The Week Ahead (December 26-January 1)

138 Comments

6:46PM (editted at 7AM) to remove the overnight info.

Down the home stretch for 2011…

I hope all of you celebrating Christmas had a wonderful holiday!

Monday, we’ll see fair but windy and chilly weather as the energy moving offshore ignites an ocean storm. This storm will be too far out to threaten us with any precipitation. This storm will also race off to the northeast and be gone rather quickly, but this will make way for another storm approaching from the southwest on Tuesday. This rather strong package of energy is expected to cross the region in the form of deepening low pressure, cutting across southern and central New England, the center passing west of  Boston Tuesday night. This will bring a healthy period of rain starting during the day Tuesday and as we get into the warm sector in greater Boston we will see rain showers and even a chance of thunderstorms at night. As the low departs in the early morning hours of Wednesday, cold air will flow back into the region, and snow showers may whiten the ground in some locations. We’ll have to watch for a quick freeze-up of some wet surfaces as well. During the daylight hours of Wednesday, other than a few isolated snow showers, expect a dry but very windy day.

Thursday will be an in-between-systems day, with fair weather chilly air, and a diminishing wind. The last 2 days of 2011 (Friday & Saturday) will see the next low pressure system affecting the region. This one looks weaker. Its associated warm front may produce some light snow or mix on Friday, and as it gets beyond the region and starts to intensify heading toward the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday, New Year’s Eve, expect gusty winds and a chance of snow showers.

A look ahead to New Year’s Day (Sunday) reveals a tranquil start to 2012.

Detailed Boston Area Forecast…

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. High 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 30-35 early then rising back toward 40 overnight. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, becoming heavy at times during the afternoon. High 45-50. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain early, then rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms through late evening, followed by scattered rain showers changing to snow showers from west to east overnight. Temperature rising into the 50s early then dropping to a low 30-35 by dawn. Wind SE 10-20 MPH shifting to SW with gusts up to 30 MPH in the evening, then shifting to W at similar speeds later at night.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. High 35-40. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH possible.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix. Low 25. High 38.

SATURDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 36.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

138 thoughts on “The Week Ahead (December 26-January 1)”

  1. Thanks for the update TK. It looks like the thunderstorm index will be brought out for one final time in 2011. Thunderstorm Index at a 1 Tuesday night into Wednesday since I am not expecting severe weather. Best chances for thunder look to be across Southeastern New England.
    UGH meter at 10 for that system as once again we will be on the mild side.

    1. Happy one year anniversary. Its amazing how the time goes by.
      TK thanks for setting this blog up. Its been great to be able to share thoughts on the weather sports or whatever and everyone
      is respectful of each other’s opinions and it is troll free blog!

  3. For fun lets guess when the first plowable storm of 2012 will happen. And will winter snow this year be above or below. I would suggest we put this in now to be fair. Winner gets bragging rights. Storm would need to effect most areas.

    1. I had the feeling we would just miss it as we called for plowable snow for December. So you guess 1/2. You still need to guess above,below or average. And also please remind us what the average amount is. Merry Christmas TK. And job well done with this blog.

  6. Happy one year anniversary TK! 🙂

    Just curious…did you set up this blog mainly due to the trolls over on the WBZ blog?

    Thank you so much for inviting us over here. 🙂

    1. I was planning on setting up a blog before I started posting at WBZ 2 years ago. It just took me a while. And the credit goes to my wife and her best friend who are the tech geeks that hang around here and do all that kind of stuff for me.

        1. Heyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

          Ive been using “word processors” since the redactron and Wang cam out with mag tapes. Back in mid-70s. I live for tech stuff

  8. He would be a good addition as well as WeatherWizard.
    One year ago today we were on the eve of a Major Noreaster and blizzard watches were up for parts of SNE. What a difference a year makes.

    1. Mr. Noyes may show up. You never know. Barry will make a post soon I’m sure. Coastal if you are reading this, you can again invite WW & BM to come on over.

      1. Tk I know this may be asking for alot but don’t you know some people from ch5. I just enjoy Harvey so much and his entire weather team. Sure would be awesome to have some tv mets here.

  9. Congrats on 1 yr TK !! Great site !!! John, below avg…..I’ll go with my regime change date of Jan. 29th for first plowable snow.

    1. You are sticking with it. I love It. Seems 1/2- 1/3 has been talked about today not just here. Do you see that. I am going to guess just above and still thinking on the date, will have in tonight. Hope you had a great day.

