DAYS 1-5 (MAY 7-11)

The latest US Drought Monitor release on Thursday indicated that conditions have improved somewhat, and that southeastern New England, while largely running abnormally dry due to a precipitation deficit (year-to-date) of up to a few inches, also has a large portion of eastern and southeastern MA with “normal” conditions at this time. Most of the drought is now confined to areas to the north and west. This is the result of a series of beneficial rain events since April. Will that trend continue? It’s hard to say for sure, but recent trends point to us sliding back into a drier regime. We’ll be in between systems today as low pressure evolves too far offshore for direct impact and an upper level low pressure area hangs back to our west. That upper low will come across the region Saturday with lots of clouds and a few rain showers around, but definitely nothing close to a rainy day. A small area of high pressure will cross the region with nice weather for a good portion of Sunday, but clouds will already be racing in ahead of the next low pressure system, which as very flat and progressive system will move through Sunday night and the first part of Monday, when we have our best chance at a light to borderline moderate rainfall. After this system exist, a dry and cooler air mass arrives during Monday into Tuesday with a northwesterly wind flow. Some cold air aloft may trigger cloud development and possibly a few pop up rain showers on Tuesday.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 39-46. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, favoring areas west and south of Boston in the afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 58-65. Wind W up to 10 MPH morning, variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain ending from west to east during the morning. Clouds break for sun afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, becoming W during the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 12-16)

While model guidance indicates possible rainfall from low pressure passing south of the region May 14-15, this system may end up further south than currently shown by guidance. This should be a mostly dry and cool period for southeastern New England, but will watch to see what that system does.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 17-21)

For now not making any significant changes to the forecast of continued west-to-east movement, limited rainfall, and near to below normal temperatures, but there are a few signs that the overall movement of systems may start to slow as we go through the period, and if so, the location of features will have implications on the specific weather here. Fancy way of saying there is still plenty of uncertainty in the medium range.