may fall slowly. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH coast with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 17-21)

If all goes as expected, we’ll be on the back side of departing low pressure to start the third weekend of April with Saturday (17th) being a breezy, cool, sun/cloud kind of day, although eastern coastal areas may be stubborn to improve at first if enough northeast wind and wrap-around moisture lingers behind that system. High pressure is expected to build in for April 18-19 with fair weather and a warming trend but coastal sea breezes of course. A low pressure system from the west may bring some unsettled weather around April 20 possibly into April 21 before departing to the east as we transition to a quicker-flowing zonal (west to east) weather pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 22-26)

Indications / trends for a more zonal pattern, but only low confidence in this due to questionable guidance and the knowledge that a block can form easily in the spring. For now will go with dry weather to start and end this period with a wet weather threat in between.

41 thoughts on “Monday April 12 2021 Forecast (7:17AM)”

          1. I did watch the Masters. I enjoyed it and it was nice to see a first time major winner. Xander Schauffele keeps knocking on the door at the Masters and who knows what would have happened if he did not hit the tee shot into the water at 16.

  13. I don’t think we have seen Mark in a few says. And our good dr stupid has not been here for a while. I do hope all is ok

  16. Thanks TK.

    Vicki, I am here and have been closing monitoring the GFS the past few days. Living in one of those “elevated” areas of northern CT, I’m becoming very intrigued :re the Friday threat.

    The GFS, Euro, and EPS have a very impressive look for a late season “surprise” in SNE. UKMET as well. This has the potential to be a lot more than a few flakes in interior elevated areas and maybe even some accumulation in lower elevations with some of this falling during the dark.

    This is slow moving with the block in place and the low will be deepening just south of SNE which should bring down the cold air. Euro verbatim is about 18 hours of precipitation. Very interesting 🙂

    1. I was thinking along the same lines, but was very hesitant to post anything. Will continue to monitor. If it just rains, no surprise. If it snows a foot, no surprise either. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. This setup I should note does not look like the 1987 storm which had more of a track up the coast (south to north) and produced heavy snow all the way up into NNE. This one will be sliding west to east south of us….more of a SNE/CNE special.

  18. IF and BIG IF this happens it was on April 18th of last year parts of interior SNE had measurable snow. BDL had 2.4 inches which ended up being the biggest snowfall for so late in the season on record.

    1. I had 4.2″ of snow last year on April 18 which ended up being my second largest storm of the season, lol. Also had 1″ May 8 into May 9 on Mother’s day weekend.

    1. Doesn’t quite make it into Boston. But there is time and these things often have a mind of their own. We shall see.

    2. If this thing reaches its full potential, I would not at all be surprised to see double digit snow totals in the hills of Worcester County, the Monadnocks, Berkshires, etc. and even some accumulating snow in interior valleys. Will be harder to get it in the coastal plain, but not impossible.

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