Thundery Solstice

187 Comments

12:22AM

As of this writing, it’s raining hard and thundering just around midnight at December 21 turns to December 22 and the Winter Solstice takes place (12:30AM). Not very common…

All of the action is associated with a cold front pushing into an unseasonably mild and rather humid (for December) air mass. Things will quiet down overnight, and a fair and still mild day is expected Thursday.

Colder air will filter in from the north Thursday night as a wave of low pressure moves in from the southwest. Precipitation is expected, probably starting as rain then turning to snow in the Boston area, continuing into Friday morning, with minor accumulation. This will move out by midday. A disturbance coming through on the back end of this wave will create scattered snow showers Friday night into the daylight hours of Christmas Eve (Saturday).  A second surge of energy may be responsible for a few additional light snow showers Saturday night and part of Christmas morning. The storm threat for Christmas Day is pretty much gone. The computers had some trouble with this feature, bringing it too far north initially. We are entering a period of weather where a flatter-flow dominated by the northern jet stream means drier weather with just some temperature swings during the final week of 2011, though some southern stream moisture may try to get involved around the middle of the week for a brief time.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Thunderstorms ending west to east early followed by partial clearing. Temperature in the 50s early, cooling into the 40s later. Wind W up to 15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Rain arriving late, changing to snow from NW to SE. Low 30-35. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow ending in the morning, accumulation of 1 inch or less in most areas, with a few isolated amounts over 1 inch possible north and west of Boston. High 35-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Low 25-30. Wind NNE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. High 35-40. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT – CHRISTMAS EVE: Partly cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Low 20-25. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers through mid morning. High 35-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 45.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 42.

187 thoughts on “Thundery Solstice”

  1. Thanks, TK for the update. Rain has kind of subsided here in Sudbury. Looks like rain is ending out in Berkshires according to doppler radar. Strange weather continues – and on winter solstice! I am looking forward to snow – it will come – at some point- right? 🙂

    Have a good night!

    1. Haha rainshine these systems just seem to go poof right before our eyes, it’s just so freaking frustrating. Merry Christmas and happy new year

  2. Hi tk great blog, I gotta say I don’t think we’ve ever agreed more,,, I totally agree on an inch or less, I just can’t be positive about this, what happen to winter,, jj what’s the ugh meter at? A 10? Ugh!!

  6. Burlington, VT is 36F and peeking at a surface map shows temps in the upper 20s a couple of hundred miles north into southern Canada. Then, the temps dramatically fall to single digits, above and then below zero.

    Will be interesting to watch how cold and dry it is in northern New England later this afternoon. If Burlington, VT is in the upper 30s to low 40s later today, then I think light amts of local snow wont happen. If its nearer to 30F and the dewpts are under 20F, then it may be an interesting night after all.

  7. Can’t believe I am going for my am walk and the temp where I live is 51.

    To make matters worse, the family asked me whether I thought we would be able to have our holiday dinner outdoors this year. I am not a fan of the UGH-o-meter, but I have to say UGH.

  8. Good morning. I thought I heard thunder in the night. I tried to stay awake but it didn’t work. Flurries on Christmas Eve and Christmas day are perfect – Christmas snow.

    1. Now I know why I woke up around midnight. I never wake up at that time. My daughter said there were tremendous claps of thunder but the first one our neighbor (who was outside at the time) said had to have hit in our back yard or just beyond in the woods.

    2. Hi Vicki, Tried to do the same, but was out cold moments after my head hit the pillow! I love a good Nor’easter, but thunderstorms are definately my fave!

  10. Looking at the latest nam it looks slightly milder than yesterday esp when precip begins, I think this has an inch or less on grassy surfaces, ground is to warm and storm is moving fast. My area in foxboro could come away with rain changing to a little snow but never has time to really stick, I think I’m lowering my totals to a coating for Boston to Providence with isolated 1 inch amounts

  11. It is one heck of a nice morning. Hard to believe we’re at the new year and my lawn looks as nice as it did at the end of September

    1. Same here. I’m a little concerned that my hydrangeas are going to have problems come spring. Just a few days ago they were budding up like it was May, and that was before the latest warm spell. Usually wrap them in burlap for the winter months, but afraid they’ll cook if I do now.

