2:53AM
First of all, Happy Chanukah to those who celebrate it!
After looking overall the available data and trying to solve the puzzle of what to believe and what not to believe, I’ve come up with a best-guess for the weather through Christmas Day. Just going to go out 5 days on today’s blog, and tackle next week in upcoming blog posts.
Low pressure cuts NW of New England today with its associated warm front lifting northward through the Boston area this morning, producing no more than a brief period of very light snow or sleet with no accumulation. The trailing cold front will set off rain showers this afternoon into tonight, but it is not much of a cold front as it will remain fairly mild Thursday, the Winter Solstice, with fair weather. A second boundary will quietly cross the region Thursday evening, introducing colder air from the north. This will set the stage for a mix of precipitation turning to snow (especially NW of Boston) Friday morning, as a wave of low pressure moves rapidly east northeastward just south of New England. This will not be a major system. Colder air will continue to drain into the region behind this departing feature, and a strong disturbance in the upper atmosphere coming along on Saturday (Christmas Eve) may set off additional snow showers. Sunday (Christmas Day) will see another wave of low pressure passing south of New England. The air should be cold enough to support some snow, assuming precipitation makes it far enough north. Influence of the ocean means that mix/rain may be involved mainly south of Boston. This system is still far enough away that tweaking of the forecast will likely be required.
Boston Area Forecast…
TODAY: Cloudy. A brief period of very light snow/sleet may occur mainly pre-dawn. Developing rain showers this afternoon. High 45-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Low 40-45. Wind shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind W 10-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. A mix of rain and snow possible after midnight. Low 35-40. Wind shifting to N and decreasing to under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with mix to snow north and west of Boston, mix and rain to the south, during the morning hours, with snow accumulation of up to a few inches possible, especially in areas that see mostly snow. Partial clearing and some sun in the afternoon. Temperature falling to 30-35 in the morning then returning to 35-40 in the afternoon. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers developing. Low 25-30.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers, especially in the morning. High 35-40.
SATURDAY NIGHT – CHRISTMAS EVE: Partly cloudy. Low 22-27.
SUNDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow north of Boston, rain/mix/snow to the south. High 33-38.
Thanks TK, excellent as always !!!
Yesterday returned the above normal temps, as all 4 major reporting stations were above normal. 3 of the 4 were 6 to 7F above normal and I believe it was TF Green that was only 3F above normal. I think we are about to tack on two 10+F above normal days, today and tomorrow.
Have a good day all !
I think that 50F to 55F on Thursday is going to be too much to “recover from” for the late Thursday night – early Friday morning event, particularly in and around Boston. If the latest model runs are correct, the Christmas day/night event are now in serious question. I really can see Logan and the nearby suburbs coming away with no measurable snow out of all of this.
Today cloudy with afternoon rain. highs in the upper 40s
tonight cloudy evening showers lows in the low 40s
thursday sunny and warm highs in the upper 40s to low50s
thursday night increasing clouds i think it takes a while for the cold to come in so precipitation will be in the form of rain. temps dropping into the low 30s
friday Icy mix highs in the upper 30s
friday night mostly cloudy a chance of snow showers lows in the upper 20s
christmas eve and christmas day looks dry with partly cloudy skies with highs seasonal in the upper 30s lows in the 20s
Still seeing signs of a storm for christmas but i do not see it being that bad and looks to far south right now on 2 reliable models.
interior should mnitor their forcast for this friday As there is a a chance of light snow accumulations.
something looks interesting for the middle of next week but looks like it would be rain. 🙁
Mainly rain for Boston to Providence with both systems, still don’t see any different
Melissa’s forecast on BZ this am was a little confusing. I think she indicated 1-2″ of “slushiness” well north of the Pike for Friday and traces of snow elsewhere. She seemed to call for a miss on Xmas but had a question mark next to it.
Maybe an indication of how difficult it is to make a concrete forecast right now.
That storm on the 29th on the 00z Euro looks pretty good. Sunday’s storm is still up in the air, and Friday’s system remains to be seen.
Call me nuts but the nam is still showing snow for Friday for alot of areas from Boston burbs north. Not sure what to think for Sunday.
Seei live sw of Boston, where r u hadi
Good morning and Thank you TK for your great explanation
I’m reading that you are all losing confidence in the fact that there will be much if any measurable snow Sunday – is that correct? I was going to start making Plan B today just in case but not sure we need to worry as much about that now.
