DAYS 1-5 (MAY 13-17)

As we head through mid May we are further away from the days of early spring which are often dominated by lingering Canadian cold, chilly ocean water, and a still fairly dynamic jet stream, and we are inching close to the days of summer which are characterized by a jet stream that is much weaker and often lifts itself at least over or many times north of our region. We’re in that transition time now. And the weather pattern will reflect it. There are no particularly strong surface features to impact the weather here during the next 5 days. What we will see through the weekend is daily diurnal cloud development, today from the lingering atmospheric conditions that triggered yesterday’s clouds and scattered showers, only today the clouds will not build enough to produce showers, as it is a tiny bit more stable with high pressure to our west edging a little bit closer. That high will never really “get here” as it sinks more to the south and allows an upper level disturbance to get a bit closer Friday then drift across the region during the weekend. These 3 days will feature an afternoon shower chance which runs at about 10% Friday, 30% Saturday, and 50% Sunday, but even with that 50/50 shot of passing showers Sunday afternoon, it’s not worth cancelling any outdoor plans for. Just keep an eye on the weather each of those days if you plan to be outside. By Monday, that disturbance will be beyond the region and we will see a slightly cooler, dry northerly air flow to start, which probably goes to an east or southeast wind during the day to the north of a frontal boundary which will have stretched out to our south. So while Monday will likely be free of any risk of rainfall, we may see an abundance of high and/or mid level cloudiness fanning into our area north of that boundary.

TODAY: Sunny start, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening, mostly clear overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny start, then partly sunny midday and afternoon with isolated afternoon showers possible. Highs 67-74 but cooler in some coastal areas. Wind NW up to 10 MPH but with some coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers. Highs 67-74 except cooler some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of ground fog forming. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny,. Scattered afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 60-67 coast, 68-75 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE to S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 18-22)

Current idea is one low pressure area passes well to the south early May 18 and a disturbance from the west may bring a shower or thunderstorm later. High pressure should dominate thereafter with fair and mild to warmer weather at least to start, but then have to watch for the possibility of cooler air arriving from the north or from the ocean, and possibly a shower threat again by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 23-27)

Best chance of wet weather around May 24-25 otherwise mostly dry with variable temperatures, not likely any significant departures from normal.