Tuesday May 11 2021 Forecast (7:17AM)

42 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)

Upper level low pressure and it’s associated cold pool of air aloft will move across the region through Wednesday resulting in variable cloud patches and diurnal cloud development both days. The best chance of any shower activity will come in the form of a few sprinkles favoring the hills well north and west of Boston this afternoon, near the South Coast from a disturbance passing quickly through the region tonight, and one more lobe of energy with a trough swinging through during Wednesday afternoon. I’d previously thought Wednesday would have less of a chance than today, but that’s going to turn out to be the opposite. Anyway, by Thursday and Friday, a weak area of high pressure will provide fair weather, though by later Friday more cloudiness will be appearing in advance of the next disturbance, an upper level low pressure area which will bring cooler air in aloft and set the stage for pop up showers when we get to Saturday.

TODAY: Partly sunny. A passing very light rain shower possible mainly well north and west of Boston this afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower during the evening mainly near the South Coast. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers. Highs 58-65 coast, 65-72 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)

Upper level low pressure hanging around May 16 will help trigger some diurnal cloud and scattered shower development. A warm front approaching May 17 brings clouds and eventually some risk of light rain. Brief warm sector potential with a chance of showers/thunderstorms May 18. High pressure moves in to bring fair and slightly cooler weather later in the period. Not a high confidence forecast with quite a bit of uncertainty.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)

Leaning dry/seasonable to start and wetter/milder later in the period.

42 thoughts on “Tuesday May 11 2021 Forecast (7:17AM)”

  1. The last week was the coldest May week globally in 36 years. And the cool anomalies have been in both the northern & southern hemispheres. Australia has been in a fairly long term cool trend after previous heat.

    Tornado numbers continue to be low as we see a long term “tornado drought” dragging on. That is certainly not a bad thing.

    For anyone interested, here’s a world roundup I see once per week from this guy, who I have said before kind of reminds me of one of my mentors I worked with back in the late 1980s & 1990s.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yAFb6U2WeE

  3. Thank you, TK.

    I’m fine with the cooler temperatures, right through summer. Ain’t going to happen, of course. But, I figure every week that doesn’t feature heat is one fewer during the warm season.

  5. I´d be content with 70F this time of year, so, I´m looking forward to Thursday and beyond for weather.

    For summer, 83F to 87F or so with dewpoints in the 50s. Warm days and nights that can cool off.

    There´s just not enough acclimation weather transitioning to the warm season here, in my opinion. Frozen Hudson Bay, eastern Canada snow cover and the Labrador Current mute the spring moderation. Then, suddenly, in mid June, those 3 cold sources moderate and without their dominating presence. boom, we are suddenly susceptible to high 80s and 90s without much buildup to these temps.

    1. Problem is, despite the on air chatter of more consistent warmth starting Thursday, I don’t think I agree with it. We’re not there yet.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    2011 and 1982 come to mind as unusually cold but both may have been more June than May

  10. I remember May 2005 being cool. One meteorologist here in CT called it May To Cool

  11. Tom, you explain it well. I might save this paragraph so that I can tell newcomers to Boston why one day in June they wake up to 90 degree heat after a prolonged period of relatively cool temps.

    “There´s just not enough acclimation weather transitioning to the warm season here, in my opinion. Frozen Hudson Bay, eastern Canada snow cover and the Labrador Current mute the spring moderation. Then, suddenly, in mid June, those 3 cold sources moderate and without their dominating presence. boom, we are suddenly susceptible to high 80s and 90s without much buildup to these temps.”

  12. Good morning and thank you TK.

    58 here. Nice, but cool. I don’t mind this weather at all.
    Just keep the rain, drizzle and gloom out of here.

      1. Cloudy + cool/ chilly temps = miserable, even this time of year.

        Sun makes ALL the difference. 🙂

    2. I am kind of the “blacksheep” here. I absolutely love overcast & chilly days. 🙂

      1. I like the 65F-70F with dp in the low 60s, a light NE wind and plenty of low clouds kind of day following a backdoor front that breaks a summer heatwave. Really smell the scent of the ocean and marshes on these days.

      2. Generally, you can have them.
        ONE thing they are good for and that is fishing!!
        Far better results on those days over a bright and sunny day. 🙂

        1. I recall a friend of mine before saying that bright sunny days were never his best for fishing.

          1. Hahahaha. My dad told Chris snd me when very young rainy days were best because there was no sun. I suspected my mom didn’t want us trapped in the house.

  14. 12z operational GFS is not in support of sustained warmth. It advertises a brief warm-up early next week, as is expected per my forecast as well. It then puts our region in below average temperatures for the May 19-23 period.

  15. What a beautiful day! Made it to 68 here before dropping off a bit to the current reading of 64.

  16. Awesome evening on deck. First I will have dinner out. 61 with some clouds but mostly sun. Our oriole was in evidence today. And our bluebird house is full of babies chattering. We do have a house sparrow and they never shut up.

    https://imgur.com/a/VKg5INd

  17. Beautiful day. Nearly sunny start to finish. Not nearly as many diurnal clouds as I previously thought. I wonder what tomorrow will bring?

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