6z gfs is warmer than 6znam. north of pike and west of 495 looks pretty good for 2-3″ of snow I think, maybe a spot here or there closing on 4″ if mositure is there. Taunton’s comment on dry air aloft has me concerned for a bust on this call but I’ll stick my neck out.
tough call inside of 95. (what else is new right)
Boston might squeek out an inch or so
take a look at the NAM with precip type for hour right before 54 and after… All snow for most of SNE.
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0
Link Didn’t take. I’ll post it.
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.32270&lon=-71.08470&zoom=4&type=hyb&units=english&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=NAM&mm.type=PRECIPTYPE&mm.hour=54&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&ib=1&dd=0&tfk=0&ski=0&stormreports=0
remind me OS how you link them? Thanks
On the Weather Underground site when you have the exact map you want with Zoom, map type, model and hour, you click on the link on the right towards the top.
It is beside Save Preferences and it has the word Link
along with a little Chain Icon. Click on that and it will
open up a new window. Copy and paste that window’s
url and you are in business.
Hope this helps.
Have a great day. I will be unavailable from about 11AM until this evening some time.
thanks!! will do
retrac I would take the NAM at this time range, higher resolution etc….
I’ve leaned more that way.
I believe it will snow in Boston. How much sticks is the question.
Providence, South of Plymouth…not so sure.
I figure Mass Pike North should stick
Charlie I am in JP.
oh ok, close to the same weather as me
Taking a look at 0z EURO ensembles and it has a benchmark storm…. Nothing is off the table
still huh
and here is the ensembles
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=148324
Very close Charlie, you are Foxboro, right?
Yeah
I know retrac.. very surprising to say the least. I will say this has been the timeframe that the models seem to lose a strom just to bring it back within 72 hours. Take last December’s storm 4 days out and it was OTS and we know the rest.
My Ugh meter is rising rapidly….
Disappointed that the main event “looks” destined to be a FISH storm.
Perhaps something in the range of 1-4 inches Friday, depending??????
I wonder if the Sunday storm will reappear? Now that the Euro has it out to sea,
Who knows. I’m sorry, but not impressed with the Euro ensembles either.
Here is what I see:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfenstropical500mbSLP120.gif
I hope the EURO lost the storm or is this a case where the EURO comes around to the GFS.
Little worried here that the fish get our storm over the weekend.
I with you JJ. Unless things change in a hurry. In addition to all of the above,
please note:
GEM has no Sunday storm
UKMET has no storm
JMA does not have storm
DGEX has not storm
The UGH meter may have to increase from the 5 it is at now.
I think it is on the rise!
Even if it does snow on Friday, will it still be around on Sunday?
That is a good question. I suppose it depends upon how much it does
snow.
Btw, all the Mets last night were downplaying Friday and indicating
Sunday would be mostly rain.
I think they are underestimating Friday and who knows about Sunday???
Right now Sunday looks to be a storm-free day.
I think there will be some surprises on Friday..Once the NAM is within this time range it has been spot on. Not sure how we can argue with it. Let’s see what today’s runs have as I think it will be set after today.
Not sure what to think of Sunday, still surprised to see the ensembles of the EURO showing a storm eventhough the ops is OTS.
Hadi,
That Euro ensemble storm isn’t much of one. I have been watching
the Euro ensembles since the October storm. I could be wrong, but
in general, the Euro Operational has been pretty much on target as opposed
to the ensembles.
If my understanding is correct, Each ensemble run has a parameter(s) changed a small amount to see what affect it has on the run. Presumably
the ensembles are designed to shake out any possible errors in initiation.
When conditions are right, it almost mirrors the operational, but most times
it is a totally and completely different result.
Just some thoughts.
The EURO had Irene and the Pre Halloween Noreaster.
Waiting to see what tune the 12z NAM sings about the Friday system and the NAM was the model that nailed one of the storms we had last January.
Agree, The NAM close in has been deadly, except for maybe over cooking qpfs.
The Euro has been deadly as well. Unless the 12Z Euro changes, say Hi to the Happy Fishes! Lol
NAM is running right now….
OS i am not sure enough about the subtle differences so know the biggest difference. I was just pointing it out as a thought
I know. No problem. Hope everything comes around.
Looking at NAM now for Friday.
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.34250&lon=-71.06770&zoom=6&type=hyb&units=english&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=NAM&mm.type=PRECIPTYPE&mm.hour=54&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&ib=1&dd=0&tfk=0&ski=0&stormreports=0
You got it. Looks like 06Z NAM at 54 hours. yes?
