Sunday May 2 2021 Forecast (8:08AM)

46 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 2-6)

Over the next several days we’ll see a battle between air masses play out over us while we see a battle between model guidance to resolve the details. Today, instead of going into specific model differences in this discussion, I’m just going to outline the outcome I see most likely and forecast that and its impact. There is not a whole lot of change to the discussion I wrote yesterday, so paraphrasing myself, this is how I see it all playing out now: Frontal boundary sits over us today but a bit to the north, allowing a warm-up, with less wind than we had yesterday. The boundary will start to slip to the south with time, and as it does so more moisture will be coming in from the west above us, so while some areas are still under a canopy of cloudiness and will still be when I post this blog shortly after 8:00 a.m., it is the middle part of the morning that may be the sunniest for the region overall, with variable to considerable amounts of cloudiness both moving into and forming over the region as we go through the day. Some of this cloudiness may be thicken enough to generate patches of light rainfall which may dot or wet the ground in a few locations later in the day or this evening, but this day is not going to turn into a washout by any stretch. Still, a nice Sunday overall given the warmer temperatures and lack of wind in comparison to the 2 days preceding it. Now, this frontal boundary will still be hanging about the region, mainly just to the south Monday and trying to push back to the north Monday night and Tuesday, with more unsettled weather, and one final low pressure wave will move through sometime on Wednesday, leaning toward slightly quicker timing right now, so that we may dry out before that day is over. This leads us to what will likely be the pick of the upcoming week – Thursday, as high pressure moves in.

TODAY: Variably cloudy – most sunshine morning, least sunshine afternoon. Slight chance of brief light rain in some locations during the afternoon. Highs 66-73, except 58-65 in some coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusting 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain by late-day favoring areas south and west of Boston. Highs 55-62 southern NH and northeastern MA, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain. Patches of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and areas of fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers during the aftenroon hours. Highs 55-62. Wind E to variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 48-55. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely during the morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 39-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind NW to variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 7-11)

Watching for potential impact from low pressure near or south of New England May 7-8 with slow improvement to follow as that system moves away and high pressure builds in. Still somewhat low confidence on this forecast and will detail these days better as they get closer.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 12-16)

Weak to moderate zonal flow pattern expected with low amplitude trough tendency in the northeastern US. This would lead to a couple non-lingering bouts of unsettled weather with variable temperatures, tending to be close to or even slightly below normal if the pattern verifies as expected.

46 thoughts on “Sunday May 2 2021 Forecast (8:08AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Bright and sunny now. Coming into work earlier an odd looking sky with much cloudiness.

    1. Mid-level warm advection cloudiness, making up part of the variably cloudy that was in my forecast. 🙂

        1. It is hard enough for snow to fall in February down there, how could that occur in early May no less??

            1. I don’t understand how that scenario is even “plausible”. Pure fantasy at best…

              1. How quickly you forget history my friend. It’s not impossible. It’s happened before there, in May. 🙂

  6. Thanks, TK…

    Happy Sunday and Happy Easter to those who celebrate the holiday today!

    1. Usually Orthodox Easter is the following Sunday in April, after the traditional one. To have it in May must be rare.

  7. What a miserable forecast for youth sports and our moods in general. This time of the year is always a time I start to say would do I live here.

    1. Funny thing is that memories of the wettest or hottest days with kids sports are the ones I remember most. Lots of lessons and laughs in those

    2. Ironically we’ve had pretty fair weather a good portion of the spring. Big rain events have been few, and long stretches without sunshine have not really existed. We’ve also had a lack of low cloud / fog / drizzle patterns thus far.

  10. Thank you, TK.

    Yesterday was a SNE spring gem. And yes, as Hadi, points out, spring in SNE can very often frustrate. I guess we take what we can get.

  11. Easter:

    I found this on the BBC website:

    Orthodox churches in some countries including Greece, Cyprus and Romania base their Easter date on the Julian calendar.

    The Julian Calendar was designed by Julius Caesar in 45 BC – basing a year on the time it takes the Sun to go around the Earth.

    The Gregorian Calendar was created by Pope Gregory in 1582 to fix some of the glitches in the Julian Calendar as astronomy became more accurate.

    Great Britain changed to the Gregorian calendar in 1752.

    Also in the eastern Orthodox Church, Easter must happen after the Jewish festival of Passover – as in the Easter story, Jesus celebrates Passover before his death.

    In 2021 Passover ended on 4 April.

    1. Very interesting, Captain. This fascinates me.

      St Lucia in Sweden which is the festival of light is celebrated December 13….the darkest day of the year according to the Julian calendar.

  12. Spring is here. Calendar or no. Just had our first hummingbird at the feeder. Yay !!!!

        1. Normal caveat about uncertainty beyond day 3 or 4 in effect, but if I HAD to bet, I’d take the GFS over the other 2 mentioned. 🙂

          1. Ohhhh I needed a big smile. Thank you, sir. If nothing else, it is fun to think about.

  15. I’ve had people asking me why we’ve having such a nasty spring and they are COMPLETELY wrong. This is one of the better spring seasons we’ve had…

    For meteorological spring (Boston) through 63 days there have only been 14 days with measurable precipitation, cloud cover is less than average, temperatures are running about 3 degrees ABOVE average, and precipitation is running about 2 inches BELOW average. Wind speeds have been up, but nothing new there for springtime in New England. Our “ocean chill factor” has been less harsh than normal due to milder than average ocean water temperatures and blocking patterns that have put us in FAIR weather more than unsettled weather. All in all, pretty wonderful springtime in southeastern New England so far. We’ve had worse – a lot worse. 😉

    Psychology plays a part. People react to forecasts as if they are current. They react to “a chance of rain” as they would a dark, dreary day, even if it’s nice outside at the time. They also have unreasonable expectations, like day 5 forecasts of “80” showing up on a TV icon as being locks, when they really should know better. The mets on this blog say it all the time. Most people here get it. Most people in public do not.

    1. It’s funny that a small percent of rain on a app map translates to all day for some. We have had some lovely days this spring….even the ones with some showered embedded

      1. A lot of great flowers! My mom’s bleeding hearts at the most prolific in 10 years.

      2. It is an hour earlier there so maybe still light in the area of that line, but won’t still be light if it marches more east

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