  13. I hope everyone had a great day. We had Christmas snow flurries on and off all morning. My brother lives in Weare NH and was skiing sunappe this morning. He’s on the ski patrol – said it was ok but by time he left not great. He also said j
    He passed a pond in Bradford NH where a group was out skating. It’s in wooded area and is about 60 x 60. He was surprised it was frozen enough

  15. TK. Congrats on the blog. I knew a very good friend of Harvey Leonards way back. Not sure if they are still friends so can’t help there I do know pete b loosely but there doesn’t seem to be the interest

      1. Thanks John. You too. I’m anxious for restaurant suggestions in your area. I saw one called Christines. Any feedback?? my husband said someone he works with at clean harbors recommended the place where Boca used to be. We liked Boca and were surprised it went out of business

        1. I’m not to crazy about it. Been there like twice. There is a nice place in Marshfield called the Fairview, it is at the water in BrantRock section. Price is somewhat high but a nice night out for you and your husband. British beer in Pembroke is good for pizza and home style food. Satuit tavern in Scituate is good, small place. Tsangs in Hanover is good. The 99 in Pembroke is very good. Poppsies in Pembroke is good for beer and pizza. And I heard The Brimstone tavern in Pembroke is good. That is where the old winery was or Bobby Hackets once was there. Have not been there but have friends who have gone. I will get you more.

              1. PJ’s country kitchen on 3A just after crossing the north river, Barker Tavern in Scituate (Pricey, but worth it every once in a great while)…is it called the Milestone or millstone on Rte 3A down in Duxbury……

                1. Tom my parents loved PJs. The hostess knew my mom they went there so often. Thanks for reminding me. I got a groupon for $30 that is good for $60 at barker tavern a while ago. We haven’t been there in a few years. Thank you both

  16. Somebody just posted on the wbz blog saying we will be getting a big snow event that would be bigger than last 12/26. Is that why TK and Hadi you are going with 1/2. The person mentioned that date. Do you guys see that at all. I don’t really go over there that much but When I saw the BM post I have gone back to see if he is there posting.

    1. I was going to see if there is a chance of a big storm between 1/1 and 1/7. We will need to make arrangements for someone to plow our driveway. Neighbors keep an eye on house and we have an alarm but we prefer not to let it look too empty

      1. From what I have seen today, there are no snow events expected anytime soon. Temps are going to be well above normal coast-to-coast through early January…mid-January at the very earliest IMO for any pattern change. I am puzzled as to what TK sees on 1/2/12.

        Vicki…sorry, was the word “rare” a bit too strong? 🙂

        1. I had put a prediction poll out, I hope you will join in. Tk and Hadi predict 1/2 for first 2012 plowable storm. I was on wbz and saw this posting and he as well was in that timeframe. Could have been troll for all I know.

          1. I’ll go with 1/23. My parents anniversary :). John are you keeping track or do you want me to? I’m not back to work till tues so may need a reminder to set up database

            1. LOL. We always do that. I just sent you a post, so funny. If you don’t mind yes please do. You need to answer 2nd part as well. Thank’s Vicki.

            1. That part I got. but will snowfall be above, below or average for the winter. No number just one of those three.

              1. We may end up with a storm to remember, but I’ve changed my tune based on the stubbornness of the pattern to date, so I’ll go with BELOW.

        2. Hahahaha. I was teasing You are right that it is more unusual for a female to be techy. In the mid-70s it was unheard of. But I was a tomboy as a kid and in my 20s loved muscle cars and math and all things that were pre-tech

          So warm days and night fires on beach are the order of the day for January. Fun!

    1. What does it say. One of the tv mets made some mention of that today but I was in another room and did not get it all. Maybe it was not a troll.

    3. I’ll just label it has a potential storm for that date, and being in a different pattern by then, Precip type may be an issue.

      1. Scott do you see snow sticking in Boston tonight. I know It’s raining now but heard it may change. Heading to bed soon but will try to wait for your response.

      2. Scott, even if that storm were to verify, I see rain inside I-495 with heavy snow only for the distant interior. “Maybe” some snow at the very tail end for Boston.

        2. Scott…I’ll take some of my thoughts back. Still rain for inside 495 and heavy snow anywhere outside 495. I forgot about the 540 line. That low is way too close to the coast for my taste especially the way this winter is going right now.

  20. No way any of us can detect precip type at this point for 1/3 rather like scott said its something to watch which is the fun part of all of this!!

  22. First plowable snowfall for Boston – 1/12
    Average Snowfall for the season.
    I think Feb and March will make up for Dec and the first half of Jan.

  23. It was the first time in 11 years that my grandparents had no snow on the ground for christmas day.
    first plowable snowfall january 15th
    would around average snowfall be considered because i think it could be within 10 inches either way.
    I have a feeling that late winter storms will effect us like shotime says, i also think we can see some snow in early april since i think mother nature might be behind by a month. 🙂 I also went by wachusett mountain It looks good to ski on and if anyone goes to nashoba they were making snow. I hope what the models are saying for new years eve is wrong because i am having a party , I do not want rain.