Now we need to compare to 12Z NAM. btw, 12Z NAM seems to be
Cooking!!!
12Z NAM is in for Friday’s event.
Qpf is down from previous runs. Also it looks to rain for a bit at first and then
transition to snow. I would guess Boston gets around an inch or so and that is
about it.
One more thing. The NAM hints at about a whole day’s worth of Ocean Effect snow
all over very Eastern sections, including Boston. NWS also suggests this as well.
Not sure how much, if any, will accumulate from this. Perhaps it will be stronger
than NWS and NAM suggest????
We shall see.
I am giving a 1 for areas that see snow on Friday since I don’t think amounts will exceed 4 inches.
Look at hour 84 on NAM and you can see system in Texas, not sure if that is what we are looking at for xmas day, slowed down timing wise, but there is energy there.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F21%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
Hadi,
We are thinking the same! Here is the 500MB vorticty chart for the 12ZNAM
at 84 hours. There CLEARLY is something left in the tank!! Question is:
Will it go out South of us? OR turn the corner and come up at us?????
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F21%2F2011+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
Difficult to be concrete with anything. However, Thursday night reminds me of the December 7th – 8th storm this year. NAM is handling this event very similiar to that one, only this time producing less QPF. It moves very fast, offers a brief period of impressive frontogensis at H7. It also rapidly cools the atmosphere and drops surface temps precipitously. The NAM did this in early December and forecasters jumped on it and issued unwarranted advisories and warnings in Western MA and Eastern NY. The storm is moving so fast with a significant opportunity for rapid drying making its way all the way to the surface and the NAM seems to have missed that and missed it on the 7th-8th as well. The biggest difference was on 7th-8th this was all happening with much more QPF to work with at ~0.7. This time NAM is pretty uniform with only ~0.3 from BOS to ORH to CEF. With less moisture, marginal temps, rapid drying, I can’t say I have confidence in a forecast for any significant snowfall for Thursday night and Friday morning in most areas of SNE.
I wonder if that another POTENTIAL storm system sometime towards the middle of next week.
I be surprised if the NAM showed anything different for the weekend storm than the other models are showing. I think by late tomorrow or Friday will have a better idea for the weekend storm and to me when you have low pressure on the east coast it needs to be watched.
Thanks JMA!! Glad to have your insight!! Any thoughts on the weekend storm or lack of?
From the NWS at Upton NY:
GFS/ECWMF BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIVERGE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON. ONE THING THAT IS COMMON TO ALL SOLUTIONS THOUGH IS THAT THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST STORM SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS…EITHER WILL PASS WELL TO THE S /ECMWF/ OR IS NOT FORECAST TO EXIST AT ALL /GFS/…AS A RESULT HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT.
Well the NAO forecast is beginning to look better. We’ll see…..
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html
So there is a chance winter may begin or resume depending on if you had the dumping of snow from the Pre Halloween Noreaster in January. This so far is the most encouraging sign from the NAO although needs to be taken with a bucket load of salt.
What we would do to get that NAO to tank…
The NAO is forecast to spike during the next few days, which pretty much kills any chance of Sunday’s system from materializing.
It is frustrating…
We have to wait for the stratosphere to warm, which is on going and should help us out with the snow storms for January.
This is 240 hours
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t50_nh_f240.gif
This is today
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t50_nh_f00.gif
The reason you gave about the NAO spiking is why I was skeptical about a weekend storm. Good job by the NWS out of Upton, NY pointing that out in their discussion a few days ago.
I would be surprised if the 12z EURO and GFS have this system for the weekend.
12Z GFS offers more qpf for Friday, however, it is somewhat warmer than NAM, so
not sure how much rain there would be first before snow, IF any snow at all. Just interesting that qpf is up on this run. If it were to verify and we could somehow get most of it to be snow, then we might just have ourselves a white Christmas. Given the history so far this year, I would say odds are against that. We shall see.
I can’t believe how warm it is today, this is crazy, it’s almost 50 degrees here and beginning to rain, I think with the ground so warm that even if we receive a coating up to an inch or so it’s gonna be gone rather rapidly.
History & Almanac High Low
December 21 Average 40 26
December 21 2010 32 20
December 21 Record 62 (1957) -5 (1942)
There is no real cold air for this system to work with. To me it would have to intensify quickly and manufacture its own cold air.
FWIW…Henry Margusity has 3″ of snow for Boston on Friday and NO snow for Christmas Day due to +NAO.