  13. I will post when it’s in timeframe. Not that I disagree with your thinking this morning let’s just see what is says.

  15. Good morning. Unfortunately, this storm just doesn’t get cranking until it’s far beyond us. Temperature profiles may be just cool enough to support a rain quickly changing to snow; however, there is just not enough QPF to generate appreciable snows anywhere except for north of the pike. Oh well. Our time will come.

  16. To add to your most recent thoughts on the milder NAM……Burlington, VT temp is rising….its up to 39F from 36F earlier this morning and Watertown, NY is still 40F.

  17. I hear ya Charlie! Very frustrating to say the least. Who knows maybe we go all winter without snow at this rate. Urghhhhh I am annoyed:)

  18. today: partly sunny and warm highs in the upper 40s to low 50s
    tonight: becoming cloudy with rain late lows in the low 30s
    friday: mostly cloudy rain with a chance of snow less than 1 inch of snow highs in the upper 30s
    Friday night : partly cloudy slight chance of snow showers no accumulation. lows in the mid 20s.
    saturday: mostly cloudy highs in the upper 30s
    saturday night mostly cloudy lows in the low 20s
    christmas day mostly cloudy highs in the mid 30s
    christmas night becoming partly cloudy lows in the mid 20s
    Monday sunny and windy highs in the upper 30s
    Monday night partly cloudy lows in the upper 20s
    tuesday partly sunny warmer highs in the mid 40s as the wind will be coming from the southerly direction.
    tuesday night increasing clouds
    wednesday A possible storm could give a chance of snow and rain durring the morning and will change to all rain by afternoon highs will be in the mid 40s. If it does not happen it will be partly sunny with a cold front moving though cooling things off .

    I might be able to put my snow guns on friday night and again saturday night so i can try and get my sleeding area workable again. the rain really melted the snow that i had have made the past 4 days. so i will try again and hopefully gain more snow so i can allow the younger kids to use it after Christmas so they can use it durring christmas break. Right now its not safe.
    wednesday

  19. less than 1 inch of snow across eastern mass and south of the pike.
    up to 3 inches outside of 495 and north of the pike . the highest amounts in the higher terrain.

  20. During this blog writing I was at a friend’s on Woburn’s west side when a +CG struck about 2 miles away. I was on the highest hill in town. Surprised that the cable TV towers just above us didn’t take a strike.

  21. Re: Weekend Storm, Not to beat a dead horse, but the 0Z Euro DOES, indeed, have a storm, but it is off shore. Where everything has been tracking MORE north and west,
    I am wondering if there will be a change in this???

    http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.32270&lon=-71.08470&zoom=4&type=hyb&units=english&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=117&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&ib=0&dd=0&tfk=0&ski=0&stormreports=0

      1. From NWS, Upton NY:

        STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM A COASTAL STORM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MAINLY
        LONG ISLAND BEING CLIPPED BY THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE STORM…FOR NOW WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON…THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SE 2/3 OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRY ELSEWHERE. IT APPEARS FOR NOW THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH SUNDAY THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN…TRANSITIONING TO SNOW NORTH OF LONG ISLAND SOUND…AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.

      1. So far not looking good and it will stay that way until the
        NAO tanks. Let’s hope that the forecasted Stratospheric
        Warming allows that to take place!

        1. Thanks Old Salty for keeping hopes alive. That storm is just too far away for any major impacts and even if it did make it this far north, there is not enough cold air in place. What we are lacking hear is cold air and amplification of the pattern due to +NAO:(

    1. Not to burst your bubble,

      But 12Z NAM takes precedent over the 0Z Euro. 0Z NAM had
      us in the snow as well and now it does not.

      Perhaps it will change???

  24. I hear ya OS, hoping I guess.

    Also Joe Bastardi is still thinking something for Sunday/Sunday night. Not throwing in the towel from his tweet!