  24. No hoping 🙂 this winter will start late and spring will be here early and my gut tells me March will be like we remember the last 3yrs.

  25. It will be interesting to see how much of the region closes in on 60F for a few hrs very late Tuesday night/very early Wed Morning……

    I just dont buy any scenario right now of any clipper tracking in such a way, that it either passes just south of New England or transfers its energy to a location for east coast cyclogenesis in a favorable snow producing location……. I think the path is through the St. Lawrence River Valley, giving us occasional 45F to 50F days with periodic cold front passages.

  26. Today itself brings a 17 second light gain. With the changing time of solar noon, the breakdown is a 22 second later sunrise and a 39 second later sunset. On the clear evenings, one may begin to notice a subtle small difference in twilight lasting a bit closer to 4:45pm that wasnt there a few weeks ago.

  27. For the first plowable snowfall for Boston – 1/21/12.

    I am going out on a limb here – I think we will have a higher than average snowfall this year.

    I agree with shotime that Feb. and March will make up for Dec. and Jan. but whatever snow we get will be a lot. I see at least 2 blockbuster snowstorms in Feb./March. Possibly even into April.

  29. Maybe the storm for 1/3 will be the real kicker in terms of getting us out of this anomalous pattern, 00z EURO hinting at western Canada ridging toward the end of the run. And you got the stratospheric warming…

  31. 0Z Euro has an Inside Runner for 1/3-1/4:

    12Z GFS coming out now. There is time, but given the pattern we are in, I’d wager
    IF there is a system, it would be an inside runner.

    1. 12Z GFS has NOTHING 1/3 or 1/4. Has a weak clipper system for 1/2.
      So I don’t know what’s up. at least the GFS is not currently showing a big storm for that time frame. It’s a long way out for sure…

    1. Looking over the 12G GFS, it looks quiet except for a clipper or 2.
      Yawn…… Things can change, but it doesn’t look very active. Btw, NAO still not
      looking great either. Oh well. Not much we can do about it, is there? lol

  34. Since the 12z GFS did not have any sign of a storm around 1/3, the part of the run after that may be off completely…

      1. It’s just the end of the 00z EURO really hinted at us going into a completely different pattern. Can’t tell if it was showing -NAO though, but it did have significant western Canada ridging, which is what we really need. Then again it’s only one run.

  36. I think the 12z GFS is believable. Whether its a big storm or a clipper, they all are projected to track west (big storm) or north (clipper) of New England. Tues night storm on 12z GFS now looks like its headed for western New England, if not Albany, NY. This isnt good to ber very good for ski country either.

  37. Through yesterday, Logan is sitting at +5.1F for the month. Figure maybe +3 or 4F today….then, maybe +10F for Tuesday….The real fun wildcard anomoly could play out in the first few hours of Wednesday morning. If the full effect of the warm sector hits then, then Wednesday has a shot at maybe +12 to +15F……I think the November mark to beat is +5.4 ???….its going to be close.

  38. today and tonight clear highs in the upper30s lows in the low20s
    tuesday increasing clouds with an islolated late day rain shower highs in the mid 40s
    tuesday night . Hievy rain .5 to 1 inch of rain possible temperatures rising into the low 50s then dropping inot the 40s late.
    wednesday becoming sunny chance of a morning shower highs in the low 40s dropping though out the afternoon . temps in the 20s by late afternoon
    thursday sunny highs in the low 30s
    thursday night becoming cloudy with lows in the upper 10s to low 20s
    friday cloudy highs in the upper 30s
    last day of 2011 it will be cloudy with a chance of a rain or snow shower.
    new years eve night cloudy with a chance of a snow shower or two. should be done before fire work displays as of now.
    new years day it looks dry with highs in the upper 30s
    have a good day as my family thinks as the 26 as 25 and a half as we never open all the gifts in one day. its like a second christmas. 🙂

  39. upper 30s for Jan 1 – a bit nippy for the troops who take a dip that day –

    Tom I can’t remember how to find ocean temps – how do they compare to average years?

  40. I have to disagree yet again with Weather Wizard’s idea of a snowstorm January 1-12. The NAO is destined to remain positive through mid-January but as of today’s data the trend towards negative is now definitely there, but not until mid month.

    Even Joe Joyce on his morning blog is going with a mid-January change…he obviously has been reading my posts over here, Lol. 🙂

    WW definitely knows weather…no doubt in my mind, but I don’t understand him rushing the pattern change. That SE ridge is going to still be lurking even when it does finally break down IMO.

    1. Are you buying into a negative nao mid to late month?

      How often is the nao forecast correct? Could it tank before it is indicated?

