Monday May 3 2021 Forecast (7:16AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MAY 3-7)

A beneficially wetter pattern has taken over and has the potential to reduce the longer-term dry issue during the next 5 days. Our frontal friend hangs about still, having moved back to the south as a cold front yesterday, but not before allowing temperatures into the 60s and 70s across the region. Today will be a cooler day with a general onshore (east to northeast) air flow, though most rainfall is going to hold off until we get to tonight as a low pressure wave moves eastward along the frontal boundary as it sits just south of New England. This low will move away Tuesday, with the wettest part of the day in the morning. Some drier air will make an attempt to push into the region from the north during the afternoon as the departing low strengthens, but we probably only see breaks in the clouds at best later Tuesday before the next low approaching from the west thickens the clouds back up later at night. This low is likely to track north of here, and even though the surface frontal boundary may not push all the way northward through the region, it will warm up aloft and a more showery rainfall is likely to occur Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with the passage of this system. Can’t rule out some thunder in this set-up as well. I still believe this system will be moving quickly enough that we have a shot to salvage the second half or at least late day and evening of Wednesday with drier weather and at least some partial clearing. Finally by Thursday, we’ll get a break as high pressure moves in with a nice spring day. But that won’t last. The next low pressure system will already be evolving to our southwest and will be moving into the water just south of New England by later on Friday. This brings are next shot at wet and this time fairly chilly weather as we end up with a slightly stronger onshore air flow to the north of the system. The questions with this are timing and just how far north its precipitation shield comes, so some fine-tuning will be done during the week on this…

TODAY: Thickest clouds north of I-90 and thinning clouds with partial sun to the south this morning. Thinning of clouds further north may allow for some sunshine midday through mid afternoon before cloudiness thickens up from southwest to northeast again by late afternoon or early evening. Highs 55-62 coast, 62-69 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and areas of fog in the morning. Clouds breaking at times but still a possible rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind E up to 10 MPH morning, shifting to N 10-20 MPH afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Cloudy with numerous to widespread rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms overnight. Areas of fog forming. Lows 48-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH early evening, variable up to 10 MPH late evening, SE 5-15 MPH overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with numerous rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms morning. Lots of clouds and intervals of sunshine afternoon with a slight chance of an additional passing rain shower. Highs 58-65, coolest South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to SW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle with areas of fog in the afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 8-12)

Low pressure may impact the region with rain or even some higher elevation rain/snow mix early May 8 followed by drying but breezy/cool conditions. May squeeze in a nice day May 9 before the next system from the west brings additional unsettled weather potential in the May 10-12 window as the active pattern continues. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 13-17)

Weak to moderate zonal flow pattern expected with low amplitude trough tendency in the northeastern US. This would lead passing episodes of showery weather with dry weather between but near to below normal temperatures overall.

34 thoughts on “Monday May 3 2021 Forecast (7:16AM)”

    1. This is a good pattern for control of tree pollen and lessening the long term precipitation deficit.

    1. Going, going, gone, much like the Red Sox four-game series against the Rangers this past weekend! 🙂

  9. Thank TK.

    Hopefully the next Drought Monitor map will be mostly clear of yellow for awhile.

    As for Wednesday, the tv mets have the rain moving in during the afternoon and continuing. Opposite of TK’s thinking. I will go with his timing, of course. Better for me since I have a medical appointment that afternoon.

  10. Been sitting out this morning with coffee. What a lovely morning it is. The birds are quite active. I’m amazed at how blue the blue birds are now. We have a family nesting in our bluebird house. We have a house finch family nesting in a pine tree. The cardinals and goldfinches are singing away.

    I was putting out our second hummingbird feeder and a male hummer literally buzzed my hand to hurry me up.

    This is a nasty photo because I was so close I knew I’d scare him when I raised my phone for a photo. I think he is giving me a dirty look 😉

    https://imgur.com/a/PSL7mhC

  11. Pretty nice day here. Some sunshine and the temperature
    is up to 69. I can take this every day. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. The other scenario makes just as much sense, but it will only happen if the track is correct.

          Just that other than a few systems the overwhelming trend this spring has been for rain events to miss or graze the area versus full on hitting. As I’ve always said, it happens more with rain systems than snow events.

  14. Lovely day Clouds separated a bit ago and blue sky dotted with clouds appeared. Temp hovered around 69/70 as advertised

    1. It was yet another wonderful spring day among many we’ve had this season. 🙂

        1. Vicki…..once I showed the picture of your hummingbird arrival to my wife, she immediately made me fetch the feeder and she had a new batch of sugar water to fill it with. After which she immediately tightened it too much and broke it. So, off I went to buy another one and hopefully this one will attract better than the last one. When we lived in Peabody, we had a male and female constantly feeding at ours…She named him Ruby.
          So please send yours down to us for a visit.

          Also, I see you are using sliced oranges. My wife started using that technique last week and we had our first Oriole visit today. How beautiful they are.

          Now she is intrigued by your Bluebird house. We haven’t seen any yet.

          And to you and JPDave…..we are now in season 8 of Heartland and everytime we see each other, we say
          “Hey!”

          1. Seriously. I love love this post. I do hope your wife didn’t cut yourself with feeder.

            You are ahead of me as I have not seen an oriole. It also isn’t too late to set up a bluebird house. We have it on the bottom of the hill at the edge of our backyard. We have a second one a bit higher up the hill but pricier bushes took over the area and we can’t get to it to clean

            We were about to outfit the house with fishing line to keep the sparrows out but the bluebirds moved in first. I’ll send a diagram of what to do. I’m keeping my fingers crossed that the babies hatch and grow before the sparrows get to them. Two years ago they broke all of the eggs

            Will find the diagram and post below.

            Enjoy heartland. Thanks to JPD it has a good number of new followers. I’ll send some of the hummers your way. I’d love to hear when you get some. I just ordered a window hummer feeder

  15. Now that the pubs have opened their outdoor patios in Britain – still no indoor service, from what I understand – I had been hoping for their sake that the weather would cooperate. Sadly it hasn’t. Spoke to my daughter yesterday and she said it’s been a miserable stretch of 10 days straight of rain. Mostly of the light variety, but still. This tweet and picture of folks enjoying their pints in pouring rain kind of says it all: https://twitter.com/marcusjdl/status/1389305857209479175

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