    1. That is very interesting. Also see my posts above. Here’s hoping…….
      I wonder if the 12Z Euro will show a Westward shift? That would be a nice
      trend.

  25. Would love a westward shift but marginal boundary layer still doesn’t mean snow should the storm come closer. There is not a lot of cold air to create a big storm or even snow for that matter:(

  27. “THERE IS A NEGATIVE EPO!! the trough east of Hawaii means the system in the southwest should come out.. The model cant figure out how to handle this. Should it suddenly lets say tomorrow say. heh alot of this is coming out, then you have a strong northern branch digging right at a system that heads for the mid atlantic states.” – JB

    1. Probably Sunday. Interesting, none-the-less. Time will tell.

      Oh, well, in the meantime, let’s hope rain transitions to snow more rapidly than expected and enough accumulates to give us a white Christmas. Othewise it will be brown and/or green. lol

  29. You and me both OS!!

    BTW here is the GFS for 12/26 much close then previous runs, phase just misses.
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20111222%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_096_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=096&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F22%2F2011+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    1. Yes, close.
      Look at this 12Z GFS 500MB chart at 96 hours:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F22%2F2011+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=096&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      here’s betting that the 12Z Euro has a system CLOSER than the one depicted
      on the 0Z.

      Getting more interesting again!!

  30. Looking at the long range I just can’t be that positive bc yes some intrusions of Colder air comes in the beginning of the year but I still see the milder air try’s to come back the 2nd week of jan, like I said I’m trying to not be negative but when I look at the models in long range I just don’t see any sustainable cold air or a complete pattern change to winter. Imagine if we get through jan and enter feb with just a few inches,, wow!!!

      1. I’m no pro, I only have 1 yr of college in weather/meteorology but just glancing over different long range models I don’t c much, again believe me I want that 1 in 100 yr blizzard to come yesterday. 🙂

  32. It’s so weird I just had some family friends say thank you for no snow, can u keep it going for another month, I said maybe, I’m just going with it haha 🙂

  38. BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
    GFS correcting west with upper feature for weekend. Not over yet for Christmas snow in northeast.

    1. ARGGGGGGHGGGGGGG!()+@#&*()!*@(#*~&!@#*(!#&(!^@#

      It was an old run. Please totally and completely disregard the above
      post and any following mention of GEM!!

      So Sorry!!!

    1. Remember, this is a 3 hour increment. To view previous 3 hours type: J
      For next 3 hours, type: L

      Looks like NO SNOW in Immediate Boston area for tonight!!

      This run still has weekend’s storm OTS. Will post

  42. Those Euro runs are close. Closer than 0Z run as far as I can tell and coupled with the
    GEM, I dunno. I think we “MAY” be in for a SURPRISE! Am I all wet????

    1. Forget comment about GEM. Not valid.
      However, the Euro is closer. I still “think” that something may happen.

      We shall see.

    1. I think you are probably correct, Unless the colder air aloft moves in more
      quickly and the falling precip cools the column down to the ground.

  45. I’m planning on a cookout tonight. I just emailed the person we are renting from for January (it’s a new house to us) to make sure they have chairs out in case we want to sit on the beach – and also that their grill stays out all winter. We grill all winter here anyway but the way things are we may host a cookout 🙂

    1. I think that it is virtually hopeless for tonight and almost as bad for the weekend. Ho Hum! There is always NEXT YEAR!!! lol

  47. I can feel it cooling down a tad. There seems to have been a shift in the wind direction (I think). Temps have dropped a few degrees in Brighton, now at 51. Still darn nice for Decemeber 22!

    1. Just thinking the same thing. Btw a 3 hours (4PM) it has the 850MB 0C
      line just about to the Boston area and by Bostn by 7PM. That might be an
      early sign of a change????? let’s watch and see.

      1. Nah,
        It started pushing South and then came to a grind halt and even
        starts moving north!! Kiss it good bye!

  50. Will be dreaming of a White Christmas this year unfortunatley. The system tonight more rain than anything else with maybe some flakes flying in the interior. Weekend storm is for the fish.

