Tuesday April 27 2021 Forecast (7:27AM)

45 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 27 – MAY 1)

The high and mid level clouds have already arrived ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. This boundary is going to tease the forecasters over the next few days with challenging wind direction and temperature forecast, and even present a challenge trying to figure out when the best chances of passing areas of rain will be. This is how I think it goes, and the overall idea is very similar to what I put forth on yesterday’s blog. For today, already there is more cloudiness than I had expected, but I do think some of that will thin out and we will still end up with a fair amount of sun at times, but it may vary from place to place and time to time. It will be a dry day, however, on the mild side, and less windy than yesterday was as that departing low is now far enough away and high pressure slides southwest of the region. Impulses of energy in the form of waves on the frontal boundary will bring increased rain chances that I think time for mostly the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday and again Wednesday evening, and a couple more times between Thursday evening and Friday afternoon, although tweaks will be needed most likely. There may be enough instability for a couple thunderstorms thrown into these rain chances too, though nothing widespread or severe is expected to occur. So our last 4 days of April will feature “disorganized” weather, for lack of a better term, and it won’t be until we get to Saturday, the first day of May, that it currently looks more clear cut: Gusty wind, cool air and a sun/cloud mix behind departing low pressure, with upper level disturbance still crossing the region and possibly triggering a few passing rain showers. Mother Nature, I challenge you to change this day 5 forecast on me! 😉

TODAY: Variably cloudy but some sunshine. Highs 64-71. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few passing rain showers possible and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few rain showers possible. Highs 55-62 southern NH and northern MA, coolest coast, and 63-70 to the south. Wind variable becoming mostly E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy rain showers likely and a slight chance of a thunderstorm evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Best chance of a rain shower early morning and late afternoon. Highs 58-65 coast with coolest Cape Cod, 66-73 interior. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH may shift to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A rain shower possible. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 2-6)

I don’t think we get a forecasting break during the first week of May, as our region will likely still be near a frontal boundary for much of if not all of the time. Early guess, warm front approaches with clouds and risk of light rainfall May 2, high pressure builds in with a dry and mild interlude next day, then we go back into the in-and-out-of-clouds with occasional brief wet weather chances, but nothing that’s really going to produce beneficial rain.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 7-11)

I’ve been looking for indications of change, but still not seeing it. Still leaning toward the idea of weak systems with limited rain changes, but no long stretches of fair/warm weather.

45 thoughts on “Tuesday April 27 2021 Forecast (7:27AM)”

  1. Thanks TK. Still hoping for a large high pressure area to park itself over us soon! We have been lucky so far in this meteorological spring with dry/sunny days.

  2. Thanks TK! I guess there will be no more sightings of the “pink full moon” for this year. I missed it last night.

  6. Playing around with some ENSO data and looking at the recent teleconnections history.

    Looks like for the most recent LA Nina, temp differential maxed out at -1.3 during one 3 month period.

    The LA Nina has not been long lasting, mostly a weak LA Nina with a period reaching into the moderate category.

    Forecast is for it to trend towards neutral.

    Looking back on golden gate weather services ENSO history chart, I chose 1995-1996 and 2017-2018 as two analog years for similar behaving ENSO signatures.

    Current drought monitor shows strong/severe drought in the west, southwest and intermountain west, and abnormally dry in the eastern Great Lakes and New England.

    The teleconnections are hard to predict in my opinion, but we´ve been seeing some negative NAO recently, a neg-positive-neutral AO and a neutral to slightly negative PNA.

    1995-96 summer had (3) 90F days and 2017-2018 had (12) 90F days.

    Putting it all together, I´m guessing the ridge is likely to be more dominant out west this summer, with more of a shallow trof in the northeast (WNW or NW flow) aloft.

    I´ll guess (11) 90F days in Boston, temps average to 1F below average. Precip below to well below average and not too many oppressive days, some humid days, but much of the summer having dewpoints running anywhere between 50F and 60F.

    1. That’s 11 days too many for my taste. Still sounds like a fairly comfortable summer ahead though, assuming it all works out that way.

      1. We´ll see.

        I´ll put a lot more stock into TK, WxWatcher, JMA and SAK´s summer thoughts, if and when they share them.

        I like to look at data and try my hand at a guess. 🙂

  8. Thanks, TK…

    Light sleet or grauple here in Taunton. Some sort of tiny ice pellets hitting the car. 48 degrees.

  9. Thanks TK. These are always tricky patterns. I remember around this time last week looking ahead at the heat prospects for this week. We’ll make a run at 90 down here in the mid-Atlantic tomorrow, but it definitely won’t be that warm up in SNE with the boundary being closer than it initially was modeled last week. The joys of spring forecasting!

    Hard to call the rain chances too. It looks like if there’s going to be beneficial rain, the areas that need it most (northern/interior SNE) do have the best chance. The 6z NAM and RGEM runs look great for a drought-denter, but we know how things tend to go in dry patterns.

    Finally, if it were a month or two from now tomorrow’s setup would scream severe MCS. I wouldn’t rule out some severe weather tomorrow especially in the interior (the SPC has a Marginal risk out in upstate NY, which I think will come east some), but like TK I’m not expecting anything big. But a nagging feeling tells me to continue watching it.

    I do think these next few days could be “interesting” in some way(s), somewhere, in the New England and mid-Atlantic regions, but that’s not especially helpful. Slow-moving boundaries always keep us on our toes 🙂

    1. Thank you for your thoughts. I always hope for the best and expect the worst. Only way to survive around here. 🙂

  11. Thanks TK and Thanks WxWatcher for your thoughts. SREF does have NY state and parts of western CT and MA in that low tornado risk. Last week in CT we had the earliest tornado on record with an EF0 in Kent.

  13. Some sun is out now and the temperature has bounced up to 51.

    Tom, funny you should ask about the start up of school again.
    It has been anything but smooth!!! The brand new Middleborough High School opened yesterday. It is incredible, almost overwhelming, especially the new technology.

    Yesterday was a teacher day for us to get settled and set up our classrooms, etc. There were more workers and IT personnel in the building yesterday than staff! 🙂

    However, we are still hybrid, so today and tomorrow are my two days home with my kiddos. Our first day is Thursday!

    The new laptop they gave me/us runs so slowly, it is useless. I had to rig something up last minute this morning so I could teach and meet my students from home!

    Many high schools have gone back full in-person already. I suspect we will be the week of May 10, not a moment too soon.

    1. So sorry. And for such a short time. I thought it was either full remote or full in. Are you offering hybrid also?

      Sutton and Uxbridge high returned yesterday. My grands in both towns will remain full remote.

      1. We have been hybrid since September 15. We never closed. Middleborough’s Pre-K through Grade 8 have been back (except Cohort 4) since April 5. I suspect that MHS would have gone back fully in-person then, too, but the new building was not ready.

    2. Agreed, those technology changes/upgrades are challenging. They tend to be intimidating to me. Good luck !!

      Marshfield K-5 was back full time sometime in March and then 6-12 went back full time April 5th.

        1. I want to say I saw an email from MPSD that the town was classified in the green category now. So, I think things are trending better here.

  18. It’s a little after 3 AM and according to the radar, a large orange blob has just swallowed Boston.

    1. This was pretty good warm front activity.
      Even the thunderstorms verified including some cloud to ground activity mostly in Connecticut and Rhode Island.

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