Friday April 16 2021 Forecast (7:22AM)

152 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 16-20)

Our first significant storm in a while is in progress, and despite the fact that snow grabbed the headlines in most media, even though it is fairly confined to expected areas and seems to be following expecting accumulations, the biggest story with this system is the beneficial precipitation it is bringing, since essentially all of southeastern New England had been categorized in abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions as of the last update. So this will knock that back significantly, though we still need more precipitation to further deplete the deficit. We’ll see how that goes as we move into later April. But for now, it’s this system we have to deal with. And today, low pressure will do a cyclonic loop right over southeastern New England as it is captured by upper level low pressure tracking slowly eastward across there region. The stacked system, which you can visualize as an atmospheric un-stretched slinky, will then drift away tonight and Saturday. It’ll take a good amount of time for it to pull its moisture out of here, and even longer for us to be rid of its cloudiness, but it will happen eventually. Sunday, we’ll be in a westerly flow of slightly milder and mostly dry air, but a weak disturbance will still bring some cloudiness and a slight rain shower chance. For now I’m keeping that shower chance out of Monday’s forecast, a day which will be milder still. And finally the warmest day of the next five will be Tuesday, when we’re in a southwesterly air flow ahead of an approach trough, a day that I think will be dry as the next frontal system and associated moisture will still be far enough west to not impact this area.

TODAY: Cloudy with snow/mix inland areas especially higher elevations, rain most coastal areas possibly mixing with or turning to wet snow at times, tapering to snow/rain showers and areas of drizzle. Total snowfall accumulation for the event expected to be 3-6 inches in highest elevations of southwestern NH to around the MA border, 1-3 inches on mainly unpaved surfaces mostly west of to around I-495, and slushy coatings to an inch possible as far east as the I-95 region mostly from I-90 northward. Highs 38-45. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coast with gusts 30-40 MPH possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and areas of drizzle. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain showers and/or drizzle eastern coastal areas, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a slight chance of a passing light rain shower. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 56-63 South Coast region, 64-71 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 21-25)

A strong cold front is expected to move across the region from west to east April 21 which will itself be mild with rain showers, followed by much cooler but dry weather April 22-23. Moderating temperatures but rain chances go up again later in the period based on expecting timing of the next area of low pressure from the west in what will be a more zonal (west to east flow) pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 26-30)

Continuing a zonal pattern idea but with a mean trough in eastern Canada and the northeastern US opening the door for some additional shots of chilly air. Overall pattern may trend drier again.

152 thoughts on “Friday April 16 2021 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  1. Good morning and Thank you TK.

    41 here and a long way from any snow. 1.05 inches of rain so far and pouring rain.

  5. Interesting. Within the last 20 minutes or so, temperature
    here has dropped from 41 to 39. Dp down to 37.

  6. Thank you TK!
    Snowing moderate to heavy, with the temp at 31.8 and hasn’t budged since 1:00 am. We have about 3 1/2 “ on the ground, and the pavement and streets are covered. Well so much for the newly swept streets the sanders are back out.

  7. Thanks TK

    A little over an inch in South Sutton. Less on neighborhood roads but a solid coating. Temp at 33 and still snowing.

  9. Thanks TK.

    Moderate to heavy snow here in Coventry CT and 33F. It’s a winter wonderland out there. Just measured a little over 2″.

    Just drove the kids to school and the roads were terrible. I am very surprised there wasn’t at least a delay.

    Many accidents reported on I-84 from Vernon CT up to Sturbridge and I-395 from Plainfield to Worcester as well.

  12. Snowflakes mixing in up here in North Reading…temp fell 4 degrees in the last 45 minutes to 37

  18. Have a new toy set up here (Ambient) , 1.15 inches of rain, and 35.2 degrees with snow coming down.

    1. Hi Hadi. New equipment. Awesome!

      Watch the temperature in full sun. See if it reads a bit high.
      Does it have a radiation shield?

  22. Ground, car tops and house roofs are all now SNOW covered.
    Snowing very hard here. I would call it HEAVY snow!

  23. Our school district canceled today. Lots of hilly narrow backroads that become very slippery in this type of snow.

    1. I’m surprised we did not postpone. We have the same type of roads. But I do think the accumulation on the roads didn’t begin until most of buses were at school.

      Do you have remote or the day off?

      1. Full day off. I think the reason being is that the elementary students are back full in person and have returned some of the borrowed lap tops for remote. The High school goes back full in person after next weeks spring break.

  25. Smaller flakes now, but still really coming down.
    My street is now covered, however, sidewalk is still just wet.
    Weird.

  26. Flakes mixed with rain in quincy the past half an hour. I love show snow that has no chance of gathering! I get a show at work with no cleanup!

  27. Thanks, TK.

    Good morning!

    All rain so far in Middleborough. Winds are steady and moderate and have picked up in the last hour.

  31. Still snowing moderately, not heavy any more.

    Temperature 34, dp 32

    Everything is snow or slush covered.

  32. 3″ here in Coventry CT now and still snowing. My friend who is a half mile away at a slightly higher elevation is approaching 4″.

    It has lightened up a bit as we are now just outside the heavier precip shield.