    1. Just kidding around JJ. I know what you mean.
      I think interior areas may end up with several inches.
      Immediate Boston area, a little or NOTHING at all.
      Waiting for the Weather Underground maps to see progged precip type.

        2. Weather Underground 18Z NAM precip type keeps it
          ALL rain in Boston for the entire event. Hope it is wrong, but probably not, considering the current high
          temperatures to overcome without a REAL shot of cold
          air moving in.

  53. Montreal, Canada 37F…..Burlington, VT 44F. I’d be thinking these two reporting stations should already be colder, now, if snow was to be in play in the area, even north of Boston later tonight.

  56. I’m not even sure it’s gonna snow inside 495 or south of the pike now, and not to be a party pooper but I think between Christmas and the New year is gonna be snowless also, it’s when we get into Jan that we could see our 1st snowfall of the winter season. I hope everyone has a great night 🙂

    1. Charlie,

      Again, I think you are correct. Hey I think I may even miss my regime date
      change of 1/2!!! It may be later than that still, altough there is still time for it.
      Lol

  57. In 3 months chances r good it could be the same temp as today and everything beginning to sprout for spring, what an unbelievable yr, I’ll b back later as I got shopping to do.

  58. Here to stay for a little while……..looking closer at the surface airmass, the dewpoints are in the mid 30s throughout all of New England. That very cold air really hasnt progressed at all today in southeast Canada. Its losing the race and I am suspicious of any snow accumulating south of the Mass/NH Border. When the precip starts, the temps cant fall that much if the dewpoints are this high.

    1. The precip itself will have to cool the column and that takes pretty heavy
      precip. It will come down pretty hard for awhile, but not progged to do the job.
      Have to hope for a surprise.

          1. Thanks Tom.

            Hey all, In case it wasn’t obvious, on any of these
            WunderMaps, Over on the right where it has
            Model, Map type and Model Run time, one can
            SELECT the MAP TYPE. Click on it and see all of the possible selections. I invite you to click
            on the 850MB map. It has temperatures.

            During this whole event, 850MB temps in Boston Area are BELOW FREEZING, at least
            giving us a chance.

            I now it is NOT forecasted to change, but with
            those temps and the intensity of the precip, it
            could bust through and mix and/or flip to SNOW.

            Something to look for….

      1. It pretty much sums up why tomorrow’s event won’t be snow, even when the storm is traveling to our south.
        Not sure why the NWS is giving my area 1-2″ of snow.

      2. When many are really ready for spring in March, it will be negative NAO, 25F out and snowing every other day. No weather reasoning, just Murphy’s Law.

  61. As I said yesterday the positive NAO is the grinch here and preventing us from having a White Christmas this year. Hopefully winter will show up in January.

  62. Interesting, I think there’s a concensus for Alaska over the next several days to turn much colder than normal. That in turn usually floods most of the US with mild Pacific air. I wonder if on the mild days, how many 50F days are coming during the last week of December and the first week of January.

    Also, as of now, the hi/lo at Logan is 57F/(51F !!!!!!!!!!) I know it will be cooler by midnight, but as of now the temp anomoly for today is +21F. (+18/+25)

      1. yes, its amazing. I actually do like some snow, but I’m equally intrigued by this stretch of unusually warm weather. I think I’d be frustrated by cold, dry weather where its cold enough to snow, but doesnt. That would drive me nuts. But this anomolous warmth I also find very interesting.

  64. Tim Kelley said he expects snow showers Christmas night, is that from a front or the storm getting closer?

  66. Sorry I live here bc of the seasons and to go into my closet this morning and put on short sleeve shirt is bull!! I so wanted snow for my little boy to enjoy, heading to central Maine next week maybe I can see a flake there.

    2. That stinks hadi, I can remember being a kid and getting excited and then something like this happens, merry Christmas, and going up to Maine can only increase your chances, happy new year

  68. Joe bastards still not quiting on Xmas storm, below is his tweet from 1 hr ago.

    GFS correcting west with upper feature for weekend. Not over yet for Christmas snow in northeast.

