Vicki, the reason I think that fully vaccinated people shouldn’t be required to produce a negative test is based on the recent CDC data. 5,800 infections among 77 million fully vaccinated people. This changed my mind. It’s a very small chance. In fact, there’s a slightly higher chance someone who’s had the MMR vaccine against mumps, rubella, and measles, winds up with measles. Yet, we certainly don’t require people to produce a negative measles test when they enroll in public school, for example. Just having the MMR vaccine is sufficient.
You are right to point out the possible role variants play in the decision-making. It appears vaccines work well against most variants concern. There isn’t enough data on how well they work against P.1. Once this data analysis is completed, i would hope we would lift the negative test requirements on fully vaccinated folks.
CDC considers 3% to be “quite rare,” see passage below on MMR vaccine and chances of contracting measles. With a fully vaccinated person against coronavirus the percentage who contract the virus is much, much smaller (at least for the mRNA vaccines); so extremely rare (5,800 divided by 77 million).
Here’s what the CDC says about MMR:
Although it is possible to get the measles even if you’ve been vaccinated, it’s quite rare: Two doses of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine are 97% effective at preventing contraction of measles, according to the CDC. This means that about 3% of people who receive two doses of the measles vaccine will get measles if they are exposed to the virus.
It’s not clear why some fully vaccinated people get measles, but it could be that their immune system did not respond properly to the vaccine, the CDC says. Still, if a person is fully vaccinated, and they come down with measles, they are more likely to have a mild case of the illness.
So, here I disagree with Fauci. He’s technically correct to say one can transmit the virus if fully vaccinated. But, the word “can” doesn’t imply even remotely likely. I don’t hear public health officials warning schools that “you never know, Johnny, who got the MMR shot, might still get measles and pass it on to Sally.”
UK is now banning all travel from India, as it adds India to the red list.
I don’t agree. I think a combination of lockdown and vaccinations did the job; and I don’t know the weight we should attach to either.
I would agree that it is a combination of the two. As for weight, I figure he knows that better than we. Still it seems to me the vaccine has made a difference in the older population here. Although as you know, numbers in schools are increasing to higher numbers that they were at the start of this year. These children/young adults to home to someone.
Thank you, Joshua, for your well reasoned explanation.
As I suspect you know, my view is a bit different; but not totally.
I have not compared Covid to flu or any other virus. This is because it stands by leaps and bounds over the others. Surely all are deadly. Covid tops the list as you know by far more.
MMR, DPT, TB. etc are one or two or three vaccines and done as children. I had to be tested for my immune level to several when some of my grands were born to see if I needed any boosters. Even at 72, my system still carried the immunity I needed. And they don’t – possibly with rare exceptions – mutate….except for Flu. And flu certainly causes deaths, but we know it is far less deadly.
This is a sentence I focused on in your comment. “There isn’t enough data on how well they work against P.1.” You concluded with once we have enough date then…..
Even with enough data on P.1., there is another variant waiting in the wings. Right now we have double variants showing up even in this country and we simply do not know whether they will be able to break through the vaccine.
I will absolutely agree that folks do not need a negative test to travel……once we are absolutely certain the there is a small number of folks who are being infected despite being fully vaccinated. (Not percent as percents to me do not represent people.) I agree with Fauci that we simply are not there yet.
As an aside and not related….where was the flu this year. No question mark as it is a rhetorical question. I think there are two main reasons. One….the obvious ….is masks. Two…not as obvious…parents who normally send kids to school with flu were not able to ….at least in the large numbers that have always existed. I am aware parents sent kids with covid or with known exposure to immediate family members who had covid. The numbers just didn’t come close to what they are year after year prior to 2020.
Why would parents intentionally send their kids to school with Covid?
If I had even a slight temperature, my mother would keep me home.
Same reason they send them with the flu. I know of several and that is in a small area.
Philip, my mom did the same as did I and as did my kids. And we all stayed home. Our superintendent has shown controlled frustration during three separate meetings because of this.
Vicki, I very much appreciate your thorough and thoughtful comments. It’s so important to hear a variety of perspectives.
I sure agree. It is why I greatly respect yours. There are no right answers since we have never been here in our lifetime. So we really need to share views.
To Vicki’s point, CDC just put out guidance on travel to India:
Because of the current situation in India even fully vaccinated travelers may be at risk for getting and spreading COVID-19 variants and should avoid all travel to India.
Gov Lamont just announced today that all business restrictions in CT will be lifted on May 19. Restaurants can return to 100% capacity with no table limits or curfew times and bars that don’t serve food can re-open. Movie theatres can go back to 100% capacity.
As far as masks, there will be no more outdoor mask requirements after 5/19. Lamont was more wishy washy about indoors but implied that requirement may be lifted as well for fully vaccinated people.
Positivity rate holding the 2’s here with 490 in the hospital statewide. 61% of all adults age 18 or older in CT have now received at least their first shot.
Thanks.Mark. I have had the sense …based on very little…that CT is doing better than MA.
Joshua. I know the cape had the highest concentration of P1 in the country a bit ago. I have no idea if that holds true.
A curious question. I was chatting with a younger person today who has chosen not to have vaccine yet. She said something that caught my attention. When younger she had a reaction to the TB vaccine.
I mentioned on here about 10 days ago that I had the same reaction to the covid vaccine (covid arm) that I had to the TB vaccine in high school. They thought o had TB so needed further testing
My friend today said she had heard there is a link. I just looked and the CBG vaccine for TB does have a Immune response link. Joshua…do you or does anyone have any more info on this?
BCG. Not CBG
C-19 for 4-20 is ready.
