Sunday April 25 2021 Forecast (7:57AM)

28 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 25-29)

Low pressure moves quickly northeastward, passing southeast of New England today and this evening, bringing some rain, but not as much as it would have had it phased with some energy to its north. But I guess we’ll take what we can get in this deficit situation, although the heaviest will end up falling where it is least-needed, and the areas that need it most will miss out on the higher amounts. Once this gets by us, drier air comes back in overnight and Monday on a gusty north to northwest wind, and fair weather lasts through Tuesday, though that day will be more tranquil as a weak area of high pressure moves across the region. I’m now more accepting of the idea that high pressure is not going to prevent any further unsettled weather through midweek. It won’t be nearly as dominant as previously (and erroneously) indicated by guidance. We will find ourselves in a bit of a battle ground between warmth to the south and cool air to the north, which is definitely not atypical of this time of year either. A warm front will slide into the region late Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and may not completely make it all the way while its parent low pressure area, will be moving rapidly east southeastward and will drag that boundary back across there region as a cold front during Wednesday, a day that will feature lots of clouds and an opportunity for rain showers. There’s a bit of a dilemma for day 5 of this forecast (Thursday). One medium range model takes that system far enough south so that a bubble of Canadian high pressure has enough influence on our region to provide a nice day Thursday, while another model moves the disturbance much more slowly, keeping the frontal boundary and shower chances in the region. For now, I’ll lean toward the drier solution…

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving southwest to northeast during the morning, tapering to drizzle late in the day. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 47-54 or may fall slightly. Wind S up to 10 MPH this morning shifting to E 5-15 MPH with gusts up to 20 MPH near the coast during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds with a few patches of drizzle and maybe a rain shower early, then clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind shifting to N 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 54-61. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny start then some high clouds filtering the sun at times. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Brief light rain possible mainly northern MA and southern NH overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 67-74. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showres evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 30 – MAY 4)

Since we already have uncertainty as to the position of weather systems and the resultant weather here just 5 days into the forecast, going forward from there will be fairly low confidence as well, as one will impact the other to some degree. Today’s guidance is somewhat similar to what was indicated yesterday, which was a notable shift in the overall set-up from what was being shown previously, so this forecast, while low confidence, will be based on that idea being at least somewhat in the ballpark of accuracy. We’ll be near a boundary with cool air in eastern Canada and a warm US Southeast (where have we heard that before?) and this will bring a few opportunities for unsettled weather, which we can hope will bring us some beneficial rainfall. As far as day-to-day timing of such possibilities, that will have to be fine-tuned as we get closer to this time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 5-9)

Adjustment to this forecast period based on the above idea, and thinking that the overall pattern will leave us near the aforementioned boundary, with no real indication of a major change in the pattern from the 6-10 day period. As always, will be paying attention to the guidance trends and overall pattern in general to bring these days into better forecast focus once it is possible to do so.

28 thoughts on “Sunday April 25 2021 Forecast (7:57AM)”

  1. Thank you TK!
    I’ll be enjoying the cold rain from the sidelines of a soccer field, watching my son play in the mud today. You have to love springtime sports in New England! 🙂

  2. Thanks TK.

    It’s been looking like rain ever since sunrise. Will Boston squeeze out a couple hours worth of rain?

  6. “All systems fail in a drought.” -B. Burbank

    Oh so true. We’re going back. Slow-burn, as WxW said, but we’re going back.

    1. Good ole Barry. I do miss him on air. 🙂

      I guess Dave Epstein will go back in “storage” for awhile until Eric takes another vacation week. 😉 It was good having him on air for this weekend again anyway. 🙂

      Nothing against Jacob personally in the least mind you. I’m just not into any of today’s new generation of tv mets. I suspect that Harvey will be the next retiree sooner rather than later.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    I have to figure out the lake and pond and marshy system in Sutton. All seem to be very full which makes no sense to me

  10. Partial sunshine here in the NW ‘burbs. Rain has ended. I think that should about do it besides a few lingering showers & a patch of drizzle. Most of the remaining rain is over Cape Cod, where they needed it least.

    The slightly above normal rainfall for the month in parts of far southern New England will do little or nothing to help the longer term issue. Don’t be fooled by increased stream & small river flow. That’s “run off”. It’s not going to do much of anything beneficial.

    1. It actually behaved more like a typical snow event…pieces of energy not merging. At least I have now lived to see it in a rain event.

      1. You’ve seen this plenty of times with rain events, probably more than snow events. You just don’t realize it until now. 🙂

    2. I don’t think we have had enough for this to be just runoff. Some areas are near road level. I suspect I know why but will see what I can find.

  11. Thank you, TK.

    When in doubt, there’s a drought.

    I can see evidence of it along the banks of the Charles. A scorching summer will do a number on the vegetation. But, we’re not there yet.

    Couldn’t help but notice that the winter weather advisories are still being posted daily in parts of the country. Here’s one:

    https://ktvz.com/weather/alerts-weather/2021/04/25/winter-weather-advisory-issued-april-25-at-653am-pdt-until-april-25-at-200pm-pdt-by-nws-medford-or/

    1. I don’t think we have had enough for this to be just runoff. Some areas are near road level. I suspect I know why but will see what I can find.

  14. I do love small towns. Ask a question and you are blessed to have folks who know the workings of the town

    I asked re water height and was lucky enough to have my question answered by an individual whose job it is to work in the capacity I was thinking about. Most bodies of water in Sutton are under Municipal, State, or Federal control and controlled by dams and spillways.

    There is a specific marshy area I had in mind also that is close to road height. There is a visible beaver dam in it but further up the way, there is a beaver family that keeps building dams and blocking flow.

    My definite sense is that it is the former that is mostly responsible but nature adds to it.

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