      1. The NAO forecast is generally good, but has been not-so-good in this pattern. That said, a period of -NAO is likely soon. I don’t think we are going to see a long term -NAO, however. I think it is heading for a more long term nearly neutral, or flip-flop, kind of pattern as we head into mid winter. I’ve had to rethink my ENTIRE long range forecast after having it decimated by the persistent weak La Nina (and other factors) SE ridge.

        1. TK…do you believe that the SE ridge will be with us for all practical purposes through early spring? I have been saying all along that it will never really totally leave, just break down a bit at times.

          1. As long as La Nina is there, it will be a frequent player. To what degree, however, depends on other factors as well.

  42. I hope WeatherWizard is right and when we turn the calendar to January winter will begin. Think Snow Everyone!!!

  43. The 12z EURO is looking really good at the end of the run, it’s consistent with the 00z run, which is good. The GFS is clueless with this pattern change.

  44. Hopefully the trend is your friend will apply here but winter looks to be not showing up this week and maybe all of next week as well.

  45. One could make an argument right now that between all the GFS runs today so far the 06z is the best one, and that a verification somewhere between its offshore solution and the Euro’s inside solution for the storm just after New Year’s Day may be an early way to lean. One could even infer measurable snow on January 2 if that solution were to verify. My prediction is not dead yet! And yes I STILL think Boston may squeeze out a small amount of measurable snow Friday and/or Saturday of this week.

  47. I am hoping your wrong on the dud Charlie.
    One year ago today we had a major Noreaster which went into the 27th.

  48. Lets see where we are end of January first week of February in terms of snowfall before saying this winter is a dud. To me way to early to make that call.

  49. To me these types of winter end up throwing some major surprises. As Charlie or Phillip said the other day we only average 6 inches of snow in December so too early to call it a dud. Now come first week of February and we have little or no snow to speak of them I would agree 100%.

    1. It is WAY too early. And in some of the quieter overall winters sit some of our larger snowstorms. Always possible too.

  51. On a happy note, between the insurance money and christmas gifts, I was able to replace all my tools that were stolen plus a new table saw. I’m esctatic!

    So if you have any projects you need down around the house, from bathrooms to decks, I’m your man. My work is impeccable and to cost down I use duct tape instead of nails and screws. 🙂

  53. The all mighty Barry Burbank mentioned the stratospheric warming in his most recent blog. I’m becoming quite optimistic to how January will turn out.

      1. This time around it’s going to weaken it, then it will restrengthen somewhat, perhaps ending up in a different position.

        1. Thanks Scott…….is it better for us weakened or strengthened ? I’d think thus far this year, it must be displaced further north than normal.

          1. I’m not sure about how the strength impacts our weather.
            I believe it’s further north than we would like in terms of getting the snow.

  54. I think tomorrow night should be quite interesting with respect to temps, wind and possible convection on the cold front. Now with the storm traveling up through far western New England/eastern New York State, I wonder if low 60s are possible for an hour or two just prior to cold front passage. If that happens and the cold front crosses at say 1am, with the way high temps are recorded in climatic data, its possible locations could record hi temps of 60F or a little better for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

    1. Just speaking as a home owner who is actually looking to remodel my own basement. I would carry $30 to $65 a square foot for the basement. My project consists of adding a full bath, taking two window wells and increasing them to leagal egress windows, plus a open area all consisting of 500 sq ft. It turns out to be $30 per square foot if I was to do it. It all depends on the finishes and the existing condition of your basement.

  57. As for Barry’s blog discussion of stratospheric warming, I looked the term up in Wikepedia and it is actually called “Sudden Stratospheric Warming”. From what I can understand, stratospheric warming occurs out of the blue without warning and there is no current technology to predict precisely when it will occur. Therefore, my prediction of the pattern change in mid-January is just as good as anyone elses at this point. Who knows…it may not happen until February or March for all we know.

    TK, Scott & others…do I have this concept basically correct?

    1. There is evidence that it is associated with a QBO phase shift, but which one causes which, if either? I do know that sudden stratospheric warming leads to polar vortex breakdown and the ability of arctic air to move further south.

  58. Good morning, it appears not much has changed since the last time I was here, now that we are entering 2012 with still 0 snowfall, I got a letter in the mail and this was the 2nd time since the year 2000 that my lawn guy has sent letters to everyone stating that if this mild and snow free winter continues that the company will be out in 6 weeks possible being out on my property the middle to end of Feb, this is crazy, there’s no ice not even a thin layer of ice on the pond that usually there’s at least 5 or 6 family’s on there skating when I drive by, where’s the snow??

  60. Hope you all had a great weekend.

    Cool stats from Taunton this morning on climate huh. Looks like we’re going to challenge some records for warmth and lack of snow foe December in most areas.

Comments are closed.