Friday April 23 2021 Forecast (7:23AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 23-27)

Alright, you got by the “retro-winter” day yesterday with temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s, gusty wind, and snow showers around. Today will be a piece of cake, despite still being on the windy side. With much more sunshine today, but still a few passing clouds later, after a cold morning we’ll see a decent temperature recovery so that some areas reach 60 this afternoon. This will be occurring as low pressure pulls further away in eastern Canada and a high pressure area slides across the Mid Atlantic region, then offshore by tomorrow when we warm up even more. Low pressure will be approaching the region quickly though and will impact Sunday, making it a weekend split for weather. But the trends on recent guidance have done with this system what a lot of systems have done, and the indication is that this low will have a slight disconnect with energy it could phase with to its north, and be moving rather quickly, not quite maximizing its potential for precipitation. We’ll still get some beneficial rain from it, just not as much. Either way, that system is gone by Monday, a day which will be about half way between yesterday’s weather and today’s weather, cool and breezy, but not too cold, and without the snow showers – just dry weather with a sun/cloud mix. By next Tuesday, we’ll be in what will be the start of a new blocking pattern when things slow down again, once again with high pressure on top of us – the start of a dry & warmer stretch of weather…

TODAY: Sun & passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts up to 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 65-72, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 47-54. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Temperatures steady 47-54 or may fall slightly. Wind E 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with lingering drizzle and possible rain showers early, then breaking clouds overnight. Lows 37-44. Wind N 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 28 – MAY 2)

A weak blocking pattern is expected with high pressure parked over the East Coast, resulting in fair and warmer than normal weather April 28-30, with some coastal areas being cooler each day. Low pressure may position itself south of New England by the first couple of days of the new month, turning the wind more easterly here which would cool things down somewhat, but not quite sure how quickly this evolution will take place yet.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 3-7)

A general blocking pattern should remain in place, but slow movement of weather systems will occur and we’ll watch for low pressure to the south should it come far enough north to finally produce some rainfall again…

17 thoughts on “Friday April 23 2021 Forecast (7:23AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    TK, you wrote this in the 6-10 Day:

    Low pressure may position itself south of New England by the first couple of days of the new month, turning the wind more easterly here

    Did you mean to say North of NE? Wouldn’t South promote
    a West or SW wind? Of course the gradient could be light and still promote East wind along the coast. Just sounded
    a bit confusing.

    Thanks

    1. TK’s statement looks correct to me. If “high” pressure were to position to our south, then there would be a W or SW wind.

      1. Yes but his statement says the wind will be turning Easterly.

        I don’t know if he meant the high to the north OR
        the high just to the south where the gradient would then be light and turn the winds on shore.

        1. It DOES make a difference. 🙂 However, looking at the models, I do believe he really meant South and the easterly wind would result from the light gradient produced.

          1. If low pressure were south of us, winds would be out of the east, just as he said. It would have nothing to do with a light gradient, and everything to do with the counterclockwise circulation around low pressure.

            1. Of course! Duh, not sure where my brain is today!)*(@#&(!*@&#(*&!@*(#&!*(@&#*!&@#*(&!*(#@

              I read it as HIGH pressure. Don’t ask me why, but I did!!!! I best not be doing any important work today!

              What’s next????????????????????????????

              Ah crap! My bad.

    1. That was the trend I’d been watching and mentioned in today’s discussion. I still think we’ll rain, but it won’t be maximized potential. If the NAM from 12z is right, the place that needs the rain least (Cape Cod) may get the most…

  8. Quick glance at the 18z NAM indicates that “drier” trend with Sunday’s system continues.

    And once again let this be a lesson that this does not happen with just snow events. 😛

      1. Yes, and there is a non-phase factor too. There will be energy to the north as well that if they had joined up would have helped that system be closer and produce more. But they’re not really going to do it until after they both go by our region.

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