Saturday May 15 2021 Forecast (7:45AM)

36 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19)

It’s time to make a few adjustments to the forecast, and they are generally good ones if you want more days with nice weather. Not that I had a forecast of bad weather every day – far from that. But today the shower threat comes out of the outlook as the atmosphere looks stable enough to prevent them. We’ll just see some cloud patches and otherwise lots of sun, with once again warmest weather away from the immediate shoreline. Sunday and Monday will be the days that feature the chance of pop up showers, and even a few thunderstorms, as we’ll have a couple disturbances drifting across the region with colder air aloft and a more unstable atmosphere. But neither of these days will be “rainy”. You will just have to watch for developing and passing showers especially during the afternoon hours each day. Anybody who does experience a shower or thunderstorm can see a briefly heavy downpour, but these will be isolated. When we get to Tuesday and Wednesday, high pressure dominates at the surface and aloft and you can expect fair weather, and that hint we started to see of rather warm weather last week for this period of time will indeed come to be, with many areas not having hit 80 yet doing so by Wednesday. There will be exceptions, of course – probably Cape Cod and the Islands…

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 73-80 but cooler some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light sea breezes in coastal locations.

TONIGHT: Clear to partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 70-77 except cooler in some coastal areas. Wind SW up to 10 MPH except light sea breezes developing in coastal locations.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 66-73 except cooler in some coastal areas. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72 coast, 73-80 inland. Wind S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast and 63-70 Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 20-24)

While high pressure aloft, centered west of the area, brings generally dry weather early to mid period, the region will be vulnerable to the passage of a back door cold front and influence from high pressure in far eastern Canada, which would cool the region down especially in coastal areas. The transition out of that cool-down toward an attempted warm-up could bring some rainfall by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 25-29)

Trend back to drier. Any warm up may be thwarted by another cooler air mass from eastern Canada. Too early to really pick out details but the general pattern from the previous period will still be in place as it appears.

36 thoughts on “Saturday May 15 2021 Forecast (7:45AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    It isn’t even 9 AM and it is already 72 at Logan! YIKES!

  4. Thank you, TK. I’m hearing from the grandkids that the pool is going up today. That water is going to be mighty chilly for a while with some of the nights in the 40s

    1. Sounds fun ! For the 3-4 ft above ground pool we used to have, I would dump a couple pots of warm water in the pool if my daughters said it was cold and then proclaim, ¨all set¨ ! I don´t think it changed the temp any. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  7. Thanks TK.

    Gee, is it safe to put away my winter coat now? 😉

    Living in Boston, a winter coat can still feel mighty good in the first weeks of spring, in between warm days.

  8. Logan has already sprung a sea breeze. 🙂

    SSE wind at 5 mph and temp down to 70.
    72 here in JP.

    Ocean is at 52, which is about 3 degrees above average.

    1. At least the sea breeze will become more and more negligible in the coming weeks. No need for any more thick coats. 🙂

  9. Well so much for no showers today.
    Granted, they are only isolated but there are a couple of downpours near the South Coast.

  10. Pretty good East wind at the airport at 14 mph. Temp there
    68.

    Down to 72 here after making it to 78.

  11. The visible satellite loop is awesome today. It shows the seabreeze circulation nicely. You can essentially visualize the upward motion and cumulus development on its leading edge and downward motion and cumulus dissipation further to the east. A broad side view of this process in time-lapse would be awesome to see!

  12. Now down to 64 at the airport.
    79 here in JP. 15 degrees difference over about 5-6 miles.

    Oh, pretty juicy cell near Middleboro.

        1. Almost warm enough for swimming.

          I swam at Nauset beach one summer when the water temperature was only 53 degrees. Brrrrr

  13. The seabreezes are definitely not localized today. They are pretty regional.

  14. As I sit out….yes, yet again….a heron flew over, baby blue birds are chirping in the bluebird house while dad and a sibling from last year feed them, a hummingbird is having its dinner just feet from me, a Turkey is nibbling on discarded bird seed below the bird feeder, cotton ball clouds are dotting a brilliant blue sky

    What a beautiful world ….

  15. Thanks TK.

    Toasty day on the softball fields today in eastern CT. Wish I had worn shorts. Cloud development this afternoon was minimal and highs pushed 80 in most places away from the shore.

    3 year anniversary today from the severe weather outbreak in CT and SE NY that resulted in a few 100mph plus wind reports, baseball size hail, and multiple tornadoes.

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1393543663695826951?s=21

    https://twitter.com/nwsalbany/status/1393579709812912131?s=21

  18. All the ingredients came together for that severe weather outbreak 3 years ago today. I was fortune the tornado stayed south of me and all I got was rain. For me July 10 1989 is the biggest severe weather outbreak of my life so far.

  19. Thanks, TK…

    Had a lightning strike and the rumble of thunder in a tiny cell about five miles to our east (around Raynham) mid-day. A couple of drops of a shower here about the same time.

  20. Thank you, TK!

    Had a 10 minute shower on my bike ride today in southeastern Massachusetts. Very minor. Sea breeze kicked in after that. All in all a fine spring day. We’ve had many of them.

    I’m now watching the Bruins – Capitals game. Difficult match-up for the B’s, in my opinion.

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