    1. Very very interesting. I think there may be a surprise this weekend.
      But I’m never right, so who cares! lol

    1. Yes, See my post/link above. Line of Bright Red with two (2) TORNADO
      WATCH BOXES. This juicy air is FEEDING our storm system for tonight.
      I think that is why QPF is up on the latest run. If only it were colder…

      1. Will do. Wonder if those storms speak to the strength of the SE Ridge and how much warm/humid air is down there….and….if this little system ends up not only inside of the benchmark, but maybe btwn Nantucket and Cape Cod because the models have the SE Ridge too weak.

        1. I don’t know about that, although the GFS has it tracking a bit farther North than the NAM.
          It sure does speak to the MOISTURE available to this
          system.

          If only we had a true artic High planted to our North!!
          A quick hitting dump of 6-10 inches for sure!!!

          1. I cant remember the last time New England had an arctic high to its north. Where, for example, its 20 to 25 below in northern Maine and the cold air is draining down the coastline, so its in the teens in Boston………..I think its been at least 2 or 3 years. For all the snow we got last year, I think most of those storms were dynamic storms that went south of us due to blocking, but it was never tremendously cold before or after the storms.

  72. Does the the NWS really have to tell me about a Bermuda high in late December!! Urghhhh

    BROAD SCALE RIDGING COMBINES WITH PERSIST BERMUDA HIGH SETUP
    THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. INVERTED RIDGING FROM THE SW SUGGESTS A
    SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS…PARTICULARLY FOR LATE DEC.
    MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR BROAD SUBSIDENCE…KEEPING THE PASSAGE OF A
    WEAK COLD FRONT MOSTLY DRY TUE NIGHT. H92 TEMPS REMAIN GENERALLY

    1. It’s not as uncommon as some people may think. It just doesn’t usually get that label when it happens.

  74. The Bermuda high should be brief, must be why the AO and NAO are forecast to spike. Then after that period we shall see where we are at with the stratospheric warming underway.

  75. Thankfully this is not summer with the Bermuda or we would have 3 H weather. No 3 weather since it is winter but more of the same with this mild temperature regime.
    Winter Where Are You???

  76. I’ll be updating shortly after 9PM tonight.

    A couple notes: Not much accumulation Friday, and maybe nothing in most of Metro Boston. Watch wind direction Saturday. Snow may penetrate a bit further inland than last week’s event. Sunday’s northern stream shortwave is probably underforecast by most guidance and is going to be pretty potent. Should bring some snow showers. If it moves faster than progged, we need to watch a very quick phase with a weak southern stream system and rapid cyclogenesis not far offshore. Not going with this now but I have seen this scenario before. And if it did occur out there it would be cold enough…

  77. 1. Is the worst of winter (Pre-Halloween storm) already behind us?? 🙁

    2. Boston’s snow total so far 2011-12 = 1.0″ 🙁

    3. Boston’s least snowiest winter = 9.0″ (1936-37) 🙁

    4. No real pattern change for January? 🙁

    5. Wait ’til next year = 2012-13?? 🙂

    1. Don’t think this will be the least snowiest on record
      Hoping the Farmers’ ALmanac and Old Farmers’ Almanac are right for once with the OFA calling for a blizzard
      at the end of January and the FA calling for a heavy wet snow of 12 plus inches between the 20-23rd of February
      Pattern Change in January hopefully
      Next winter starts with a bang according to FA.

  79. Wrote yesterday about the reason I did not see much in the way of snow for tonight even though some were jumping on how cold the NAM was. The NAM can really struggle with a cold bias particularly when observed weather is significantly deviates from climatological norms. Because of this it bring cooling too rapidly to the surface. Lets look at the weather right now. Dew Points are in the mid 30’s to 40 across the region. That is going to limit the potential for evaporational cooling. You add to that critical thickness temps are still far far too the north, i don’t see snow reaching advisory levels even where advisories are issued in Western MA an Worcester County. I think about 2000 feet is the best shot (and not a very good one) at hitting the 3″ advisory level and everybody below that will be trending to absolutely nothing in metro areas and valley locations. Agree with TK on Saturday for deeper inland penetration of the snow showers. Don’t really see the phase potential for Sunday. The GFS is moving the system far too quickly. Prefer the slower NAM/International models. The GFS has been too fast on everything this year. Although it is doing a far superior job to the NAM in handling temps and critical thickness issues in this anomalous pattern. For me the model jumping and waiting for the next run in this pattern is just pure folly. Check out the observed weather, the bufkit soundings, radar trends. It goes a long ways in massaging increasingly suspect model data. As we get closer HRRR/RUC are better bets than the NAM or GFS.