NOTE: Henry will return on Friday (if anyone really cares, Lol.) 🙂
I wait with open arms for him!!
🙂
What will we ever do without Henry. LOL
My daughter’s road test is scheduled for Friday morning in Melrose. I guess it’s Murphy’s Law that dictates that the one day in this mild December that we actually might see snow will be Friday! And of course even if it’s only an inch or two RMV will likely cancel road tests!
My optimism for some Christmas snow is waning. It’s not out of the question, but most models are not on board. One thing I do like is that even though we’re not getting very cold temperatures next week, at least it will be seasonable. We’re visiting my sister in Vermont, and I expect off-and-on snow showers in the hills and mountains the coming 7-10 days.
Harvey Leonard twitted that Christmas snow is decreasing with a sad face at the end about an hour ago!
Steady Men! We will get our Christmas Snow. If not we can all go to retrac’s house.
You’re all welcome to come over!
Can you imagine what my neighbors would say with a group of weather freakes throwing snowballs at each other tinkering with the snow gun. It’d be tough to explain that away.
🙂
🙂
Let’s take some bets on what the 12Z EURO shows!!
I am thinking the 12z EURO shows a miss and I hope I am wrong.
UGH meter now up to a 6 with the weekend storm.
Minor snow event for Friday.
I will not hesitate to throw in the towel if the 12z EURO does not have the Christmas storm.
I am rooting on Friday’s storm to deliver the white Christmas.
In the long range, I really don’t know what to say…But I am optimistic about it.
Hadi, put me down for a blizzard approaching benchmark where it under goes intense bombogenesis that dumps 24 to 36″ of snow with 5′ drifts over most of the area expect Foxboro. There it will be an amazing 50 degrees with a light south westerly wind with rainbow colored ice cream sprinkles silently falling from the sky.
LOL !!
🙂
Just curious: I know it rained last Thursday, but did it technically speaking rain last Wednesday at all (late pm)? If so, I believe we’re on a fairly incredible streak of Wednesday rain. If I am remembering correctly, the streak goes back before Thanksgiving (maybe even two weeks before).
From Henry:
Euro now has the low in the western Gulf of Mexico xmas AM. Upper level low over western Texas
Is that the same system slowed down or another one trying to form???
This is what I am hoping to be singing to the 18Z Runs this afternoon.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sz2W3QfXnHc
(Sorry, I have been dealing with the flu and a 103 temp last 3 days so I am a bit loopy at the moment)
Coastal I hope you are feeling better and no one else in your family gets it from you.
Feel better Coastal!
Thank you guys. I am feeling much better today than over the weekend. Can’t wait to play with my kids again.
Coastal that was classic!! Where is Charlie when we need him:)
🙂
nice coastal.
Darryl Hall had on of the great mullets of all time didn’t he!
I saw it, it’s hilarious, a great laugh
From NWS regarding Friday storm..
REGARDING THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI STORM…WE SAW THE 12Z NAM WHICH
IS EVEN COLDER AND BRINGS ACCUMULATING SNOW DOWN TO NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST…AND SREF PROBS ARE ALSO BULLISH FOR SOME SNOW.
HOWEVER…GFS IS WARMER AND CANT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION. WILL PROBABLY LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF NAM/GFS PENDING
REVIEW OF 12Z ECMWF.– End Changed Discussion —
12z Euro gives a quick dousing of snow for much of interior MA, northern CT and RI, but it doesn’t make it to the south coast. Looks like several inches possible. The Sun/Mon storm is a complete miss and the storm next Wed looks interesting, but mostly rain based on this run.
Hadi – great find on the wunderground site by the way. Any idea if it has the capability of showing total accumulation over a longer period than 3 hour increments?
Mark I tried to find that and have not been able to.
I think the EURO has snow from about Boston NW with a swath of 1-3 maybe 2-4 inches from what I can see.
That’s what it looks like to me as well….could be enough for a white xmas for many though. I am on the fringe here in northern CT though I have the 700′ elevation working for me!
If your up in elevation either in the Northwest or Northeast Hills in CT you should at the very least see flakes fly if
not accumulate a little on the grass.
NAM has been the coldest so far so I think a compromise between the 3 is the way to go. I still would lean more on the NAM and as JMA pointed above very quick hitting.
Looks like Thursday night Friday is the one to watch now as the weekend storm system will be spent over the fish.
Will see what the 18z NAM shows when it comes out shortly.