  34. Radar trends: slow wind-down and decay underway. It’s going to take about 24 hours…

    2. Sutton also. Big flakes and heavy that are just now getting smaller but still moderate in intensity.

  39. Still sitting at 0.2 here. Maybe can stretch it to 0.3. Snowing (some mix), hasn’t accumulated for over an hour.

    1. Even though it has been snowing quite hard, accumulation is hard to come by.

      Reasons:

      1. Warm ground and it is melting from ground up as it falls
      2. High sun angle and it’s effects

      Even so, we are close to 1 inch on the grassy surfaces. Certainly 1 inch or more on the car tops where there is no
      melting from below.

  45. Over to snow and sleet in Middleborough in the last half-hour.
    Sidewards precipitation with gusty winds. Quite impressive!

  51. JP Dave did your son realize he caught the Celtics themed paint job on a jet blue plane? They just broke out a Red Sox version and I have seen the Bruins one before. Not sure about Patriots or others…

  54. Co-worker in Killingly (far NE CT) has been getting pounded all morning with heavy snow and is approaching 6″. He has heard several branches snapping in the woods around him.

    I drove west and down in elevation into the office here in Manchester CT and it flipped to rain shortly before I arrived here. There was maybe an inch on the ground and that has since mostly melted.

    Snowing hard again back home in Coventry as that heavy band has pivoted back in from the NE.

    1. Interesting how too often during the winter, your area gets shadowed, and yet in spring you get the jackpot snows. 🙂

      1. Yep, the recent shadowing has been a bit of bad luck as we are higher elevation and east of the CT River valley where the traditional shadow happens.

        But in the Spring definitely, the elevation helps in the storms where the temps are marginal.

  59. Still shaking my head why not even an advisory from the NWS in Tolland and Windham Counties. Going to end up with a widespread 3-6″ and isolated higher amounts.

    1. Mid 30s is rather cold for a mid April day. It feels cold outside, too. I went for a walk at the height of the snow coming down and it felt very chilly. I think the snow was mixing with sleet at a certain point, which means the cold air was trapped pretty close to the surface. Sidewalks were very slippery and slush-filled. Cars were covered with snow. I had to brush off snow to reveal my parking sticker.

      We may have a repeat scenario next week. We’ll have to wait and see.

      I’m still waiting (also hoping) for something like this to happen in June.

  63. I missed out on this one but am enjoying seeing the pics on twitter and reading the comments on the blog. If this is the last snow event I missed the bookends the Halloween Eve snow and this one.

    1. JJ makes a good point about bookending storms. Suppose this is the last of the snows this season, then we’ll have had almost 6 months of snow events. Not a lot of snow this year, but a lengthy season.

      1. BOS will have below normal snowfall but not by much. Worcester I believe above normal snowfall. BDL slightly above normal with 41.2 inches. As I said before winter 2020-2021 will not be a memorable winter when it comes to snow but certainly not a dud.

  66. These are days I love weather in CT. A snowstorm going on in northeast part of the state and other places cloudy drizzling some heavier showers.

  67. I just saw BOS with 0.1 inches. Right now we have a tie with NY and BOS with 38.6 inches for the season. The report came in at 249pm.

  69. So that 0.1 is probably the final total. I guess it will be a tie as there is no way to settle this one. When you have a tight race every tenth of an inch matters.

      1. Yes 🙂

        Nothing bad coming up in the post.
        It’s just editorial time and time to educate. It’s not even so much for the people that are regulars here. You all pretty much know everything that I’m going to talk about, minus maybe some statistical tidbits. It’s more for the people that find it on Facebook.

        I saw a lot of misinformation and misunderstanding going around about the weather today and it’s time, as a meteorologist, to do my part to help folks understand some things. 🙂

  75. Jean, just saw your response to my question. You are in my old stomping grounds and an area near and dear. As you know, I grew up in Belmont. But Mac and I had an apartment at Captain Parker Arms in Lexington

  76. Epic satellite imagery from today’s storm:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_04/20211061816_GOES16-ABI-ne-GEOCOLOR-1200×1200.jpeg.73d235a62a4c5d4ccd2f837cf51d849d.jpeg

    And here’s a loop…..

    https://twitter.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1383162306859823110?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1383162306859823110%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FMatthewCappucci%2Fstatus%2F1383162306859823110%3Fs%3D19

  80. My brother said the guys on sports radio (not sure which station) were beside themselves because of this “highly unusual April snowfall” … They may want to read my blog tomorrow too so they can learn how common April snow actually is, among some other bits and snippets.

  83. This ain’t the last of the snow, and certainly not the cold, for New England if the long range models are correct. Two more cold shots that could break records over the next two weeks if the GFS is correct.

    Euro and EPS touting a coastal storm threat at Day 10 as well.

    1. I was just going to ask TK if the BOS-NY “snow” game ends in a tie like spring training or if there could be “extra innings”.

  84. This is going to end in a tie or BOS will win. It is quite unlikely NY will see any more measurable snow to add on to their total for this winter.

  85. JPD wrote: “cold pool with 500 mb low, often the secret to Spring snows.”

    My question is: Could this happen in summer? I know it would be highly unusual. But in my lifetime I’d like to see a June or July snow event. It’s kind of on my bucket list.

      1. I imagine only Mt. Washington as the only location in NE (and probably the Northeast) to have actual snow for all 12 months of the year at one time or another.

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