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Vicki, the reason I think that fully vaccinated people shouldn’t be required to produce a negative test is based on the recent CDC data. 5,800 infections among 77 million fully vaccinated people. This changed my mind. It’s a very small chance. In fact, there’s a slightly higher chance someone who’s had the MMR vaccine against mumps, rubella, and measles, winds up with measles. Yet, we certainly don’t require people to produce a negative measles test when they enroll in public school, for example. Just having the MMR vaccine is sufficient.
You are right to point out the possible role variants play in the decision-making. It appears vaccines work well against most variants concern. There isn’t enough data on how well they work against P.1. Once this data analysis is completed, i would hope we would lift the negative test requirements on fully vaccinated folks.
CDC considers 3% to be “quite rare,” see passage below on MMR vaccine and chances of contracting measles. With a fully vaccinated person against coronavirus the percentage who contract the virus is much, much smaller (at least for the mRNA vaccines); so extremely rare (5,800 divided by 77 million).
Here’s what the CDC says about MMR:
Although it is possible to get the measles even if you’ve been vaccinated, it’s quite rare: Two doses of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine are 97% effective at preventing contraction of measles, according to the CDC. This means that about 3% of people who receive two doses of the measles vaccine will get measles if they are exposed to the virus.
It’s not clear why some fully vaccinated people get measles, but it could be that their immune system did not respond properly to the vaccine, the CDC says. Still, if a person is fully vaccinated, and they come down with measles, they are more likely to have a mild case of the illness.
So, here I disagree with Fauci. He’s technically correct to say one can transmit the virus if fully vaccinated. But, the word “can” doesn’t imply even remotely likely. I don’t hear public health officials warning schools that “you never know, Johnny, who got the MMR shot, might still get measles and pass it on to Sally.”
UK is now banning all travel from India, as it adds India to the red list.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says lockdown is responsible for drop in cases, not vaccinations. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/lockdown-covid-19-cases-pandemic-boris-johnson-b929418.html
I don’t agree. I think a combination of lockdown and vaccinations did the job; and I don’t know the weight we should attach to either.
I would agree that it is a combination of the two. As for weight, I figure he knows that better than we. Still it seems to me the vaccine has made a difference in the older population here. Although as you know, numbers in schools are increasing to higher numbers that they were at the start of this year. These children/young adults to home to someone.
Thank you, Joshua, for your well reasoned explanation.
As I suspect you know, my view is a bit different; but not totally.
I have not compared Covid to flu or any other virus. This is because it stands by leaps and bounds over the others. Surely all are deadly. Covid tops the list as you know by far more.
MMR, DPT, TB. etc are one or two or three vaccines and done as children. I had to be tested for my immune level to several when some of my grands were born to see if I needed any boosters. Even at 72, my system still carried the immunity I needed. And they don’t – possibly with rare exceptions – mutate….except for Flu. And flu certainly causes deaths, but we know it is far less deadly.
This is a sentence I focused on in your comment. “There isn’t enough data on how well they work against P.1.” You concluded with once we have enough date then…..
Even with enough data on P.1., there is another variant waiting in the wings. Right now we have double variants showing up even in this country and we simply do not know whether they will be able to break through the vaccine.
I will absolutely agree that folks do not need a negative test to travel……once we are absolutely certain the there is a small number of folks who are being infected despite being fully vaccinated. (Not percent as percents to me do not represent people.) I agree with Fauci that we simply are not there yet.
As an aside and not related….where was the flu this year. No question mark as it is a rhetorical question. I think there are two main reasons. One….the obvious ….is masks. Two…not as obvious…parents who normally send kids to school with flu were not able to ….at least in the large numbers that have always existed. I am aware parents sent kids with covid or with known exposure to immediate family members who had covid. The numbers just didn’t come close to what they are year after year prior to 2020.
Why would parents intentionally send their kids to school with Covid?
If I had even a slight temperature, my mother would keep me home.
Same reason they send them with the flu. I know of several and that is in a small area.
Philip, my mom did the same as did I and as did my kids. And we all stayed home. Our superintendent has shown controlled frustration during three separate meetings because of this.
Vicki, I very much appreciate your thorough and thoughtful comments. It’s so important to hear a variety of perspectives.
I sure agree. It is why I greatly respect yours. There are no right answers since we have never been here in our lifetime. So we really need to share views.
To Vicki’s point, CDC just put out guidance on travel to India:
Because of the current situation in India even fully vaccinated travelers may be at risk for getting and spreading COVID-19 variants and should avoid all travel to India.
Gov Lamont just announced today that all business restrictions in CT will be lifted on May 19. Restaurants can return to 100% capacity with no table limits or curfew times and bars that don’t serve food can re-open. Movie theatres can go back to 100% capacity.
As far as masks, there will be no more outdoor mask requirements after 5/19. Lamont was more wishy washy about indoors but implied that requirement may be lifted as well for fully vaccinated people.
Positivity rate holding the 2’s here with 490 in the hospital statewide. 61% of all adults age 18 or older in CT have now received at least their first shot.
Thanks.Mark. I have had the sense …based on very little…that CT is doing better than MA.
Joshua. I know the cape had the highest concentration of P1 in the country a bit ago. I have no idea if that holds true.
A curious question. I was chatting with a younger person today who has chosen not to have vaccine yet. She said something that caught my attention. When younger she had a reaction to the TB vaccine.
I mentioned on here about 10 days ago that I had the same reaction to the covid vaccine (covid arm) that I had to the TB vaccine in high school. They thought o had TB so needed further testing
My friend today said she had heard there is a link. I just looked and the CBG vaccine for TB does have a Immune response link. Joshua…do you or does anyone have any more info on this?
BCG. Not CBG
C-19 for 4-20 is ready.