Friday May 14 2021 Forecast (7:35AM)

44 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 14-18)

Yesterday’s diurnal development of cumulus clouds did occur as expected, and the heaviest clouds were along a sea breeze boundary not far from the eastern coastline. Some larger clouds were also seen initially over the hilly terrain of southwestern NH and central MA in the late morning and midday with the help of the hills forcing the air upward. None of the clouds really built up enough for any showers yesterday, and any that did try to produce a few drops did not see them reach the ground due to the dry air in place. Today, we have a similar set-up but with a little more “oomph” available. This means that some of the clouds may pop enough to produce showers. Watch hilly areas and near any sea breeze boundary for the best chance. Also, if these occur late enough in the day, rainbows are possible as any showers exit to the east. Then sun must be below 45 degrees for most to be able to see a rainbow, with the bow being lower to the horizon when the sun is higher and taller rainbows occurring as the sun sinks toward the horizon. Anyway something to watch for! The weekend will be ok – not perfect, but not bad! We will have a couple disturbances coming by with more clouds, but still some sunshine, and both days run risk of seeing a few showers pop up. A frontal boundary and disturbance passing by to the south may bring more cloudiness early next week but any rainfall should stay to the south.

TODAY: Mostly sunny start, then partly sunny midday and afternoon with isolated to scattered afternoon showers. Highs 70-77 but cooler in some coastal areas. Wind NW up to 10 MPH but with some coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers. Highs 67-74 except cooler some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of ground fog forming. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers. Highs 60-67 coast, 68-75 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE to S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 62-69, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 19-23)

Trends indicate a mainly dry stretch with high pressure in control with temperatures not too far from seasonal normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 24-28)

A shot of some rainfall early in the period then back to mainly dry weather again. Temperatures variable, but no significant lasting departures from normal expected.

44 thoughts on “Friday May 14 2021 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  1. Thank you, TK.

    Great discussion — I never knew the connection between the clouds and the sea breeze boundary!

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    We certainly caught the clouds from the sea breeze boundary here mid-day yesterday. But overall, it was a beautiful day!

  6. Thank you, TK

    Amazing morning. No fire for this coffee on the deck. Last night was comfy too.

    At 3:30 am we were 37. At 8:45 we were 67. Quite a quick recovery.

  7. If I am reading correctly, I believe Logan has hit 70F at the 10am.

    This mild weather extends about up to James Bay, so its nice to see one of our cold source regions (SE and E Canada) moderating.

    I saw at one point yesterday, around mid afternoon, with a light SE wind at the buoy, the Boston Harbor Buoy temp briefly made it to nearly 55F. Probably a thin, top layer of the ocean. It is 51F this morning. Making a little progress there 🙂

    1. I’m surprised at Logan but sure makes me smile. We are at 70 even now. Breeze is pretty much nonexistent

  9. Thanks TK.

    We have yet to have a real warm overnight/early morning. Still has that taste of “late fall”, if you will.

    Those uncomfortable nights will certainly return eventually.

    1. I can’t really feel the “late fall” vibe at all. Not with the smell of blossoms constantly in the air. 🙂 This is classic New England spring weather if ever we’ve seen it.

      1. I can relate to both of your comments.

        Today and the mornings of yesterday and the day before feel/felt like spring.

        Last weeks low to mid 60s with mid 20s dew points and the afternoons yesterday and the day before when the cumulus clouds really took over, felt like fall coolness.

  11. I cant resist noting that the 12z GFS, at hr 192 or so, develops a tropical system, I believe, in the Gulf and landfalls it in the central Gulf.

    Probably wont be on the 18z run.

    Good think the tropical season starts May 15th now. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I thought I heard somewhere that there is a proposal to have no tropical season “per se”, but to continue it all year long from January 1 – December 31 of every year.

      1. I hadn’t heard that, but it’s possible.

        In some way, with the 2 hemispheres and their different seasons and the far western Pacific, the tropical season is active year round on the whole earth.

    2. Hurricane Season in the Atlantic is still June 1 to November 30. Nothing has “officially” changed. There is no proposal out there anywhere for a “year-round” tropical season. As was pointed out, different parts of the globe have their own seasons. The Western Pacific actually goes year-round.

      As for the system in the Gulf I posted this in the comments late last night:

      “It’s that time of year again – tropical season is upon us. We’ve already had a tropical storm in the eastern Pacific. Tropical Storm 3W is dissipating over the southern Philippines as I type. The models show the potential for another storm in the Western Pacific in a week to 10 days that could become a big one. A system will develop off the southwest coast of India in the next 24 hours. Models have it become a sub-940mb system this weekend, and it could become a threat to either western India (including Mumbai) or possibly Pakistan. Oh, and the GFS has a TD or weak TS in the Gulf of Mexico next weekend.”

  12. Sitting at 78 here in JP. Perhaps a degree or 2 high as my
    equipment is sitting in the sun. It has a radiation shield, but
    I fear the shield is a touch small.

    In any case, really nice, BUT there are numerous POP UP
    showers to the N&W, all moving this way.

    https://ibb.co/TP7V37f

        1. Beautiful photo! Is the Hancock still closed off to the public? Just wondering.

          I am referring to the Observation Deck.

      1. I dunno. Seems everytime I look at it lately, it is down!
        It may be a function of Weather Underground and not
        the Radar site itself.

        I suggest you pick up radrscope for you phone. It is weil!!! worth the $9.95 it cost.

          1. It is in the APP store. Most of you here have Ipones and yest it is in the Apple Play Store. I just checked as I have both Android and Iphone. It is $9.99.
            You will NOT be disappointed, trust me.

  13. Its only Friday and a lot can change in 5 – 6 days.

    As of today´s projections ….. 83F to 88F inland next Wednesday, not a huge projected gradient, so maybe upper 70s at the coast for a high before cooling off ???????????

    Signal for first shot of summer warmth advecting in over the top from SE Canada.

        1. That has back-door cold front written all over it. Somewhere in there it’s going to happen.

  15. While CPC has New England mostly in above normal temperatures for 6-10 & 8-14, take note that they are not high probabilities, which are much higher back through the Upper Mississippi Valley. Even parts of Maine are forecast for “normal”. When you see this set-up, and the one reflected in the medium range guidance, be prepared for at least 1 and possibly more than 1 back-door cold front, of course depending on the surface details. I suspect somewhere around May 20 (+ or – a handful of days) we are going to have an afternoon where Boston is in the 50s and Hartford is 80+.

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