840pm
Good evening everybody!
Part 1 of the storm is winding down, and has gone pretty much as expected, with a general 4 to 8 inches of fluffy snow over the majority of MA, northern CT & RI, & southern NH. Slightly higher amounts (8 to 10 inches) fell in the Springfield MA area. Amounts of mostly under 4 inches were reported in far southeastern MA, southern CT, & southern RI.
Tonight, between the first & second parts of this double-barrel storm, there is some scattered light snow falling, but a bubble of slightly warmer air a few thousand feet off the ground will slide across the region, and may change the light snow to light freezing drizzle for a few hours. This could create a slight glazing on any cleared surfaces, but should not have a major impact.
Part 2 of the winter weather event gets underway by midnight to the west, and by 2 or 3am closer to Boston, as snow moves rapidly in from west to east, the short-lived warm bubble aloft having departed. Yesterday, I was calling for a widespread 6-12 inches of snow/sleet from part 2, with less to the south of the Mass Pike due to more mixing. The general idea is the same, but I am going to tweak the amounts and detail them a bit more, as it’s more apparent where the sleet & freezing rain will be. By 6am Wednesday, expect steady, moderate to at times heavy snow over most of MA & southern NH except sleet & freezing rain over southern CT, southern RI, and southeastern MA. Temperatures may go above freezing over parts of the Cape and Islands by then, for plain rain. As the morning goes on, the line of snow to sleet will progress northward toward the Mass Pike, probably reaching Boston westward along the Pike by 9am, then sliding further north toward Route 2 toward noon. This will be due to warmer air working in above the very cold air still stuck at the surface. There should not be much progress northward from here, and this should hold in place for a few hours in the afternoon.
Temperatures at the surface will remain below freezing in pretty much all areas except the immediate coast from Boston south through Plymouth County, and over much of Cape Cod and the Islands, and over southern RI & coastal CT. These areas will most likely see a period of rain (not freezing while it falls). A band of freezing rain should be occurring just inland of the Plymouth County Coast westward across interior southeastern MA up to about the Mass Pike, and extending west southwest across northern RI & northern and central CT and adjacent far south central MA. Precipitation should be mainly in the form of sleet during the early to mid afternoon north of the Mass Pike to about Route 2, except snow along Route 2 outside 495. Mainly snow is expected toward the MA/NH border, though some sleet will mix in at times here. Snow should dominate in southern NH except the immediate shore which may mix with sleet & freezing rain.
It should be noted that the area that sees the belt of freezing rain may see up to 1/2 inch of ice buildup. This is the region where power outages are most likely.
Precipitation should start to diminish from west to east from late afternoon through evening, and should be pretty much done with by midnight. Colder air working back in will change most sleet/ice/rain areas back to lighter snow, lastly on the Cape, during the last several hours of the storm.
Accumulations expected from part 2… Slushy inch at the end on Cape Cod and the Islands, 1-3 inches Cape Cod Canal to southern and coastal Plymouth County, east central and southern RI, coastal southern CT. 2-4 inches most of CT, northern RI, and most of southeastern MA to the region just south of Boston, mainly south of the Mass Pike, where freezing rain is most likely after the snow falls, 4 to 8 inches from the Mass Pike northward through Route 2. 6-12 inches where it remains mostly snow toward the MA/NH border into southern NH.
An blog update will follow later, after new guidance comes out, updating this storm if necessary, and also looking ahead to the rest of the week…