NAM coming out
With the exception of some cold rain drops, it is very mild and almost humid in SE Mass with temp and dewpoint both near 55F. Kind of interesting to see the shallow cold holding tough N and W of Rte 128. Of course, thats not happening aloft, for the umpteenth time this autumn, Mt Washington is ridiculously warm at 32F.
55F at 4pm at Logan, 51F at Worcester, 54F at Hartford and 55F at Providence. This has been an unbelievable 3 to 4 months………
Based on the NAM, there will be no marine influence on Friday’s system, so the coastal areas shouldn’t miss out, although SE Mass is questionable.
The lingering moisture around for Saturday should be interesting.
Based on nam and temps on Saturday most should have a white Xmas!
I hope someone could post the 18z NAM QPF
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT…
BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LVL RIDGING AND ATTENDANT SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING FROM SRN ON AND QC WILL YIELD GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER WX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER…DUE TO THE WEEK NATURE OF THE
RIDGE…FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE
FLOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MDL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
MOSTLY DRY LLVLS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THIS…CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH THESE WAVE PASSAGES. HOWEVER…ESPECIALLY
DURING THE SAT TIMEFRAME…A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW PRES WELL OFFSHORE TO SETUP THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NORLUN TROF EVENT ESPECIALLY FOR THE N SHORE. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME WEAK LLVL INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN H92 TEMPS
AROUND -8C AND WARMER OCEAN TEMPS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
AS IT COULD PROVIDE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL IN A NARROW AREA OF
NERN MA AND SRN NH. ALSO…A RESURGENCE IN NLY FLOW WITH THIS TROF
AS WELL WILL COMBINE WITH SOME OF THIS LLVL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL MA /INCLUDING THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS/ GIVEN THE CLASSIC OCEAN EFFECT SETUP. TEMPS WILL
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.
What a difference a day makes. Albeit an interesting forecast setting up for the Thursday night/Firday timeframe, the system looks to be too progressive and compact to provide southern areas with appreciable snow. With a track closer to the southcoast or RI/MA, cold air doesn’t involve southern areas until most of the precipitations has shut off. Yet, we will need to watch for later solutions as the latest models have trended a bit cooler, albeit, with less QPF. Based on the latest projections, the Mass Pike/north and west should see measurable snow fall in the tune of a few inches while south of this line sees up to a coating. The wildcard is the Canadian model which is taking the middle of the road right now. Should it trend toward the cooler NAM solution, one could expect a brief burst of heavier snowfall to include most of SNE exluding the southcoast, cape and islands. Stay tuned!
I am still sticking with a 1 on the Snow Index for the Thursday night Friday system since I don’t see amounts exceeding 4 inches. The NAM according to the NWS out of Upton, NY is considered an outlier.
When we are this close to the event on Friday, it’s hard to ignore the NAM…
We’ll see what kind of trends tomorrow brings.
I agree Scott and to me in this time range the NAM seems most times to have a handle on the situation. Will see what the 0Z runs say later tonight.
the GFS looks a little spunky with the qpf even though it moves right along. Could snow hard where it snows–albeit briefly.
thursday night into friday storm.
3 to as much as 6 inches possible outside of 495 and north of the pike
1-3 inches inside 495 and south of the pike and the usual cooler areas of southeast mass
less than 1 inch on the coast cape and islands
I think here in foxboro we will receive an inch or less, does not look to be a big deal, have a great day everyone, I suspect the inch of snow will not be there Christmas morning. 🙂
Your such a downer Charlie. What happened to positive thinking?
Haha I’m not going to hope on something that just isn’t going to really pan out IMO, believe me if I thought a blizzard was coming I would be very positive, but something like this just frustrates me.
I honestly think around here it will be mainly on grassy surfaces and that I’m not absolutely positive on 🙂
It is going to be one mild evening !! Buffalo still at 50F and temps in northern NJ still near 60F. Is it possible its 55F to 60F in most of Boston and southeast Mass at midnight, as the solstice arrives…..
Tomorrow, I will be watching temps and dewpoints in northern New England. I’ll be curious what Burlington, VT is tomorrow evening. If its not under 35F and doesnt have a dewpoint under 20F, then I think thats a sign the cold air doesnt beat or even meet halfway through the precip. If the upper flow is sharp enough to bring precip into the region from southwest to northeast, that makes me think the cold air doesnt get in here as quickly as the models suggest. On the flip side, that is one cold airmass up near Hudson Bay and I do suppose cold, dense air has a way of spreading out quickly.