  80. Thanks JMA. I think the issue is you and TK are far superior at analyzing more than most of us who are amatures so we rely more on models. I know a fair amount about patterns, bufkit sounding. radar etc.., but get confused as to what to look for. I have done some meteorology classes but am not confident enough. So I guess what u am saying is that I would like to learn more but need help from the pros.

    1. Hadi. I’m with you. In my opinion, it is much more fun to analyze the model runs. It gives us snow lovers hope but it’s not realistic hope. The analysis of model runs should not solely be relied upon. JMA is correct. Everything must be considered to make an accurate forecast.

  81. Hadi – Some of its real simple and you know far more tuned-in than you give yourself credit for. Like I said, look at dew points, look at the surface temps in Burlington VT or Syracuse NY for 3 hours, etc. Could a storm lose lots of its front end precip due to dry air aloft? Where do dry slots usually form? Is this the kind of storm that rapid low level drying could take place?These are all things the model suite absolutely blows donkeys at figuring out. For larger pattern issues, is there is a large high over North Central Canada? A ridge in the west or the Southeastern US? Look at recent model performance in simiiar patterns. Yesterday I referenced the NAM’s performance during the Decemeber 7th – 8th storm. All things you know how to do!

    1. Very true and I do that! I guess the models give us something to look in the future and hope for snow:) now when is the next run! Lol.

  82. Well, its 8pm an its 51F at Logan. Here come the clouds, its in the 40s in most of the rest of the region. Assuming the precip holds off until after midnight, I cant see Logan much below 45F. If the lowest Logan gets is 45F, that will be a +19F anomoly for the day. I am personally rooting for 47F or better at midnight to secure a +20F anomoly for the day. Given that its for the 22nd, it would nearly raise the monthly avg temp by 1F in one day this late in the.month. Unreal !!

  87. Direct quote below….

    Better gift… GFS phasing trough on east coast for Christmas event.. look for continued westward trend

    1. Continued westward trend as in through the Great Lakes?
      00z NAM coming out now, we’ll see how it handles that.

  89. What a bummer look at all the precip on the NAM. Any cold air and we would be talking a quick hitting 10 inches!!

  91. IF everything pans out we can see the precipitation start as rain for most changing to a mix of snow and rain to snow outside of 495 with a mix of snow and rain inside of 495 . snow accumulations of 2-4 inches in the high terrain of central and western mass with some 5 inch amounts in the berkshires. the lower elevations outside of 495 and north of the pike will see up to 2 inches. areas inside will be lucky to see it change to snow. If the wind becomes more of a north west wind than a north northeast wind then the change will come quicker but its unlikly and since i live in billerica ma i am not happy. not to mention the snow that i have made with my snow makers have melted tremendiously i think i lost 2 or 3 inches of it the sleeding hill i have made is not safe at all as it has bare spots. hopefully it freezes over and i can make more snow for it. I think its fun when the snow melts a little and then refreezes as the hill becomes faster but i try to make it as safe as i can for the younger ones. this time last year i was shoveling snow into the base this year i am just tring to keep it going:/
    hopeful that winter weather starts in january but i am worried as strong ridges look to be forming where we do not want them.

    1. Matt…I now have a bad feeling for January as well. Perhaps we get that pattern change delayed still around late January (when we normally have a thaw) or early/mid-February for some very late winter minor snows.

  92. The 00z NAM definitely has something going on at the end of the run with that strong shortwave, although no phasing occurs.

    1. “Nothing to see here” Jimmy…unfortuately. I believe Bastardi is wishcasting more than anything else. 🙁

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