Saturday May 8 2021 Forecast (8:50AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MAY 8-12)

Low pressure well offshore southeast of New England and an upper level disturbance sliding east southeastward across New England today into this evening will provide lots of clouds but very limited rainfall, amounting only to the few showers that can survive into the region from the west or develop in marginally unstable conditions later today into this evening. High pressure moves in and provides nice weather for Sunday – Mother’s Day, but high cloudiness will be streaming in rather quickly during the afternoon ahead of the next area of low pressure. This low is going to be on the weak side and rather quick-moving, with a shot of light rainfall for Sunday night into Monday morning before it departs oceanward. There will still be some upper level energy and cold air aloft hanging around through Tuesday, so lots of clouds may linger Monday even as drier air moves in. The core of upper level cold will be moving across the region during Tuesday. Lots of clouds are expected that day and any sunshine that does occur will just help initiate more cloud development, and possibly lead to a few pop-up rain showers. This, combined with a gusty northwesterly breeze at the surface will make for a rather chilly feel. This will ease a bit Wednesday but with still some cold air aloft we will see additional fair weather cloud development, though likely less extensive as the day before.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers, favoring areas west and south of Boston in the afternoon and southern NH through eastern MA and RI by evening. Highs 53-60. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds and a few possible rain showers early, then gradual clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 58-65. Wind W up to 10 MPH morning, variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain ending from west to east during the morning. Clouds break for partial sun afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, becoming W during the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds decrease. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then a cloud/sun mix. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 13-17)

An area of high pressure is expected to bring fair weather for the middle of next week. Not biting on current model solutions of a low pressure area bringing rain about May 14, but leaning toward a weaker system bringing a chance of rain showers around May 15. Fair weather and a potential warm-up after that if high pressure is stronger toward the Middle Atlantic region, which may be the case.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 18-22)

There’s a lot of uncertainty in this forecast. It will depend on whether or not the warm-up occurs in the latter portion of the 6-10 day forecast period. If so, there may be a period of unsettled weather as another cool air mass arrives from Canada by the middle or end of the period. Timing and details will be impossible to figure out this far in advance. Just know that there is the potential for some volatility and a more drastic temperature change than I had previously indicated.

27 thoughts on “Saturday May 8 2021 Forecast (8:50AM)”

        1. Ah well. I kind of like the album that one is on. But her “Flying Cowboys” album is one of the best. Produced by Walter Becker of Steely Dan. 🙂

        2. I’m not a huge fan of the Ramones, so I guess it’s all good. 😉

          They are kinda good, but at the same time they kinda suck. Heh!

  7. Thanks TK.

    At least the Drought Monitor Map should clear up. Already Boston & South Shore is out of the dryness.

    1. It’s probably about as good as we’re going to see it. We’ll be heading back the other way before too long.

        1. While it’s true that “every little bit helps”, this won’t help much. Probably under 1/2 inch for most, maybe under 1/4 inch for many. And that may be it for quite some time…

          I’m growing more confident that this rain threat will under-produce, and next week’s rain threat will essentially vanish (big miss to the south).

  8. oh well, no worries.

    I have been to their old hang out, CBGBs in NYC, But never saw them live.

  9. Thanks TK.

    Been reading but not posting much lately as I had rotator cuff surgery on my right shoulder last week. I’m recovering OK but stuck in a sling for 3 or 4 more weeks and then will have several months of PT. Also had my second Covid shot earlier this week and that put me out of commission the next day. Might as well take care of all this crap at once!

    It was cloudy and cool here today but averted the showers for my son’s baseball game.

    1. Darn Mark. I was afraid something was wrong. That is a tough surgery. Hope you recover quickly

  10. Post from Ryan Hanrahan earlier in the week:

    A small win tonight… the new 30-climate normals have been released by the National Weather Service and the numbers are right for BDL (they were wrong for the 1981-2010 normals and it drove me insane). BDL averages 51.7″ of snow per year.

    Here is the link where you can look up the new climate averages for any city (highs, lows, precip, and snow):

    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/

  11. For average annual snow, these are the norms for SNE:

    BDL 51.7″ (this is way up from the previous avg by ~10″)
    BPT 33.6″
    BOS 49.2″
    ORH 72.9″
    PVD 36.6″

  14. Thanks Mark for posting those new norms for snowfall. I don’t know though if I can get used to BOS with nearly 50 inches (49.2) in a season. Seems somewhat high to me. Oh well.

    I guess that number seems even weirder with the fact that the past 3 seasons snowfall in Boston has been well below normal from the “old” average (43.8”) as it was.

    27.4”
    15.8”
    38.6”

    1. Not really. If you take that new 30 year period, it’s indeed correct. Only one of the last 3 years Boston’s snowfall could be considered “well below normal” (the 15.8). The others are just below and slightly below. But if you look at how many years during the 30 year period were above, and some very much above normal, the new average makes complete sense.

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