Tom. Under the right conditions, cold air can make it into SNE from northern new england in a matter of a couple of hours allowing the -RA/-SN line to quickly collapse toward the coast. Not saying that is going to happen but it happens.
For sure !! I just have this idea that south of the Mass/NH border, the surface temps are in the mid 40s tomorrow evening. Say the dewpoints are in the upper 20s and the clouds are rolling in. The precip starts and the temps fall to 36F or 37F and the dewpoints come up towards 30F or 32F and then getting that next push of cool enough air will be a struggle say south and east of a line from Amesbury to Lowell to Worcester.
Agree!
With the track indicated by some models if there was more cold air in place we could be looking at a MODERATE snow event. Instead were just looking at MINOR event and again I would favor the interior for accumulations.
Completely agree but let’s see what the Canadian model does. If it leans toward the NAM, boston could see a few inches. Yet, if it leans toward the warmer GFS, boston will see flakes. Nevertheless, no guidance is suggestive of a big storm anywhere. The precip comes down fast and furious briefly but is very progressive.
At this point I’ll take whatever snow I can get, but a few inches would be nice.
I am with you on that Scott but its frustrating when you see a track that some of the models indicate and just think if more cold air was in place we could get more snow out of this.
UGH meter for weekend storm at a 9
Be interested when the 0z NAM comes out in about an hour.
Intensifying line of showers (Thundershowers) in northeast PA. Wonder if some towns could get some thunder/lightning later tonight.
There was a high wind report in western PA today and there was even in a slight risk for parts of western PA today. Is this December???
0Z NAM at 33 hours. Snow whole event. .5″ qpf
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.30990&lon=-71.12020&zoom=7&type=hyb&units=english&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=NAM&mm.type=PRECIPTYPE&mm.hour=33&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&ib=1&dd=0&tfk=0&ski=0&stormreports=0
It’s also the 18z run, just to let you know. the 00z NAM picked up on the lack of marine influence, which is good to see.
So that would be like a 2-4 inch snowfall. I am only seeing precipitation to the west when I click on the link.
my bad sorry
I thought I clicked was in the wrong place.
That line of showers continues to intensify and theres also some echos popping ahead of it in central and western Mass.
Must be the front. Maybe passing around 1-3 am. I’ve noticed sometimes the temp spikes at its highest just before passage during the cold season. 56-57F at Logan now, I think its got a shot at 60F around 1 to 2 am. We’ll see.
Special wx statement for portions of western CT for line of approaching t’storms.
Tom I just noticed that and the good part is these are not severe thunderstorms but certainly this line is packing a punch with heavy rain and frequent lightnings. Tracking thunderstorms just hours away from the winter solstice.
Its what makes the weather great……
Absolutely. The way that line looks on radar if this was the summertime and this was coming through during peak heating we would really have to keep an eye on for severe development along the line. Thankfully NO SEVERE STORMS with that line.
There are severe storms now…
GFS is out and looking about the same for Friday about .50 QPF. If the cold gets in quickly we should be able to squeeze out 1-3 in Boston and a little more NW.
I agree with u for the most part, I just think with warm ground and other influences that downtown Boston gets and inch or less, my area here in foxboro probably will receive 1 possibly 2 inches, north and west of Boston gets up to 3 inches but I think those 3 inch amounts come in in places like Worcester. Have a great day. I guess I’ll be positive and say at least it will snow but I can’t resist saying what a terrible early winter pattern, snow to date 12/21/11 1.7 inches
Squall line just passing through here in Coventry, CT with heavy rain, strong winds, and thunder. And it’s 56 degrees. Ridiculous for late December!
Not unheard of. Temp and weather were very similar on 12-17-2000. Nighttime thunderstorms were pretty potent.
Just was woken with thunder. At first I didn’t know what it was – had gone to bed early and didn’t know there were thunderstorms approaching. We just had some loud thunder and heavy rain in Sudbury. Thunder seems to have subsided but it still is raining. I don’t know if there is any wind – I’m still kind of asleep. Doppler radar shows storms breaking up – that is, yellow areas splitting up. I know we can get this weather in Dec. but still it feels weird – especially with Christmas so close. Have a good rest of the night for those still awake!
Still more thunder again with heavy rain. Looked out window – occasional gusts of wind.
Hopefully this is the last we see of this for awhile. Although I’d be more than happy to hear some more thunder this winter if it were accompanied by 3-4″ per hour snow!
Agree! Would like to see some “thunder-snow” this winter.
Acutally – would like to see some snow this winter! 🙂