Sunday April 18 2021 Forecast (8:11AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 18-22)

It’s been a “slow improvement” weekend as we were expecting, and today will definitely be better than yesterday, but don’t expect full sunshine. With cold air aloft and yet another disturbance to pass by, we’ll still see lots of clouds at times, and possibly another passing rain shower or two. But overall, not a bad mid April day in comparison to the last couple of days. Still on track for the early-week warming but there are a couple of forecast wrinkles to deal with today. First, a small but vigorous disturbance which I hadn’t sniffed out as of yesterday’s update reveals itself to be a shower and thunderstorm threat late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening as it works on some moisture and instability in the region. This small feature will be moving fairly quickly eastward and has the ability to trigger a shower or storm in a few locations especially near and south of I-90, favoring eastern CT, RI, and adjacent southern MA, late in the day Monday. And then a low pressure area moving rapidly eastward across southeastern Canada will send a cold front toward the region Tuesday. It will still be mild ahead of this front, but I’m not quite sure yet how far east that boundary comes. So the mild day may be replaced by a chilly evening or nighttime for areas at least north and west of Boston. We’ll have to monitor that front. I do think that any rain shower activity with that initial front will stay to the north of us. Stronger low pressure trailing this one moves eastward and its center will also pass north of us by Wednesday evening, but this time there will be more moisture available, so I’m expecting a decent round of rain showers sometime Wednesday between the middle of the day and the evening. This day will still be mild ahead of the cold front, but a sharp temperature drop is likely to occur with the passage of that front, setting us up for a blustery and chilly Earth Day on Thursday, possibly with lots of cloudiness on the back side of what will then be pretty strong low pressure in eastern Canada. We may even see some scattered rain and/or snow showers on that day…

TODAY: Variably cloudy – times with more sun, times with more cloudiness. Chance of a passing rain shower but dry conditions most areas most of day. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A late day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly southwest of Boston (eastern CT, RI, south central MA most likely locations). Highs 54-61 South Coast, 61-68 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early evening mainly southwest and south of Boston. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 57-64 South Coast region, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48 northwest of Boston, 49-54 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH may shift to NW north and west of Boston.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers arriving from west to east during the day. Highs 61-68 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain showers move out, partial clearing follows. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny then mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and/or snow showers. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 23-27)

A zonal (west to east moving) weather pattern is expected to be dominant, but with the mean trough position being in eastern Canada and the Great Lakes to northeastern US with the tendency for temperatures below normal. Best chance of wet weather comes from a disturbance about April 24.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 28 – MAY 2)

The idea is for a similar pattern to continue, mostly west to east flow, but we do have to watch for rapid evolution of blocking pattern at any time. For now, overall idea is below normal temperatures and drier than average. Added pattern volatility potential from the interaction of a former western Pacific typhoon as its post-tropical remains interact with the jet stream heading into North America.

36 thoughts on “Sunday April 18 2021 Forecast (8:11AM)”

  3. Mark, I just saw your comment from yesterday. I am constantly confused by the determination of schools out this way. You are right it is Whitins intermediate but like you, I don’t quite understand

    I’m still trying to figure Sutton out. It has early learning which is k-3 or maybe 2 and then elementary and I’ve lost track of the grades in middle and high. And we are working on changing those.

    1. In Coventry, K-2 is the grammar school, 3-5 is the intermediate school, 6-8 is middle and 9-12 high school. Growing up in NY we had k-6 as elementary and 7-8 was middle. Seems to be no rhyme or reason from one district to the next though I am sure the towns population plays into it.

      1. You seem to have the same that Sutton has. I grew up with k-6, 7-9, 10-12. Then our high school burned when I was a senior so we went back to jr high ….go figure

  4. Good morning and thank you TK. I do not want any more chilly weather. I am done with it! BUT, it looks like I’ll have to endure more.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Looks like remainder of April will be blustery at times and on mostly on the cool side. Also appears the mountains will continue to add to their snowpack.

    1. I’m going to pass on agreeing that we can even come close to making that a definite. But he’s certainly entitled to that meteorological opinion. 🙂

      1. Well, in all fairness, the newscaster directly asked if this was the last snow, baited him like most newscasters do. 😉

        1. Oh that happens all the time. 🙂 And it’s fine if he thinks it’s the last snow anyway. That’s up to him. Odds are in his favor. But weather doesn’t care about odds, so I’ll play history on this one, with a hint of the upcoming pattern’s influence. 🙂

  18. This was posted on FB. I can’t share the link since it is a closed group and while a friend shared with me, I cannot comment.

    I’m going to copy and share the photos but am really interested in input here. Below is post

    In 2008, Gavin Pretor-Pinney, founder of the Cloud Appreciation Society, argued that we need a new classification of cloud.

    For years, individuals from across the world have taken pictures of the unusual formations, trying to figure out what they were. But they had no official name.

    In 2017, on World Meteorological Day, The World Meteorological Organization finally recognized new clouds in the updated version of the International Cloud Atlas, though the name has been tweaked to “asperitas.” They’re the first new addition to the Atlas in over half a century. It happened nine years after the classification was first submitted.

    Gavin Pretor-Pinney described the formations as “localized waves in the cloud base, either smooth or dappled with smaller features, sometimes descending into sharp points, as if viewing a roughened sea surface from below. Varying levels of illumination and thickness of cloud can lead to dramatic visual effects.”(c)

    The best way to describe these clouds would be if you jumped into the ocean wearing goggles, swam down 5 to 10 feet, and looked back towards the surface of the water.

    Asperitas clouds are especially rare.
    How asperitas clouds form is still being researched.

    Photos taken by me in Natick and Framingham, 04/15/2021.

      2. Love it. Love clouds. Thanks for sharing.

        At times even today’s skies features lots of different kinds of clouds.

        On hot July day as a cold front (triggering T-storms) approaches, I enjoy watching the layers of clouds form and move across the sky.

        1. Agree. I went through a drawer full of old photos recently and was surprised how many photos I’d taken of just clouds.

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