DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 19-23)

As we begin another week we find ourselves in a continued active weather pattern. We have milder to warmer air moving into the region today into Tuesday. But it is still cold enough aloft for an unstable atmosphere, and this will be aided further by a small but potent disturbance moving eastward into southern New England later today through this evening, triggering the development of a few showers and possible thunderstorms. Not expecting widespread activity or any severe weather with this though. Tuesday, low pressure moves rapidly eastward across southeastern Canada and sends a cold front toward the region. We’ll warm up nicely ahead of this front, which will barely make it across part of the region before it comes to a halt and is pulled back to the north as a warm front ahead of another approaching low pressure area. This low will also pass north of our area Wednesday, pushing a sharper frontal boundary into and eventually across the region, maybe needing to wait for an additional low pressure wave to form and move along it. This day will bring our best chance of widespread rainfall over the next 5, in the form of a solid band of rain showers ahead of the front, maybe with an embedded thunderstorm. The snow that will be on the back side of this front as it is travelling through NY will be destined for northern New England, not the WHW forecast area. But we will be visited by the cold air behind the front, along with wind, for Wednesday night through Thursday. We may see a decent amount of cloud development Thursday due to even colder air aloft, but right now I’m leaning toward any disturbance passing by to not be enough to produce the rain and snow showers I had previously mentioned, so going with a dry forecast. High pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic States by Friday, so we’ll still be breezy here between it and low pressure in eastern Canada, but not as windy as Thursday, and a little less chilly as well…

TODAY: Partly sunny. A late day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly west of Boston (eastern CT, RI, central MA most likely locations). Highs 54-61 South Coast, 61-68 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early evening. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 57-64 South Coast region, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48 I-95 belt northwesward, 49-54 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W-NW for a while overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny early then becoming mostly cloudy. Numerous showers arriving west to east and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 62-69 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain showers move out, partial clearing follows. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny then mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 24-28)

A zonal (west to east moving) weather pattern is expected to be dominant. Iffy on timing of low pressure and a rain chance in the April 24-25 window, leaning toward late April 24 to early April 25 but subject to change. Drier, chilly behind that, then moderating temperatures by later in the period as Canadian high pressure eventually sinks southeastward to the Mid Atlantic.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 29 – MAY 3)

Idea for now is that a zonal pattern will continue, but again we’ll need to watch for rapid reconfiguration of the pattern including the possibility of a return to blocking. Will monitor for the interaction of the former western Pacific typhoon energy with the jet stream heading into North America.